Eric Longenhagen is publishing brief, informal notes from his looks at the prospects of the Arizona Fall League and, for the moment, the Fall Instructional League. Find all editions here.

Braves 2B Travis Demeritte has looked tremendous at second base this fall. Not only has he made several acrobatic plays but he’s handled some bad hops and sucked up errant throws on steal attempts as well. While his hands remain somewhat rough, Demeritte’s range and athleticism have forced me to reckon with the idea of plus-plus defense at second base — as well as to remember if I’ve ever put a 7 on a second baseman’s glove before. I don’t think I have, and I suppose it’s worth asking if such a thing even exists, as one might wonder why a 70 or 80 glove at second base couldn’t play shortstop in some capacity. I think the right concoction of skills (chiefly, great range and actions but a poor arm) can churn out a plus-plus defender there. I’d cite Ian Kinsler, Brandon Phillips and Dustin Pedroia, and Chase Utley as examples from the last eight or 10 years. It’d be aggressive to put a future 7 on Demeritte’s glove right now because his hands and arm accuracy are too inconsistent, but those are things that could be polished up with time.

Tigers RHP Spencer Turnbull was up to 94 and mixed in five different pitches last night. Nothing was plus and Turnbull doesn’t have especially good command but I liked how he and Brewers C Jake Nottingham sequenced hitters and how to and that Turnbull was willing to pitch backwards and give hitters different looks each at-bat. He and Rays RHP Brent Honeywell have the deepest repertoires I’ve seen so far in Fall League.

Giants righty Chris Stratton sat 89-92 last night with an average mid-80s slider that is good enough to miss bats if he locates it, and last night he did. I think the changeup is average, as well, while Stratton’s curveball is a tick below but a useful change of pace early in counts. He looks like a back-end starter.

Quite a few defenders got to air it out last night. Here are some grades I put on guys’ arms:

Dawel Lugo, 3B, ARI: 6

Miguel Andujar, 3B, NYY: 6

Pat Valaika, INF, COL: 5

Gavin Cecchini, INF, NYM: 45

Christin Stewart, OF, DET: 4

Angels CF Michael Hermosillo, who was committed to Illinois to play running back before signing with Anaheim after the 2013 draft, displayed tremendous range in center field last night. He looks erratic at the plate but he hit well at Burlington and Inland Empire this year and is an obvious late-bloomer follow as a two-sport prospect from a cold weather state.

Last night, Jon Lester took the mound for the Cubs, and for most of the game, the conversation was about he can’t do: hold runners on. The Dodgers danced and pranced off first base, taking leads they wouldn’t take against any pitcher, and daring him to throw over to first base. But you know what the Dodgers didn’t do against Jon Lester? Score runs.

Okay, fine, they got one, but for most of the night, Lester just shut the Dodgers offense down. Because that’s just what he does in October.

You know about Madison Bumgarner’s postseason dominance by now; that’s a well-told story at this point. So, just for fun, here’s a table of some numbers that might surprise you.

Lester has been basically identical to Bumgarner in the postseason, once you account for the league and run environment differences of their postseason opportunities. Even their underlying numbers are almost identical across the board. Lester, though, has now been this dominant in 17 extra playoff innings, so you could argue that his October resume is actually even more impressive.

For all the talk about the Giants ace as the dominant postseason hurler of his time, Lester is in that conversation ,too. And after another great outing last night, he’s one of the big reasons the Cubs are now one win away from the World Series.

To be clear, there are three postings here.

Position: Detroit Tigers Manager, Baseball Analytics

Location: Detroit
Read the rest of this entry »

Position: Houston Astros Baseball Research & Development Analyst

Location: Houston
Read the rest of this entry »

Cubs manager Joe Maddon likes to put a saying — often an inspirational quote — on the clubhouse chalkboard before games. Earlier today, I asked Toronto’s John Gibbons what message he’d put on his club’s chalkboard leading into ALCS Game 5. His response was, “We let Bautista do that.”

In retrospect, “You can’t predict baseball” would have been apropos.

The Indians weren’t supposed to beat the Blue Jays this afternoon. Not at raucous Rogers Centre with an obscure, and inexperienced, rookie on the mound. Ryan Merritt had all of 11 big-league innings under his belt, and in terms of prospect helium, he’s not exactly Julio Urias. Let’s be honest, there was a greater chance that Merritt would crack than dazzle. Bautista went as far as to say the youngster would be “shaking in his boots.”

Before the game, Terry Francona admitted that Merritt was nervous. The Cleveland skipper also predicted that those nerves would lessen once the game started.

They did. In the first inning, the kid induced weak ground balls from Bautista and Josh Donaldson, then fanned Edwin Encarnacion. “Merritt” chants were started in the stands, but they never gained steam. Neither did Blue Jays bats; they continued to fizzle. Merritt set down the first 10 he faced, and when he finally did give up a hit, it was followed by a double play.

Through four innings,the bullpen phone had remained eerily quiet. Cinderella still hadn’t called for her slippers. The Indians led 3-0.

One out into the fifth, the rookie with the pedestrian fastball surrendered a soft single, and was lifted. He’d done his job. Expected to do little, Merritt instead was receiving congratulatory handshakes after retiring 12 of the 14 hitters he faced. The game was now in the capable hands of the Cleveland bullpen. Then it was over.

The Indians are on to the World Series, and Ryan Merritt — unknown, unheralded, unfazed — is one of the biggest reasons. Baseball.

Eric Longenhagen is publishing brief, informal notes from his looks at the prospects of the Arizona Fall League and, for the moment, the Fall Instructional League. Find all editions here.

Yankees RHP James Kaprielian sat mostly 92-93 mph and touched 96 one start after sitting 94-97 in his first appearance since an elbow flexor strain. His velocity is worth monitoring, not only because he’s returning from injury but because the 94-plus we saw before his injury and in his first AFL start was not the kind of velo was saw from Kaprielian at UCLA and we’re still trying to figure out exactly what this guy is.

Read the rest of this entry »

In a few hours, Ryan Merritt will take the mound for the Indians in Game 5 of the ALCS. Statistically, Merritt doesn’t look like much. He’s posted exceptionally low strikeout numbers at every stop, and although he’s coupled them with minuscule walk rates, KATOH isn’t sold. KATOH likes tall pitchers who strike guys out. As a 6-foot hurler who pitches to contact, Merritt is the exact opposite of that.

KATOH pegs Merritt for just 1.4 WAR over his first six seasons by the traditional method and 1.5 WAR by KATOH+, which integrates Baseball America’s rankings. To help you visualize what his KATOH projection entails, here is a probability density function showing KATOH+’s projected distribution of outcomes for Merritt’s first six seasons in the major leagues.

To put some faces to Merritt’s statistical profile, let’s generate some statistical comps for the command-oriented lefty. I calculated a weighted Mahalanobis distance between Merritt’s performance this year and every Triple-A season since 1991 in which a pitcher faced at least 350 batters. In the table below, you’ll find the 10 most similar seasons, ranked from most to least similar. The WAR totals refer to each player’s first six seasons in the major leagues. A lower “Mah Dist” reading indicates a closer comp.

Read the rest of this entry »

Position: Sports Info Solutions Research & Development Associate

Location: Coplay, Pa.
Read the rest of this entry »

Jose Bautista is a quote machine, good and bad. Earlier, Craig Edwards looked at what the Jays outfielder said about the strike zone, and here’s a more benign thing that Bautista said about Andrew Miller’s great slider: “For some reason his slider seems like he’s playing with it a little more,” he told reporters Sunday. “I felt like I saw two different sliders. Sometimes it’s more of a short slider. Sometimes it’s like a little slurve, with a lot more break, a sharper turn on it. As opposed to last year when he was throwing only one type of slider, which was a slurvy one.”

Bautista is right — Miller’s slider is different now. What’s interesting beyond that fact is that, by adding a second slider, Miller may have changed the movement on all of the versions of the pitch.

Read the rest of this entry »

Eric Longenhagen is publishing brief, informal notes from his looks at the prospects of the Arizona Fall League and, for the moment, the Fall Instructional League. Find all editions here.

For this edition of the Fall League notes, here’s a brief collection of superlatives from last week’s action.

Hardest Fastball
Riley Pint, RHP, Colorado Rockies (101 mph on team gun)

Best Breaking Ball
Riley Pint’s 85-mph slider at the 5:45 mark of this video

Best Offspeed
James Kaprielian, RHP, New York Yankees (changeup) (Video)

Best At-Bats
Pat Valaika, SS, Colorado Rockies

Loudest Contact
Ramon Laureano, OF, Houston Astros (Video)

Fastest Home-to-First time
Yefri Perez, CF, Miami Marlins (4.01 (R))

Other Notes from the Past Week
Yoan Moncada’s footwork at third base looks far more polished and effortless than I anticipated… White Sox LHP Louie Lechich, a converted outfielder, has only been pitching in games since July 28th and is already flashing a plus changeup… The quality of defense, especially among Fall League catchers, has been quite poor.