Well, this sucks. In the midst of a season that looked like it was going to take the Braves first baseman from one of the better hitters in baseball to one of the elite players in the game, Freddie Freeman has hit a roadblock. Or rather, been hit by one. An Aaron Loup fastball in the fifth inning of last night’s game got Freeman in the arm, and today, it’s been reported that an MRI revealed a broken wrist, which will sideline the star first baseman for at least the next couple of months.

Source: #Braves’ Freeman has a fractured left wrist. Expectation is that he will miss at least eight weeks.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) May 18, 2017

This is obviously a huge blow to the Braves, as Freeman was carrying the team on his back. Even with Freeman running a 204 wRC+ to this point, the Braves still had just a 94 wRC+, and without a real backup first baseman on the team, it’s not entirely clear who will replace him in the line-up. The Braves official site lists Jace Peterson as the team’s backup 1B, but he’s now playing third while Adonis Garcia is on the DL. Nick Markakis has played some first base before, but the team isn’t exactly overflowing with outfielders as it is, so then you’re looking at someone like Danny Santana replacing the team’s best hitter for two months.

While the Braves probably weren’t going to be contenders this year, this is a huge blow to their chances to even hang around for the rest of the summer. For a team looking to infuse some optimism into the fanbase with the opening of a new stadium, this is pretty close to the worst news they could receive.

Hopefully, for the Braves and the game’s sake, Freeman comes back to full health for the last few months of the year. Freeman’s at-bats were becoming appointment viewing, and the summer just got a little less interesting for baseball as a whole, and a lot less interesting for fans in Atlanta.

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Walker Buehler, RHP, Los Angeles NL (Profile)
Level: Double-A   Age: 22   Org Rank: 5   Top 100: 74
Line: 3.2 IP, 3 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 9 K

Notes
Buehler made five dominant but abbreviated starts at High-A, never superseding the 65-pitch mark. He was then shut down for 10 days before earning a promotion to Double-A. He’s been sitting 95-99 all spring with a plus-plus, hammer curveball and a hard slider/cutter anywhere from 87-91. He’s very athletic, balanced, and always appears in control of his body despite the high-effort nature of his delivery. He throws all three pitches for strikes. He has the stuff and enough polish to pitch in the big leagues this year in a multi-inning bullpen role — and, if his usage and early-season inning management is any indication, the Dodgers seem to think so, too.

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This winter, we saw a number of free agent first baseman hit the market, and then promptly get rejected en masse. Edwin Encarnacion was looking for $100 million, and then took $60 million after his market collapsed. Mark Trumbo apparently wanted $80 million; he signed for $37.5 million. Quality veterans like Brandon Moss and Mike Napoli signed for fractions of what similar players had in prior off-seasons. Pedro Alvarez got a minor league deal to try to play outfield, after no one wanted him as their first baseman.

Overnight, the game seemingly shifted from highly valuing one dimensional sluggers to thinking they were fungible assets. At the end of January, this trend led me to wonder why so many contenders were willing to punt first base, and speculate that maybe teams were willing to put up with less offense from the traditional slugging position because it was so easy to find offense at other positions now.

After all, first baseman as a group were coming off one of their weakest offensive performances of all time. With shifting hurting so many slow left-handed sluggers, perhaps we were just transitioning away from first base as a dominant offensive position.

Yeah, about that.

After running a 110 wRC+ last year, players playing first base — this data is offensive performance while actually playing the position, not just guys who qualify as 1Bs on the leaderboard — 1Bs are up to 122 this year, which would be the highest mark of any year where we have split-by-position data. And not surprisingly, given the home run surge, it’s almost all because of a power spike.

1Bs have a collective .225 ISO this year, up from .194 last year. That number had bottomed out at .170 in 2014, but the power has come storming back this year; 1Bs haven’t had an ISO over .200 since 2009, when it was .206.

And this isn’t a Bonds-lifting-the-LF-baseline situation; almost every 1B in baseball is hitting this year. 30 different players have 70+ PAs while playing first base; 10 of them are running a wRC+ of 140 or higher. 23 of the 30 have a wRC+ over 100. And this is with Miguel Cabrera, Anthony Rizzo, and Carlos Santana struggling in the early part of the season.

In their stead, guys we didn’t think were going to hit that well — Ryan Zimmerman, Yonder Alonso, Mark Reynolds, Justin Smoak, and Logan Morrison — are all crushing the ball. And besides Miggy and Rizzo, the upper-tier guys are hitting the ball like few others in baseball. Freddie Freeman and Paul Goldschmidt remain monsters. Joey Votto has figured out how to stop striking out, apparently. Matt Carpenter has gone fully Jose Bautista. And yeah, Eric Thames is still a thing.

Naturally, some of these guys are going to regress. Maybe a few of the Alonso/Smoak/Zimmerman crowd have figured out some way to sustainably hit at a much higher level than they have previously, but a lot of what is propping up first base offense right now is mediocre hitters performing at a high level. That won’t last forever.

But after a winter in which the first base position essentially had a public funeral, the position has come roaring back to life this year. First base, it turns out, is still a power position.

Yesterday, I published a post comparing and contrasting the virtues of a pair of NL left fielders, Kyle Schwarber and Aaron Altherr. They are pretty different kinds of players, but to this point, their career numbers are very similar, and I thought it was an interesting question to consider which of the two you’d rather have going forward.

At the end of the post, I included a series of three polls, asking you to select a range for your view of the future expected performance for both players, as well as asking you to pick which one you’d rather have going forward. The results of those polls should something very close to a down-the-middle split.

When it came down to pick a side, Schwarber won 54/46, so there’s a slight edge to the bat-first, longer track record guy, but it certainly wasn’t any kind of blowout. And when you look at the expected performance buckets, it seems that Schwarber’s slight edge comes down to perceived upside.

A plurality of voters picked the +2 to +3 WAR bucket for both players, with 49% of Altherr’s votes going in that category, compared to 48% of Schwarber’s. There was a pretty large block of you guys that agreed that these guys are both above-average players, but not quite reaching star levels.

The +3 to +4 WAR bucket was the second most common choice for both players, and here, Schwarber pulled ahead slightly, 34% to 30%. Then it was +1 to +2 WAR, with Altherr getting 14% of his votes in that bin versus 9% for Schwarber. +4 to +5 WAR went 6% to 4% for Schwarber, and then +5 or better went 3% to 2% for Schwarber.

So overall, 43% of voters saw Schwarber as a +3 WAR or better player, the legitimate star that he’s been hyped up to be since being taken #4 overall. Only 37% of voters saw Altherr at that same level, and those who weren’t willing to put him in that category didn’t shift to the +2 to +3 WAR category, but instead, saw him as a role player, a fringe starter, effectively not buying into his 2017 performance as a significant indicator of change.

Essentially, the votes indicate that, while similar, you guys see a slightly higher upside with Schwarber. I’m guessing some of those higher-upside votes came from the idea that a new team could use him at first base, and his defensive limitations in left field would go away if Anthony Rizzo wasn’t standing in his way of the position he’s likely best suited for. If you think Schwarber could play a reasonable 1B and hit at a 130 or 140 wRC+ level, then yeah, that +4 to +5 WAR level is definitely reachable.

Altherr’s path to stardom in left field is easier; he just has to hit at a 120 to 130 wRC+ level, and his athleticism should carry the rest of the skillset. But while it was close, it appears that a few more of you buy into Schwarber hitting at a higher level, or changing positions, than see Altherr hitting at that level.

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Jose De Leon, RHP, Tampa Bay (Profile)
Level: Hi-A   Age: 24   Org Rank: 3   Top 100: 44
Line: 5 IP, 0 H, 0 R, 2 BB, 5 K

Notes
Yesterday, De Leon made his second start since coming off the disabled list with forearm soreness. He threw 69 pitches over five innings, an improvement from his inefficient 61-pitch, three-inning appearance on the 11th of May. De Leon also dealt with back tightness during the spring. A changeup/command artist, De Leon could help a Rays rotation currently delving into the bullpen for help due to Blake Snell’s growing pains, but the club has a glut of options on the 40-man and Brent Honeywell (who isn’t on it) is shoving at Triple-A.

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Imagine the average Yasiel Puig plate appearance. What does it look like to you? One thing it might look like is Puig flailing at a bunch of low-away sliders. Now, I don’t actually know what’s in your head. I don’t know how you think about Puig. But just in case you think he is extremely vulnerable to breaking stuff, do I have news for you!

I have prepared two plots, showing the entirety of Puig’s major-league career. Here is a rolling-average plot of Puig’s rate of fastballs seen:

Great! He’s gone through some low-fastball phases before. Now he’s higher than ever. I should tell you that, for context, baseball-wide fastball rates are going *down*. So, the average hitter is seeing fewer fastballs than ever before. Puig is seeing more fastballs than ever before. All right, that’s part of it. Time to fold in run values. Here’s the same idea, where I’ve just summed up Puig’s fastball run values above or below average over rolling 30-game stretches.

It shouldn’t surprise you to see how cyclical things are. Underneath, that’s how baseball tends to work — something gets the job done until it doesn’t, at which point adjustments are made, and then more adjustments are made, and on and on. Puig has gone through troughs, followed by peaks, but Puig has been at another low. How low? So far, there are 208 hitters this season who have batted at least 100 times. Puig owns baseball’s highest fastball rate, at 68%. Last year, he was at 60%. And while this has been going on, Puig is sitting on baseball’s third-worst fastball run value, at -8.9 runs. Only Dansby Swanson and Alcides Escobar have been worse. Pitch-type run values, of course, are prone to noise in either direction, but both these factors are fairly convincing together. Puig’s seeing more fastballs because he’s doing less to them.

Here are Puig’s fastball run values by season, expressed as runs above or below average per 100 fastballs:

• 2013: +1.7 runs per 100 fastballs
• 2014: +1.4
• 2015: +1.0
• 2016: -0.5
• 2017: -2.4

So far this season, Puig has been pretty good against both sliders and changeups. It’s almost as if he’s focused too hard on addressing a weakness, such that now he’s just behind faster pitches. It’s something to work on, and with Puig, it’s just another adjustment to attempt. There’s always something, but I guess you could say that’s true for anybody.

It could be misstating things to assert that Puig’s on a high-fastball diet. Pitchers, certainly, are giving him a steady diet of fastballs. Yet relatively few of them are being consumed. So, the headline could probably stand to be fixed. Give me a few seconds to get on that.

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Chuckie Robinson, C, Houston (Profile)
Level: Low-A   Age: 22   Org Rank: HM   Top 100: NR
Line: 1-for-2, HR, 2 BB

Notes
A 21st rounder out of Southern Miss, Robinson has big pull power and takes full-effort, uppercut swings. He’s homered in two consecutive games (his first two of the season) and is now up to .282/.346/.479 on the year. He’s significantly improved his conditioning since high school and improved his defensive mobility, though he’s still listed at 5-foot-11, 225 pounds. Robinson is now a passable receiver with above-average pure arm strength that plays down on throws to second base because he’s still a bit slow to exit his crouch. Some are apprehensive about the sustainability of Robinson’s Bunyanesque approach to hitting, but he’s got louder tools and a better chance to reach the majors than the typical 21st-round pick. He profiles as a third catcher.

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Let’s do some quick review! One stat we have on our pages shows up as IFFB%. This measures the rate of infield pop-ups per fly ball hit. You know this measure — this is the one where Joey Votto is a freak.

Another stat we have on our pages shows up as HR/FB. This measures the rate of home runs per fly ball hit. You also know this measure — this is the one where Aaron Judge is a freak. (And, seemingly, everybody else.)

Both of these numbers make sense to look at for individuals, and for teams. Let’s think about teams. In fact, let’s think about one specific team, that being the Milwaukee Brewers. This season, the Brewers have hit pop-ups on 6.2% of their fly balls. That’s the lowest rate for any team. Also, this season, the Brewers have hit home runs on 20.6% of their fly balls. That’s the highest rate for any team. The Brewers currently rank as the best by each measure. That means they rank No. 1.

We have this batted-ball data going back to 2002, which gives us 15 full individual seasons, and one partial one. Combining everything, here is a table of the 10 best offensive teams by average rank in these two stats.

In short, the Brewers are trying to be the first team in a decade and a half or so to be better than anyone else in terms of pop-ups and homers. The 2004 Yankees came tantalizingly close to dual No. 1s, but they were narrowly edged out in pop-ups by the Tigers. I’m sure the Yankees didn’t mind, and it’s not like this is the end goal of the whole Brewers organization, but this is, overall, a positive reflection of the lineup through to this point. Although they’ve swung and missed, this is how you make the most of fly balls.

As it happens, these Brewers are actually tied with the 2015 Giants for what would be the lowest pop-up rate in the whole window. And no team has previously reached even 17% home runs per fly ball; the Brewers are close to 21%. So, technically, they rank No. 1 in each category this season, and they also rank No. 1 in each category over all 15+ seasons. This is a remarkable partial achievement!

In closing, this year’s team with the worst average rank is the Red Sox, who are 27th by pop-ups and 29th by homers. No team has ever finished last in both categories. The closest was the 2014 Royals, who were worst in homers and second-worst in pop-ups. The 2014 Royals lost the World Series in seven games. Don’t accuse me of overselling.

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Greg Harris, RHP, Tampa (Profile)
Level: Double-A   Age: 22   Org Rank: 29   Top 100: NR
Line: 6 IP, 1 BB, 4 H, 2 ER, 11 K

Notes
After seeing Harris last fall, I projected him to the bullpen due to loose command. Other than one bad start on May 4 at Biloxi, however — when he walked four batters — he’s generally avoided issuing free passes, walking just six in 36 innings. Harris throws hard, in the low-to-mid 90s, has an above-average changeup, a viable cutter, and curveball. If he can maintain his upright, stiff-looking delivery and fill the zone, he could pitch in the back of a rotation. He has a 3.26 ERA at Double-A Montgomery.

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Position: TrackMan Data & Operations Intern

Location: Cape Cod

Description:
At TrackMan Baseball we measure ball flight including elements such as: speed, spin and movement of pitched and hit baseballs. We do this using proprietary 3D Doppler radar hardware and software. Every Major League team uses our products and services for player development and evaluation. We also work with collegiate, Japanese and Korean teams, premier amateur baseball organizations, broadcasters and equipment manufacturers.

We are looking for a TrackMan Data & Operations Intern to be our hands and eyes on the ground at Cape Cod Baseball League games during the 2017 summer. The D&O Intern will be out in the field on a daily basis focused primarily on operating the TrackMan system and ensuring data quality measures are effectively in place at the point of capture. You will be an integral piece of ensuring the added TrackMan value to players, coaches, college teams, and Major League teams. This position runs from June 13th – August 13.

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