Padres Acquire Jorge Mateo from Oakland
Yesterday, a few days after the transaction freeze was lifted, we had our first mid-pandemic trade when the Padres acquired Jorge Mateo from Oakland for a Player to be Named Later. Let’s dig into this deal, which is more important mechanically than it is from a baseball standpoint.
The Padres sending a PTBNL to Oakland circumvents the stated 2020 restriction that only players who are part of the 60-man player pool may be traded. Even if the A’s and Padres already know who the player will be, announcing the deal with a PTBNL distinction enables Oakland to avoid using a player pool spot on the new prospect. It’s an indication that, whoever the player is or will be, they’re not currently in San Diego’s 60-man pool, otherwise they’d just have been announced as the trade piece. Since there will be no minor league season, we won’t have an awkward, Trea Turner or Drew Pomeranz situation where a team is rostering and developing a minor leaguer who they and the industry knows they’ll soon trade. Even if the PTBNL needs to be put on the 60 later this summer in order to complete the transaction, doing it at the last possible moment enables the teams to have that roster spot free for as long as possible.
As for Mateo, the 25-year-old speedster was 15th on Oakland’s prospect list (40 FV, projected as a bench piece) prior to the trade. I’ve moved him to San Diego’s team list on The Board, where he ranks 30th (purely as a result of San Diego’s farm depth, not because of a change in Mateo’s evaluation). Here’s his blurb from the list:
I’ve spoken with folks who think that even though he was one dinger away from going 20/20 and had perhaps the best surface-level stats of his career, Mateo’s approach actually regressed last year as he leaned into selling out for power in a hitting environment where it was more viable. That’s not to say that Mateo’s stats are a caricature of his physical abilities. He’s still an 80-grade runner with some power and arm strength, but at age 25, he remains somewhat inconsistent as an infield defender and is swing-happy at the plate. He hasn’t played center field since he was with the Yankees and it might be too late to revisit that. I think he’ll carve out a bench role somewhere based on his physical ability.
It seemed logical to conclude that Mateo’s acquisition was partially driven by 2B/DH Brian Dozier opting out of the season, and that Mateo might be in the Padres second base mix going into camp, but a source close to the trade tells me San Diego is going to try Mateo in center field. He’s out of options (likely part of why Oakland dealt him) and therefore will need to make this adjustment at the big league level. Because I’m bearish on his bat, I think Mateo’s only shot to be an everyday player at this point is if his elite speed enables him to play elite defense in center, and now not only will we get to see if that’s possible, we’ll get to see it play out in real time.
Oakland cleared out some of their second base logjam with the trade. Former top prospect Franklin Barreto (if we’re being kind to Barreto and those of us who were high on him as a prospect, he “hasn’t yet established himself in the big leagues,” but if we’re being realistic, his approach is a huge, perhaps insurmountable problem), Sheldon Neuse, Chad Pinder, Tony Kemp, and Rule 5 pick Vimael Machin are now the names in the A’s keystone mix.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
Franklin Barreto and Jorge Mateo in this article together reminded me of a time I thought both looked like stars in the making. Nice little time capsule. Also surprised to see how young both are still.
It is not easy to make a 5 to 1 strikeout to walk work and most players won’t make it work. Players have improved plate discipline before but after almost a decade in the minors it is not very likely.
The guy who made such a k to bb rate work was of course javier baez but then you need off the charts batted ball quality. Mateo has some pop but probably only like low 20s bombs pop and not mid 30s like baez.
And low walks, lots of Ks and about average power (which is 20 bombs in these days) isn’t a good receipt even when his speed should help his babip some.
The path for him I could see is he develops a bit more power and hits mid 20s Homers with a low obp for maybe a 90 wrc+ but for that to have value he would need to be a plus centerfielder.
Baez can also make it work because he plays elite SS defense, which Mateo obviously lacks as well.
Interesting that San Diego traded their best CF, Margot (who I see you have in DMB, Eric! Me, too.), and now want to try Mateo in CF, where he hasn’t played in a while. Sounds like a fun time (to watch). This short season is gonna be weird!
In a way it fits AJ Preller’s M.O. Margot has a high floor as a superb defender and he’s not an easy out, but he lacks the power, basepath speed, and contact/OBP skills to give him much projection. So now we’re looking at Trent Grisham, Franchy Cordero, and possibly Jorge Mateo to man CF. It’s an interesting mix that could yield better results than Margot when used right.
I suspect we’ll see some kind of platoon where Grisham starts the bulk of games in CF, perhaps Mateo is out there against tough lefties with Franchy sprinkled in all three outfield spots where his matchup is favorable. It sounds like Mateo’s glove is pretty good at SS and he can play some 2B, so he adds flexibility to the roster.
Those are all good points and I looked after commenting and remembered Grisham is there – and he’s a good player, no doubt. Acquiring Mateo seems like it had more to do with the oddball current season, more than anything. Plus, for pure offense this year, having Pham to DH is likely better than Margot’s defense. Just this year.
Mateo is just a spare part for this season. If he shows more than fill-in quality play, fine, but it’s useless to speculate he’ll be plugged in as a regular anywhere this season.
Franchy’s instincts, Mateo’s experience, and Grisham’s speed would make one of the worst center fielders in the last 15 years. Maybe even worse than the late-career defensive implosions of Bernie Wiliams or Griffey Jr. I propose they try to find someone who checks all three boxes instead of spreading them out of over three players, just to see what happens.
Statcast tracked Grisham as a 29.1 ft/sec runner last year as a baserunner, which put him in the top 7% of all runners and the top third of CFs (just faster than Manuel Margot, actually). Granted, defensive speed can be different than baserunning speed, but that has more to do with instincts than actual running ability, which is actually one of the strongest parts of Grisham’s game.
Interesting aside I found while looking that up: Ender Inciarte was the third slowest CF last year at 26.8 ft/sec, which actually meant he was below league average (that’s for all positions!). The man has crazy good instincts against RHBs though, which compensates.
Kind of surprises me they’d let Jankowski go if they were going to trade Margot and run bat-first guys out there. All three of the CF options sound like someone I’d want to replace or push to a corner in the late innings. Mateo could be fine out there, but no experience. You can afford to carry a random defensive replacement with an expanded roster.
I still don’t understand how that’s better than keeping Margot and the Franimal over the last year… the Padres OF trades just don’t seem to add up in the aggregate. Emilio Pagan and Taylor Trammell for Margot, Reyes, and Logan Allen on top of the Grisham/Urias swap is just an odd two-step crunk-dance series of moves.
I don’t really understand, either, though Pham is a decent addition. Margot would seem to be the best asset to have, under normal circumstances.
Their scouts must have just liked the players themselves better for some reason. Or maybe the coaches disliked the guys they had for some reason or another.
Barreto had a 121 wrc+ with a 26% k and a 10% bb rate in AAA as a 23year old. He lowered his k rate 5% from the previous year where he had an even better wrc+ in Nashville. All while being shuttled back and forth to sit on the bench for Oakland while getting 4 ABs or so a week.
Not sure what else you can ask from the kid.
To do that in the majors instead of in the cartoonish AAA environment of last year. The guy’s strikeout rate in the majors is 12 times his walk rate. I suppose there’s virtually nowhere to go but up, but that’s not a “makes improvements” kind of situation, that’s a “bulldoze everything and start over” kind of situation.
Minor league wRC+ isn’t park adjusted. Baseball Prospectus’s DRC+ is and credits Barreto with a 108–still above average but that park definitely helps quite a bit (FWIW Mateo had a 96 wRC+ vs 81 DRC+)
I hope for the best with him, but he has some Lewis Brinson about him.
Those are solid, but not great numbers, and 23 isn’t exactly young for AAA
Eric, enjoy your work. Will you be doing anything on the UDFA signings?
Thanks
Designated Runner.
“It seemed logical to conclude that Mateo’s acquisition was partially driven by 2B/DH Brian Dozier opting out of the season,”
I haven’t heard anything about Dozier opting out, and did a quick search and couldn’t find anything. Do you have a source for this, or is it speculation?
He’s not on the 60-man player pool, so while it could be a question of ability, it’s more likely that he is opting out.
I imagine he’s being acquired largely due to the different rules in extra innings.
Can someone a little but more familiar with Barreto tell me
If the A’s have ever allowed him to breathe at the MLB level and given him a real chance to succeed?