Juan Soto Lands the Richest Contract in Sports History
Last year’s Winter Meetings were a bit of a snooze until the end, but 2024’s kicked off in style with the biggest free agent this offseason, Juan Soto, signing a massive 15-year deal to join the New York Mets for what is likely to be the rest of his career. At $765 million, Soto’s new contract is the richest in the history of professional sports. The ifs, buts, and wherefors make the contract even richer, as Soto scores a signing bonus of $75 million immediately, has no money deferred, and even has an opt-out after the fifth season if he believes he can land something even more lucrative. The Mets do get the option to void Soto’s opt-out by adding $40 million to the value of the last decade of his contract.
The wildest thing is that it’s not really even much of an overpay. Some might compare it to contracts like the ones given to Albert Pujols or Miguel Cabrera, but those deals were given to significantly older players. Signing a player in his mid-20s rather than one in his late-20s or early-30s is a very big deal. First off, let’s run the numbers for Soto in Queens:
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | .276 | .426 | .521 | 528 | 108 | 146 | 26 | 2 | 33 | 100 | 137 | 109 | 7 | 167 | 6.2 |
| 2026 | .274 | .427 | .518 | 525 | 109 | 144 | 25 | 2 | 33 | 98 | 140 | 106 | 7 | 167 | 6.2 |
| 2027 | .274 | .430 | .513 | 522 | 108 | 143 | 25 | 2 | 32 | 96 | 143 | 104 | 7 | 167 | 6.2 |
| 2028 | .271 | .429 | .505 | 521 | 107 | 141 | 25 | 2 | 31 | 93 | 144 | 103 | 6 | 164 | 6.0 |
| 2029 | .263 | .424 | .481 | 520 | 105 | 137 | 24 | 1 | 29 | 90 | 145 | 103 | 5 | 157 | 5.5 |
| 2030 | .261 | .421 | .472 | 521 | 103 | 136 | 24 | 1 | 28 | 88 | 144 | 103 | 5 | 153 | 5.2 |
| 2031 | .259 | .418 | .464 | 522 | 101 | 135 | 24 | 1 | 27 | 86 | 143 | 104 | 5 | 150 | 4.9 |
| 2032 | .258 | .417 | .457 | 523 | 99 | 135 | 24 | 1 | 26 | 85 | 142 | 104 | 4 | 148 | 4.7 |
| 2033 | .256 | .414 | .448 | 524 | 96 | 134 | 24 | 1 | 25 | 83 | 141 | 105 | 4 | 145 | 4.4 |
| 2034 | .255 | .412 | .442 | 525 | 94 | 134 | 24 | 1 | 24 | 81 | 140 | 107 | 3 | 143 | 4.2 |
| 2035 | .254 | .409 | .437 | 512 | 90 | 130 | 23 | 1 | 23 | 77 | 134 | 105 | 3 | 141 | 3.9 |
| 2036 | .248 | .402 | .416 | 469 | 78 | 116 | 20 | 1 | 19 | 67 | 120 | 97 | 2 | 133 | 2.9 |
| 2037 | .244 | .395 | .404 | 423 | 68 | 103 | 18 | 1 | 16 | 58 | 106 | 88 | 2 | 128 | 2.2 |
| 2038 | .244 | .394 | .401 | 381 | 59 | 93 | 16 | 1 | 14 | 51 | 94 | 80 | 1 | 127 | 1.9 |
| 2039 | .242 | .390 | .393 | 343 | 52 | 83 | 14 | 1 | 12 | 44 | 83 | 73 | 1 | 124 | 1.4 |
ZiPS moved to using a stepwise function last year, as there’s now strong evidence that teams are treating the first win as far less valuable than wins two, three, four, and onward. ZiPS evaluates a 15-year deal for Soto at $719 million. Yes, that’s less than $765 million, and doesn’t price in the opt-out, but it’s not exactly in a different stratosphere. For a bidding war between rich teams, the money made a lot of sense; the Yankees’ final offer to Soto was reportedly $760 million over 16 years.
Imagine if Soto were going to be 30 years old in 2025 rather than 26 years old. The change in the projections is massive, reducing the value of his projected contract to $312 million. That’s still a huge chunk of change, but it’s nearly a half-billion dollars off his actual deal. In fact, that’s not all that dissimilar from Aaron Judge’s nine-year, $360 million deal (a 30-year-old Soto probably wouldn’t get a 15 year deal). So you can see why Soto more than doubled Judge.
The best comparison to Soto is Alex Rodriguez, or more specifically, Rodriguez’s first contract. Getting the opportunity to sign mega-stars is a rarity in itself; getting the chance to sign them when most of their prime seasons are likely still ahead of them rather than behind is even rarer. A-Rod’s deal blew everyone else’s away at the time because of the near impossibility of adding a talent like him, and the projections at the time justified it.
Soto will be the face of Mets baseball for a generation. If the Mets don’t succeed, he’ll likely get as much of the unfair blame as A-Rod did during his Rangers tenure. Critics of A-Rod were always obsessed with the idea that Texas lost because of his contract even though the team had the largest payroll in the AL West without A-Rod. Similarly, Soto could put up a seven-win season as the Mets go 79-83, and the critics will probably forget that the team’s payroll will be somewhere around $300 million a year without their new superstar. That’s the price you pay when you’re the big dog, and Soto’s new deal will make him the biggest one on the block for the foreseeable future.
My colleague Ben Clemens will be back in this space very soon with a long rundown of the Soto deal.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
I hope Hal Steinbrenner never feels safe showing his face in public again. He doesn’t even realize what just happened here. Burn the stadium to the ground and salt the earth. The Yankees are dead, and the sooner they’re forgotten the better.
Give us a break. It’s obvious that Cohen would have matched or beaten any offer Hal made, even if he had to dip into his own very large pockets to do so. Offering $760 million over 16 years does not show lack of effort.
A genuine effort would be at any point offering the most money. They have the highest revenue in the sport and are one of the most valuable sports franchises in the nation. They never did. Anything less than the largest offer is eyewash.
Yet even the Yankees insist on earning a profit every year, just like 28 other franchises do. Cohen is currently the only owner willing to spend out of his own pockets, so it’s just not possible for any other team to outbid him when he’s absolutely serious about going after a free agent.
Of course, free agents won’t always take the highest offer, but most of them do.
I can’t imagine typing this unironically
Oh, it’s ironic, all right.
The Yanks can afford the PR hit.
Steinbrenner probably thinks he dodged a bullet; he bid a massive sum he didn’t have to make good on. Now they go to town on pitching.
He’ll live.
you know full well that that is not a winning strategy. overpaying for aging pitchers is a fast track to irrelevance. their lineup is going to be a level of godawful that will make your eyeballs bleed
Is it?
Cole was a disaster?
Getting Fried would be bad?
Or Burnes?
They could get both plus Walker and Torres and still be under $765M.
Their off-season was never going to be Soto alone. They have other holes and so do the Mets.
The winter shopping season is just starting.
They are not going to spend $765M. They are going to, at most, spend $60M AAV. Anything more than that and they pay it 210%which they’re so deathly afraid of that Soto told them to go kick rocks because of it. Burnes is an albatross in waiting, Fried is nothing. Walker is 47 years old. They’ve already told Gleyber they’re not interested.
I put it at >40% they feel sorry for themselves and use this chance to reset the luxury tax.
Yeah, I’m wholly expecting a Luxury Tax reset – bet they give Walker 5/$80m rather than 3/60 in order to lower his AAV 😂
This guy knows so much about the future it’s a wonder he’s not spending his days at Aqueduct.
Oh, I wasn’t joking – they’re paying Aaron Hicks and DJLM a combined $24.5m against the luxury tax in 2025.
“Longtime listener, first time caller…”
The usual measured Yankee fan response.
I mean, I’m with you but I’m a Red Sox fan, so…
“That’s a clown comment, bro.”
Don’t feed the troll
I take Ohtani and his contract over this every SINGLE time
Yeah, but IIRC, Ohtani didn’t want to play in NY. I don’t think the Mets could have gotten Ohtani for anything like as “little” as the Dodgers paid for him.
Maybe? Idk, if Ohtani keeps insisting on pitching (why not) he creates a greater than average injury risk. Soto is so young.
Feels like preference over objectivity, which is fine btw.
Yeah, Ohtani is four and a half years older than Soto and carries significant injury risk.
Injury risk… to his pitching ability. He’s more than proven that even if he can’t pitch because of an injury he can still hit better than almost anyone in the league. So even if he was only the quality of a back end starter his contract would be well worth it. The only real detriment to his contract is his age.
I mean, once certain injuries start they don’t tend to stop. While it’s mechanically harder to do what pitchers do vs hitters, it’s still the cumulative wear and tear from needing to play hard at such a high level for so long to justify these investments.
There’s a reason aging hitters become DH after all.
His age is a really big difference, though! I think we’re all so used to Soto — he seems like he’s been around forever already — and also so used to players being older when they hit free agency that people are unconsciously getting this wrong. Paying for the prime years is hugely more valuable than paying for the decline years even (especially!) for the best players in the game.
Would anyone be surprised to learn that Soto was really 28 or 29? Does he play like he’s 26? Does he run or field like he’s 26? From that standpoint, I don’t really get the focus on his age as a bonus. IF anything, it’s alarming he moves like this in the outfield at 26.
But it seems like the big injury risk is that he’ll no longer be able to pitch, rendering him an amazing hitter with limited defensive value–basically what Soto already is.
Soto said he only will play on the east coast. Ohtani said he only will play on the west coast. While it’s mostly money, everybody has preferences.
I’m a pretty big LAD fan, and that’s a crazy take to me. A 25 yr old with way lower injury risk than Ohtani, 5 years of youth, and a floor better than 90% of players anyway? I think Soto wanted to be on the east coast and probably NY, but cmon. I love watching Ohtani and have no regrets, but I would have LOVED seeing him bat somewhere between Ohtani/Betts/Freeman, and if you’ve got a good CF, who cares if the glove isn’t great? I don’t remember the Padres unloading Tony Gwynn for being a mediocre fielder, and Soto makes Gwynn look like…well, maybe not *me* precisely, but…
Even putting aside Ohtani’s preferences, he’s no longer available. You have to choose between Soto at this price or the other players on the market right now.
In the crowdsource ballot I said 15/$720 and felt like I was on the high end of being ridiculous. The only thing that is keeping me from feeling like I was right in the wrong direction is that I’m not sure the opt out actually has that much value. As illustrated above, it will be incredibly challenging for Soto to be so valuable that he’d be comfortable walking away from $510.
I also think that Cohen is probably doing a lot of leaning on the time value of money here. While there’s no way that Soto’s final few years will return value, but that’s so far down the road that the real time financial hit won’t be as significant as it feels now. 15 years ago A-Rod was the highest paid player in the game at $33 (by $12!), and that would feel like a bargain now.
Biggest dice roll for me in this is the possibility that his defensive value slides as he nears/hits 30 so much that they have to consider him for DH. His bat skills could keep, but I could see the back end of this being a sort of Edgar Martinez type presence, which isn’t a bad thing at all but not something I’m sure you build a franchise around. Still, the Mets are getting his best years, and probably half the contract where he’ll be at his extended peak, so I think it’s worth the longterm investment. Even if it is crazy expensive compared to what the Dodgers did with Ohtani.
I dont understand why everyone goes straight to DH with Soto. Why can’t he move to 1B in a couple seasons and be decent there? His body type seems fine for it
To answer the start of this thread I had 15/750 and felt pretty confident in it. People always underestimate the top of the market. Boras was going to hold out for more than Ohtani’s deal and then it was just a matter of how much higher it would go before Team #2 blinked
With Cohen involved, I figured it would be in that range since he folded on giving Lindor more than Tatis’ frankenstein extension when he was bidding against himself
Maybe the Mets could have shaved a few million off the Lindor deal, but it is going great for the Mets. I think Cohen does that deal 100 times out of 100.
And as a bit off a bonus, they will probably get Soto and Lindor going into the HoF as Mets too. (Not sure if that is worth anything in dollars to a team, but there is prestige in that, and Cohen does seem to care about that over dollar efficiency)
Yep – folks who actually know how to “Run their team like a business” understand that overpaying for a generational talent can be an investment, not a cost.
mike p. wrote about this
https://www.mlb.com/news/juan-soto-on-track-to-challenge-all-time-marks
I mean, Soto has never played the infield before and 1B isn’t a hard position to fill. This isn’t a Harper like situation — that dude was a catcher coming up thru the minors and knew how to pick it and PHI had 2 other guys blocking the DH slot. The Mets would likely just stick Soto at DH and find someone else to play 1B
Harper played catcher in HS and JC but not in the minors. Nats moved him to outfield on day one.
1B isn’t that hard. Tell ’em Wash.
Just like with Mike Trout, and so many others, the biggest dice roll is one large, or a series of smaller, debilitating injuries. Even for non-pitchers, health is such a crucial part of playing well deep into one’s 30’s.
The opt out is not a hard option the Mets can override the option out by tacking another 50 mil distributed over the final ten years.
Per the BLS inflation calculator, $33 million in 2009 is the equivalent of a bit over $49 million in 2024.
That makes Soto’s AAV of $51 million roughly equivalent to A-Rod’s in actual value.
Huge contract for a fantastic player in his mid 20s. That is very hard to judge with the unknown future of both baseball and normal inflation. The Mets are going for it now so it seems reasonable.
With the only vague comp being Alex Rodriguez’s first FA contract, I will note that for all the outrage/shock that he averaged over 7 WAR a season whether measured by FG or BR WAR. It was (as often happens; see Derek Jeter, CC Sabathia, Stephen Strasburg, etc.) the second extension that became an albatross. It’s funny to think that the Mets’ best case scenario would be to have Soto opt out after playing for the Mets in his age 26–30 seasons and someone else has to pay for his 30’s.
Mets could negate his opt out by upping the aav on his contract after 2029 according to numerous reporters.
If he doesn’t opt out at 31, his pay jumps by the $4M.
His choice, though.
Would a 31 year old Soto get more than $550 in FA?
Again the opt out allows the Mets to override it by adding an additional 50mil over the last ten years. Basically its a performance incentive at that point unless both he and the Mets want to go their own separate ways.
The report I saw says he gets the last word.
We’ll see.
Man, it hurts me to type this, but you can probably group Trout into the “second extension being the problem” group too
F yes! If we were allowed to post gifs I’d be spamming the heck out of the this place with the Daniel Bryan yes yes yes gif
I’m just joking I wouldn’t.
Few would blame you.
The walks in Dan’s forecast for the 15 years would carry Soto about 175 BB past Bonds career total. That’s a fun counting stat to follow as the future reveals how far down the Williams/Bonds path he can go.
Soto not losing plate discipline and pitchers continuing to walk him a ton as he comes a 25-HR/year guy seems really unlikely, much as I generally trust ZiPS.
He was already barely more than a 25 HR guy before the last couple years though…
I would expect it to go similarly to Bobby Abreu’s progression, where he does fall a couple percentage points from his peak (age 32) but only one deviation below his career average at most
For Soto that would be peaking back in the 22%+ range and then having some 15-16% years in his late 30s? I think the Mets would take that
He maintained a 20+% walk rate while hitting 27 and 29 homers in a season. I’m not sure it’s due to pitchers avoiding him so much as his elite plate discipline (and sure, that can decline with age, especially if/when his eyesight gets a bit worse with age).
Age 41 Rickey Henderson had a 17% walk rate despite still being a huge stolen base threat and not a power threat. (Man, his plate discipline must’ve been off the charts)
The money here is absolutely baffling. When the first numbers came out, I was thinking there must be some deferred compensation to get the total figure this high. Not only was I wrong, but every additional detail that came out made the contract even MORE impressive.
No deferrals, $75M up front, AND an opt out. Wild
Assuming the deal is ~46M/year, there’s basically no chance Soto opts out. He can’t possibly be worth 10/$460M at age 30 unless he learns a new skill like pitching, stealing 50 bases, or becoming a strong defensive RF. Or if there’s some major change in MLB revenue and thus luxury tax thresholds that leads to a quantum leap in payrolls.
$51M a year, clean.
$55M after he doesn’t opt out.
It looks to be structured like the Cole opt out. Soto can opt out, Mets can choose to override by tacking on $4M a year ($40M) total over the last 10 years. If Soto doesn’t opt out, the $4M isn’t automatic.
I’m not convinced 10 years, $510M+ will be sitting there for him in 5 years. The $51M AAV is mostly due to his age and getting surplus value on the next 5 years. That surplus value is mostly gone once he’s 5 years older.
Totally agree – no one is paying a 31-year-old Soto $500MM+ for the next ten years. The surplus value is all on the front end.
Curious what the stepwise function is that turns 66 wins into $719M given a back-of-the-napkin calculation of $8-9M/win.
For some teams the win value is more than that. The Mets are one of those teams.
It’s because every win is worth more than the one prior. It’s not exactly 1 win is worth 8, 2 is worth 16, it’s more 1 is worth 5, 2 is 16, then if speeds up quickly. And guys on the lower end won’t get that because there are a lot more variables
A lot more variables, and a lot more alternatives. “We can’t get this 1 WAR player? Fine, we’ll sign one of the other 28 available.” Can’t do that quite so readily with a 7-WAR guy.
So, the first billion dollar contract will likely go to someone none of us have ever heard of yet. But if there’s anyone in the big leagues today who would lead the betting odds, it would have to be Gunnar Henderson I would think. He’d be a year and a half older than Soto when he hits FA, so that pushes the chances really low, but with 4 roughly equivalent seasons to his 2024, I think there’s at least a slimmer of a chance
The actual answer might have been Bobby Witt if he hadn’t signed his extension
I’d bet it’s someone we have heard of, just not someone in the mlb yet. Who? No clue
First billion dolLar contract?
Joe Boyd, of course.
Buck Bokai, no doubt.
Given that Witt already signed, if it’s somebody already in MLB, it’s either Gunnar or a 100th percentile outcome Elly De La Cruz who’s just as skilled as he is athletic by the time he hits free agency after his age 27 season.
But yeah, it’s more likely some 12 year old kid from the DR.
Not that I totally buy that ZiPS will be all that accurate that far out (there’s just too many variables in projecting a single player – what drugs will he/wont he be on, does he step on a base funny at age 34, etc) but this ZiPS projection has Juan Soto’s average OPS+ outcome in 2039 higher than Pete Alonso’s past season at age 29
You linked to the wrong Alex Rodriguez. Assuming that you don’t have inside info on the 26 year old catcher? 🤔
Hate being this guy, but “ Imagine if Soto were going to be 30 years old in 2025 rather than 26 years old.”
I think true age is more based off of how you look anyways before even touching(likely valid) conspiracies. Call it the Greg Oden rule. For an analytical community I guess it’s hard to grasp anything that isn’t set, like a number, rather than just well he looks a lot older, even if he isn’t. People mature at different rates/ages.
Do you have any evidence for said conspiracies outside of your own latent racism?
How is that racism lol.
I heard somewhere (likely valid) that carter kicks puppies and stiffs waitstaff.
I have a gift card (likely invalid) for Amazon for you.
So much for the “He liked playing with Judge” narrative.
He went for the last penny on the table…
…and the chance to be alpha dog on the team.
The money likely matters less than the latter.
He went to the team more likely to win a world series in the next 15 years. He knew that if Hal signed him it would be the last free agent he ever signed, whereas Cohen would keep spending to make the team better. Why would he ever in a million years sign up to spend the rest of his career playing for an imbecile who ties one and a half hands behind his back
Stays in the same city, but gets an owner committed to winning.
The Yankees really backed themselves into a corner on this one with their griping about how their payroll wasn’t sustainable. If the Yankees “only” offered $500M then they would have been blown out of the water by the other teams. When they offered $710M or whatever it was then Soto could realistically wonder if the Yankees would keep spending enough to surround him with top talent. There are benefits to being seen as a team that will always go the extra mile for talent like the Dodgers and (now) the Mets.
Hell – it’s how the Yankees sniped Teixeira from the Sox, once upon a time.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch…
The Dodgers signed Conforto for $17M, Treinen for $22/2, are closing in on Hernandez, and looking to see if they can grab Sasaki.
Don’t think they’re too concerned.
Atlanta and Philly?
They’ve got their marching orders, too.
For all the talk about “what the Soto deal means for the game”, very little will change until the next “generational talent” hits FA. Most teams couldn’t (reasonably) afford him and the ones that might’ve stretched to do so actually have bigger needs they’ll now address.
And the Mets still have plenty of work to do.
For starters, make sure Soto has good armor on his hamate.
I’d see it more as the Mets deciding they want to run the East like the Dodgers run the West and aim for a bye annually; ATL and PHI might see their window start to shrink a bit, esp if ATL’s injuries/FA losses stack up and PHI ends up with a dead weight OF.
Wanting isn’t getting.
Also, the Dodgers are being tactical in how they pay.
As in, a billion dollars deferred vs zero deferred dollars.
I love Juan Soto and think he is a probable Hall of Famer but there is no easy way to rationalize a deal that shatters the net present value by about $200M or $300M it ends up being. We are well outside of the dollars per win framework when it involves projecting 15 years into the future and an AAV that is a measurable % of the GDP of the Dominican Republic.
At those levels it is monopoly money.
It’s about oneupmanship and being top dog.
These omega deals for young stars are either worth it or they are not. You’re not gonna be happy with Juan Soto at 600M but unhappy with him at 765.
Like, say the Dodgers had bid the Phillies up to 500M on Bryce Harper. Are they upset with their purchase right now? Unlikely. Maybe sports writers are on his case a bit more. But it’s not like Philly has really done anything with the money “saved” there. They’d still sign Wheeler and Trea and probably Schwarber. They might not have engorged themselves on Nick Castellanos or Taijuan Walker. Which would probably make them better off
The Mets just wont replace Starling Marte with another Starling Marte type signing next offseason. It’s really not a big deal as long as Soto is healthy and good. And as long as Cohen exists contract inflation will keep happening, so the next Marte type signing will go from 20 AAV (5 years from then) to 25 next year and probably 30 in another 5 years
Kyle Tucker probably just made 150M sitting on his couch yesterday
It’s not your money, there are plenty of ways to rationalize this (what, you think the Mets will lose money?), and you’re telling on yourself a bit with that bit about the DR…
It’s like 0.4% of the yearly GDP of the DR! It’s insane!
why are you comparing a 15-year sum to the yearly GDP
Some quick googling shows me that Cohen Private Ventures operates four hedge funds managed by 20 c-suite executives. Actual question for those crying “overpay”: do you think Juan Soto is Steve Cohen’s highest-paid employee? And if so, by how much?
Hard to tell.
Specific salaries are generally secret in Wall Street.
However:
“According to GlassDoor, the average salary for a Corporate Executive in the United States is $213,042 per year.
Of course, this is just a salary estimation based on current compensation data. The actual salary for a corporate executive can vary wildly, with a likely range of anywhere from $187,000 to $333,000 per year.”
https://www.tdsgs.com/blog/executive-salary-guide
That is not the place to look for comparison.
The tech industry is where the real money lies, particularly the $3Trillion dollar companies.
Microsoft’s Satya Nadella, earned $79.1M in 2024, up from $48.5 million in 2023, and $39 million a year earlier. That was because Microsoft’s shares had gained about 31.2% during the fiscal year ended June 30, 2024 and most of his compensation is company stock. His base salary is $2.5M.
Over at Apple, Tim Cook earned $63.2 million in 2023.
At AI-chip giant Nvidia, CEO Jensen Huang’s payout was $34.2 million in fiscal 2024.
The Wall Street boys fancy themselves “Masters of the Universe” but they’re Just big frogs in a small pond. The real Masters are in Seattle, Austin, and Cupertino.
As for net worth, “big bucks” Cohen comes in at $11B. Pretty good.
But Nvidia’s Huang comes in at $118B.
Steve Ballmer, Nadella’s maligned predecessor at MS left with $144B.
And then’s this guy in Texas at $344B who made $34B overnight last month out of a $240M investment.
There’s big money and then there is freaking BIG MONEY.
The latter comes from changing the world, not gambling on the stock market or banking.
The real revenge of the nerds.
He’s probably the highest paid SALLARIED employee.
All of those execs earn money in ways not nearly so set in stone (or for as long of a term) as a baseball player.
Mbappe was offered $332 million for 1 year and turned it down, and Vinicius Jr turned down the first billion dollar contract over 5 years, and approximately $218 million per year. The whole Saudi Arabia thing is so funny to me, like how they create new laws that apply only for Ronaldo (living with someone you are not married to).
Exactly.
Raw numbers just are not comparable.
Context matters.
Friend, the answer has been (and will be, for a bit longer) Bobby Bonilla
Man, the Astros sure must be loving that Yordan Alvarez contract right about now.
Since 2021
Yordan Alvarez
27yrs old, 6/$115m, 2290 PAs, 165 WRC+, -49.5 Def, -9.7 BsR
Juan Soto
26yrs, 15/$765m, 2739 PAs, 161 WRC+, -41.1 Def, -10 BsR
What would Alvarez have gotten if he hit the market last year instead of signing a team friendly extension? And how likely is it that Soto becomes a DH in a couple of years (if he shouldn’t already be one now)? At 26 he’s already an awful defender and baserunner and he’s never played infield so I’m not sure a 1B conversion is in the cards.
The Mets are currently projected to play Marte at DH. They could pretty easily sign Kepler or someone meh, bench Marte, and put Soto at DH, no? Or just bench Marte and play Acuna in RF?
If the Dodgers had been good after they dealt Pedro, would it still be considered one of the worst trades of all time? Certainly, Alvarez for Fields would haunt just about any FO exec, but Friedman’s rep is so strong, he can toss a possible HoFer to a rival and still be the best in the biz. The absurdity tickles me. (but to your point: If Soto’s floor is Alvarez, then yeah, you give him whatever he wants)
I’m not really saying that Alvarez is Soto’s floor. I’m saying the two of them likely have similar floors and ceilings (I would take Soto obviously bc of age and Yordan’s knee issues but they aren’t that different)
Alvarez is awesome and it’s a great contract.
Soto is 16 months younger and was approximately a scratch OF in three of those four seasons, with 2022 being a shitshow (over the last two years, it’s -16 and -3 for Soto vs -28 and -8 for Alvarez)
Not to mention Soto’s massive advantage in the single best ability a player can have.
16 months is something! And Yordan’s knee issues are a big downside! But you’re being pretty selective when it comes to the defensive side of things. It’s a stretch to call Soto a scratch fielder when he put up -13 OAA in 2022 and -9 in 2023 and -4 this year. He’s currently projected by Steamer for -11 Def this year. The guy isn’t a good fielder and the numbers show it.
Incidentally, UZR and DRS both show Alvarez to be the better OF defender on a per inning basis. I don’t think I trust that but it’s still hard to make the case that Soto is miles away the better defender. And it doesn’t matter anyways! They should both DH!
End of the day, if I’m the Astros I’m very happy I was able to buy Yordan’s prime years so cheaply
Soto’s Def component of fWAR, over the last five years:
+1.3
-2.4
-14.1
+2.4
-2.3
As the man said, one of these things is not like the others.
(I will say that I’d like an explanation for the discrepancies between Def and FRV!)
I fee like I’m missing something (I’ll admit there might be a component of the fWAR calculation that I don’t know about). I’m looking at his player page and I see this for Soto’s Def:
-6.1
-10.0
-20.9
-4.1
-4.5
I had previously seen that ZIPS valued him at 13/$620 Mil–where did the additional $100 mil come from?
this zips run is particular to being on the mets (i.e., specific competitive quality and home/away ballparks) and is also chosen as 15 years long vs a length chosen by zips
The additional two years add a little value but they only add 3.3 WAR. The park likely plays a role but is Citi Field really that much of a positive for him over a neutral park?
Maybe it is, but I’m curious if that’s the cause.
Soto has hit very, very well at Citi Field as a visiting player. I’m fairly sure ZIPS doesn’t know about this specifically, and I’m also fairly sure it didn’t actually factor into Soto’s decision, but there was an article a day or two ago that suggested he really likes the batter’s eye.
ZIPS knows more than you think! It knows what lies in the deepest darkest corners of our souls!
The auction.
Lots of bidders.
It was never going to be less than 15 years.
What is interesting is there are no deferrals or added years to water down the AAV.
I was asking about the difference between the previous ZIPS number of $620 mil and the $719 mil in this article. Two more years totaling 3.3 WAR and a friendly home park are probably part of it, but doesn’t seem like it would explain that big of a difference.
I just looked back at Barry Bonds’ contracts and holy Toledo that guy was comically underpaid for the era. And over multiple deals. J.B. Bernstein wasn’t much of an agent.
Which contracts are you referring to? I thought I remembered his first deal in San Fransisco as the largest at the time. After that I’m not sure.
Details:
When Bonds signed with SF , MLB salaries averaged $1,076,089 a year and he signed for $7.29M a year. That was 6.8 times the average.
Mlb average salaries currently run $4.98M (which are slightly depressed from 2020 value, since they’ve only increased 10% vs 25% inflation) which makes his deal 10X.
So, Soto is getting about 33% more than Bonds.
With way more money coming into the game these days I’m not sure its fair to his agent to say that Bonds was “comically” underpaid. He got the biggest deal ever–by a lot–at the time.
Here’s one current media take on Bonds’ deal:
https://www.si.com/mlb/giants/san-francisco-giants-news/landmark-san-francisco-giants-free-agent-signing-among-most-valuable-ever
I was referring to his 1999-2001 extension and then his 2002-2007 extension, after he had already amassed NINE 7-win seasons. He went on to put up five more, including the three greatest seasons of his career (and possibly all time).
When ARod was making $25M per, Bonds was clearing $11M and then $18m.
At which point he was older and reasonably expected to be post-peak.
The first deal, he was 27 vs Soto at 26. A fair comparison.
When Arod got his Texas Deal he was 25 and Bonds 35. That just “might” have factored into the deals.
Just sayin’.
Bonds really wanted to go to and stay in San Francisco. I don’t think Soto gives cr*p as long as he’s getting paid.
“Imagine if Soto were going to be 30 years old in 2025 rather than 26 years old.”
Isn’t this kind of the point? He already kind of moves and plays the OF like he’s 30 and not 26. Where is the value in the youth? I guess it’s in his bat speed and approach? There’s been some back issues and some knee issues over his career. Let’s also imagine: what if he has more seasons like that ’22 year where he was 43rd in fWAR among position players. IF that were to happen, boo birds will be out in Queens. With this contract comes an absurd amount of pressure. As a Mets fan, I’m excited for the next few years…I also hope he opts out at 31….because if he moves likes this at 26, he will be an everyday DH by the time he’s 29-30.
As a Yankees fan, I remember being so happy when A-Rod opted out and so sad when he got re-signed. If they get Soto’s next five years and he leaves, that would be ideal for the Mets. It’s possible there would be a 10-year, $500+ million deal out there for him.
But similar to A-Rod, if the Mets win a championship, then it will be worth it.
The money is so ridiculous that it does take the fun out of it as a fan. I can still remember all the fun I had growing up playing and watching baseball, but it gets to a certain level where it’s difficult to care about people getting paid this much money to play a sport.
In inflation adjusted dollars, how does the Soto contract compare to the A-Rod contract at the time he signed it? I remember being absolutely floored by $252M figure. Do not get me wrong–$765M is a huge number, but for some reason, I feel less flabbergasted now. Is the frame of reference materially different due to inflation, or maybe my general expectation has evolved as contracts have shifted longer?