Daily Prospect Notes: 6/1
Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.
Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto (Profile)
Level: Low-A Age: 19 Org Rank: 10 Top 100: NR
Line: 3-for-4, HR
Notes
Now at .381/.458/.619 on the year, the Bo Bichette I saw as an amateur looks like the outlier and not the one who was arguably the best prospect at some later showcases before the draft. While Bichette’s style of hitting violates Lansing noise ordinances, his feel for contact and hand-eye coordination are sublime and he has plus-plus bat speed. Bichette is also showing a measured two-strike approach. He’s making a case for top-100 consideration, even though he’s unlikely to stay at short.
Colton Welker, 3B, Colorado (Profile)
Level: Low-A Age: 19 Org Rank: 20 Top 100: NR
Line: 3-for-4, HR, 2 BB
Notes
Welker was scorching hot during spring training and has continued to mash during the season’s first two months. He generates plus raw power with his hulking uppercut swing, has plus bat speed, and performs a very aggressive weight transfer that throws most of his body back into the baseball during contact. He’s a bit stiff and might eventually move to first base, but he has the power to profile there and he’s showing more advanced bat-to-ball ability than scouts anticipated based on early pro looks. He’s just 19 and hitting .370 in full-season ball.
Shed Long, 2B, Cincinnati (Profile)
Level: Hi-A Age: 21 Org Rank: 5 Top 100: HM
Line: 2-for-4, HR, 2 BB, 2 SB
Notes
Some scouts still aren’t sold on Long, who’s now slugging .528 in the FSL. His defense still needs polish and he’s striking out a lot, but he generates good power on contact and only recently moved out from behind the plate and onto the infield. Power at a premium defensive position is rare, and Long should at least have that while also providing some speed.
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Notes from Eastern Pennsylvania
I saw Yankees RHP Chance Adams‘ six-inning, 12-strikeout performance in the morning. Adams sat 93-96 with a hard, above-average upper-80s slider in the 85-88 mph range with short movement. He used the slider heavily throughout the outing and mixed it well with a sweeping, low-80s curveball that was also above average. Adams worked almost exclusively with those three pitches to his glove side for much of his start, spotting his fastball away from a righty-heavy Columbus lineup, then working his slider just off the plate and finishing hitters with the curveball down and away. He carved for four innings like this before struggling to find effective sequences in the final two frames. He has mid-rotation stuff but has had issues with fastball control this year and major-league hitters are quickly going to adjust to Adams’ stubborn style of pitching.
Adams’ fastball can miss bats up above the zone, but he struggles to command it to any area other than away from righties. He showed some ability to throw his curveball for strikes, twice going to it when he was behind in the count, and I think he should pitch backward with it more often as he sees hitters for a second and third time. There are scouts who think Adams is the starter for whom the Yankees have been shopping around, but I think he needs one more sequence to get there and probably a better changeup. (I saw two yesterday, both were fringey.) He may require a promotion to develop these as his stuff is too good for Triple-A hitters, especially ones as disinterested as Columbus’s looked yesterday.
Shortstop Gleyber Torres had an ugly day at the plate and in the field, where he played one game at second base and another at third. He looks fine physically and just played a sloppy game one both sides of the ball.
I drove from Scranton to Reading for a second doubleheader, this one between Boston and Philadelphia’s Double-A affiliates. The headliner prospect in that game was Red Sox 3B Rafael Devers who, like Torres, had some hiccups. He swung helplessly over the top of several offspeed pitches, had mixed defensive footwork over at third (though his arm strength is incredible, I have a 7 on it), and literally fell on his face while trying to score on what should have been an easy sacrifice fly. Again, like Torres, Devers looks totally fine from a tools standpoint. His bat speed is intact, and he has impressive straight-line speed for his size; he was just goofed by Reading’s starters last night, both of whom survive on liberally mixing in offspeed stuff.
Much ado has been made about the start Phillies 2B Scott Kingery has enjoyed. Already an outstanding prospect because of his bat-to-ball skills, plus-plus speed, and potentially elite defense at second base, Kingery is among pro baseball’s home-run leaders. Kingery was visibly frustrated after offering at several pitches down near his shoes (most of them breaking balls) and missing the few opportunities he had to drive the ball, but I was looking for substantive mechanical or physical change that would indicate his increased power output this season is legitimate. Kingery has changed the way he strides. Last season — during the summer and in Fall League — he was drawing his front knee back toward his body and then bringing it back to earth as he swung and often long before. Now, he’s simply striding forward toward the pitcher with no recoil. His base is a bit wider on contact, and I think the change in incorporating Kingery’s lower half into his swing a bit more. While I don’t think the early-season home-run pace Kingery has displayed is sustainable, I do think he’s made some improvements that will lead to more game power than I previously had projected.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
Adams has always been a favorite of mine. Rare for guys to get better once being moved out of the pen but the dude just kept getting strikeouts.
The A+/AA results are eye popping and he finished top 30 in swinging strike% among all minor league starters in 2016.
It’s nice to be able to mix in some more info of the qualitative variety to the results. On paper he looks like an elite prospect (22yo in AAA with 32% K% and 8% BB% 2.57 FIP) but nice to see some dissonance.
I like how fast he works too. Clocked him at 15s between the first two pitches in the video.
These are great reports. In return for the superb content, I will bite you. (I concede this is not an entirely fair trade.)
On Bichette: “He’s making a case for top-100 consideration.”
He’s probably the second best prospect in Lansing, but I think you’ve got an extra zero on that. Yeah, the best comp looks like Byron Buxton, but the Byron Buxton class of prospect runs hellaciously better than Byron.
Bo Bichette was safely a top-100 prospect pre-season, and I think he’s a top-30 prospect now. Please point at me and laugh if I turn out to be wrong.
(Side note: Swing mechanics are a real thing that coaches can help with. Prospecting guys with sufficient performance data on swing mechanics is worthless, though. That’s a bold claim and requires better proof than I’m willing to provide, but Bo Bichette’s another data point to see who is right on this.)
Think you need to see a bit more than what’s amounted to not quite a full year yet from a guy before he’s a top 10 unless he’s a heralded guy (like Moncada – and he played for years in Cuba).
So where would you peg Kingery’s power now vs before. It seems like going into the season he was maybe a low double digit HR guy, are we now thinking high teens?
That with a good average and a bushel of stolen bases isn’t anything to sneeze at 🙂
Ian Kinsler
Just perusing Kingery’s FG batted ball profile
He’s currently second in the Eastern League in fly ball % (53%) and tied for third in the EL in HR/FB (19.3%). It’s a bit unclear to me how much a change in HR/FB should be considered a skill, but it seems to be a positive change. Both ratios have increased substantially from 2016. FB% around 41% last year and HR/FB around 3%.
It’s interesting to read mechanical changes have accompanied the changes in his batted ball profile.
http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/hrs/
Bichette’s swing looks nothing like that weird thing that he had in your other video. I can see why he’s probably doing better now.
The foul-off about a third of the way through Bichette’s video is positively Baezian.
And the uniforms of the opposing team are positively… something.
Eric, true or false, your mother did in fact wear that tail out.
Eric, was your “that can’t be right” comment regarding Kingery’s 3.83 home to first because you possibly messed up the timing on the stop watch or more of a “wow” comment on his speed?