I don’t need to tell any of you that home runs are up, right? That’s an analytical conversation that has long since permeated the average baseball-ing household. There are more frequent home runs than there used to be. There were signs of a weird spike beginning around the 2015 All-Star break. It’s not because of the ball! At least, there’s no convincing evidence pointing to it being because of the ball. Home runs are just up, and it’s a thing we’ve gotten used to.

There was a time that identifying the home-run spike might’ve counted as groundbreaking. That time has passed. All I’m here to tell you today is that the home-run spike is still spiking. Rates, I mean, haven’t plateaued. They’re still going up. Home runs continue to take offense by storm. Here are home-run rates going back to 1954, with all plate appearances as the denominator:

This current June is the 379th month in the sample. And although this current June still has a long ways to go, it has what would be the highest home-run rate for a month. May would rank third-highest. So, that’s something. But then, there’s also the matter of this — contact has been going down. Here are the monthly rates of plate appearances ending with a batted ball hit fair:

Nothing you didn’t know about in there, either. But now let’s combine the two, looking at home-run rates, with batted balls as the denominator instead of plate appearances:

Just so you know, I went back to 1954 because that’s the first year of Baseball Reference having record of sacrifice flies. Nothing that happened before 1954 would change the overall picture. In terms of home runs on contact, this June would easily rank first. May is in second. April is in seventh, even though April historically has the lowest home-run rates for any month out of the six. Baseball is on its 15th consecutive regular-season month with a higher home-run rate on contact than the previous season’s equivalent month. Homers this April were up 12% over last April, which were up 18% over the previous April. Homers this May were up 12% over last May. Homers so far in June are up 10% over last June. Where we are now, 5.12% of fair batted balls in June have been homers. It’s the first time baseball’s broken the 5% threshold.

April had the second-highest homer rate for any April, narrowly behind April 2000. May had the highest homer rate for any May. June has what would be, very easily, the highest homer rate for any June. It’s enough to make you wonder about July, August, and September. I don’t know where the trend is going to go, but I could offer a guess, based on the fact that absolutely nothing here has slowed down.

The home-run era is welcoming even more home runs. Many people have their guesses for why this is taking place. Nothing, as far as I know, has been proven, conclusively. All that’s truly been proven is that home runs are everywhere. I’d tell you to get used to it, but then, you probably already have.

Three months ago, few would have predicted the Brewers would be atop the National League Central in June, but here we are. The Cardinals, Cubs, and Pirates have all fallen short of preseason expectations, while Milwaukee has surprisingly kept their record above .500. Regardless of what the standings say, Milwaukee’s roster pales in comparison to the Cubs’ and Cardinals’ on paper, which is why we give the Brewers a mere 3% chance of winning the division.

Milwaukee’s team just got a bit better, however, as they’ve called up top prospect Lewis Brinson to play some outfield. Brinson was having a fine season in Triple-A, slashing .312/.397/.503. He’s hit very well for a center fielder — and exceptionally well for a good defensive center fielder who’s only 23.

Brinson’s come a long way since his early days as a professional, especially in the strikeout department. He struck out an alarming 38% of the time in Low-A back in 2013, but has hacked several percentage points off that mark since. His 22% strikeout rate in Triple-A this year is still a bit high, but not alarmingly so. He’s made this improvement without giving up much in other categories, either. His 20 extra-base hits, seven steals, healthy walk rate, and center-field defense more than outweigh the remaining strikeout risk.

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Because of the basketball game, we’ve moved the Pitch Talks from Monday, June 12th, to September 18th. All previous tickets will carry over and we hope you’ll come see us then!

With the Giants taking a breather and stuck in limbo, it’s a great time to hear General Manager Bobby Evans thoughts on baseball and the future. Therese Vinal, with all of her great clubhouse experience and upbeat energy, and Alex Pavlovic, insider extraordinaire for NBC Sports Bay Area, will be able to tell us about the feeling on the ground. I’ll be there giving my in-between experience, and helping bridge to Grant Brisbee’s unique feel for analysis.

And though there’s a distinctly Giants feel to the whole thing, there should be something for everyone. I practically live in the visitor’s clubhouse anyway.

Tickets are $25, but using Homestand as the coupon code, you can get it down to just $20. The venue states this is a 21 and up show, so unfortunately, adults only at this one. I’ll come early if you want to have a beer by the bar.

Hope to see you guys in September.

To be clear, there are two job postings here.

Position: Tampa Bay Rays TrackMan Stringers (Operators)

Location: Princeton, W.V.

Description:
TrackMan Stringers (operators) will be responsible for running the TrackMan system for Princeton Rays’ home games in Princeton, W.V. The number of games each Stringer works varies by week. Stringer(s) will start on or around June 28.
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Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Yordan Alvarez, DH/1B, Houston (Profile)
Level: Low-A   Age: 19   Org Rank: HM   Top 100: NR
Line: 2-for-5, 2 HR

Notes
Alvarez is hitting a preposterous .413/.500/.693 as a 19-year-old in full-season ball. Even once you acknowledge that better hitters at lower levels are going to have especially high BABIPs because they’re hitting balls harder than the baseline player at that level, Alvarez’s current .553 mark is unsustainable. Nevertheless, reports on the ease of his power and picturesque swing are very strong. There’s some swing-and-miss risk here but also a potential middle-of-the-order bat.

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Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Dedgar Jimenez, LHP, Boston (Profile)
Level: Low-A   Age: 21   Org Rank: NR   Top 100: NR
Line: 6 IP, 8 H, 0 BB, 1 R, 7 K

Notes
Jimenez has 60 strikeouts and just 17 walks over 57.1 innings this year. He’s big — 6-foot-3 and 240 pounds — but is a good athlete who repeats his delivery and not only throws a lot of strikes but often throws them exactly where he intends to. His stuff is fringey, his best pitch an average slider which he uses heavily, and he’s surviving purely off of command right now. Without any physical projection, it’s hard to envision him competing at upper levels with this stuff, even if he has plus command.

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Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Gleyber Torres, INF, New York AL (Profile)
Level: Triple-A   Age: 20   Org Rank: 1   Top 100: 7
Line: 3-for-3, HR, BB

Notes
Even with Ruben Tejada’s recent trade to Baltimore, Torres’s reps are likely to come mostly at second and third base, as Tyler Wade remains entrenched at shortstop in Scranton. I saw him play both positions last week and lots of second base in the Fall League, and he looked like a fish out of water at both spots, especially around the second-base bag. He has the physical tools to play anywhere on the infield and will likely improve with reps, but he’s not ready for the majors right now.

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Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Michael Paez, INF, New York NL (Profile)
Level: Low-A   Age: 22   Org Rank: NR   Top 100: NR
Line: 4-for-5, HR

Notes
Paez was the best prospect on Coastal Carolina’s 2016 College World Series championship team. He’s 5-foot-8 but has sneaky pull power to which he’s always been able to get in games despite high strikeout totals. He’s 22 and a college hitter at Low-A so his season .306/.404/.543 line needs to be taken with a large grain of salt, but he could be a big-league bench piece as a power-before-hit infielder who can play second and third base.

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This coming Monday, Jeff Sullivan and I will be joining a talented group for a Pitch Talks show in Seattle.

Jeff will be joined by current Lookout Landing editor (and FanGraphs first resident) Kate Preusser along with Meg Rowley and Patrick Dubuque of Baseball Prospectus for a panel that should be pretty entertaining. I’ll be hanging out with local scribes Shannon Drayer and Ryan Divish for a panel on the state of the Mariners, and how 2017 factors into the future of the organization. And between those discussions, Kyle Boddy, the owner of Driveline Baseball, will chat about the changing face of training and rehab, and how organizations like his are attempting to develop a very different generation of pitchers.

Mike Salk (ESPN Radio) will host the event, and with that line-up, it should be a pretty great night of baseball talk. You’re definitely going to want to make it to this one.

Tickets are $25, but using Homestand as the coupon code, you can get it down to just $20. I should note that the venue states this is a 21 and up show, so unfortunately, adults only at this one.

Hope to see you guys on Monday night.

Daily notes on prospects from lead prospect analyst Eric Longenhagen. Read previous installments here.

Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto (Profile)
Level: Low-A   Age: 19   Org Rank: 10   Top 100: NR
Line: 3-for-4, HR

Notes
Now at .381/.458/.619 on the year, the Bo Bichette I saw as an amateur looks like the outlier and not the one who was arguably the best prospect at some later showcases before the draft. While Bichette’s style of hitting violates Lansing noise ordinances, his feel for contact and hand-eye coordination are sublime and he has plus-plus bat speed. Bichette is also showing a measured two-strike approach. He’s making a case for top-100 consideration, even though he’s unlikely to stay at short.

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