Considering Justin Verlander on Short Rest
Justin Verlander has never started a game on short rest in the way we conventionally think about short rest starts. Back in 2011, Verlander started Game 1 of the ALDS against the Yankees, but the game was suspended after one inning; he then started Game 3 of that series on two days’ rest. In 2017, Verlander started Game 1 of the ALDS against Boston, pitching six innings and throwing 99 pitches. He followed that start up with 2.2 innings of relief pitching after three days’ rest. Neither appearance really fits what we might expect to see from Verlander today when he starts on three days’ rest after pitching seven shutout innings on Friday.
Even if we add a history of Verlander making starts on short rest, given the very small number of starts and the huge time gap between them, it wouldn’t be especially relevant. Similarly, that Dallas Keuchel just fared poorly on short rest against the Cardinals probably also doesn’t have much bearing on what Verlander manages. The same is true for other pitchers over the last dozen years. There just isn’t a great body of evidence to tell us what we might see over the course of one game. What we do know is that Verlander is pitching a day earlier than he normally would, and that probably has some effect on his body and arm.
For the sake of argument, let’s say that pitching on short rest makes Verlander slightly weaker as a pitcher. We don’t know this to be the case, but it is certainly possible. And we can make another assumption that Verlander being slightly weaker means that his fastball won’t be as hard as it would be typically. Verlander’s fastball averaged 94.6 mph this season and in his start on Friday, it averaged 94.5 mph. If we wanted to know how Verlander might pitch on short rest, we could look at starts where his average fastball velocity was something less than his season-long average.
There were 10 Verlander starts this season where his fastball averaged 94.4 mph or lower. Here’s how he fared in those outings compared to the rest of his starts in which his fastball averaged at least 94.5 mph or more:
| High Velo Start | Low Velo Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starts | 24 | 10 | NA |
| IP/G | 6.2 | 6 | -0.2 |
| AVG FA Velocity | 94.8 | 93.7 | -1.1 |
| K% | 38.3% | 28.0% | -10.3 |
| BB% | 4.1% | 7.1% | 3.0 |
| HR/9 | 1.44 | 1.48 | -0.04 |
| FIP | 2.96 | 4.09 | -1.13 |
| ERA | 2.49 | 2.82 | -0.33 |
In 10 starts with diminished velocity, Verlander’s strikeout rate went down significantly, his walks shot up, and his FIP was merely above average instead of great, with a slight downturn in ERA. He also got two fewer outs on average. Four of the low-velocity starts were in April, but even if we remove those starts we see similar results:
| High Velo Start | Low Velo Start Total | Low Velo Starts Since April | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starts | 24 | 10 | 6 |
| IP/G | 6.2 | 6.0 | 6.0 |
| AVG FA Velocity | 94.8 | 93.7 | 94.1 |
| K% | 38.3% | 28.0% | 28.6% |
| BB% | 4.1% | 7.1% | 6.4% |
| HR/9 | 1.44 | 1.48 | 1.51 |
| FIP | 2.96 | 4.09 | 4.00 |
| ERA | 2.49 | 2.82 | 3.03 |
In any given game, a range of outcomes are fairly reasonable for Verlander, but if his velocity is off a tick, we should expect a little bit worse performance. When the options are Jose Urquidy plus the bullpen and then Verlander in Game 5 on regular rest if needed versus a short-rest Verlander and a full rest Gerrit Cole in Game 5 if needed, the potential drop off for Verlander in Game 4 is probably worth it given Cole’s presence. The move could backfire today and still be the right choice, but it isn’t fair to expect normal-rest Verlander in tonight’s game.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
Interesting. Good research here, Craig.
In my opinion the Astros might be better off saving Verlander for Friday. Yes, you maybe very slightly increase your chances in Game 4 by starting Verlander, but probably not by much given that he’s starting on short rest and that Urquidy is no slouch.
You are however giving up the opportunity of piggybacking Cole and Verlander on Friday.
If we’re just looking at increasing the Astros’ chance of making it to the ALCS, I would think that the difference from Cole + bullpen to Cole + Verlander in Game 5 is larger than Urquidy + bullpen to Verlander (short rest) + bullpen in Game 4.
Especially given the fact that Cole just threw nearly 120 pitches on Saturday.
There is no game on Friday.
My go to assumption is that everything the Astros touch turns to gold, so I’m sure he’ll be dominant.
Wouldn’t Gerrit Cole also be on short rest?
Cole would be on regular rest due to the off day between games 4 and 5 – Cole started Game 2 on a Saturday, and Game 5 would be played on Thursday.
Ah right, the off-day. I can’t count. If it goes to game 5 it will really mess up the rotation against the Yankees. But gotta get there first I guess.
The hypothetical rotation order wouldn’t be that messed up against the Yankees if the Astros win the LDS in 5 games. The ALCS starts on Saturday, so the Astros would be set up for Greinke Game 1, Verlander Game 2, and Cole Game 3, all on normal 4 days of rest. Those 3 are then set up to pitch potential Games 5 through 7 of the ALCS in that same order, again on normal rest.
The only way that I see the Astros’ rotation being really messed up for the ALCS would have been if they saved both Cole and Verlander for Game 5 of the ALDS and then had them both pitch enough in Game 5 that neither is available to start Game 2 of the ALCS on 2-days’ rest. (Assuming, of course, that there is a Game 5 of the ALDS and that the Astros win that Game 5.)
Great analysis! After seeing Keuchel struggle a bit yesterday in the Braves’ GM 4 loss, I was wondering how much of a dropoff to expect from JV.
You just got no business at all short-resting your starting pitchers this early into the playoffs. Given that you don’t short-rest any starter other than a real stud, the overall evidence is clear. They lose effectiveness. Bullpen any game where you don’t really like your starter, then leave your studs on schedule until you get to the World Series.
Great article, and thanks for actually showing the other side. All we heard before the game was how Verlander dominated game 1, no one actually said how hard 3 days rest is. And I give you tremendous credit for the foreshadow.
As I understand it, it was Verlander who asked to pitch Game 4 rather than Hinch going to him. It probably matters. Why panic over Game 4 when you have Houston’s pitching? Game 4 was not an elimination game for the ‘Stros. (Are the ‘Stros to the point where they panic when they’re only ahead 2 games to 1?) Urquidy was available. What does V’s wanting to pitch Game 4 say about his confidence in the other members of the pitching staff? In particular, V’s confidence in Urquidy? It’s not a good vibe. The Astros absolutely DID NOT need to start Verlander in Game 4, and for that reason they shouldn’t have. It doesn’t matter that they have a pitcher as good as V to start Game 5. It’s the message the move sent.