Pre-Trade Deadline Top 100 Prospects Update

With the most recent list cycle completed and the draft concluded, I’ve updated the Top 100 Prospects list, which you can now find over on The Board. I’ll have a couple of posts detailing the player movement up shortly, starting with the pitchers. Remember that you can see whose FV grade has changed with this update in the “Trend” column. There are several cases where a player’s ordinal ranking shifted a bit but their FV grade (which is the more important thing) did not, and thus they have no trend arrow.
In addition to the handful who made the Top 100, recent draft picks have been added to the team-by-team prospect lists. Graduating rookies have been pulled off the Updated 2024 Report and can be found on the 2024 Graduates tab. The pre-draft/pre-graduation 2024 Report can be found here.
I’ll be moving prospects from one org list to another as they get traded during the next couple of days. As you can see, I’ve already done that for Miami and Tampa Bay, who both made deals yesterday. (Our analysis of the Randy Arozarena trade that sent Brody Hopkins and Aidan Smith to the Rays can be found here.)
The Farm System Rankings will also change in real time as deals get done. You can already compare the pre-draft/pre-graduation Farm Rankings to what they look now. I’ll write an article detailing the movement in that space after the trade deadline.
Eric Longenhagen is from Catasauqua, PA and currently lives in Tempe, AZ. He spent four years working for the Phillies Triple-A affiliate, two with Baseball Info Solutions and two contributing to prospect coverage at ESPN.com. Previous work can also be found at Sports On Earth, CrashburnAlley and Prospect Insider.
Appreciate the update!
Do you know why the trend arrows aren’t showing for some players? Agustin Ramirez for instance was a 40+ prospect on the Yankees team list. It looks like you bumped him up to a 45+, but there is no arrow indication on the trend cell for him.
I think Nacho Alvarez got bumped to a 50 too and there’s no arrow.
There’s some weird stuff going on, like Cooper Pratt is listed as 76 on the top 100 but his FV is still 40+. I think some stuff might have not been copied over.
The trend arrows have always been a bit arbitrary IMO. Matt Shaw is posting a solid 136 wrc+ and got an arrow down.
Yeah but that’s because he fell a FV tier.
Given that this is projecting way into the future, going up or down a half grade for anyone barely seems “trend”-worthy.
Future $ is tied to that FV projection. It’s important imo. Holliday going from a 70 to a 65cis absolutely massive from a prospect valuation standpoint.
I’m not talking about that, I’m talking about clerical errors.
Good call. I see Carson Williams jumped a tier to 60 FV and there’s no arrow for him either. Maybe they’re still working out the kinks.
I think Drake Baldwin was also bumped up without an arrow. Maybe guys that are new to the list don’t get arrows?
I don’t think the new farm system rankings are live yet…hopefully soon?
Can’t wait to find out how Marcelo Mayer managed to go from a 50 to a 60 just since the Sox list was published!
Thrilled to see the hype train for Sproat outside of Queens!!
So excited about him this might be a hot take but I think he has higher upside than Scott has.
Phillies rankings seem to be more of a preseason ranking, IMO. Crawford as number 7 prospect, for example, does not seem to reflect consensus. Maybe Eric just doesn’t like Crawford or Klassen, another guy who is a riser.
I think you’re right about the ranking mostly being a preseason ranking–the update only affects top 100 prospects, former top 100 prospects (maybe?), graduates, and new draft picks. The number 7 prospect on an individual team’s list probably hasn’t gotten re-ranked even if Eric would re-rank him if he were doing the lists again today.
I don’t know. Welbyn Francisco was Cleveland’s #8 prospect at the beginning of the year. He’s now been moved from a 45 to 50 grade.
Well yeah, that means he’s a top 100 prospect now which would make sense that he has been reranked.
Klassen as the headliner for the Carlos Alvarez trade… Yeah, he wasn’t the 27th ranked Phils prospect anymore.
Holliday fielding downgraded from 40/60 to 40/45, eh?
I am surprised to see Kevin McGonigle stay a 45. Likewise for Ty Madden, although for opposite reasons.
EL don’t know if you read comments but Pirates fans wonder where Carlson Reed fits
As of list publication one month ago, Eric had him off the main list seemingly due to velocity issues.
Huh, he’s a bit up and down but sitting 91-94 and hitting 96 from what I’ve read.
Mitchell Parker should be a graduate as he’s at 95 innings. Also, I noticed in some systems the draft picks are slotted in and given a ranking (ie, Montgomery #5 for Boston) while for others they aren’t slotted in (ie, Seaver King and the other top 4 Nats picks).
Curious to know where Kurtz would be ranked had he been drafted by anyone other than the A’s…
… the same?
This is among the worst grievances any fan has had against a writer. It’s both factually wrong (he assigned the grade before the draft) and the only person who would defend the A’s is someone being held hostage. Blink three times and we’ll be there with a rescue team.
It’s not easy being an Oakland fan, man. Just a non-stop barrage of shit from all angles.
And just a year after seven members of the 2023 Draft immediately got ranked inside the Top 75, while Jacob Wilson went unranked… and then hit over .400 for a calendar year in the minors.
[sigh]
I was an Oakland fan and enjoyed it thoroughly.
Yeah, and after that Wilson was ranked as the A’s best non pitching prospect and 38th overall prospect. So I’m not exactly sure what your grievance even is.
Its not like he was given a 30 grade after the draft or something. He was a 45+ when he was drafted. He hit well in the minors so he was bumped up to 50 and rose in the ranks accordingly. That’s how it works.
EDIT: he was also featured in the “100 other prospects to know” write up by Eric. So its not like he was totally ignored before
Quinn Mathews has really shot up from his org list ranking. I’m not surprised given his dominance in A and A+ and am glad he is in AA now getting challenged more. I really like Mathews and think he has to be one of the biggest 2023 draft risers. But I am curious how he will do in AA and if he ends up looking like Graceffo did for the Cards. Graceffo dominated lower levels and struggled more at the higher levels, although that shoulder injury seemed to sap him of the extra velo that really helped him.
What is an uphill fastball? I noticed about a dozen guys like Gasser, Meyer, and Hence have it. Is it just significant rise even more than a rising fastball?
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-visual-scouting-primer-pitching-part-two/
Here’s an explanation for that
Looking forward to the hitter article because I am confused about Shaw downgrading if none of his component grades nor his position changed. The complete list of 50+ hit, 60+ power, 60+ speed guys is Holliday, Crews, and Shaw.
I really don’t understand how Chandler Simpson isn’t on this list. You want him to bat .450 in the upper minors instead of .350? Steal 200 bags instead of 150? CF that’s gonna 90 wRC+ and go 80/100 SB for the next 5 years in TB sounds like the extreme low end, and that’s worth 12-15 fWAR in that time. There’s no damn way there’s 100 players more likely to be succesful than this guy.
So average offense and slightly below average defense without much upside? Sounds like Vince Coleman
You need to look up Coleman again homie. That guy couldn’t hit for shit. Juan Pierre is looking like Simpson’s floor, and Brett Butler/KennyLofton is like his ceiling. He led D1 in OBP in college, and has done the same through the upper levels of the minors.
Xavier Isaac being top 10 2 years after everyone ragged on the Rays for drafting him like 28th overall is hilarious. Well done Rays.
I mean, he was a high school 1st baseman. People were rightly justified in questioning the decision to draft a HS 1st baseman with the 29th pick. And they still might wind up being right as he has yet to play above A ball.
Torkelson crushed A ball too. There is a saying about counting chickens thats pretty apt here.
I’d be very surprised if Isaac didn’t have a better career than Torkelson at this point.
Thats a hell of a thing to say about a guy who hasnt even reached AA yet. Especially considering Tork is only 24. Its entirely possible that he figures things out and has a long career.
Which player would you prefer? The 60 FV prospect worth -0.4 WAR in 1300 MLB plate appearances or the 60 FV prospect who has yet to make any MLB plate appearances? What I said is not going out on a limb, at all.