Daily Projections by SaberSim on FanGraphs!

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August 10, 2015

Daily projections courtesy of SaberSim.com are now available on the player pages and in a sortable format!

Matt Hunter, creator of SaberSim.com, explains the projections:

FanGraphs has long been home to a variety of excellent projection systems, each with its own distinguishing features that attempt to predict future performance as effectively as possible. Though these systems differ from one another in many respects, one common trait is that they project performance over an extended period of time—season, rest of season, or even multiple seasons. Beginning this week, FanGraphs will also feature a daily projection for each player. The daily projections are created by SaberSim, and are updated each day to reflect the specific factors the player will encounter in the matchup at hand.

SaberSim, as the name suggests, utilizes simulation to produce player and team projections. By simulating – thousands of times – every event of a particular game, the simulator is able to account for the unique context of each game and the interaction between players, using the actual posted lineups and starting pitcher assignments. It starts with Steamer rest-of-season projections (including handedness splits) for each player, then adjusts the probability of each event based on a number of context-specific factors. These include: regressed home-plate umpire strikeout/walk tendencies, handedness- and event-specific park factors, game-time temperature and wind speed/direction, home/away splits, and perhaps most importantly, batter-pitcher matchups using the Odds Ratio method. The adjusted rates are then fed into the simulator, which keeps track of the outcome of each play and the statistics for each player over the course of the simulated games.

The daily projection for every player in a starting lineup on a given day is featured towards the top of his player page, and the full leaderboard can be found in the Projections page linked above. The projections consist of the mean number of each outcome a player produced over the course of thousands of simulated games. Therefore, the numbers displayed do not represent the probability of each event happening, but rather the average number of times it happened per simulated game.

A quick note on these projections: the simulator currently only runs games with a single starting lineup for each team – for lineups that aren’t yet posted, we use the team’s most recent lineup vs. the opposing pitcher’s handedness. This means that until lineups are officially posted, you may not see projections for all players – if, for example, a player had a day off the day before. Because of this, the projections are most accurate and useful after all lineups from a given game are official. Usually this occurs about 4-5 hours before start time.

Over the past year and a half, SaberSim has grown from a basic simulator to an advanced tool for projecting daily performance on an individual and team level. While all player projections can be found right here on FanGraphs, you can find additional data and tools, such as specific team and player distributions and a daily fantasy lineup optimizer, on SaberSim.com. We look forward to sharing these daily projections with the FanGraphs community over the days and weeks to come, and welcome any comments, criticisms, or suggestions as we continue to improve the effectiveness of the simulator and the site. Enjoy!


The Good, the Bad and the Greinke

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August 7, 2015

On June 23, 1971 – that’s two months after A Fistful of Death had its release date, for those of you who crave historical context – Phillies pitcher Rick Wise enjoyed the kind of performance that might best be described as “The Good, the Great and the Wise,” if only because it perfectly fits this narrative. On that day in Cincinnati, the 25-year-old righty not only no-hit the Reds but also homered twice, racking up three of Philly’s four runs batted in, in a 4-0 victory against the defending National League champions.

That’s the sort of game you might have twice in a lifetime: once, when you’re a 25-year-old righty on June 23, 1971, and once when you’re 10 in the Pony League.

Why do we mention this? It’s not because we own stock in Rick Wise’s Most Fabulous Day Ever Enterprises. It’s because yesterday, against the same Philadelphia franchise, Dodgers righty Zack Greinke had the kind of performance that might best be described as … well, you saw the headline up there, right? It perfectly fits this narrative.

In L.A.’s eventual 10-8 victory, Greinke, who entered the game with an ERA of a precocious Pony Leaguer (1.41), allowed six earned runs – five in the first inning alone – but balanced that stink job by going 3-for-3 at the plate, with three runs scored, a solo homer and one theatric bat flip.

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In so doing, he became the second Dodgers pitcher to score thrice in a game since Claude Osteen in 1970; the first to go 3-for-3 or better with a home run since Leo Dickerman in 1923; and the first to yield five earned runs in the first inning of a game in which he also bat-flipped like nobody’s business since…well, you Dodgers historians will have to answer that one.

Greinke now enters his next start with an ERA of 1.71 and a batting average of .220. What does it all mean? First, it means that baseball is, as ever, just plain weird. It also means that given his abilities at the plate, plus the fact that he allowed just one earned run in his final six innings, Greinke is still worth A Fistful of Dollars.

Seriously.

The 1964 Spaghetti Western, a forerunner to The Good, the Bad and The Ugly, has made $14.5 million to date. And if we value each win – i.e., $/WAR – at around $7 million, then Greinke, with a 2015 fWAR of 4.2, is worth roughly twice what the Clint Eastwood shoot-’em-up has earned, with enough left For a Few Dollars More.

Seriously. The budget for that Spaghetti Western was just $600,000.


Ketel Marte Continues to Fly Under the Radar

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August 7, 2015

Although he was perpetually young for his level, Ketel Marte more than held his own at every stop as he ascended through the Mariners system. In 2013, he posted a 91 wRC+ as a 19-year-old between Low-A and High-A. In 2014, at the tender age of 20, he put up a 105 spot between Double-A and Triple-A. This year, his .314/.359/.410 showing in Triple-A resulted a 107 wRC+. Even more impressive is that he did all of this while primarily playing shortstop.

Yet, despite his history of success at a young age, Marte’s always flown under the prospect radar. He’s never appeared on a top 100 list, and barely made Kiley McDaniel’s top 200 list heading into the season.

With Robinson Cano banged up last week, the Mariners called Marte up to the majors. But in typical Ketel Marte fashion, his call up flew under the radar, overshadowed by this year’s wild trade deadline. I’ll admit I didn’t even notice he had been called up until just a couple of days ago. Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Sydney Blue Sox Baseball Analytics & Associate Scouting Intern

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August 7, 2015

Just to be clear, there are two separate positions here.

Position: Sydney Blue Sox, Baseball Analytics Intern

Location: Various locations throughout US, with a preference for Chicago

Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Cleveland Indians Baseball Systems Developer

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August 7, 2015

Position: Cleveland Indians, Developer – Baseball Systems

Location: Cleveland

Read the rest of this entry »


A First Look at White Sox Outfielder Trayce Thompson

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August 6, 2015

With the end of the minor league drawing near, teams are starting to call up some of their more promising Triple-A players to the big leagues. Just this week, we’ve had the pleasure of seeing Richie Shaffer, Jon Gray, Henry Owens and Luis Severino take the field for the first time. Also called up, but somewhat lost in the shuffle, was 24-year-old White Sox outfielder Trayce Thompson, who struck out in his one trip to the plate so far.

The White Sox called up Thompson to replace J.B. Shuck, who’s set to miss at least the next couple of weeks with a hamstring strain. A former second round pick, Thompson has always been a premium athlete. In fact, he’s the son of former NBA center Mychal Thompson, and the brother of Klay Thompson of the Golden State Warriors. Athleticism clearly runs in the family.

Yet despite his tremendous athletic ability, Thompson’s unrefined baseball skills have rendered him a fringe prospect over the course of his minor league stay. With a .180 Isolated Power and 11 steals, he demonstrated an enticing combination of power and speed in Triple-A this year. However, his 5% walk rate and 19% strikeout rate speak to his unrefined approach at the plate. Read the rest of this entry »


2015 Park Factors Update

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August 5, 2015

Last night we updated our park factors for the 2015 season and made a slight correction to our FIP pitching park factors.

The correction is very small and effects almost all teams by less than .01. Of note, Rockies teams in the late 1990’s and early 2000’s, had the largest impact and will have their FIP park factors increased by about .03.


Dave Dombrowski Out in Detroit

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August 4, 2015

In a move that seemingly came out of nowhere, Tigers owner Mike Ilitch has announced today that the team has released Dave Dombrowski from his contract so he can pursue other opportunities elsewhere. Assistant GM Al Avila was promoted to replace him as General Manager of the team, effective immediately.

Dombrowski wasn’t under contract past this year, so there have been rumors that he could take a job with another organization this winter, but it’s a bit surprising to see the Tigers let him go now. One could potentially connect the dots with Larry Lucchino being removed from the Red Sox CEO role yesterday — perhaps Dombrowski suggested to Ilitch that he’d like to interview for that job, and Ilitch decided to let him go in order to do so — but the released statement makes it sound like this was more Ilitch’s decision than Dombrowski’s.

Clearly, Dombrowski has been quite successful in Detroit, even though the 2015 season didn’t go as the team had hoped, and he’ll be in high demand this winter. The Blue Jays are still looking for a long-term CEO replacement for the retiring Paul Beeston, and he’d potentially be a fit in Anaheim as well, where the front office is still under construction after Jerry Dipoto resigned last month. If the Mariners or Brewers decide to turn over their baseball operations departments, I’d expect both would be highly interested in Dombrowski as well.

There’s a press conference in half an hour, and perhaps there the Tigers will clarify whether this was done now because the team already knew Dombrowski was leaving this winter anyway, or whether he was shown the door because of the team’s failures on the field this year. Either way, I’d expect Dombrowski will become one of the most coveted free agents out there, and will probably have his pick of which organization he wants to run next.


Deadline Day Transaction/Rumor Omnibus Post

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July 31, 2015

At the winter meetings last year, there were so many concurrent trades that I literally couldn’t finish typing the news to one post before I had to start on the next, and finally, I just gave up and created an omnibus post for all the trade announcements at one time. Given that there are still a good number of potential deals on the table for today, I’m going to follow the same strategy today, but get a jump on things, putting the catch-all post up early, so we can use this to put up tidbits of deals as they come out. We’ll be continually updating this post, mostly with things from various Twitter feeds, throughout the day, and will be writing longer reactions to the trades after they happen.

Below, you’ll find a running list of “rumored deals.” Once they turn from rumor into deal, they will go to the bottom of the page, under “done deals.” The “rumored deals” will be updated with the most recent rumor moving to the top of the block. Got it? Good, keep it.

RUMORED DEALS

Dodgers Moving Alex Wood Already?

The Aroldis Chapman Market

Oh Boy — Or Not

Craig Kimbrel’s Market

All the Nerdy Teams Want Tyson Ross or Carlos Carrasco

DONE DEALS

Mets Get Yoenis Cespedes, Not Jay Bruce

A’s Get Felix Doubront


Twins Get Kevin Jepsen

Blue Jays Get Ben Revere

Cubs Get Dan Haren

Blue Jays Get Mark Lowe

Cardinals Get Jonathan Broxton

Orioles Get Gerardo Parra


Mets Reportedly Acquire Cespedes

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July 31, 2015

When the Tigers traded Rick Porcello to the Red Sox for Yoenis Cespedes in December, they exchanged one player going into the final year of his contract for another (Detroit also got reliever Alex Wilson in the deal). Boston subsequently inked Porcello to a four-year extension worth $82.5 million. Detroit went in another direction, opting to hold their cards on Cespedes. Today, they dealt him to the Mets in exchange for a pair of prospects.

Exactly how much interest Dave Dombrowski and Company had in extending Porcello prior to moving him last winter is hard to say. Conversely, it’s safe to say they didn’t feel he was worth what it would take to retain him. Based on his performance in Boston, they were right in their evaluation. Read the rest of this entry »


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