Yesterday, I was very casually listening to the radio as the Mariners played the Royals. I wasn’t paying attention to any details, really; it was the sort of listening where I wasn’t truly listening, and I could be reached only by an announcer raising his voice. An announcer did raise his voice when, in the fourth inning, the Mariners stretched their lead to 3-0. A run was driven home by Ketel Marte, and you can see the play right here:

Among the significant factors:

• left-handed pitcher, falling slightly off to the third-base side of the mound
• Kendrys Morales playing first base, instead of Eric Hosmer
• two outs

In a sense, the situation did call for a push bunt: Brian Flynn wasn’t ending up in a good position, and Morales doesn’t move around so well these days. But that last bullet is a big one. I’m not saying it was dumb — it was, after all, wildly successful! The last bullet just makes it unusual. As my attention was drawn in to the broadcast, half my mind assumed the announcer was just getting the number of outs wrong. You don’t see many similar bunts. I made a mental note to generate the InstaGraphs post that you’re reading right now.

What’s the frequency of a two-out RBI bunt, or of a two-out RBI bunt attempt? We go to the Play Index. Two-out bunts, in general, are of course fairly rare, as bunts go. There’s nothing to sacrifice, and there’s not much margin of error.

This year there have been 107 two-out bunts. Out of those, 18 took place with at least one runner in scoring position, and 13 took place with a runner on third. There have been five such RBI, and just days before Marte in Kansas City, Kolten Wong dropped down an almost identical and successful bunt against lefty Jeff Locke and the Pirates. Colby Rasmus has one of the RBI bunts, Chris Rusin has another, and Asdrubal Cabrera has the last. Note that this considers only bunts put in play — no consideration is given to missed or fouled attempts. That’s always one of those complicating factors with bunts, but if we’re judging just by outcomes, then Marte’s result, indeed, was unusual.

To me, the most important number is the 13. The number of two-out bunts in play with a runner on third. For a sense of scale, this season there have been 20 complete-game shutouts. Or, alternatively, this season, the Atlanta Braves have scored 20 runs. Marte’s bunt wasn’t one of a kind, but it’s not something an opponent would expect, which, in turn, makes it worth trying. It’s additionally worth trying because Marte hits poorly but runs well, so, here we are. You don’t see a lot of two-out RBI bunt attempts. Bunting is hard, and confidence is a factor. Yet there’s nothing wrong with a two-out RBI bunt attempt; it’s all a matter of evaluating probabilities. That Kolten Wong bunt, from earlier? Kolten Wong sucks against lefties. Why not try a bunt? It’s a perfectly valid tool made available to the mediocre.

The Red Sox engaged in some pre-deadline action yesterday by picking up veteran infielder Aaron Hill from the Brewers. In exchange for Hill’s services, Milwaukee received 20-year-old second baseman Wendell Rijo and 27-year-old starting pitcher Aaron Wilkerson. Here’s what my fancy computer math has to say about the minor leaguers involved in the deal.

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Aaron Wilkerson (Profile)

KATOH Forecast for first six seasons: 1.5 WAR

Already 27, Wilkerson isn’t aged like a prospect, but his performance in Triple-A this year is hard to ignore. As a result, he’s been a regular on Carson Cistulli’s “Fringe Five” column this year. In 92 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, the former undrafted indy-baller has struck out 27% of opposing hitters, while only walking 7%. He was similarly dominant last season, though most of those innings came against A-Ball hitters.

KATOH is skeptical of Wilkerson due to his age, but if you look past the “27” next to his stats, he looks very promising. He’s shown he’s capable of dominating Triple-A hitters. Pitchers who can do that often have some success in the big leagues as well.

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Wendell Rijo (Profile)

KATOH Forecast for first six seasons: 0.7 WAR

Though he’s just 20, Rijo spent most of this season at the Double-A level. Unfortunately, he didn’t hit a lick. The infielder hit a ghastly .186/.245/.266 in 51 Double-A games before the Sox sent him back to High-A three weeks ago.

Rijo is less than a year removed from a respectable .260/.324/.381 showing in High-A in 2015, so he hasn’t always been an atrocious hitter. But even last season, he struck out in over 20% of his trips to the plate. Rijo offers some defensive value and has age on his side, but his high strikeout rates are troubling. Throw in that his numbers have gotten progressively worse at each stop, and he looks pretty fringy.

The Brewers acquired pitching prospect Aaron Wilkerson (and infield prospect Wendel Rijo) from the Red Sox this afternoon in exchange for Aaron Hill.

Who is Aaron Wilkerson? The short answer is that he’s a 27-year-old right-hander who went undrafted out of Cumberland University, where he threw an NAIA record 54 consecutive scoreless innings. He underwent Tommy John surgery, then pitched independent league ball before being signed by the Red Sox during the 2014 season. He’s far exceeded expectations. In 17 games this season between Double-A Portland and Triple-A Pawtucket, Wilkerson has a 2.14 ERA and has allowed just 69 hits in 92-and-a-third innings. He’s fanned 102 and walked 25.

Here is a snapshot scouting report on Wilkerson, courtesy of Pawtucket manager Kevin Boles:

“Interesting fastball. There’s some deception (and) late ride. Every night that he pitches, he gets about six to eight swings-and-misses off his fastball. Hitters seem to chase up in the zone with him. His velocity is 88-92. He sits around 90-91 (but) it looks like he’s throwing harder than that. With the deception that’s in there, guys don’t pick the ball up very well.

“He can pitch to both sides of the plate. His breaking ball and slider are developing pitches right now. Changeup, he’s got pretty good hand speed. He’s very aggressive. Attacks the zone. Great work habits. Quiet demeanor. Studies what’s going on — studies the opposing hitters — but he trusts his stuff. There’s a game presence there where he’s attacking and doesn’t fear contact. There’s a lot to be said for that.”

It’s always dangerous to assume everyone else is the same as you are. Just because you don’t give a shit about poems doesn’t mean other people don’t give a shit about poems. You want to be careful not to assume too much of your own preferences and experiences. That being said, I’m pretty comfortable with one assumption — I’ve barely paid attention to the Padres, and I feel like most people have barely paid attention to the Padres. That’s not to say no one has paid attention to the Padres, but those who have are probably few and far between. You know how it goes. Apparently Austin Hedges is leading all Triple-A hitters in slugging percentage by like a million points. I learned this Tuesday morning. Austin Hedges? Whatever.

About a certain Padres player, then. Apologies to those of you for whom this isn’t new news, but something has quietly been taking place. Remember when the Padres picked up Melvin Upton Jr.? They did it in the Craig Kimbrel trade, and they took him on as a salary dump. The Braves just wanted to be rid of him, and right away, the Padres put Upton on the DL. He did come back and play, eventually. He played well. And he hasn’t…stopped…playing well. Away from the spotlight, away from the pressure, Upton has rediscovered his talent. It sure looks to me like Melvin Upton Jr. is back.

The Braves signed Upton after the 2012 season. In the table below, you’ll see three lines of numbers. You see the three years of Upton leading up to free agency. You see his two catastrophic years with the Braves. And you see his past year as a Padre.

I’ll be damned. Recent Upton isn’t the exact same as earlier Upton, but the profile is awfully close. Strikeout-prone power hitter with athletic, all-around skills. Upton, back then, looked like a borderline star. For the past year or so, he’s played like a borderline star. You can never forget about a dip like the dip he had, and it’s not like Upton would forgive himself for that or anything, but the player Upton looks like now is the player the Braves wanted to sign. He didn’t hit the ground running, but Upton is working to salvage the contract he agreed to. He lived through a professional nightmare, and he didn’t let it destroy him.

Over the weekend, Upton mashed a walk-off dinger against the impossible Andrew Miller. In the past year, Upton has clocked in with a 36% hard-hit rate, matching Jay Bruce and Andrew McCutchen. The Braves got burned. You do have to wonder how much another team would trust Upton, at this point. But he’s made himself appealing again, at least to some extent, and his contract extends through next year, when he’ll earn around $17 million. What’s crazy now is it’s not too hard to imagine Upton actually being worth that salary. All he’d have to be is something like an average outfielder, and lately he’s been clearing that bar. Clearing it easily! Melvin Upton Jr. could be a legitimate trade target. The Padres might not have to eat too much money. They got a bad break with the Jon Jay injury, but this career reversal is working out.

Upton’s back. If he’s not all the way back, he’s seemingly most of the way back. That’s astonishing in and of itself, and you could write a book about all this. Hell of a story, Melvin Upton Jr.’s. Another time, we can celebrate how Upton has found himself. For now, it’s July, and Upton is a talented veteran on a go-nowhere team. Front offices are going to call about Upton. Front offices are going to want Upton. Upton, once again, ought to be wanted. What a game this is.

Javier Baez is a home-run hitter, and on Tuesday against the Reds, he hit a home run. This is a video of said home run, linked because it is not yet embeddable. I would encourage you to watch the home run, because why not?, but if you’re not in the mood, check out the catcher’s pitch signal:

The count was 1-and-2, and Javier Baez is also a strikeout hitter, so the signal was for a pitch in the dirt. If not for a pitch in the dirt, then it was at least for a pitch well below the zone. Nothing unusual for the circumstance. Here’s the pitch that Baez ultimately hit:

Yeah, so, whoopsadoodle. What was supposed to be thrown was a pitch below the knee. What was actually thrown was a pitch over the middle and at the belt, with Baez already in swing mode and probably guessing offspeed. Baez strikes out and hits home runs. Featured here, he got his home run.

Like many hitters, Baez crushes pitches in the zone. Like many hitters, Baez doesn’t so much crush pitches out of the zone. This, of course, is exactly why hitters go up there looking for a good pitch to hit, in theory. The strike zone is roughly the same as the hitting zone. That’s why it’s the strike zone. According to Baseball Savant, when Baez has hit a batted ball, he’s slugged .817 against would-be strikes, and .397 against would-be balls. Remember, this is when Baez has made contact. He makes more effective contact in the zone. There’s nothing weird about this.

Yet I present Baez in this case as the opposite of Michael Saunders. I wrote about Saunders a few weeks ago, and in there, I pointed out Saunders’ high rate of batted balls against pitches in the zone. In other words, when Saunders has turned pitches around, he’s mostly been turning around strikes, helping him maximize his contact quality. Every leaderboard that has a top has a bottom. Let’s look at the bottom, in terms of batted balls against strikes over all batted balls. I’m using a minimum of 100 batted balls, so you know.

I’m a complete sucker for lists with big gaps. Can’t get enough of them! As you see here, the difference between second-lowest and third-lowest is…well, as seen here, it’s nothing. It’s a tie. There’s not much separating many of these players, and then there’s Baez, in last place by more than six percentage points. Out of Baez’s batted balls, just 47% have come against pitches in the zone. Then there’s the next-closest player, at 54%. That’s laughable, if baseball statistics are ever laughable. Maybe they aren’t? That’s a different post.

I doubt that you just learned anything new about Javier Baez. I mean, you just learned a new fact, but you probably already knew he’s aggressive. Discipline is his problem, as you can see from his contact rates and O-Swing%. But, you know, after Tuesday, Baez is sitting on a 104 wRC+. That puts him right there with names like Todd Frazier and Jason Kipnis. Baez is kind of succeeding like this, and what it really indicates is Baez’s upside if he could ever figure out how to lay off pitchers’ pitches. Over-aggressive hitters usually don’t do that, so I wouldn’t hold my breath. Yet, remember when we all wanted to fall in love with Javier Baez? This is why it’s easy to love him, and this is also why it’s difficult. There’s a special player in there, almost half the time.

The Royals line-up has been crushed by injuries this year, with Alex Gordon and Lorenzo Cain both spending chunks of time on the DL, and Mike Moustakas lost for the season due to a torn ACL. Today, the injury bug is apparently moving over to the pitching side of things too.

Wade Davis is going on the disabled list with a right forearm strain. Brooks Pounders is being called up.

— Rustin Dodd (@rustindodd) July 5, 2016

On a superficial level, Davis has seemed fine this year, running a 1.23 ERA and converting 19 of 21 save opportunities. But this news probably shouldn’t come as a huge surprise, because there have been some lingering red flags for a while now.

Davis struck out just seven of the 40 batters he faced in June, a remarkably low total for a guy who has been one of the most dominant relievers in baseball for the last few years. Interestingly, though, the other traditional red flag associated with pitcher injuries — velocity decline — has actually not been an issue for Davis. In fact, his velo has been trending up all season.

Of course, the upwards trend is mostly him getting back to where he threw the last few years, as his velocity was down a lot in April and May, so velocity decline was an issue earlier. It’s a bit odd that his strikeouts are disappearing at the same time his velocity is coming back, but given the existence of both issues within the first four months, the fact that he’s headed to the DL makes plenty of sense.

For the Royals, this is a pretty big loss, as Davis has been the anchor of their bullpen, which is really the only thing keeping them in contention at this point. The team has had the worst starting rotation in the AL this season, and their offense isn’t anything special. Without Davis, the team will likely have to shift Kelvin Herrera into the closer role, weakening the team’s middle relief significantly, and they might have a tough time winning as many close games as they have become accustomed to.

Given that the All-Star break is coming up, it is possible that the Royals are just using this timing to give Davis a bit of an extended break — this keeps him from going to San Diego, after all — and perhaps the issue won’t be a long-term concern. But forearm tightness is often a precursor to Tommy John surgery, and if the Royals lose Davis for an extended period, it will be a big blow to their chances to get back to the postseason.

Over the weekend, the Cubs called up third baseman Jeimer Candelario to replace the injured Chris Coghlan on the roster. Candelario enjoyed a breakout season last year, when he hit .277/.339/.431 as a 21-year-old between High-A and Double-A. He carried some of that success over to 2016 by hitting .249/.359/.428 between Double-A and Triple-A this year. This included a beastly .333/.452/.600 in his 25 game pit stop at Triple-A.

Candelario’s offensive game is largely centered around doubles and walks. He laced 24 doubles in 81 minor-league games this year and walked in an impressive 14% of his trips to the plate. On the downside, he didn’t make a tremendous amount of contact in the high minors, which suggests he may struggle against big-league pitching. His 19% strikeout rate from this year is fine, but you’d like to see a little more bat-to-ball ability from someone with merely OK power numbers.

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The Cuban National Team is touring the independent Can-Am League right now and their roster includes two of the three best prospects left in Cuba. Below are my brief thoughts on those two prospects as a supplement to this week’s July 2 content, as both of them would fall under the J2 bonus guidelines were they to leave Cuba.

Luis Moiran Robert, OF, 6’2, 180, R/R

Robert (the second syllable is pronounced the way it is in Stephen Colbert and not the way it is in Keary Colbert) body comps to Alex Gordon. He has plus bat speed, advanced pitch recognition and generates contact to all fields. He walked three times on Wednesday and also showed the ability to make adjustments in the middle of at-bats. Reports from international scouts on his bat control were better than what I saw and his weight is distributed a little too heavily on his front foot for my taste, but Robert is only 19 and clearly has prodigious physical skill and a good approach so I’m not too concerned about the lack of results on this Can-Am tour. He’s hitting .255/.263/.291 on this trip and looks a little disintereste,d but he hit .305/.384/.413 last year in Serie Nacional at age 18 and is already hitting third in the lineup for the National Team.

I didn’t get a good time on Robert from home to first because of all the walks, but eyeballed him as an above-average runner on a few steal attempts. I’m not sure that Robert will retain the wheels for CF as he fills out but he should at least be a defensive asset in a corner and I think he’ll hit enough to play there.

Early this spring, scouts lost track of Robert and thought he might have left the island.

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Well, we’re almost to July, and teams that need pitching help have decided not to wait any longer. According to reports, two small trades for pitching help are being completed this afternoon.

Heard the Padres and Marlins are nearing a deal for Fernando Rodney for a good A-ball prospect

— keithlaw (@keithlaw) June 30, 2016

Sources: #Dodgers getting Bud Norris from #Braves.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) June 30, 2016

Neither Fernando Rodney nor Bud Norris are the kinds of guys that are going to single handedly carry you to the playoffs, but both also have their value in providing useful depth, and both are having excellent starts to the 2016 season. Rodney’s strikeout rate has spiked back up this year, allowing him to be an effective pitcher even with his command problems, and will likely slide into the Marlins bullpen, allowing them to ride A.J. Ramos, David Phelps, and Kyle Barraclough a bit less in the second half. Though, if Keith Law is correct that the Marlins gave up a “good prospect” to get a half season of Rodney’s inconsistency, that seems like a steep price to pay. But we’ll have to wait and see what price they paid.

For the Dodgers, this was very likely a reaction to the news that Clayton Kershaw is heading to the DL, weakening the team’s rotation even further. Norris has been pretty good of late, and as Jeff Sullivan recently noted, that’s coincided with him getting rid of his garbage change-up and replacing it with an effective cutter. If that swap continues to pay dividends, he could be a nice back-end starter for the team in the second half.

That said, Norris also has a pretty long history of underperforming his peripheral numbers, with +11 WAR in his career if you go by the FIP-based WAR, but only +6 WAR if you go by RA9. With over 1,000 big league innings, it’s pretty likely that a good chunk of that difference is due to Norris’ own weaknesses and not just bad luck, so we shouldn’t expect him to be as good as his FIP suggests. But even with some BABIP issues, a guy with average walk and strikeout rates and some groundballs can be useful, and Norris is good enough against RHPs that he could be an effective situational reliever in the playoffs, if the Dodgers manage to get there.

Like with the Rodney deal, we don’t know what the acquisition cost was, but the Dodgers certainly needed to add an arm with Kershaw going down for at least a few weeks. Norris isn’t an ace, but he can help the team survive for a little while, and if this new cutter proves effective, maybe even do more than that.

On rare occasion, I’ll interview a player and end up not writing about him — at least not right away — despite fully intending to. This happened with Brock Stewart, who will be making his major-league debut with the Los Angeles Dodgers later tonight.

Stewart was more of a project than a prospect when I talked to him last summer. A sixth-round pick in 2014 out of Illinois State University, the converted infielder was having his ups and downs pitching for Rancho Cucamonga in the High-A California League. But his potential was apparent. Not long after we spoke, it was speculated that Stewart would be part of the three-team, multi-player deal that sent Mat Latos to L.A.

After a sophomore season at Illinois State that saw him hit .330/.402/.496, Stewart thought he’d go on to be drafted as a position player. That changed late in his junior year. The Normal, Illinois, native was scuffling at the plate, and opening eyes in occasional appearances out of the bullpen. One of his coaches suggested that he focus more on pitching, and his father, a pro scout for the Padres (and now the Rays), agreed. Jeff Stewart told his son “a lot of scouts, myself included, think your arm is your best tool.”

The youngster was a little surprised — “I always thought I was going to be playing in the infield for a big-league team someday” — but he heeded the advice. As he put it, “You have to go with the flow, and for me, that flow was toward the mound.” Read the rest of this entry »