Now the Dodgers Are in Some Real Trouble
The Dodgers aren’t in first place in their division. And it’s not just that they’re further out of first than the Rockies and Giants. They’re further out of first in the NL West than the White Sox are in the AL Central. The Dodgers have sputtered, and the Diamondbacks have been hot, and that’s created a meaningful separation. A seven-game difference on the last day of April is nothing to sneeze at.
But I don’t think there’s been all that much worry, not yet. This morning, by our math, the Dodgers were still favored to finish in first. Certain little things have changed, sure, but remember that last year, the Dodgers had a stretch in which they lost 16 of 17 games, and they still finished with the best record in baseball. They won the NL West by a mile. The Dodgers are one of those teams you give the benefit of the doubt. If the roster isn’t too terribly different, you should expect that the team will find its own level.
Well, the roster is going to look terribly different:
Today, the Dodgers recalled Breyvic Valera from Triple-A Oklahoma City and placed Corey Seager on the 10-day DL with a right UCL sprain. Seager will undergo Tommy John surgery and will miss the remainder of the season.
— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) April 30, 2018
Corey Seager is done for 2018, having never fully recovered from the elbow problem that dogged him down the stretch. The team decided to try the rest-and-rehab plan, as opposed to sending Seager into surgery right away, but it didn’t work out. Justin Turner will be back sometime soon, sure. Yet Seager is among baseball’s very best shortstops. Enrique Hernandez is not. Breyvic Valera is not. Chris Taylor might now return to short for all I know, but that’s more shuffling than a solution. There’s no way to lose someone like Seager and not be a lot worse off for it. (Update: for now, looks like Taylor to short.)
Given how the Dodgers have always prioritized depth, I’m sure they’ll try to figure out a way to proceed via internal options. To his credit, Valera has seemingly learned how to hit, and maybe he can blossom out of nowhere. You don’t often see important trades this early anyway, so expect the Dodgers to stay as they are. But of course, one player looms, and that player would be Manny Machado. Machado is good, and the Orioles are bad. I don’t need to explain this to you. It’s not something that’ll happen tomorrow, but it’s something you’re likely to hear about more and more often as the season draws closer to June. Even if the Dodgers never engage in serious talks, writers are going to want them to, so the chatter will be there. It’s too obvious a link to leave alone.
Machado wouldn’t feel like a Dodgers-y move. Squeezing value out of Breyvic Valera or looking toward Alex Verdugo and/or Andrew Toles would feel like Dodgers-y moves. But then, these are special circumstances. The Dodgers are in a hole, and they’ve been substantially weakened. It’s going to be that much more difficult to make up lost ground.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
I immediately thought of Machado when I heard the terrible news. I know it’s not a Dodgers-like move, but I would like to see it at some point in the season.
Also, how is Chris Taylor as a SS?
Taylor’s been fine at SS in the sample I’ve watched him in, the real question will be who can play a credible CF on the roster besides him.
Nimmo to Dodgers plz
You are thinking that they need a left-handed OF to fill the void left by Seager.
Matt Kemp and Corey Seager to the Orioles for Manny Machado, Dylan Bundy and Kevin Gausman.
That would be a panic move for the Dodgers. No way they’re trading Corey Seager (even if he’s injured) for a one year rental in Manny Machado.
Downvotes for you reasonable reply! Yes, lets trade several years of free service of Seager for a rental!
The Dodgers just lost their best bat, I don’t think sending Kemp away sounds like a good idea. I know there is never a bad reason to take a shot at Matt Kemp’s lack of value, but I think they need his bat in the middle of the lineup more than ever now. I can’t imagine the Dodgers even considering dealing Seager – they know he is the player their offense is built around. Good time for an extension?
His Agent is Scott Boras. An extension is not happening.
On the one hand, this is terrible for LA’s 2018. On the other hand, it’s a bit of a relief to have a clear explanation for Seager’s poor performance. Here’s hoping he comes back at 100% and resumes his HOF-level performance for many years to come,
Pirates fans have already speculated on Kang to Dodgers. Could be a win-win.
Is he allowed in the country yet?
Yeah, he was cleared this week for visa and should be up by June if he can still hit after the year off. Could even speculate that the year off may have been good for the knee post-Coughlin takeout slide. I’d rather the Bucs not trade him and try him at SS themselves.
And he gets to play in the most Korean place in all of the US, along w/ Ryu
The thing that’s really strange is his numbers had really changed for the better these last 2 weeks…
season thru Apr 14. .196/.268/.255 .523 OPS 47 wRC+
Apr 15-Apr 29- ..340/.424/.540 with .964 OPS 151 wRC+
You would have thought those would have been flipped with the numbers really tailing off right before them deciding to do the surgery.
Dodgers only going to have 3 more years of team control before he hits free agency now.
Seager may have been diminished by the elbow pain in late 2017, but he wasn’t this year, his xwoba was the same as it alwasy was, he was just hitting line drives right to outfielders all the time.
His hitting really has been fine all year long.
As someone who has watched probably half of his at bats, he hasn’t been great this year. He hasn’t been bad but he has missed way too many good pitches to hit – I think it was just a slump… which it looks like he was just about to emerge from.
looking at the numbers- the last 15 days he had emerged from the slump. .964 OPS/151 wRC+.
Also, is it me, or does it seem like we’re seeing more and more position players having to have TJ surgery?
I don’t think so. I think it is a pretty short list.
an update on jeff’s wRC+, he is now at a robust 420
seriously though, oreos seem to have illusions of grandeur with their asking price for machado. seems a bit steep even for the dodgers.
Or pay next to nothing for Alcides Escobar as a backup/pinch runner/defensively replacement
The problem is nobody in baseball values Alcides Escobar more than his current employer.
I’m not too familiar with the luxury tax rules, but it seemed like the Dodgers spent a lot of effort in the offseason to avoid it and that acquiring Machado while staying below the threshold might be challenging.
I think that a team’s end-of-the-season roster is what’s used for luxury tax rules, so the Dodgers could simply trade Kemp’s salary & a prospect to a tanking team to offset Machado.
It’s what the team actually spends I think. So like Machado is due 16 million for season. 5/6 of that would be 13.33 million. That 13.33 would be what is calculated for the Dodgers Luxury Tax.
Kemp has a big salary due in 2019 as well. I doubt any team would consider taking him as a trade piece until after the 2018 season ends. A more likely piece to offload to make salary room is Logan Forsythe.
Perhaps Tim Locastro–upon whom the Dodgers might potentially become fixated–would be an option?
I understand the reasons why this won’t happen—Machado is expensive, the Dodgers don’t want to trade quality depth/youth for a short-term rental, the Dodgers are still probably good enough to win their division without him—but I really, really want it to happen. Great fielders are exponentially more fun to watch when they’re on good teams.
Dodgers even with Seager were going to have a challenge with Arizona. 7 games even after 27 games is still 7 games. Dodgers may find it tough to even make the wild card w/o any moves quite frankly.
The Dodgers are in fact in a lot of trouble. I was thinking that their season is headed down the drain… but you are right, Machado would be a perfect solution. They have some expendable minor league depth as well.
If it wasn’t for the luxury tax, I would agree. It looks like the first option is moving Taylor to short, adding Verdugo to the outfield mix and having Hernandez or Valera backup Taylor. And all of a sudden, Kemp and Pederson become key. When August rolls around, they’ll see where things stand and perhaps make a move when the acquisition only adds a month or two of salary.
Bring back Adrian Beltre!!!