The FanGraphs Auction Calculator now calculates in-season values and values off Rest of Season projections.

Some Notes:

• Rest of Season auction value calculations are available for Steamer, Depth Charts, ZiPS, and THE BAT projection systems.
• Dollar values for Rest of Season projections are pro-rated for how many days are remaining in the season.
• In-season auction value calculations are pro-rated for the number of days into the season.
• Positional eligibility for in-season calculations is determined via positions played in 2018. Please adjust your position qualifications accordingly.

Position: Data Engineer

Description:

The Rockies are looking for a Data Engineer to join their Research and Development team. The successful candidate will be responsible for expanding and optimizing their data warehouse and data pipeline architecture, with a focus on collecting, cleaning, transforming, managing and validating data using distributed computing and storage systems. The goal of the Data Engineer is to democratize data, support data initiatives, ensure consistent data delivery and empower Rockies personnel to derive powerful and actionable insights.

Responsibilities and Duties:

• Create, maintain and optimize data ETL/ELT pipelines
• Documentation of data/pipelines
• Ensure the ingestion of data and errors are handled without interruption
• Process and securely store extremely sensitive data for callback and future use
• Prepare distributed, disjoint, multi-formatted data sets for data scientists
• Research and investigate new and interesting datasets to include in our data warehouse
• Perform quantitative research related to baseball strategy and player evaluation
• Collaborate with coaches, scouts and baseball operations to suggest process improvements

Requirements:

Education and Work Experience

• Bachelor’s degree in Computer Science/Engineering
  • Candidates still in school (junior or senior level) with extensive work towards such degree will be considered
• SQL knowledge and experience working with a variety of relational databases such as MySQL, PostgreSQL, or SQL Server
• Experience with a variety of structured, semi-structured and un-structured data formats including delimited files, XML, JSON and natural language text
• Ability to effectively use multiple programming languages including one of the major data science languages of Python, R or Scala
• Experience or working knowledge of “Big Data” tools such as Hadoop, Hive, Spark or Presto is a plus
• Experience with AWS Cloud services such as EC2, RDS, and S3 is a plus
• Experience with data workflow tools such as Luigi, or Airflow is a plus
• Knowledge and understanding of baseball and baseball statistics

Functional Skills

• Ability to work evenings and weekends required
• Passion for the intersection of baseball and data
• Passion for quality data
• Strong organizational skills and ability to self-start
• Strong intellectual curiosity
• Desire to learn and contribute
• Ability to work in a collaborative and open team environment
• Ability to develop and maintain successful working relationship with members of the Front Office

To Apply:
Qualified candidates should send their letter of interest and resume to BaseballJobs@rockies.com no later than June 3, 2018.

Much like the update last month, nothing in how we calculate our playoff odds has changed, but we’ve added a new feature to the page. We are now reporting the distribution of wins from the Monte Carlo simulation.

Specifically:

• The 25th percentile;
• The 75th percentile; and
• A histogram of projected wins.*

*The average is already reported as expected wins.

You can find this if you select the new display option in the dropdown of the same name.

Read the rest of this entry »

Position: Analyst, Player Development

Location: Chicago, IL

Description:
The Chicago Cubs are seeking an analyst to join the Research and Development group in Baseball Operations. This role will focus on the management and analysis of data gathered on players in the Chicago Cubs minor league system and will work closely with the both the Player Development and R&D departments. Succesful candidates will bring a background in analytics, a strong interest in evidence-based coaching and development, and the communication skills to work effectively with player development personnel to apply analytics and improve the effective understanding of data to optimize prospect performance and progression.

Responsibilities:

• Research, develop and test methods and models for the purpose of player assessment and developmentIdentify technologies, analyze data and translate into tangible coaching and skill development objectives.
• Effectively present analyses through the use of written reports and data visualization methods to disseminate insights to members of baseball operations and player development personnel.
• Handle analysis requests from and conduct studies to support player development personnel, coaches, and players.
• Conduct in-depth evaluations of Cubs prospects.
• As needed, travel to minor league affiliates to support player development initiatives.
• Identify, diagnose and resolve data quality issues.
• Examine and implement sports science technologies that may offer innovative data solutions.

Required Qualifications:

• Bachelor’s degree in an quantitative field such as statistics, engineering, applied math, physics, quantitative social sciences, computer science, operations research.
• Excellent written and verbal communication skills
• Proficiency with SQL
• Working knowledge of advanced baseball statistics
• Experience with programming languages (e.g., C, Python or R)
• Experience or strong interest in using baseball data to support coaching or skill development

The Chicago Cubs are an Equal Opportunity Employer.

To Apply:
Please visit this site to apply.

Position: Major League Operations Intern

Location: Atlanta, GA

Description:
Support the Major League Operations group through the creation of tools for displaying and disseminating data, statistics, and other baseball-related information. The ideal candidate has a strong technical background and can work independently on self-contained projects, as well as an understanding of baseball research concepts and modern gameplay strategies.

Responsibilities:

• Develop tools and visualizations for disseminating statistical concepts.
• Conduct research projects for the Major League Operations group.
• Help build database and reporting infrastructure to support Major League advance report and coaching staff needs.
• Summarize project results in succinct, actionable format and present findings to the group.
• Opportunities for other ad-hoc contributions to the Major League advance scouting process.

Qualifications:

• Demonstrated track record as self-starter through independently-produced projects and/or writing (via online publication, etc.).
• Strong foundation in the application of statistical concepts to baseball data and the translation of data into actionable baseball recommendations.
• Required: Advanced-level capabilities in R and SQL.
• Preferred: Experience with at least one scripting language (e.g. Python, Ruby, Perl) and web development experience with Python Flask.
• Preferred: Demonstrable independent research (published or unpublished) using publicly available datasets (i.e. PITCHf/x, Statcast, etc).

Duration:
Early June through August, with potential opportunity for future full-time employment.

To Apply:
Please email relevant materials, research, and resume to bravesopsjobs@gmail.com.

Position: Software Engineer

Location: Detroit, MI

Job Description:
The Detroit Tigers are currently seeking a Software Engineer. This role will be responsible for development and maintenance of software projects within Baseball Operations. This position will report to the Sr. Software Engineer, Baseball Operations.

Key Responsibilities:

• Perform general development and maintenance tasks for the upkeep of internally developed software products.
• Use modern software techniques and best practices in all parts of the software life cycle.
• Provide feedback, and guide project work conducted by external consultants.
• Support the integration of baseball analysis into our proprietary tools and applications.
• Provide coverage for the maintenance of software tools for other developers as situations arise.
• Assist with the design and development of new software products.
• Monitor, identify and recommend new or emerging techniques, technologies, and algorithms.
• Other projects as directed the Baseball Operations leadership team.

Minimum Knowledge, Skills & Abilities:

• BS degree in Computer Science, Computer Information Systems, similar technical field of study or equivalent real-time experience.
• Demonstrated knowledge in developing in a Web-based object-oriented product environment.
• Demonstrated knowledge in working with medium-to-large scale relational databases.
• Ability to work in all phases of the product lifecycle, from requirements gathering to design, testing, and implementation.
• Demonstrated experience with UI/UX design.
• Ability to learn new technologies and techniques as necessary.
• Familiarity with the sport of baseball, baseball-specific data, modern statistical techniques, and sabermetric analysis.
• Demonstrated leadership and self-direction.
• Demonstrated project management, problem-solving, and teaching abilities.
• Demonstrated ability to communicate difficult and complex concepts to colleagues possessing a wide range of backgrounds and perspectives.

Preferred Knowledge, Skills & Abilities:

• Demonstrated knowledge of Java and JavaScript.
• Experience or knowledge in any of the following technologies are a plus:
• Spring applications
• Angular JS – Version 1.x
• Angular 2+
• React
• Demonstrated knowledge of .NET technologies.

Working Conditions:

• Office environment
• Occasional evening, weekend, and holiday hours may be required

To Apply:
Please apply here.

On Thursday, the Mariners announced that Ichiro Suzuki would transition to the role of Special Assistant to the Chairman, effective immediately. While the agreement covers only the 2018 season, it appears quite likely that we’ve seen the last of the wiry, slap-hitting international superstar in a playing role, even given his stated desire to play “at least until I’m 50.” At 44 years old, he was hitting a meager .205/.255/.205, and with outfielders Ben Gamel and Guillermo Heredia now both on the roster, his continued presence created a crunch whose resolution couldn’t even wait until this weekend’s series with the Angels, which might have included a possible encounter with the pitching version of Shohei Ohtani.

From the Mariners’ PR department:

“We want to make sure we capture all of the value that Ichiro brings to this team off the field,” [general manager Jerry] Dipoto said. “This new role is a way to accomplish that. While it will evolve over time, the key is that Ichiro’s presence in our clubhouse and with our players and staff improves our opportunity to win games. That is our number-one priority and Ichiro’s number-one priority.”

Ichiro will work in collaboration with the Mariners Major League Staff, High Performance Staff and Front Office personnel. He will assist, based on his experience, with outfield play, baserunning and hitting. And he will provide mentorship to both players and staff.

The plight of Ichiro wasn’t far from my mind as I wrote about Albert Pujols‘ crawl to 3,000 hits, and the struggles of other players when they made the push for that milestone. Back in 2013, when Ichiro was playing for the Yankees, I had the privilege of covering his 4,000th hit — his combined NPB and MLB total — for SI.com. At the time it was clear that his offensive skills had faded, and the celebration felt like a stand-in for that of an increasingly unlikely 3,000th major league hit. At 39 years old, he didn’t figure to collect the 278 he still needed. I even asked the question myself as to whether the more conventional milestone was in his sights. “I don’t make goals that are so far away,” he said through his translator. “What I do is do what I can every single day and build off that and see where that takes me.”

Lo and behold, Ichrio built off enough days to reach 3,000 while enjoying an unexpected renaissance with the Marlins in 2016. Even having not debuted stateside until he was 27 years old, he was the fourth-fastest player to 3,000 hits in terms of plate appearances, and sixth-fastest in terms of at-bats. As with the 4,000th combined hit and his long-awaited MLB pitching debut from October 4, 2015, the milestone 3,000th, a triple against the Rockies on August 7, 2016, brought a good bit of joy to the game. It also sealed the deal, once and for all, on his future enshrinement in the Hall of Fame. While his anachronistic slash-and-run style rarely produced the value to rival that of the era’s top sluggers, it was a vastly entertaining one nonetheless, and he staked his claim on a plaque via his initial decade-long run, during which he annually made the All-Star team, won a Gold Glove and cranked out at least 200 hits. He led the AL seven times in that category, setting a major league record with 262 hits in 2004 and claiming two batting titles as well as his AL Rookie of the Year/MVP combo in 2001. He will be eligible for the Hall of Fame in 2024 if he doesn’t return, although Seattle’s 2019 season-opening series in Japan offers a tempting possibility for a cameo.

Ichiro’s awe-inspiring total of 4,367 hits (1,278 in Japan, 3,089 here) will stand as the signature accomplishment for a player who has spent more than a quarter-century serving as a wonderful ambassador for the sport on two continents. Here’s hoping he can continue that ambassadorship in a non-playing capacity for years to come.

Position: Texas Rangers Baseball Systems Developer

Location: Arlington, Texas

Description:
The developer will be responsible for supporting, maintaining and expanding our baseball operations software systems. A knack for compelling visuals and design is preferred. The Rangers are looking for strong team players with outstanding people skills. Applicants who can provide code samples (any language, doesn’t have to be baseball related) will be given strong preference. Diverse applicants are encouraged to apply. Spanish fluency is a plus.

Responsibilities:

• Web development, design and testing.
• Database queries to support the application.
• Designing and maintaining reports.
• Application support for the front office, scouts and coaches.
• Update and maintain internal system documentation.

Qualifications:

• Passion for the game of baseball.
• 1-3 years professional experience in a similar capacity and/or degree in computer science preferred.
• Excellent written and verbal communication skills.
• Highly organized.
• Occasional evening, weekend and holiday availability. Support is provided 24/7/365 and is shared among the team.

Technology:

• Microsoft Visual Studio
• ASP.Net
• C#
• JavaScript/AJAX
• Microsoft SQL Server
• SQL Reporting Services (SSRS)

To Apply:
Please apply here.

The Dodgers aren’t in first place in their division. And it’s not just that they’re further out of first than the Rockies and Giants. They’re further out of first in the NL West than the White Sox are in the AL Central. The Dodgers have sputtered, and the Diamondbacks have been hot, and that’s created a meaningful separation. A seven-game difference on the last day of April is nothing to sneeze at.

But I don’t think there’s been all that much worry, not yet. This morning, by our math, the Dodgers were still favored to finish in first. Certain little things have changed, sure, but remember that last year, the Dodgers had a stretch in which they lost 16 of 17 games, and they still finished with the best record in baseball. They won the NL West by a mile. The Dodgers are one of those teams you give the benefit of the doubt. If the roster isn’t too terribly different, you should expect that the team will find its own level.

Well, the roster is going to look terribly different:

Today, the Dodgers recalled Breyvic Valera from Triple-A Oklahoma City and placed Corey Seager on the 10-day DL with a right UCL sprain. Seager will undergo Tommy John surgery and will miss the remainder of the season.

— Los Angeles Dodgers (@Dodgers) April 30, 2018

Corey Seager is done for 2018, having never fully recovered from the elbow problem that dogged him down the stretch. The team decided to try the rest-and-rehab plan, as opposed to sending Seager into surgery right away, but it didn’t work out. Justin Turner will be back sometime soon, sure. Yet Seager is among baseball’s very best shortstops. Enrique Hernandez is not. Breyvic Valera is not. Chris Taylor might now return to short for all I know, but that’s more shuffling than a solution. There’s no way to lose someone like Seager and not be a lot worse off for it. (Update: for now, looks like Taylor to short.)

Given how the Dodgers have always prioritized depth, I’m sure they’ll try to figure out a way to proceed via internal options. To his credit, Valera has seemingly learned how to hit, and maybe he can blossom out of nowhere. You don’t often see important trades this early anyway, so expect the Dodgers to stay as they are. But of course, one player looms, and that player would be Manny Machado. Machado is good, and the Orioles are bad. I don’t need to explain this to you. It’s not something that’ll happen tomorrow, but it’s something you’re likely to hear about more and more often as the season draws closer to June. Even if the Dodgers never engage in serious talks, writers are going to want them to, so the chatter will be there. It’s too obvious a link to leave alone.

Machado wouldn’t feel like a Dodgers-y move. Squeezing value out of Breyvic Valera or looking toward Alex Verdugo and/or Andrew Toles would feel like Dodgers-y moves. But then, these are special circumstances. The Dodgers are in a hole, and they’ve been substantially weakened. It’s going to be that much more difficult to make up lost ground.

I said something that was off base in my most recent FanGraphs chat, which probably happens every week. In this case, however, having done the research in the area that qualifies as my wheelhouse — the Hall of Fame beat — it’s worth setting the record straight.

With Ronald Acuña’s debut fresh in mind, reader BK asked me, “What is the highest probability you would give to a rookie of making the Hall of Fame? Over [or] under 5%?”

My response was, “It depends upon the rookie. An overall No. 1 prospect who’s reaching the majors for good at 20 years old and then succeeding, I might say 5-10%. That’s just off the top of my head; guys who can stick at that age are by far the best HOF prospects.”

Leaving aside the subjectivity that comes with labeling a player an “overall No. 1 prospect,” I should have remembered based upon my reading and research that any playing time in the majors at such a young age gives a player about a 5-10% chance at Cooperstown. Using the Baseball-Reference Play Index, here are the number of position players who had at least one season with a plate appearance at each age from 18 to 21 (using the June 30 cutoff convention) and the rates at which they reached the Hall of Fame:

In calculating the percentages, I’ve excluded active players — such as Adrian Beltre, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado, Jurickson Profar, Mike Trout and Justin Upton as 19 year olds — because of course they’re not yet eligible for the Hall.

Using a 100 PA cutoff to fulfill the “significant playing time” requirement, here’s the breakdown:

In both tables, players may be counted more than once; for example, Mel Ott is one of three Hall of Famers and 11 players who qualified at age 18, and one of 13 Hall of Famers and 59 players who did so at 19, et cetera. For the 20-year-olds, the list of 33 qualifiers who are enshrined includes Ott, Ty Cobb, Tris Speaker, Jimmie Foxx, Rogers Hornsby, Ted Williams, Willie Mays, Mickey Mantle, Hank Aaron, Roberto Clemente, Al Kaline, Frank Robinson, Brooks Robinson, Johnny Bench, Robin Yount, Rickey Henderson, and one from each of the last three Hall classes: Ken Griffey Jr. (2016), Ivan Rodriguez (2017) and Jim Thome (2018). That’s a lot of inner-circle guys, if you care to make that distinction.

For the qualifiers at age 20 who are still active, I present you with the whole list:

Based on the data above, we should expect three or four to wind up in Cooperstown, but I’d suggest taking the “over” on that count. Beltre, with his 3,075 hits, status as one of the game’s greatest defensive third basemen, and the No. 4 ranking in JAWS at the position, is a lock. Cabrera, with 2,662 hits, 464 homers, and the No. 11 JAWS ranking at first base — already above the standard — is pretty close to a lock as well, as is Trout, who already ranks ninth among center fielders in JAWS and fifth in seven-year peak despite having played just six full season and change. Past MVP winners Harper and Stanton are probably the next two players, odds-wise, but they’ve got much more work to do than Trout. And note the presence of Acuña’s teammate, Ozzie Albies. Check back in 25 to 30 years and see which of these guys panned out.