Projecting Red Sox Call-Up Yoan Moncada

Yoan Moncada has absolutely beasted in the minors this year. In 61 High-A games, he hit .307/.427/.496. In 44 Double-A games, he slashed .285/.388/.547. Not to mention his 45 stolen bases. Moncada in an excellent prospect. Very few players can hit like he does while also providing value in the field and on the bases. That’s why he was a fixture at the top of mid-season prospect lists this summer. Baseball America ranked him No. 1 overall,  while Baseball Prospectus and Keith Law both put him in the top five.

But for all his strengths, Moncada has some weaknesses that we shouldn’t overlook. Most notably, he strikes out a bunch. Moncada’s struck out in over 25% of his trips to the plate this year, including a 31% clip since he was promoted to Double-A. Though it’s somewhat hidden by Moncada’s high batting averages, Moncada has had a lot of trouble making contact against Double-A pitchers. This suggests he’ll have even more trouble doing so in Boston.

There’s also the matter of Moncada’s defense. He’s primarily played second base since emigrating from Cuba, and the prognosis for low-minors second basemen isn’t great. The fact that he’s already been deemed “not a shortstop” is a knock against him in KATOH’s eyes. Furthermore, his defensive metrics at second base aren’t great. He’s been six runs below average this year by Clay Davenport’s fielding data, which suggests he may not be long for the infield.

As a result, KATOH’s very low on Moncada. Though Moncada is the consensus top prospect in baseball, my math ranked him No. 22 at mid-season. KATOH+, which takes into account Moncada’s Baseball America ranking, placed him No. 5. Incorporating Moncada’s full-season 2016 numbers, my system projects him for 6.8 WAR over his first six seasons by the traditional method and 14.3 WAR by the method that integrates Baseball America’s rankings. To help you visualize what his KATOH projection entails, here is a probability density function showing KATOH+’s projected distribution of outcomes for Moncada’s first six seasons in the major leagues.

Moncada

To put some faces to Moncada’s statistical profile, let’s generate some statistical comps for the toolsy Cuban infielder. I calculated a weighted Mahalanobis distance between Moncada’s performance this year and every High-A and Double-A since 1991 in which a second baseman or third baseman recorded at least 400 plate appearances. In the table below, you’ll find the 10 most similar seasons, ranked from most to least similar. The WAR totals refer to each player’s first six seasons in the major leagues. A lower “Mah Dist” reading indicates a closer comp.

Please note that the Mahalanobis analysis is separate from KATOH. KATOH relies on macro-level trends, rather than comps. The fates of a few statistically similar players shouldn’t be used to draw sweeping conclusions about a prospect’s future. For this reason, I recommend using a player’s KATOH forecast to assess his future potential. The comps give us some interesting names that sometimes feel spot-on, but they’re mostly just there for fun.

Yoan Moncada’s Mahalanobis Comps
Rank Name Mah Dist KATOH+ Proj. WAR Actual WAR
1 Carlos Febles 1.04 10.4 2.0
2 David Wright 1.59 9.1 36.8
3 Michael Cuddyer 1.67 10.1 7.8
4 Andy Marte 2.07 13.0 0.3
5 Brendan Harris 2.37 7.7 3.4
6 Aubrey Huff 2.44 7.3 11.0
7 Marcus Giles 2.72 10.0 17.8
8 Joe Crede 2.80 11.8 9.9
9 Todd Walker 2.84 11.1 4.6
10 Edwin Encarnacion 3.28 7.7 7.4

Moncada is undoubtedly a very promising prospect. Though KATOH is the low man on the Cuban emigree, it still sees him as one of the top prospects on the planet. It’s also worth pointing out that KATOH doesn’t know that Moncada sat out an entire season in 2014, so it might be unfairly penalizing him for his age.

Odds are, Moncada has a very bright future ahead of him, but whether he’ll be able to help Boston right now is less clear. As noted above, Moncada had a lot of trouble making contact against Double-A pitching, and it’s unlikely he’ll have any less trouble in the big leagues. For what it’s worth, Steamer projects him for .246/.314/.374 (80 wRC+) from here on out, which would perhaps be useful to the Sox, but not terribly so. Given Moncada’s outstanding tools, however, don’t be surprised if he blows past those numbers this September.





Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.

4 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
Josh-
7 years ago

Not only is Carlos Febles the #1 Mahalanobis distance comp, but he was also Moncada’s AA manager in Portland. Cool!

OddBall Herrera
7 years ago
Reply to  Josh-

The circle is now complete