Evan White Gets Long-Term Security, Potentially Gives Up Millions
The Mariners have reportedly signed first base prospect Evan White to a six-year, $24 million deal with three club options that, if exercised, mean the deal will max out at nine years and $55.5 million.
White, who will turn 24 in April of next year, was ranked fourth in the Mariners system and 77th in baseball overall on our midseason 2019 prospect list. When we wrote the Mariners list, we described White by saying:
We now have a full season of data to help us figure out whether Evan White’s weird profile is going to play. A plus-running, backwards guy (he bats right and throws left, a generally unfavorable combination due to the defensive limitations and platoon issues caused by both) who plays plus defense at first base, White was slugging .391 at the start of August, which is rather uninspiring for a college hitter in the Cal League. By the end of the month, however, White had 30 hits in 90 plate appearances and was slugging .763.
He has made subtle changes to his lower half, drawing his front knee back toward his rear hip more than he did at Kentucky, and taking a longer stride back toward the pitcher. White is more often finishing with a flexed front leg, which has helped him go down and lift balls in the bottom part of the strike zone by adjusting his lower half instead of his hands. White looked good during the Arizona Fall League, too, squelching some concern that he was just a polished college hitter beating up on Cal League pitching. He’s one of the more bizarre players in the minors.
We’ve been down this road a number of times lately, with varying amounts of guaranteed money, length, track record, and quality of player. This site wasn’t crazy about the Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies extensions last year from a labor perspective; last offseason, Eloy Jiménez signed another big deal, albeit one that was slightly more player-friendly. A number of clubs have offered deals like this to top prospects just before or after their major league debuts over the years, with Evan Longoria, Matt Dominguez, Jon Singleton, Brandon Lowe, and Matt Moore all coming to mind.
Scott Kingery’s six-year, $24 million extension, which also had three options, before he had reached the major leagues seems like the closest comp, but Kingery’s max value was $65 million. He had also reached Triple-A, while but for a brief four-game stint in Tacoma in 2018, White hasn’t played above Double-A. Both Kingery and White had the issue of signing out of college and reaching the big leagues three years later, likely at age 24 for both. That Kingery is a speedy second baseman and White is a backwards first baseman without huge power could explain the difference, though GM Jerry Dipoto recently indicated that White had the second-highest average exit velocity among Mariners minor leaguers this season, and Eric and I have been told similar things about White’s hard hit rate outstripping his traditional raw power.
Both players gave up all of their prime years — and potentially, their entire careers — to one contract before they were able to establish their market value with major league play. Trading the promise of your career for an up-front payday obviously makes sense for a lot of people. We’re happy for White if he’s happy about this deal. And it’s a good day for the Mariners to have a potential core piece locked in for the foreseeable future. But the decision players face isn’t just one of taking the money or go year-to-year and assume massive risk. With a strong year or two, the guarantee on a theoretical early extension could almost double, and possibly entail fewer options. I got texts from industry people about this deal last night, and they were not pleased. One agent summarized the thoughts from the labor side: “Been dealing with about five big leaguer clients talking my ear off about this awful deal and how someone needs to talk to these young kids.” The vomit emoji made an appearance earlier in the exchange.
Kiley McDaniel has worked as an executive and scout, most recently for the Atlanta Braves, also for the New York Yankees, Baltimore Orioles and Pittsburgh Pirates. He's written for ESPN, Fox Sports and Baseball Prospectus. Follow him on twitter.
At first glance, it’s kind of a strange situation because unlike Kingery the guy has not even hit AAA except for a handful of games in 2018. But at the same time, we don’t have a great idea of how to evaluate AAA performance anymore because of the weird ball. And if you do this enough with your top prospects, you do wind up winning in the aggregate. It makes me wonder if you might see a similar deal coming with Logan Gilbert.
Evan White got a better deal than Albies did?
What the…..
Albies: $35M/7 year guaranteed with club options maxing out at $45M/9 years.
White: $24M/6 year guaranteed with club options maxing out at $55M/9 years.
Based on the fact that White already signed an extension, he might prefer the former contract, but still…
To be clear, I think this is a reasonable deal from both sides.
White is not a cannot-miss prospect.
$24M/6 years is obviously significantly lower than his median outcome, but then it is also significantly better than his 20% floor.
Players are risk averse (as they should be).
Teams are much less so.
There are a lot of mutually beneficial extensions to be made in that space.
If you just look at guaranteed money, Albies got the “better” deal, since he got $35M over 7 instead of $24M over 6. Of course, that analysis misses the larger picture, which is that Ozzie Albies had already put up a 4-win season and so was (a) already a very good major leaguer and (b) giving up more free agent years. Which is also why the Ozzie Albies deal is quite possibly the single worst contract for any team or (in this case) player in the post-strike era. It’s almost impossible to use that contract as a yardstick.
I’m pretty comfortable saying Albies’s deal is the worst from a player’s POV of the FA era – can we think of anything remotely close? Particularly given all the information at hand due to his actual value.
Jose Ramirez’s is also quite low, though he had only put up one good/very good season, and no one really saw 15 WAR over the next 2 seasons (2017 and 2018).
The thing that gets me about the Albies contract is that he’s signed through roughly the age Starlin Castro is now, for a max that’s less than Castro’s career earnings. And Albies is much better, 7 years of inflation later!
“How someone needs to talk to these kids” as if it’s the fucking kid’s fault that the current cba makes him underpaid for years with no out and the current arb process wouldn’t be entirely helpful to a guy who doesn’t hit a ton of homers. Screw any players who are blaming the kids for it. I get why they wouldn’t like seeing a kid sign away years cheaply like that, but the kid is clearly squeezed by the system. Not his fault.
Agree with your assessment. Not only that but a large percent of these players flame out and never last in the majors. Remember he’s had what, a handful of games at AAA? And he’s not shown huge power potential…..yet . Plus we don’t know any back stories like family financial issues, etc.
Bottom line, none of these players have the right to judge this guy. Go out and put up your numbers and you’ll get paid. Maybe you’ll get $55 million/4 years instead of $65 million. Cry me a river. I’d love to have been able to play in the majors.
Paging Mr. Rizzo…
I wish there was a way for us to get Anthony on the phone and ask him about his contract and how he “locked in early money”. Not too happy about it these days as he’s publicly asking for them to renegotiate it.
What? Unless this is recent, I can’t find Anthony saying anything like that.
In March in the Chicago Sun Times: ‘‘‘It’s give-and-take,’’ Rizzo said. ‘‘You don’t play Monday morning quarterback. I’m very happy with when I signed it and how I played.’’’
‘‘That’s a good feeling as a player, knowing that you don’t have to be looking [over] your back, that you have the security,’’ he said.’
Someone definitely needed to talk to Albies, though.
In theory, that is what an agent is for. But since Albies is represented by the same geniuses that cost Kimbrel millions of dollars I think the best case scenario is making sure he’s not an agent anymore.
Two words, Jon Singleton
“Been dealing with about five big leaguer clients talking my ear off about this awful deal and how someone needs to talk to these young kids.”
The MLBPA can sit down with them and explain how they gave up the rights of rookies to sign ML contracts and then later how they were perfectly cool with a hard cap for draftees because they hoped that money would fall into the pockets of mediocre veterans.
Maybe if the union didn’t destroy the earning power of younger players these deals wouldn’t be so attractive.
The difference between a $24 million floor versus washing out in a year or two (or maybe less) in the majors at the league minimum is more significant than the difference between $55.5 million (the ceiling on this contract) versus the $70 million or even $100 million he might make in that time period if he turns out to be a star. He’s guaranteed $24 million now, no matter what happens. And that guarantee means he’ll probably get more chances to succeed than he would if there wasn’t money committed to him. For an up-the-middle defender like Albies or Acuna, I can see some hand-wringing. But for a first baseman with questionable power, this looks like a pretty good deal for the player. The market for first basemen has been poor for a while (unless you can talk the White Sox into something, but that ship has just sailed), and the market for 1st basemen with below average power? Nonexistent.
If he turns out to be a dud, it’s a great contract for him. If he turns out to be an average-ish player, it’s still a decent contract for him, given the downside risk in his profile. If he turns out to be a star, he left money on the table, but in that case, this is probably not his last contract either.
That’s been my read too: this isn’t the deal to go nuts over. White is far from a lock for greatness, and the (limited) track record on guys who haven’t reached the majors who get these kinds of deals is mixed. At this point in his career this contract is probably a wash.
Just pulling a name out of a hat, Justin Smoak has played 10 seasons and has made $25.2 over his career. Lucas Duda has played 10 seasons and made $26.0. Obviously salary inflation matters, but we’re in the ballpark of the kind of money guys with this profile often make.
Very good point on career earnings at a position that has shouldered a large share of the less favorable FA market for guys entering their 30s. Smoak is especially interesting here, since he was regarded as a top prospect (better than White) for a couple years, and also was a college bat.
Pretty much this. Obviously if he turns into Goldy or something then this is going to turn out poorly for him. But if you think about the quality of his life with $24 million vs $70 million there isn’t really much of a difference. He could easily never be a quality MLB player, but at least now he knows he will play. With his status he would of played prior regardless, but he will get even more shots with money tied to him now.
And just look at what they do with 1st baseman in the MLB. Guys lead the league in HR’s and cannot find a job the next season. Plenty of 1st Baseman who hit the ball much better in the minors cannot crack it in the MLB and get next to no shot and will likely not even sniff his career earnings unless they go overseas (, AJ Reed, Bird, Gillaspie, Bradley, Tyler White etc). Even the ones who are up in the MLB contributing are likely only doing so since they are on rookie contracts. The unfortunate reality is even some of the guys who are contributing are unlikely to ever make as much money as he just got Christain Walker, Dominic Smith, Vogelbach, Aguilar because as soon as they aren’t making the league minimum (I didn’t verify that they all are) they are going to be replaced by someone who is. When I went back to review the top 1st base prospects from 2015 only 2, Bell and Olson are likely to top his career earnings and as much as that seems like a slam dunk, I wouldn’t even say that is guaranteed with how 1st baseman tend to get paid in arbitration. A step back for either of them and who knows where they end up. So basically White just took a contract that will pay him more than all but 2 of the top 10 1st base prospects. I’d consider that a win. Now I have heard mumbling that he could play CF, or move to the OF eventually, and if that is the case then it could change, but as is, I think he made a smart decision.
Exactly. White has a greater chance for flaming or being just an average-ish player than he has at being a star. its a good contract for the player.
Ozzie Albies on the other hand…
He will be 24 in April and has 4 games at AAA.
Now he will be guaranteed $24M over six years at a minimum.
Some of the other deals were really not favorable to the player, considering their performance at that age. But this one is meh. Life changing money, guaranteed, for a player who will be 24 in April with 4 AAA games. I would think some other minor league players are not vomiting over this — I think they may be saying “sign me up”.
I feel it is a great deal for White. From my perspective he gave up one year of control for $24 million guaranteed. It is a 9 year contract but he would have spent all of 2020 and the first two weeks of 2021 in the minors if not for this contract.
Fangraphs rates him a 50 prospect and I think it is Fangraphs that says 50 prospect hitters are worth $28 million over their career.
Scenario 1: White never makes it or gets hurt. White wins big. $24 Million is much better than nothing.
Scenario 2: White has a Brandon Belt career. Belt made $14 million in his controllable years. If not for this deal White’s controllable year would have included through 2027 IMO. White will make $44 million through 2027. White wins big again.
Scenario 3: White has a Joey Votto career In his controllable years Votto makes $38 million which is still less than White. White wins again. Now White also gives up another year at $10 Million. If you include the year White gives up then White makes $55 million and Votto’s $38 million + $22 million (average annual salary in extension) = $60 million.
This is a great deal for White if you assume he spends another year and two weeks in the minors. If you assume just 2 weeks in the minors it is a very good deal for White. If you think he would have been in the majors to start 2020 for a noncontending team with little time above A+ ball you have not been paying attention the last 10 years.
Well, you can’t just say he forfeited Votto level salary for the years he’s signed. By giving up the first few post-arb years, he’s also forfeiting the possibility that he reaches free agency at a reasonable age and signs a long-term deal that pays him like Votto or, say, Eric Hosmer. That is, if he would have hit free agency at 29, he might get a deal that pays him more, over the length of the contract, than he would get if he hits at 32, after some decline has set in.
All those extra years Votto secured, or Hosmer secured, or Pujols secured, or Cabrera secured, all of which are going to be good for player, are much less likely to be secured the older you are when you hit free agency
Wait, so players that are part of a union that fights for their earning rights are mad at a player that has no such access to the union powers (however small they may be in today’s marketplace) for signing a deal that gives him long term security?
Why not be mad about the fact that minor leaguers are compensated poorly? Why not change that fact so that players are more willing to wait (ie bet on themselves) since they earn more than sub-minimum wage before signing long term deals?
This is exactly the problem. If you want players to not sign team-friendly extensions, there needs to be more money in the minor leagues and more money during the team control years. Evan White’s career earnings are, at most, $45,000, and probably more like half that. If you want someone to not take $24 million dollars guaranteed–which is something like 500-1000x his career earnings–you should probably make him a little less desperate to start.
Evan White signed for roughly $3M in the draft. He’s not hurting for cash or desperate. Other cases, sure I bet the players are sick of working second jobs. However this all comes back to educating the players and having quality representation. I’m willing to bet (without researching and I apologize) that almost every singled “0” service time major league contract was signed by a top prospect that had a decent amount of cash in their pocket from the draft. Clubs are dumb.
I think this is the fourth extension for someone with zero days of MLB service time.
Of the three previous, two (Kingery and Eloy) are too soon to judge, but one (Jon Singleton) worked out extremely well for the player.
Only time will tell, I suppose.
Evan Longoria’s initial deal is also pretty comparable since he signed like one week into his MLB time (and which ended up sucking for him).
except for the part where they renegotiated it and then five or so years later the rays were desperate to have it off the books before he got 10-5 rights that they traded him. that renegotiation/extension worked well for Longo.
None of what you just said is relevant. They got a ton great years at a below market price for Longoria, then signed him to an extension that was ALSO below market rate, which they were only able to achieve because they already had him in a bad negotiating spot.
Longoria was a freaking monster in his early years. The fact that the second extension ended up working out reasonably well for Longoria because he aged quickly doesn’t have any bearing on how bad the first contract sucked for him or how badly it screwed him on the second contract at the time he negotiated.
These deals are incredibly smart right now from a team perspective. Expecting a tough fight when negotiating the CBA, it feels like a real possibility that the current arbitration structure is modified in the new CBA. Right now, the Mariners have bought out all of the arb years and at least three free agent years, but if the MLBPA is able to negotiate players hitting FA sooner than under the current system, these deals will look even better for teams.
Isn’t someone like the union regulating these agents? True Gravity Sports was White’s agent? Who is that? Great for the kid to get some upfront value, but sheesh what an awful deal for players and future players behind him. Some of these agents and players (especially ones with subpar representation) should be required to have the players association to sign-off on the deal. As a fellow member of a workers union, this makes me ill. Makes me think I could be a MLB agent.
Minor League Players aren’t a part of the union…so hard to argue that the MLBPA should be allowed to sign off on any deal they may or may not be able to negotiate for themselves. Now that he has a contract with a major league club Evan White can join the illustrious organization, but the MLBPA has almost exclusively worked to put more money in veteran players pockets and rarely done much of substance to help younger players
Yet I do believe the MLBPA does regulate the agents, right?
Yes, there is rather extensive regulation in regard to agents, but it is primarily focused on standards and requirements for who can become an agent or represent a player. Its a large jump to go from regulating who can be an agent to basically becoming a third party in contracts…
Yeah, I’d be pretty shocked if it was even legal for the MLBPA to demand agents handle their Minor League players in any particular way. Not only are they not union members, but they CAN’T be union members.
That would be like a teacher’s union telling the county they have to pay firefighters less.
A lot of hand-wringing by … established players, internet readers who have no idea the risk of being an MiLB player who has no guarantees of the future and probably having only 50% of his signing bonus — due to losing 50% or so to taxes — in the bank. He signed for just over $3MM. He likely has $1.5MM in the bank. Significant to most? Sure. But, hardly life-altering. He’d still have to get a real job if something prevents him from establishing a big-league career. This isn’t Alex Rodriguez or Bryce Harper or someone who signed a massive signing bonus which was mostly life-changing with the prospect pedigree to be allowed significant chances from multiple organizations even if injuries or poor performance occurred. Hard to blame this kid. The established players need to remember that they, too, maybe had doubts about their future before being fortunate enough to become established. Not everyone becomes established. And the armchair QBs on the internet who are complaining – why? Is there upside loss risk? Sure, but, $24MM, or at least $12MM in the bank after taxes, is essentially life changing money. Do the math. For example — say he ends up with $6MM left over after personal expenses through the next 10 years. You are talking about $200K annual annuity withdrawals for 40 years at only 1.5% growth. And thats if you don’t invest any of it the first 10 years and end up with $6MM in your account. As a 25-year old who isn’t a slam-dunk to make it player, essentially guaranteed to get many chances in the face of possible injuries or poor performance, saying no to this would be foolish. Plus, if you become incredible, there is always a chance for additional cash – renegotiating the contract in good faith such as maybe seeking to be paid at the 50% of market value instead of 25%, possible endorsements, etc.
$1.5m banked after taxes is hardly life altering? Yo. I want your life.
Hah, I mean over the long-term. $1.5MM buys you a nice house and a couple vehicles. But, you’ll still need to get a real job to be able to pay the property taxes, support a family, etc. It makes starting out in life really easy in comparison to most, sure, but its not going to change the direction of your life from there. With this contract, this kid now can have a really nice house in a really nice area, and then make $200K / year for 40 years while literally doing nothing. Thats life altering. He can raise his family, and he and his wife can do only that, if they so choose. And that is if everything goes wrong and he is out of baseball by the end of the deal or even before. If I’m 25 and I don’t have a guarantee to mega dollars, I’d give up the chance to make much more than $24MM if many complex, unforeseen circumstances break just right in exchange for $24MM guaranteed. If everything goes right and this kid becomes a great franchise player — he can always renegotiate this deal because I imagine the PR of doing so would behoove the organization on its own — or he would certainly be able to renegotiate near the end of the contract because if he has become so good as to be a franchise cornerstone, its unlikely the organization wants him to walk. Hard to fault this kid, I think. A lot of ridiculous hand-wringing by people who have already made it, or by those who only think of this in terms of seeing a number on their computer and not the real life implications of the dollars he is now guaranteed.
Too bad it can’t be vetoed like a lopsided fantasy trade
This would seem like a perfect opportunity to take that contract offer and go check in with that investment fund that is paying minor leaguers upfront for a % of their lifetime earnings.
Not really getting the angst over this deal, I like it a lot better for the player than I do for the team. I think the chances of him being a bust and never making to arb are considerably greater than the chance that he breaks out like Joey Votto and ends up underpaid.
I find the MLB GM venture capitalist seeking alpha as gross as anyone when it comes to these early extensions…. but this one seemed reasonable. It’s not even like White even had leverage to call them up proactively and say “yeah I know I’m 24 and have never been above double AA but I’m willing to sign for $24mm guaranteed if you want.”
I mean – c’mon. It’s a reasonable deal for the Mariners and in aggregate the house (ie MLB owners) will always win these deals in the long run…. but I would take this deal in a heartbeat if I’m him. $24mm guaranteed – a starting spot in the major leagues…. that’s the dream right there. If it turns out he’s a stud and could have made $200mm instead of $55mm – those are first world problems. IMO.
Greg Bird would love to hop in the Delorean and sign a $26mm extension.
I don’t like players signing these type of deals, but White is a 1B/DH only type of player. Life is tough for those prospects. Jon Singleton was brought up. Remember AJ Reed? D.J. Peterson? The DFA’ed Greg Bird? Kennys Vargas? Casey Gillaspie? Hell, even poor Dom Smith wasting away.
Say his 80th percentile outcome is Jose Abreu. That only gets 3/$50M on the market these days.
That makes it much different than Kingery, Albies, Lowe…etc. Those players are pretty much guaranteed playing time because their position/defense. While the market for 1B is so poor, it is fairly likely everyone outside of Abreu and Encarnacion may have to settle for a spring training invite….even a guy like Justin Smoak(if you want to talk about nice exit velocity…)
I agree w everything except the 1b/dh part. From what I have heard he’s one of those guys whose wheels are underrated and has been considered in cf/of.
He certainly played OF for Team USA and is considered by many to be the best defensive 1B in all the minors. So he very likely has room to move off 1B if required. His bat has improved quite a bit over the last year. I think he made a good move, except perhaps having an opt out available after perhaps 1 FA year to cover the OMG he’s all Joey Votto very unlikely outcome. Getting a shot at another contract at 29 or 30 vs 33 is a big difference.
I’m rooting for the kid.
Yeah, I don’t think this is a good deal for the Mariners… There is a significant chance they have to write off this entire contract.
$4M/yr is no big deal to a team like the Mariners
I think it can be both. A good deal, and a significant chance they write off his contract. Those aren’t mutually exclusive.
I agree. 1b prospects are limited in ceiling unless they are 70/70 hit/power like a vlad jr type or straight 80 power like alonso.
White doesn’t even have a 60 in either hit or power, don’t see much upside here. In all likelihood white would have made at best 10-12m more in his first 6 years, not a bad coat for minimizing the downside.
This is not an acuna type who has mvp level upside but most likely an 1.5 to 2.5 war first baseman.
The player got roughly the same wages as his projected surplus value. That is a lot more relevant to the discussion of whether this contract is good than the author’s citations (a few industry people texting vomit emoji).
There is, logically, a discounted present-value rate that would be efficient for the average 50th-75th best prospect in the game to take. This deal is roughly in that range.
What fangraphs writers too often peddle as ‘pro labor’ is not pro labor but only pro highest earners/pro agent (which incidentally are the players and industry big money figures who operate most closely with ownership).
well said. white and the mariners are basically just reducing their variance here. i get why both sides might have an interest in doing that. seems like a totally fair deal all around to me.
Well, it’s not just McDaniels who has suggested this is being viewed as a team-friendly deal. Seattle-area reporters have said the same and it’s not you’re going to see a list of names cited. You’re going to get a summary of what the general consensus seems to be–if there is one. That appears to be the case here.
If you know of anything otherwise, feel free to share.
What is bad about the deal for him? He doesn’t lose any FA years, as he would be under 6 years of control anyway, all he loses is potentially some arb money.
Don’t understand the hype around him anyway. Maybe his EV was high but he hit 18 homers while totally selling out to pull field (47% pull rate) which probably means there isn’t much room for growth and his K rate wasn’t low at 23% either.
His 55 hit/50 game power on fangraphs is probably accurate and nothing great for a 1b prospect.
I found that you can roughly add hit and power grade to predict the future wRC+ (once did a some research for a community article) so you can probably expect like a 105-110 wRC+, pretty boring for a 1b.
Not a bad prospect but that looks more like a platoon 1b to me, hitting 18 homers while pulling nearly half of his balls and whiffing 23% doesn’t excite me. He did have a 132 wRC+ which is solid but did so with a .346 babip which doesn’t happen at a 45% pull rate in mlb (which he needs to hit for power).
Imo in mlb he either is a .250 hitter with 25-30 bombs if he continues to focus on pull side bombs or a .275 hitter who hits 20 bombs if he hits more to all fields,both not super exiting.
That does play in mlb but nothing super spectacular at 1b.
You have to weigh in park factors as well as defensive value, which is much harder to assess than offense.
What are the average earnings that the #77 (or whatever the new current ranking) prospect would make over their first six-nine years after that ranking? Wouldn’t it be way short of $24MM and $55MM? I’m guessing even the average #10 prospect averages less.
I read a lot of “could’s” in this article regarding how much more money he might make IF he’s good. He “could” also bust (I don’t think he will) and still get $20MM more than he would have. It’s weird for an article, whose intent is analyzing a decision, to not really look at the pros and cons of each option in that decision. Most of the language was “what if he’s really good?”
I don’t think Fangraphs is properly taking into account the risk/reward decisions that these players are making as humans with long lives ahead of them with different plans and financial goals. This turned Evan White from “Likely to make some money, maybe tons, but maybe very little” into “Guaranteed to make lots of money and be set for life.” There’s more nuance to this than WAR/$MM happening, especially for players in White’s situation where they have realistic chances of missing out on big salaries with any injury or chronic poor play.
Thanks for the insight, Kiley. But we’re going to need a lot more pieces like this to hold us over until the book in out in April.
I might be mistaken, but it’s my understanding that Seattle is getting a reputation for being fair with players. Kikuchi’s deal might not be a great comparative, but it showed there was a willingness to take precautions regarding his health. Gonzales’ deal settled the service time manipulation issue that stemmed from his days with St. Louis, so perhaps that’s a better example? He’s making roughly double league minimum as a result.
Lot of off the field stuff as well, such as sending Braden Bishop home to see his mom before reporting to AAA Tacoma last year. She passed away in early October.
This will sound naïve of me, but it wouldn’t surprise me if Seattle were to extend him to much larger deal 6 years from now (with everything factored in) if he’s destroying MLB and clearly outplaying his contract.
I just can’t see them as a team that would screw over a player and risk backlash with future prospects and free agent targets. It’s been hard enough for them to attract big names due to their history and geographic location.
I think it would be pretty tough to make the case that a team could be screwing over a player whenever they mutually agree to any deal in the first place, especially if the player has professional help. But that’s sort of another topic.
Would love to see some analysis on these deals. Perhaps use something like KATOH to look at the probability of different outcomes and the projected arbitration salaries for each outcome?
I understand why this is concerning from a labor perspective, but I can’t help thinking that I’d do this in an instant if I was a AA prospect. If I could get $24 mil guaranteed I’d do it. Suppose I held out for free agency, everything went right, and I ended up with $240 mil instead. Would I really be significantly happier than if I had just taken 24? Seems like the risk of waiting and seeing is way bigger than the possible reward of additional dollars after the first $24 mil.