New York Mets to Acquire Francisco Lindor, Carlos Carrasco
The quiet that had descended over baseball since San Diego’s flurry of trades was shattered by the Mets on Thursday as the team landed Francisco Lindor, the most-coveted player likely available this winter, in a trade with Cleveland. And since most good ideas become even better with a bit of fit and finish, the team also secured the services of Carlos Carrasco, adding crucial depth to the rotation. In return, the Mets are sending Amed Rosario, Andrés Giménez, Josh Wolf, and Isaiah Greene to play at the Jake.
Full trade, per sources:
To Mets: Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco.
To Indians: Amed Rosario, Andrés Giménez, Josh Wolf, Isaiah Greene.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) January 7, 2021
At this point, it would have been more surprising if the Cleveland didn’t trade Lindor before the start of the 2021 season. This move was long expected, but the “where” has been one of baseball’s long-burning questions. Lindor’s 100 wRC+ in the abbreviated 2020 and his 114 wRC+ from 2019 were both well below the 130 he spiked in 2018, but at this point, we’re simply quibbling on degrees of superstardom. The Mets were serious second-tier contenders in the National League – San Diego and Los Angeles are in their own class — and even if you like Rosario and Giménez, you can’t pass up the opportunity to acquire a top-five shortstop in Lindor (he’s third in our Depth Charts, first in ZiPS).
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | .268 | .335 | .487 | 628 | 101 | 168 | 38 | 2 | 32 | 88 | 60 | 106 | 20 | 122 | 5.8 |
| Percentile | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | WAR |
| 90% | .286 | .362 | .581 | 618 | 110 | 177 | 44 | 3 | 44 | 105 | 70 | 84 | 32 | 153 | 8.5 |
| 80% | .279 | .352 | .541 | 621 | 107 | 173 | 42 | 2 | 39 | 99 | 67 | 93 | 27 | 141 | 7.4 |
| 70% | .274 | .345 | .518 | 624 | 103 | 171 | 40 | 2 | 36 | 93 | 64 | 98 | 23 | 133 | 6.7 |
| 60% | .272 | .341 | .503 | 626 | 102 | 170 | 39 | 2 | 34 | 91 | 62 | 103 | 21 | 128 | 6.3 |
| 50% | .268 | .335 | .487 | 628 | 101 | 168 | 38 | 2 | 32 | 88 | 60 | 106 | 20 | 122 | 5.8 |
| 40% | .263 | .330 | .471 | 630 | 99 | 166 | 37 | 2 | 30 | 85 | 58 | 111 | 18 | 117 | 5.3 |
| 30% | .263 | .327 | .459 | 632 | 97 | 166 | 36 | 2 | 28 | 83 | 56 | 115 | 16 | 113 | 4.9 |
| 20% | .260 | .321 | .439 | 635 | 96 | 165 | 34 | 1 | 26 | 79 | 53 | 121 | 15 | 106 | 4.3 |
| 10% | .252 | .311 | .414 | 638 | 92 | 161 | 32 | 1 | 23 | 74 | 50 | 129 | 12 | 97 | 3.4 |
Carlos Carrasco is as huge addition, as well, shoring up a pitching staff that lost Noah Syndergaard and Marcus Stroman for 2020. Syndergaard’s still recovering from Tommy John surgery and while Stroman will return after accepting the team’s Qualifying Offer, adding Carrasco gives the Mets more room to breathe. Based on the current roster, they would have had to enter the year with a recovering Thor, Steven Matz, and David Peterson, or else commit to moving Seth Lugo or Robert Gsellman out of the bullpen on a permanent basis. An addition from outside was necessary, and with the exception of Trevor Bauer, Carrasco is as tempting an addition as there is out there. Cookie completed an impressive comeback season in 2020, putting up a 3.59 FIP in 12 starts despite the immense challenge of fighting leukemia in the midst of the biggest public health emergency in the US in over a century.
| Year | W | L | ERA | G | GS | IP | H | ER | HR | BB | SO | ERA+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | 11 | 7 | 3.60 | 27 | 23 | 142.7 | 123 | 57 | 21 | 37 | 166 | 118 | 2.9 |
In return, Cleveland gets four Mets, including two (Rosario and Giménez) who will likely make up the team’s middle infield at the start of 2021, no doubt an attempt by the team to stay relevant in a juggernaut-less AL Central. Isaiah Greene and Josh Wolf are longer-term projects who won’t have an immediate impact. Wolf, a second-round draft pick for the Mets in 2019, is a raw, lanky pitcher with a fastball in the mid-90s. Greene is a very fast recent draftee, and the hope is almost certainly that he’ll be in center field in Cleveland in a few years.
It’s hard to avoid feeling generally underwhelmed by the players involved given that Cleveland is losing Lindor and Carrasco. But the return also reflects the fact that acquiring a year of Lindor isn’t the same thing as gaining two or three or four. The Dodgers gave the Red Sox a solid package for Mookie Betts, but they also escaped without giving up Dustin May, Josiah Gray, Tony Gonsolin, or Gavin Lux. Rosario and Giménez are both less risky for Cleveland than typical prospects are, similar to Alex Verdugo, and Wolf and Green represent the “moon shot.”
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | .283 | .316 | .431 | 575 | 77 | 163 | 27 | 8 | 14 | 61 | 26 | 119 | 16 | 96 | 1.9 |
| Percentile | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | WAR |
| 90% | .299 | .336 | .527 | 571 | 82 | 171 | 33 | 11 | 25 | 75 | 30 | 94 | 26 | 124 | 3.9 |
| 80% | .293 | .328 | .476 | 573 | 80 | 168 | 30 | 9 | 19 | 68 | 28 | 104 | 20 | 110 | 2.9 |
| 70% | .289 | .323 | .465 | 574 | 78 | 166 | 29 | 9 | 18 | 64 | 27 | 108 | 18 | 106 | 2.6 |
| 60% | .287 | .320 | .442 | 575 | 77 | 165 | 28 | 8 | 15 | 63 | 26 | 115 | 17 | 100 | 2.1 |
| 50% | .283 | .316 | .431 | 575 | 77 | 163 | 27 | 8 | 14 | 61 | 26 | 119 | 16 | 96 | 1.9 |
| 40% | .280 | .311 | .424 | 576 | 75 | 161 | 27 | 7 | 14 | 60 | 25 | 122 | 15 | 93 | 1.7 |
| 30% | .276 | .306 | .406 | 577 | 74 | 159 | 25 | 7 | 12 | 58 | 24 | 126 | 14 | 87 | 1.2 |
| 20% | .273 | .303 | .393 | 578 | 72 | 158 | 24 | 6 | 11 | 56 | 23 | 132 | 12 | 83 | 0.9 |
| 10% | .263 | .290 | .367 | 581 | 71 | 153 | 23 | 5 | 9 | 54 | 20 | 142 | 11 | 73 | 0.2 |
| Year | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | WAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 | .249 | .305 | .385 | 421 | 57 | 105 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 40 | 21 | 100 | 25 | 82 | 1.3 |
| Percentile | BA | OBP | SLG | AB | R | H | 2B | 3B | HR | RBI | BB | SO | SB | OPS+ | WAR |
| 90% | .266 | .327 | .482 | 417 | 60 | 111 | 21 | 9 | 17 | 48 | 25 | 83 | 42 | 111 | 2.9 |
| 80% | .261 | .320 | .433 | 418 | 59 | 109 | 20 | 8 | 12 | 44 | 24 | 87 | 33 | 98 | 2.2 |
| 70% | .255 | .312 | .412 | 420 | 58 | 107 | 19 | 7 | 11 | 42 | 22 | 92 | 30 | 90 | 1.7 |
| 60% | .252 | .309 | .402 | 420 | 57 | 106 | 19 | 7 | 10 | 41 | 22 | 97 | 27 | 87 | 1.5 |
| 50% | .249 | .305 | .385 | 421 | 57 | 105 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 40 | 21 | 100 | 25 | 82 | 1.3 |
| 40% | .247 | .303 | .382 | 421 | 56 | 104 | 18 | 6 | 9 | 39 | 21 | 102 | 23 | 81 | 1.2 |
| 30% | .244 | .298 | .365 | 422 | 55 | 103 | 17 | 5 | 8 | 38 | 20 | 105 | 22 | 75 | 0.9 |
| 20% | .241 | .294 | .352 | 423 | 54 | 102 | 16 | 5 | 7 | 37 | 19 | 111 | 19 | 71 | 0.7 |
| 10% | .235 | .285 | .334 | 425 | 53 | 100 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 35 | 17 | 118 | 16 | 64 | 0.2 |
If anything, this trade should indicate that the Mets new owner, Steve Cohen, ain’t playing around. For Mets fans, their large-market team finally acting like one rather than a mom-and-pop ice cream stand has to be absolutely delicious. For Cleveland fans, well, you really deserve better. We’ll have more on the deal, including long-term projections for those involved, a little later today.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
while i would love for steve cohen to essentially become lex luthor and sign the rest of the free agents, this puts the Mets in an interesting (and more realistic) spot to sign a number of depth guys and bounce-back candidates. getting two (or three) of La Stella, Kluber, Paxton, or any of the top end relievers would fit within the remaining $28 million the Mets have left before the luxury tax.
Wow, this return feels SUPER light. Especially given Carrasco is included.
Question is Carrasco projected to provided more value from this deal than Lindor? Even accounting for salary?
It’s not an outlandish suggestion.
Over on Baseball Trade Values, they put an excess value of $32.8 million on Lindor and $8.8 million on Carrasco. Obviously we have no idea how the Mets and Indians valued those two but that seems quite light for Carrasco. Yeah, the leukemia is a concern but he has a strong track record, pitched well in 2020, and is projected for 3.3 WAR next year. Plus his contract is quite modest, compared to say Darvish (2/$27 or $3/38).
https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trades/trade-36119/
I think their math is a bit off for most pieces tbh. They have Gimenez as a 25M or whatever while they had Verdugo as a 45M at the time of his trade.
Verdugo was a 50FV prospect that peaked around 50 but had dropped down to 120 or something before his first full year, while Gimenez was a 50FV who was sitting around 90 before his first year. That feels similar to me, and Verdugo put up a 110WRC+ while Gimenez put up 105 (albeit in a small sample).
My math was as follows:
Lindor (40) + Cookie (25) for Gimenez (30), Rosario (8), Greene (8), Wolf (8)
It’s light but it isn’t that light.
Thanks I’m not that familiar with the that website but it was the one “objective” evaluation that I could find. So I appreciate your insight.
How is 1 year of Lindor worth 40??
He’s quite good at baseball
“Verdugo was a 50FV prospect that peaked around 50 but had dropped down to 120 or something before his first full year.”
And then Verdugo played like what you would expect from a 60FV prospect in 106 games with wrc+ 114, not 110.
I think you’re right. Dan correctly suggests the Betts & Price trade as the proper reference, though Price is not as good and more expensive than Carrasco.
Gimenez = Verdugo (both under control for 5 years at the time of the trade)
Greene = Wong
Rosario (3 years control) + Wolf = Downs (FV50+)??
I wouldn’t trade Jeter Downs and Carrasco for Price, Rosario, and Wolf, but maybe Longenhagen REALLY likes Wolf & Greene?
It’s a fine reference point, but Mookie Betts was better than Lindor.
Wolf is really good, Greene…not as much. Valuation of Rosario is probably the biggest wild-card here. There’s a school of thought that he’s a backup shortstop, and another that sees him as a three-win player. I would not be surprised if Cleveland was much more optimistic about his future than the Mets.
Greene has a chance to be very, very good.
Very toolsy. Questionable hit tool. You get 20 of them and 6 turn into platoon guys and one becomes a first-division regular. FV40 sounds about right.
From all the reports I’ve read, this just isn’t true. It’s nice to fall back to a stereotype but Greene actually has a plus hit tool but is a slap hitter who may or may not develop power. Kind of like xavier edwards and cj abrams. Totally different archetype.
You think so? I guess we’ll find out.
He is very toolsy, and he’s a high school kid with a lot of room for development. But I honestly don’t think the hit tool will be in question. He’s not a sleeper because those who know, know. The Mets were absolutely giddy to draft him where they did.
But he’s definitely under the radar. Greene has great defense and true top end speed; as a lefty bat, he’ll play CF on the regular and bat atop a lineup. I honestly think he’s the best player the Mets gave up in the deal based on Rosario’s struggles.
Not sure where you get the assessments on Wolf and Greene. Not sure I agree.
Eric, mostly. But I’m sure there are other assessments out there that I’m not familiar with.
Some players (for a variety of reasons) perform better outside of NY.
And expectations were very high on Rosario.
He’s also very likely moving to 2B which will remove some extra pressure.
Neither Rosario nor Gimenez are Lindor individually or combined but they are genuine major leaguers with some upside. And Lindor was leaving anyway.
It’s a CLEVELAND trade…
I think Greene > Wong tbh. Wong is still listed everywhere at 40. Greene is fluctuating on lists right now between 50 and 45. I suspect he will be 45 on FG.
No, it’s not. Lindor has one year left and he is not as good as Betts was last year. Gimenez is an FV50, and he’s the primary return for Lindor. The surplus value on Lindor’s deal is basically the same as Craig’s valuation of a Gimenez-level prospect. The Carrasco part of it is highly uncertain because of his health, and while he’s definitely worth more than his contract, the question of “how much” is very unknown. Rosario, Wolf, and the outfield guy whose name I can’t remember is about what we would expect. And I would add, the valuation of Rosario is kind of up in the air for a guy who has been around. So much talent, so little production; I would not be surprised if Cleveland has a much higher evaluation than the Mets do.
The surplus value seems to match up. I don’t like using “50 FV” as a classification for value and prefer using spot on Top 100. #40 and #100 are both 50 FV, but #40 is worth around 40m and #100 around 15m. I wish fangraphs would add a 50+ FV tier for this problem. 50 FV is too broad of a category
SELL 👏 THE 👏 TEAM 👏
As an Indians fan, I don’t hate it. I don’t love it either but I don’t hate it.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see either prospect in the 45FV tier when the Mets list is updated. They are both listed as 50s on MLB.com (which I think overvalued guys a lot but either way).
It does feel light tho. I think they should have gotten another prospect.
I’m afraid you might be talking yourself into being OK with the return because the alternative hurts too much. The Mets farm is very thin, and the two guys they got were barely in the top 10. Both are super raw and were drafted higher than expected. Essentially just lotto tickets. Rosario is a utility player. Gimenez has some talent, but will likely be displaced by Arias or Freeman. To me, this feels like Cleveland with no leverage and both teams knew it, so the Mets put together a package of guys they don’t particularly need with no reference to Cleveland’s needs.
That seems a little too bearish on both Rosario and Giminez, but Cleveland’s farm system does seem to have better options than both of them. So who knows.
They’re Major Leaguers while Cleveland’s crop is still in the minors so they’re immediately useful. If they’re displaced in 2022 or 2023, they’ll be tradeable.
It’s Cleveland being Cleveland.
Rosario still has a chance to be a plus everday shortstop…I’d say he has some value for the long haul, more than say Orlando Arcia. I like Gimenez as well, some Jose Ramirez upside though with more swing-and-miss in his game.
I agree with Kevbot below that Cleveland should have snagged one of the OF/corner types on the Mets instead of one of the two SS they’ve added to their stable. Smith or Davis might have been better upside plays for them as keepers, or guys to flip if they finally go full rebuild.
Where are you seeing JRam upside with Gimenez? He doesn’t run elite K or BB rates like JRam and doesn’t hit the ball hard either
Some upside with power, and BB rates were decent in lower minors – he’s been quite young for his level as he’s advanced up the chain. But, as I noted, he has more swing-and-miss issues than JRam did at a similar stage in his development.
So, upside is JRam without the elite hit tool. More likely outcome may be more like say J. P. Crawford.
Rather large gulf between Jose Ramirez and J.P. Crawford.
To be fair JRam certainly doesn’t hit the ball hard either.
A case can be made that Cleveland has been stealth-rebuilding since 2019.
Jose Ramirez upside is a little much. Ramirez is a top 5 player in the game
You’re basically looking at the worst case scenario for both Rosario and Gimenez. Rosario was once a top 10 prospect in the league, and has shown flashes of all-star caliber talent. Gimenez had a great rookie season and just has to do what he’s already done to be an above average player. Of course, lots of folks will take the under on both of these guys, but my point is that there’s a bit more variance with these players than you might expect for guys with this amount of service time, and if we look back in 3 years and see both players perform above expectations, it wouldn’t actually be that surprising.
I do think this is a little light because I think the bear is more likely than the bull on both these guys. But a rebuilding team should be looking for guys like this that can provide unexpected value with a few tweaks or minor improvements in the case of Rosario or guys that are beating projections without any real red flags like Gimenez.
well said. agree 100%.
It’s not that bad a trade in terms of value, but it’s hard to not conflate the frustration with a team with the Cy Young winner making league minimum and an MVP candidate on a team friendly contract for 3 years rebuilding.
This is what gets me. The return is ok, but the Indians should be in win now mode, not rebuilding.
Or actually rebuilding.
Full disclosure, Mets fan here, and I watched most of Gimenez’s games last year. The plus side: he is a very good, instinctual SS with soft hands and a good arm, and has good bat to ball skills, and can spray the ball all over the field. The down side: Consistent ~ 5% BB rate over the last 3 years and 22% hard hit rate (86 EV). So end of the day, he’s likely to be a glove-first SS that could grow into a high-average/middling-OBP guy in the coming years. I really like him but (assuming there is an extension coming for Lindor) I have no problem trading him for a top-3 SS in his prime. No brainer there. As for the rest of the deal, the shine is off Rosario, I don’t think he’s ever going to be much more than a .300 OBP guy with some speed and power but not plus at either; and I really liked both Wolf and Greene (check out his sweet lefty swing), but they’re both so far away that they’re a crapshoot. To get Cookie Carrasco back in this deal is the icing on the cake, exactly what the Mets needed. Some injury risk but that’s true of any pitcher and he has a tantalizing mix of pitches. I’m really surprised he’s been in the bigs since 2009 and turns 34 soon! I would’ve guessed he was much younger, it doesn’t feel like he’s been around that long.
The return isn’t awful and anyone who thinks it is doesn’t know anything about baseball. Like come on.
Not bagging on this return, but I suspect the Tribe coulda done pretty well selling Carrasco separately. SP FA market even weaker with Sugano out.
So then the question becomes was there such a dearth of serious Lindor suitors that CLE felt compelled to use the Carrasco sweetener just to ensure they didn’t get stuck unloading Lindor and his salary for a truly embarrassing return. Feels like Mets knew they were in the driver’s seat during negotiations.
Wolf was not drafted earlier than expected. “Wolf was viewed by some as a potential late first round pick, and was ranked the 36th overall prospect by MLB.com, 54th overall by Baseball America.”
Pretty much every list I can find from last year- other than FG– shows Greene projected in the 50-70 range, and the Mets picked him at 69, so he doesn’t really seem to have been drafted much earlier than expected, either.
When Cleveland targets a pitcher, I’ve learned to trust that they see something there they can work with.
Kluber was a throw-in.
Clevinger came cheap.
Bauer was supposed to be uncoachable.
They don’t always pull rabbits out of the hat but it’s not wise to bet against them. As the saying goes, one is happenstance, twice is coincidence, but three and beyond is on purpose. Somebody knows something.
You forgot…Bieber doesn’t throw hard enough.
Minor quibble, but the Mets still have Stroman for 2021, as he accepted their QO.
I honestly like Greene as a prospect, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see Wolfe as a #4 starter or back-end bullpen guy in a couple years given Cleveland’s aptitude for pitching development, but this return isn’t good enough with Carrasco as part of the outgoing package. They should’ve gotten at least one more near-term prospect, even as deflated as the market is now.
I meant that they lost him to injury in 2020! Perhaps I was unclear.
“…while Stroman will return after accepting the team’s Qualifying Offer, adding Carrasco gives the Mets more room to breathe. Based on the current roster, they would have had to enter the year with a recovering Thor, Steven Matz, and David Peterson, or else commit to moving Seth Lugo or Robert Gsellman out of the bullpen on a permanent basis.”
Due to the preceding sentence, “enter the year” has an obviously implied “behind Degrom and Stroman.” Definitively both clear and grammatically correct.
Quibbles, minor or major, should usually be kept to yourself.
It’s shocking to me a trade involving 2 MLB players leaving the Mets to go to the Indians somehow didn’t include any logjam of the defensive positions the Mets have too many of and Cleveland sorely lack. Smith/Alonso/Conforto/Nimmo/Davis all seem like at least one of them fits better on Cleveland’s roster, no?
In theory yes. But they have no 2B. And obviously trading Lindor opens up a huge hole at SS. Meanwhile, yeah the OF isn’t very good, but they do have a ton of guys who can play there – 40 man roster has Bauers, Luplow, Mercado, Naylor, Reyes, Zimmer, and Daniel Johnson. (plus Nolan Jones) There’s at least potential there, even if there’s a 75-90% chance that the potential goes unfulfilled.
Plus it is doubtful they’ll go into the season and $40M.
With the FA market as cold as it’s shaping up they can pick up some short term help.
The main problem is that the real logjam for the Mets is at first base, which is where all of Alonso, Davis, and Smith should be playing. So logically, it would make more sense to ship out Smith than either Rosario or Gimenez but that won’t happen for a couple of reasons. The first is that Smith is almost certainly a better player, overall, than Rosario and probably better than Gimenez. The second is that Cleveland is probably really into the idea of giving Josh Naylor a shot and Naylor is pretty similar to Smith in a lot of ways except he’s cheaper and more unproven.
yeah – giving up Dom Smith would have been too much for Lindor, honestly. There’s an easy argument to make that Smith is better than Alonso, straight up.
The Mets need the DH very badly in order to let their best bats hit all the time.
I would argue Smith has a good chance of being more valuable than Alonso, as well.
On the one hand, it’s not crazy to think that Rosario and Gimenez are cost-controlled options that could combine for more WAR than Lindor both next year and going forward. On the other hand, the Mets also got three years of Carrasco.
I think its crazy to suggest they would combine for more war in 2021. Its more likely that neither is worth 1 win than they combine for 5+.
Rosario was close to 3 wins in 2019 and Giménez put up 1 win in 50 games in 2020. I don’t think it’s likely they’ll top 5 wins, but it wouldn’t be shocking if they did.
Don’t assume Lindor is automatically going to deliver 5 WAR.
His ceiling is higher but his floor is lower. Look to 2019 more than 2018. He is a “smaller” player and injuries happen. Again, 2019.
The problem for Cleveland is that Rosario + Gimenez will certainly put up less WAR than Lindor + Cesar Hernandez. And then take out Carrasco as well and this seems like a definite setback for Cleveland. I have them pegged as an 81 win team next year. And I’m not sure how they get to 90 wins in the next few years.
I get why they traded them both away but their reluctance to not blow things up is mind-boggling.
Attendance is already low.
Blow it up and they might as well move the team.
Deal seems about right. Lindor is overrated.
The voting on the comments has been weird so far, but I do sort of agree with the premise of this argument. Lindor has a career 118 wRC+, but it has dipped the last two years. His barrel rate has tumbled, his max EV/avg ev has tumbled as well. His plate discipline numbers have gotten worse as well.
He also seems to have gotten quite a bit slower. His home to first went from 4.21 to 4.42, and had 0 bolts all of last year (and in 2019) with well below average sprint speed for his position. Guys like Matt Olson, Kyle Schwarber, etc had a faster peak speed last year. His defense still seems great, but if he loses another step you could see that slipping as well. Guy is getting slower and also not hitting the ball as hard for multiple years running. Not hard to envision him being the next guy Mets fans complain about.
I am definitely taking the under on Dan’s 50th percentile projection here–that seems awfully high. So in that sense, I would say he is overrated. But since the 30th percentile projection is still approximately a 5-win player, it is likely true that he is overrated and also really good.
Because the contract people think he should get isnt with giving to someone with his WRC+. Dan himself thinks lindor is better than Rendom which to me is crazy.
I would guess that projection puts him as the 3rd-5th best position player in baseball. I think there’s a case to be made for him as a top 10 position player but there is something about guy who have a season in their early 20s that is completely out of their minds that makes projection systems love them forever (see: Harper, Bryce).
Meh, I’d say more see Carlos Correa, Gleyber Torres. Remember when Correa had a higher WAR projection that Mike Trout over the next X years? They lose their mind for middle infielders hitting young it seems.
Harper still has quite good projections, but he massively underperformed expected stats last year, which isn’t the norm for him. He seems to have changed his swing plane, and basically just got unlucky last year and still had a 151 wRC+. He cut his K rate from 26.1% down to 17.6% and it doesn’t seem to be something people are talking about. Expected stats think he wa the third best hitter in baseball, behind Soto and Freeman only, and his expected line was close to his mvp line 307/435/657. If anything the projection seems low on Harper.
Well, now…
He is a very good player regardless of what pundits might think.
The odds are, however, that 2018 isn’t repeatable.
Injuries happen and, worse, the aftereffects linger.
Besides, what if he *doesn’t* sign an extension?
How many will think it’s a great deal if he walks and signs with the Yanks?
If they don’t sign him and the Yanks pick him up that implies he had a good to great season. So while that would irk the fans to no extent it would please them to know that Lindor performed well. Also there are several big name SS available next season so it’s feasible that if Lindor doesn’t pan out there are options in free agency.
IMO it’s a little shocking that this trade didn’t come with a guarantee of an extension. Giving up two MLB’ers for a one year rental is always tough so hopefully they have a plan in place…. they can always trade him away at the deadline if things aren’t working.
I think this is an example of the current financial situation caused by covid changing trade value. The excess value on one year of Lindor while making a not insignificant amount just doesnt draw the same. In other years teams arent as worried about single year pay roll for a superstar.
The Mets took a lesson from the Padres: cash strapped franchises worried about income flows for next season are selling really low. I wish more teams would be playing this angle (for example, I bet you could get Story and/or Blackmon out of Colorado).
Padres don’t seem very strapped for cash- They just signed 2 Cy Young-caliber lefties
He’s saying the Cubs and Rays are cash-strapped, not the Padres.
Whoops, that’s right- They weren’t bought, they were traded
I believe he meant the Padres made deals with cash strapped franchise; not that the Padres themselves are cash strapped. Although, why the Cubs are cash strapped and the Padres aren’t is another discussion in itself.
You misread his comment. Try again.
Just looking at it from my usual Cubs-centric plus disdain for owners perspective:
– Gross that a scumbag like Cohen will gain in reputation and popularity from this, another huge win for the owners of the sport. We’re T-minus how many months before this sport officially outs itself as the NFL but baseball?
– While I desperately wanted Lindor on the Cubs, like it made so much sense, an equivalent package from the Cubs would have been something like Ian Happ, Nico Hoerner, Owen Caissie, and Kohl Franklin and that’s a little heavy for me, depth killer
– I really like Gimenez as a player, think Cleveland being Cleveland made a shrewd pickup. There’s legit two way talent in him and he’s ready to go now
– While Lindor adds to their overall defense, the Mets are immediately going to feel losing Gimenez on defense in part due to how he covered multiple positions extremely well…on either side of Lindor, they’re going to be playing bad defense
– The Rosario pickup made this from a meh pickup to a pretty damn good return by Cleveland. It’s not that I’m so high on Rosario himself, just that these former tippy top tier prospects who are still crazy young have alot of Value (I really want that word stricken from the English language btw, would be happy to never see it again) still in this sport so bogged down by uncertainty and prospects simulating competition for a year
– I like Greene *alot* during the draft, sneaky quality add
@SenorGato: As a Cubs fan, who would you rather have in the org, Bobby Witt Jr. or Ed Howard?
I see them as same tier kind of talents but yeah I do prefer Howard. Tbf to me, been saying this since like the Summer of 2019. I was extremely high on Howard even before the Cubs drafted him, saw him as one of the handful best talents in the loaded 2020 draft
Chicago got two of my favorite players in the 2020 draft: I’m almost as high on Jared Kelley as I am Howard, also considered him one of the handful best in the draft and only behind Lacy among pitchers IIRC
You criticize an owner who is trying to win? The criticism should be directed to why your Cubs (and talk about scumbags) aren’t trying to win.
The larger question is what to do with franchises that cannot, or will not, compete without revenue sharing. There is no value to baseball in having a franchise in Cleveland that will not compete. Better to move that club to a more vital economic area, Nashville, Portland, etc.
The only thing Cohen is trying to win is the minds and dollars of the proles. He doesn’t give a flying dang how some dumb sports team does on the field outside of making him money and and giving him leverage/control, which actually honestly makes him sound like a modern sports fan. He doesn’t care about spending a little up front to secure decades of financial dominance
My guess is this is all leading to him bullying the city and smaller owners into a terrific price (for him) for the real estate of and around Citi Field…and that’s just the early years of ownership
A scumbag for insider trading?
Apparently. Though the Ricketts family wins no prizes either.
Oh, is that one of the good multi-billion dollar crimes? White collar criminals are criminals, just because they don’t get their hands dirty doing poor people crimes and can bribe or pay their way out of an official title doesn’t mean they’re not
You bang this drum every time his name comes up, but there wasn’t enough evidence to even charge him with a crime despite the giant target that Preet Bahara had on his back. He’s not a criminal even if YOU think he committed criminal acts. People at his firm committed a crime but that doesn’t make him a criminal.
I appreciate the percentile numbers in these projections! I am fascinated that ZiPS 20% projection for Rosario has him outperforming his career averages for AVG and OBP over 1500+ PA. I’m not arguing they should be worse or anything- I’m just genuinely curious where the confidence comes from! For his sake, I hope ZiPS is right.
Because he’s still only 25. Most systems assume improved play with experience until sometime in their mid-20s, so maybe that’s baked in there.
I understand that, and it would make sense to have as the 40-60% outcome. Putting those numbers in the 20% makes it look like those numbers- basically matching his career best numbers in 2019- are his near worst-case scenario.
Gimenez is a stud. The fact that Cleveland wasn’t also able to acquire Dom Smith feels like a loss
Mets did very well here. Even if they don’t lock up Lindor long-term, they can go to the 2022 free-agent class to either get a stud SS for the long-haul or get a short-term plug while they wait for Mauricio to be MLB-ready.
And they get Carrasco to boot.
The Mets are very good here. Even if Lindor is not closed for a long time, they can switch to a free agency by 2022.
And they had Carrasco to move on.
Carrasco feels like overkill.
Trying to find ways to look at it. I did take a look at Carrascos game log from last year, and of his 12 games started, 11 were against below league average offenses (significantly most the time) and the only one that was against an above average offense (Twins) they only had a 101 wRC+. The Marlins would of been the 2nd best team he faced last year. His average opponent had a 88wRC+. 26 of 30 teams had a wRC+ higher than that last year. He somehow managed to fade the Whitesox, and just faced all the bad teams multiple times. Small sample sizes all over the place, but I don’t trust that any of the pitchers from either of the Centrals last year are as good as they seemed. When you couple that with his myriad of health issues, and their recent timing with Clevinger, maybe they feel like this was the last time he was going to have any value? But you’d have to think someone would of given them more than this?
I believe his 10-5 rights kick in soon. Cleveland was definitely going to trade him this offseason. (and, I can imagine, the upside of having a possible 4-win pitcher on their team might not have been enough to outweigh being scared they wouldn’t have him at all)
that makes sense
Good call – per b-ref’s contracts page Carrasco is at 9 years and 147 days so just on the cusp of 10/5 (prior to the trade of course).
Regardless of any of this, Carlos gets 10 and 5 rights this year. That is a big thing no one seems to be talking about
The trade value seems to be based on the Mets only getting 1 year of Lindor.
Lindor and Cleveland never worked out an extension. Do you think he would be more incentivized to sign an extension with the Mets, especially given the current state of Free Agency?
No.
The trade return, in terms of value, is fine. Cleveland fans should have no complaints there. But Cleveland is so obviously set on never taking too big a step back that they’re never going to have another window of contention like the one they just missed. Guys like Brett Baty, Francisco Alvarez, and (to a lesser extent) Pete Crow-Anderson are the kinds of guys who would line up really well with that wave of prospects coming in 2023 and 2024. So while I think they got good value (and Gimenez is better than all of them), I don’t like what this says about Cleveland’s future. I think I would have wanted one or more of those other guys instead of Rosario.
I think it’s especially bad for them because this return is in a similar shape to the Clevinger trade, a bunch of interesting young major leaguers and mid-level prospects that add up to a good value in a vacuum, but none of them seem like they’re ever going to be as good as the stars they gave up.
I knew they would, but it shocked me nonetheless.
The Mets, I think, did great here, especially if they can extend Lindor. The infield defense was awful, and having Lindor really helps. He’s young too, to extending him makes a lot of sense. While Gimenez is really good, if you extend Lindor he’s superfluous, and Rosario was made superfluous by Gimenez (although personally I would have liked to see them try him at third base). Anytime the two best pieces going back are made superfluous by the guy you’re getting, you’re doing pretty well. Carrasco locks down the middle of the rotation there, and has #2 upside if he’s healthy. I think Wolf is a particularly interesting prospect but he’s a ways from the majors.
The one fly in the ointment is that I think this probably takes them out of the Springer race if they extend Lindor, but I think giving Lindor $30M a year over the next 8 years is fine when the alternative is giving Springer $30M a year over the next 5 years. Would they be better off with Lindor at shortstop and a Jackie Bradley / Marisnick platoon in CF, or with Springer in CF and Gimenez at shortstop? The first one is almost guaranteed better on defense, and probably a little worse on offense, and it’s more expensive. But it wouldn’t bother me.
As a Mets fan, I’m dancing. This is a tremendous deal for the Mets.
It’s a light return for Lindor if it’s January 2019 or 2020. Here in 2021, in the short-term, as we see the value of players changing, it’s probably a very fair return in-the-moment. I like Gimenez and think he will develop; I was hoping the Mets would leave him and short and trade Rosario and Davis for pitching and 3B help. But I will gladly take this deal.
I don’t like the package a lot. Giminez is a decent prospect but the profile is focused on defense and not exciting offensively.
As I wrote in the Indians system post by eric I would have preferred that the Indians package 3 of their young high upside but high variance guys with lindor two get two real top prospects.
The package they got is probably fair value considering surplus value but they are likely more future average players and since the Indians can’t afford to pay stars they need to have stars in their system.
So to stay competitive I would have preferred them consolidating some of their depth plus lindor for high upside and long team control.
I don’t hate the value the Indians got but I’m not sure the composition of it is the best way to keep the Indians competitive whose success was based in cost controlled superstars (lindor, ramirez, bauer…) Moreso than on depth.
Obviously they could change direction and go for more of a depth based approach but that would be a big pivot in strategy.
You’re assuming they didn’t try and fail to obtain such a return. What a GM does depends entirely on what his opposite number will accept.
Yeah, I think the 19m salary also plays a big role in that, in the current economic climate not many want to pay that.
We can’t forget that the Indians also lose about 28m salary. That costs a lot of prospect value.
At least Ken Rosenthal is still a well respected man in baseball.
He’s a well respected man about baseball,
Doing the best things so conservatively.
Lol, so who’s baseball’s Lola?
But is he healthy in his body and his mind?
Yeah, that’s true. He’s not kinky.
Andres Gimenez last season in AA .250/309/387, 9 hrs 28sbs, 105 wRC+ . Profiles as a glove first regular with a league avg bat.
Francisco Lindor last season in AA 278/352/389 6 hrs, 25sbs 109 wRC+ Profiles as a glove first high floor regular (due to his eye) with a league avg bat.
Obv Lindor was a mega prospect and Gimenez was not, but crazier things have happened.
I think the story here is at least partly that Lindor had a massive power surge that coincided with the juiced ball. It’s true that wRC+ normalizes this stuff but the ball does create some winners and losers. There were reports that the balls were different again this year, and so I wouldn’t be surprised if he never returns to being a 30-home-run guy. I think we’re looking at a slightly-above-average bat with elite defense at a premium position.
Can’t underrate that massive difference in OBP tho
I like Gimenez, but for the Indians I would definitely think more hopefully a SS version of Jason Kipnis than Francisco Lindor in ceiling…Great defender though, blew me away whenever I happened to catch the Mets in 2020
A SS version of Kipnis? Where do I sign?
Lindor had some back babip luck last year, has way more power and a much better k-bb rate than giminez.
Lindor
K: 15%
Bb: 9%
Iso: .157
Giminez:
K: 21%
Bb: 5%
Iso: 136
Lindor is way better and had some massive babip and hr/fb bad luck.
He is projected for a 118 wrc+ vs 85 for giminez.
Power gains have happened but lindor was two years younger and at 21 that is much more likely than at 23 (like giminez is next season)
No, for both those seasons they were both 20 years old. So the age matches up. Gimenez last game in 2019 was on 9/2, he turned 21 on 9/4, so he played 0 games as a 21 year old, entire season he was 20.
In no way was I trying to say that Lindor isn’t way better, obviously. I am simply comparing age 20 AA stats from two players who were the center of trades for each other. Lindor obviously compares favorably, no one is doubting that. I do think Gimenez has a chance for a lot of growth. Seems to me like he made a conscious change to hit for more power, since he went from 14.4% k rate, to a 21.3% k rate at the same level the following year. His gb rate went from 60.5 to 49.8 and his fb rate went from 27.2 to 34%. Seems like he is trying to make a change, and Cleveland has had pretty amazing success getting power out of guys who weren’t supposed to have any power like Lindor and Jram, and guy is going to be 22 nearly all of next season.
Love the move by the Mets. The East will be fun this year and this gives the Mets an inside track on signing Lindor long term. I feel for Indian fans though. Lindor is fun to watch, they should have signed him long term. The Central is very winnable this year and the Indians were in a good position to be in the fight.
Would be nice to read a fangraphs article on my phone, without getting virus warnings. And the congratulations you’ve won spam.
Yeah I had to close and re-open the article 4 times to finish it.
My first thought when the full trade was announced was Holy crap the Mets got Lindor and Carasco without giving up a top prospect! Lindor is an elite player easy top ten player in the sport and Carasco is one of the most underrated pitchers in baseball and now you don’t have to sign Bauer. Thank you Sandy and Porter! I feel like Brodie if had money would have traded for Lindor too but he would have traded Maurico and Baty in the trade instead of Greene and Wolf. I can’t wait to buy a Lindor jersey!
I like the prospects that Cleveland got back. I’m really intrigued by Isaiah Greene. The Major Leaguers that Cleveland got back are not really the type of players I love, but they should be useful regulars. The most important part of it, in Cleveland’s view, is that they’re cheap, and will be cheap for a while.
Both sides get they want. The Mets turn into a top contender and Cleveland gets their financial relief. It sucks that Cleveland has to go down this route, but it’s not like we didn’t see it coming.
So, from a baseball-quality standpoint, there will only be about two divisions worth watching this year?
Hey now, the White Sox – Twins competition should be as interesting, as will the Padres – Dodgers one. The Blue Jays are going to try and make a splash and while the Rays took a step back they were better than the Yankees last year. Plus the NL East has been interesting for a couple of seasons and will continue to be interesting. That’s four divisions.
That said, the AL West is filled with teams that were good last year and taking steps back, and the NL Central is perpetually frustrating.
Cap & floor would solve competitiveness issues.
Only if teams are guaranteed the cap amount through revenue pooling.
Otherwise some teams would still have to move players that get too expensive.
Cleveland really doesn’t have the revenue base to keep up a payroll big enough to satisfy the union as a cap. And right now they have a cash crunch between the year without attendance and buying back Sherman’s shares so they might not be able to meet any floor the union would accept. ‘Cause I don’t see the union settling for less than a $100M floor.
It is no accident that their budget reduction began just as Sherman started to negotiate for the Royals.
Nice job, Anaheim . . .
What could Anaheim have offered up to meet Cleveland’s “now and later” needs. Two young major leaguers + two 40-ish prospects? Fletcher +…? I’m thinking Cleveland would *start* with Adell, especially with Cookie in the deal.
How happy is the King of Zamuda about now?
Why’d you drop the Lindor/Cookie/Dessert sub headline? It was great! I wish I took a screenshot
Nice write up, thanks Dan. If the previous Mets ownership operated like a mom-and-pop ice cream stand, I think Cubs current owners think they have a frozen banana stand.
After watching a lot of Gimenez, I like his game. If he develops a bit of power, I could see him as kind of a lefty Elvis Andrus….or even a young Asdrubel Cabrera. His glove is not as good as the young version of Cabrera, but it’s very good. He makes tough plays look routine, that’s the best compliment I can give him.