When examining the Rest of Season projections from either ZiPS or Steamer, one will notice in both systems that Giancarlo Stanton is expected to finish just short of the league lead in home runs. While this is a tremendous accomplishment on its own, Stanton’s projected presence near the top of the home-run charts looks like an even more tremendous feat considering that Stanton has already missed 22 games this season, and will be missing even more as he recovers from a fractured left wrist.

At first glance the two projection systems regard Stanton very differently: ZiPS projects Stanton to finish second in the league in home runs at 43 — a single dinger behind Mike Trout — and Steamer projects that Stanton will finish tied for sixth, at 36. Upon further inspection, both projection systems regard Stanton’s on-field skills very similarly: ZiPS is projecting a home run once every 13 PAs, and Steamer once every 12.67 PAs. (Stanton has deposited a souvenir in the bleachers once every 11.7 PAs so far this season.) The true difference is that ZiPS is more confident in Stanton’s continued health, projecting only nine missed games from Stanton for the rest of the season, while Steamer projects that Stanton will finish the season with about 100 fewer PAs, or I guess about 25 missed games on top of the ZiPS projection.

So I wondered: how often does a player reach the league lead of a cumulative counting stat while missing such a huge chunk of the season? It turns out that players who finish on the edge of qualification actually hit the top 10 in some category just about every year — except when it comes to total hits, and home runs.

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Back in spring training, I had a chance to talk hitting with Kyle Schwarber. As fate would have it, our conversation was brief. The Cubs’ clubhouse closed a few minutes after we began chatting, and I was airport-bound by the time it reopened.

In May, I arranged a follow-up phone interview while Schwarber was playing at Triple-A Iowa. We spoke for a little over five minutes, but fate once again intervened. Upon disconnecting, I discovered that the frayed cable – the one I should have replaced months earlier – leading from ear to Digital Voice Recorder had failed. Not a word spoken by Schwarber was audible on tape.

I opted not to call back and ask if he was amenable to a re-do. Rather than aplogetically impose, I decided to wait for my planned visit to Wrigley Field in late June, knowing there was a good chance he’d be called up by then. He was, but as luck would have it, three days before I arrived in Chicago, he was returned to Iowa.

The slugger is back with the big club, and given his offensive explosion, he’s likely to be sticking around this time. But even though I’ll be returning to Wrigley in a few weeks, I’m not going to tempt fate yet again. Here is what Schwarber had to say in Mesa: Read the rest of this entry »

Just to be clear, there are two separate positions here.

Position: Milwaukee Brewers Developer – Baseball Systems

Location: Milwaukee

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When we first picked Dan Warthen’s brain about his specific slider, Noah Syndergaard did say that he’d played around with the pitch, but only to improve a different pitch. “I played with it a little bit to pick up the RPMs on my curveball,” he said then. Yesterday, Syndergaard did more than play with it — he threw eight of them, making it the second time this year that he’s thrown the pitch that often.

It looked like this:

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Position: Atlanta Braves Baseball Operations Analyst

Location: Atlanta

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Last night, USA Today’s Bob Nightengale made some pretty big waves with his report that the Tigers are preparing to become sellers, making David Price and Yoenis Cespedes available to teams looking to upgrade their rosters for the stretch run.

It’s going to be awfully painful, and the Detroit Tigers sure hate to do this, but for the good of the organization, they simply have no choice.

The Tigers, barring a veto from owner Mike Ilitch, are going to surrender and be sellers within the next 10 days at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.

For the first time since 2008, the Tigers have no choice but to inform teams that two of their marquee commodities will be dealt by the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline.

That’s some pretty strong language, and given that “they simply have no choice”, you’d think the Tigers were in the midst of a total meltdown, or had squandered any chance they had of reaching the postseason. But while Nightengale may be right in his reporting, his editorializing isn’t really all that rooted in factual basis. Consider, for instance this graph of the projected final standings in the American League, based on our depth charts forecasts.

The Royals, Yankees, and Angels have put themselves in strong positions to win their divisions, and the Astros remain the most likely Wild Card team, with a real shot at the AL West themselves. Those four teams are each more likely to make the postseason than not.

But look at the drop-off after Houston. The Blue Jays, Twins, Orioles, and Indians are in a virtual tie with the Tigers for fifth place, with none of them expected to finish with more than 82 wins. Someone will break out from the pack and likely win 85-87 games and capture that second Wild Card spot, but the Tigers are just as likely to be that team as any of the other four, and in no way are they in a position where 2015 is a total write-off. In fact, the Tigers have better odds now than the 1997 White Sox did when they initiated the infamous White Flag Trade.

The Tigers should probably be listening mode, as it’s possible a team will make them an offer that justifies giving up their estimated 26.5% playoff odds; if you can flip Price for a guy who can step right in to the big leagues and is under control for next year as well — similar to last year’s Jon Lester for Yoenis Cespedes trade — then it could be worth downgrading this year’s chances to upgrade next year’s shot. I wouldn’t say that the Tigers odds are so strong that they shouldn’t even consider moving Price or Cespedes.

But I just don’t see how we can look at the landscape in the American League and determine that the Tigers have to move Price and Cespedes for whatever they can get. The Tigers season is far from over, and there are plenty of reasons to keep this group together and try to make a run. If someone makes a crazy offer that you just can’t turn down, okay, but the Tigers shouldn’t be throwing away legitimate playoff odds just because they aren’t as good as they’re used to.

Update: Everything should currently be up and running!

Due to scheduled maintenance, FanGraphs will be unavailable tonight between 11:30pm and 2:30 am ET. We’ll try and get things back up and running as quickly as possible and hopefully won’t need the entire 3 hour window.

Before this season began, I wrote at The Hardball Times about the best modern triple-hitters (a.k.a. triplers), or the active players who have the best shot at challenging the post-war record, Roberto Clemente’s 161 career triples.

What I learned is: it’s basically impossible. (As is, arguably, the pursuit of just about any other counting-stat record.) In order to have a shot, the player must begin their major league career early as an everyday player, and average a triple once every 50-60 plate appearances throughout their twenties, followed by a graceful decline of a triple once every 60-70 plate appearances throughout their thirties. Read the rest of this entry »

I’ll apologize in advance, because I don’t draw any stunning conclusions from this post. I am, however, going to present the data from my most recent toilings with baseball data. I was reading Wendy Thurm’s most recent article, and I noticed a commenter that pointed out the positions’ offensive output was more similar and closer to overall league average in the last few years compared to the past 20 years. My immediate reaction was to blame or credit the low run environment. My thoughts are that a higher run environment would produce more random variation for each player, which in turn would produce more variance in the entire league.

There are a multitude of factors that affect the talent distribution aside from the possibility of run environment such as training, performance-enhancing drugs, expansion, wars, and talent evaluation. With my quick exploration, I was not able to take these into account, so the following data visualizations serve as more exploratory analysis than any conclusive analysis.

I found the variance of a handful of offensive stats among players with more than 500 PA and plotted them against the run environment. I included the seasons from 1900 to 2014 for NL and 1901 to 2014 for AL, but I removed the 1981 and -94 season owing to the strikes in those particular years. You can change the stat and the league. I also included a histogram to show the shape of the distribution of the stat for a particular year.

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I’m in the Red Sox clubhouse for the vast majority of their home games, so I could easily write about the team on a regular basis. I choose not to. They get plenty of coverage as it is, and there are 29 other clubs. For the most part, I keep my Boston content to a minimum.

Brock Holt being named to the American League All-Star team is something I can’t refrain from penning (to use an archaic term) a few words on. After all, I’ve been banging the Holt drum since early in the current campaign.

Holt is a throwback, the type of player who provides value beyond his raw numbers. And his numbers aren’t chicken soup. Playing every position on the field besides pitcher and catcher, Holt is hitting .295/.383/.424. On a team of underachievers, he’s anything but.

This past weekend, I asked A.J. Hinch about Holt. The Houston Astros manager described him perfectly, saying Holt “does everything pretty well, maybe without dominating any one particular part of the game.” He called Holt “a tough out” and “a very impressive player.” As you might expect, he lauded his versatility.

A few weeks earlier, another manager expressed even more admiration. Holt hit for the cycle against the Atlanta Braves at Fenway Park, and after the game I spoke to Fredi Gonzalez. As I was exiting his office, he stopped me with a tongue-in-cheek request.

“Can you do me a favor?” asked Gonzalez. “Go over there and tell (Holt), ‘If they don’t want him, we’ll take him.’ I’ve always loved that (expletive). He’s a nice player to have, because he can play all over the field and he gives you a helluva an at bat.”

Brock Holt – essentially a throw-in in the December 2012 Joel Hanrahan–Mark Melancon deal – is the lone All-Star representative for a team with a payroll pushing $200 million. That’s a story well worth writing about.

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Addendum per Red Sox media relations: Holt is the first player ever to be named an All-Star after appearing at 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, LF, CF, and RF prior to the All-Star break.