Hisashi Iwakuma Suddenly Signs With Mariners
The Mariners openly referred to Hisashi Iwakuma as their No. 1 offseason priority. Then they saw him reach a three-year agreement with the Dodgers worth $45 million, so they gave up, because they had to, and moved on to Wade Miley. Just days ago, Jerry Dipoto said he was basically done tweaking the roster. Everything was more or less set where he wanted. But you can’t predict random chaos. See, there are contracts that are agreed to, and there are contracts that are official. Before Iwakuma’s Dodger contract could become official, he had to pass a physical exam, and he failed it. As soon as Dipoto heard about that, he got ownership approval and moved in. I just finished watching a press conference announcing Iwakuma’s return to Seattle.
It happened fast, and Jon Heyman has the terms. Earlier Thursday, word spread Iwakuma had failed the physical. By Thursday night, the Mariners said they had him re-signed. Iwakuma gets a $1-million signing bonus, and a $10-million salary for 2016. Then there are $10-million club options for the next two years, with $1-million buyouts. That’s not the end of it, though — there’s a $14-million vesting option for 2017, if Iwakuma throws 162 innings this coming year. And there’s a $15-million vesting option for 2018, if Iwakuma throws 162 innings the next year, or 324 innings combined. Throw in some smaller incentives and Iwakuma’s maximum contract is right there with the Dodgers total. It’s just that the guarantee is $12 million. Pretty obviously, Iwakuma lost a lot of leverage.
Still, if he believes in his health, he’ll get his money. Iwakuma says he’s good to go, and so do the Mariners. It’s worth thinking about a few things. The Dodgers gave 3/$45m, and then wanted to re-negotiate after the physical. The Mariners gave Iwakuma an end-of-season physical, and they offered him 2/$30m. They initially lost out to the Dodgers because they weren’t comfortable with the guaranteed third year. What that suggests is that anything in the tests is more of a longer-term concern, and now the Mariners have some protection.
Not that we know how this is going to go. Maybe Iwakuma breaks down immediately. Or maybe this turns out like when Aaron Sele failed a physical with the Orioles. That scrapped a four-year commitment. Sele signed a two-year commitment with Seattle and pitched effectively. He eventually had shoulder surgery three years out (from which he returned). Iwakuma will be 37 in 2018 so he’d be a risk no matter what. The value here will be at the front.
Over three years, Iwakuma has Stephen Strasburg‘s ERA-, Scott Kazmir‘s FIP-, and Madison Bumgarner’s xFIP-. He projects now as a No. 2 or No. 3, and he sets up a battle between Nate Karns and James Paxton for the last rotation slot. That depth is likely to be needed, although now there’s some chance the Mariners re-visit trade talks, dangling a pitcher they didn’t think they could move. The likelihood is someone just starts in Tacoma. Some kind of injury somewhere is to be expected.
The Mariners didn’t expect to get a few wins better like this, but Iwakuma fell back in their lap, and they couldn’t pass up the opportunity. It’ll help them be competitive with what’s become a deep rotation. On the Dodgers’ end, they walked back from the three-year commitment because they were no longer comfortable with it. It’s mostly bad luck, but now this just increases the urgency they would’ve been already feeling to make the rotation better. They can’t know what to expect from Hyun-Jin Ryu. They can’t know when to expect Brandon McCarthy. There will always be questions about Brett Anderson and Alex Wood, so it’s a guarantee the Dodgers add one starter, and there’s a big chance they add two. This isn’t a catastrophe for them — they didn’t want to give all that money to someone they think is an injury risk. Nothing wrong with that. But to this point it’s been an offseason of missed opportunities. The good news is I think the Dodgers almost prefer to be creative.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
I had to check the date to make sure we hadn’t fast forwarded to the beginning of April.
So this is the second time the Mariners got Iwakuma because a medical issue knocked him out of consideration by a California team?
There is absolutely no change whatsoever in how the Phillies are run.
Bill Giles put the ownership group together with people who think like him 35 years ago. Guess what? Bill Giles is still there. He took part in the hiring of MacPhail and Klentak both. He was at the press conference announcing the hiring of Klentak.
35 Years.
Jim Thome and Cliff Lee
That’s it.
35 Years.
Carlos Ruiz and Maikel Franco, the only two starting quality players signed out of Latin America. Ruiz was signed out of Panama for eight thousand dollars. Need that in numerical form? $8,000- Eight Stacks.
Maikel Franco was signed for $100,000- That’s one hundred thousand American dollars. One hundred Stacks.
The Red Sox paid $63 million to sign Yoan Moncada. The Phillies paid $108,000- to sign both Carlos Ruiz and Maikel Franco.
Two real free agents and two starting position players from Latin America signed for nothing.
The Phillies Way is unchanged. They will sit in the cellar until they collect enough free talent in the MLB Plantation Slave Auction held every June. These young slave/intern players will be exploited to the max by the Phillies bloodsucking ownership cabal. For seven years they will make these bloodsucking criminals massive profits. If a few become fan favorites and the crowds are still huge as they near free agency then they will be signed to short, team friendly deals. If any have slipped through their screening process and turn out to be normal players seeking long contracts they will be demonized and booted out the door.
The Phillies after telling lies to their fan base from 2012 onward finally admitted they were “rebuilding”. The truth of the matter is they are already planning their next rebuild as they conduct this one.
THAT is The Phillies Way.
Google: Kevin Maitan FREE_AEC
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Good thing for the Mariners. This turns into a really low risk signing for them, and they walk away with a much better deal in the end.
For the Dodgers, there are still plenty of 2nd fiddle arms out there in Chen, Kazmir, leake and few other mid rotation non aces out there. While I am not sure any of them come as cheap as 3/45, i could see that as about what Kazmir or Chen ultimately end up with.
The Dodgers’ rotation is Kershaw and a bunch of filler now.
Their own choice now is to leverage some prospects for Fernandez or bust.
How can they be satisfied with their rotation as is?
Because their position players and bullpen makes up for the rotation’s perceived deficiencies, I guess.
The Dodgers have the outline of a really good rotation. And, if they make the playoffs, they might have one of the best playoff rotations in baseball. The challenge is getting there… due to the fact that there is also a chance of having maybe 2 healthy starters during parts of the year. But, this is an attainable upside for the second half, right now:
Kershaw
Ryu
McCarthy
Urias
Wood/Anderson
So I really don’t feel like they are in a crisis, but they definitely need some glue in there.
Also, the vesting options are voided if he’s involved in any more street fighting.
I’m glad the M’s hired Dipoto, and it’s been encouraging to see his emphasis on on-base percentage (Lookout Landing’s had a couple of good posts regarding that), but the pitching didn’t seem as solid. It was also depressing to lose Iwakuma to the Dodgers (I say that as both an Mariners’ and Giants’ fan). Besides significantly improving the M’s starting rotation, re-signing Iwakuma makes the offseason seem much more succesful, and will temper the angst some M’s fans had for Dipoto after he traded Brad Miller and some other popular Mariners.
Agree, and to expand a bit…
Before the signing, the M’s had slotted (approximately) like this:
Felix
Walker
Miley
Karns
Paxton
—
Montgomery/Nuno
The #2-#5 slots were probably a bit of a reach, counting on all of them to reach close to their full potential to be a passable MLB rotation. And the #6-#7 names show how thin it was.
This one signing fixes both problems and turns the rotation into a legitimate strength.
There’s still not much power in the OF, and Cano has turned into a major wildcard, but the depth throughout all phases of the roster makes this team look much more able to survive extended individual slumps than last year.
Worth noting that several of those projected starters will be on some sort of innings limit for the season, so even if they all performed and stayed healthy, there was going to be need for more talented depth in the rotation.
Plus Seattle’s ERA should drop in 2016 due to having now one of the best Defensive OF’s in MLB. Not many balls are gonna drop in the OF this year.
Seattle came out smelling like a rose on this deal and takes all the risk out of the next 3 years now that its not a guaranteed $15/yr!
Not sure how you’re seeing Seattle’s outfield as one of the best defensively in the majors. Leonys Martin is clearly a very good centerfielder, but there are questions about whether he’s actually elite or just very good. After that, you’ve got Seth Smith, Nori Aoki, and Franklin Gutierrez (and possibly Nelson Cruz) manning the outfield corners, none of whom are thought of as terrific outfield defenders. And that also leaves them without a good defender to cover center if something goes awry with Martin.
It looks like a good group defensively, but nothing special.
Mike Napoli failed a physical with the Red Sox prior to the 2013 season. He ended up getting more money from them than they had originally agreed to.
Depends on how you look at it. He got much less of a guarantee while also losing two years off the original offered contract. It was structured with incentives, which he met, enabling him to make as much on that one-year contract as he would have for the first year of the scuttled three-year contract. It worked out well for him because he stayed healthy and signed a two-year contract the following year which paid him more than he would have gotten for years two and three of the scuttled contract.
So he had to settle for a much reduced contract after failing his physical, but he was fortunate in that things worked out well for him, and he actually made more money in the long run.
yes, i believe that’s what he’s saying
Man, I was liking the look of the Dodgers rotation way way better with Iwakuma in it. In fact I had my eye on him since he was a free agent, before they even “signed” him. Ugh. Obviously I can’t say whether I wish they had gotten a deal done or not without knowing what his actual health projection was, but a one-year deal with a lot of incentives seems like something the Dodgers would have been ok with. It sounds to me like Iwakuma always preferred Seattle, and this gave him the opportunity to go back.
So, I don’t feel like I can really fault the Dodgers FO for this, but holy crap is the reaction to this going to be bad on some parts of Dodger fan internet space. I am personally not really worried still though. Pretty much no one has had any inkling of what this FO was going to do until they did it, for any of the moves they’ve made.