Projecting the Prospects Traded on August 31

Since players acquired on or after September 1 are not eligible for their new team’s playoff roster, we saw a small flurry of trades come down the pike last night. The Cubs traded for Austin Jackson, the Royals landed Jonny Gomes, the Giants swung a deal for Alejandro De Aza and the Dodgers acquired Justin Ruggiano and Chris Heisey in separate deals. The Jackson, Ruggiano and Heisey deals all involve the infamous player to be named later, meaning we don’t yet know who’s headed in the other direction. However, the Gomes and De Aza deals both included players who will join their new organizations immediately. Here’s a glimpse at what we might expect from these two players down the road. (Note: WAR figures, unless otherwise specified, indicate total WAR through age-28 season.)

Luis Valenzuela, Atlanta Braves, 5.3 WAR

The Royals sent 22-year-old infielder Luis Valenzuela to Atlanta in the Jonny Gomes deal. After hitting a weak .234/.289/.338 in Rookie-level ball from 2012 to 2014, it appears as though something may have clicked for Valenzuela this year. In 56 games, with all but eight of them coming in Low-A, Valenzuela’s hit .358/.380/.495. His lofty .404 BABIP surely explains much of this success, but his combination of contact (14% strikeout rate), power (.137 ISO) and speed (nine steals in 11 attempts) makes him mildly interesting.

KATOH really likes what Valenzuela’s done this year, and as a result, projects him for 5.3 WAR through age 28, which would have put him 54th on KATOH’s list. (At the time, he did not hit my admittedly arbitrary 200-plate-appearance threshold). Despite the optimism, though, my system gives him just a 56% chance of making the majors, suggesting that there’s a very strong chance he flames out completely. In sum, Valenzuela’s done some impressive things this year, but the onus will be on him next year to prove it’s not a fluke. Here are his top Mahalanobis comps, which include notable middle infielders Ronnie Belliard and Scooter Gennett.

Luis Valenzuela Statistical Comps
Rank Mah Dist Name PA thru 28 WAR thru 28
1 0.67 Ryan Long 10 0.0
2 0.70 Joe Mathis 0 0.0
3 0.82 Jason Camilli 0 0.0
4 0.85 Tim Smith 0 0.0
5 0.97 Yung-Chi Chen 0 0.0
6 0.97 Ron Acuna 0 0.0
7 1.06 Yahmed Yema 0 0.0
8 1.07 Alejandro Giron 0 0.0
9 1.08 Ronnie Belliard 2,435 5.4
10 1.12 Justin Bloxom* 0 0.0
11 1.23 Scooter Gennett* 999 4.0
12 1.28 Rafael Guerrero 0 0.0
13 1.32 Mike Murphy 0 0.0
14 1.34 Chase Mulvehill 0 0.0
15 1.36 Casey Haerther* 0 0.0
16 1.37 Teuris Olivares 0 0.0
17 1.42 Mark Quinn 1,166 2.3
18 1.44 Danny Bautista 1,417 1.6
19 1.52 Ronald Garth 0 0.0
20 1.54 Wilkin Castillo 37 0.0
*Hitters who have yet to play their age-28 seasons

*****

Luis Ysla, Boston Red Sox, 0.4 WAR

In exchange for De Aza, the Giants sent hard-throwing lefty Luis Ysla to Boston. Ysla spent all of 2015 pitching at the High-A level, where he’s split time between the rotation and the bullpen. On the surface, Ysla’s 2015 numbers look pretty poor: 6.21 ERA and 4.52 FIP. But it’s worth noting that he’s performed noticeably better out of the bullpen than as a starter (4.50 ERA vs. 8.81 ERA). Furthermore, since a pitcher’s strikeout rate is the most predictive metric for pitchers in the low minors, Ysla’s 25% strikeout rate (27% as a reliever) makes him somewhat intriguing. However, as a 23-year-old who’s yet to master A-ball, Ysla is extremely fringy.

KATOH pegs Ysla for 0.4 WAR through age 28, with just a 19% chance of even making it to the big leagues. His 2014 numbers from Low-A yielded a similar forecast of 0.8 WAR. His Mahalanobis comps also leave a lot to be desired. Basically, its Brandon Medders, a future backup NFL quarterback and very little else.

Luis Ysla Statistical Comps
Rank Mah Dist Name IP thru 28 WAR thru 28
1 2.18 Robbie Crabtree 0 0
2 2.63 Jean Machi 0 0
3 3.23 Fraser Dizard 0 0
4 3.35 Juan Lara 6 0
5 3.42 Erik Plantenberg 42 0
6 3.52 Dave Wolensky 0 0
7 3.57 Brandon Medders 151 0.4
8 3.75 Dave Bird 0 0
9 3.78 Mario Alvarez 0 0
10 3.89 Scott Freeman 0 0
11 4.24 Jose Rosario* 0 0
12 4.29 Korey Keling 0 0
13 4.33 Brian Lockwood 0 0
14 4.38 Kevin Logsdon 0 0
15 4.41 Alvie Shepherd 0 0
16 4.43 Jeremy Blevins 0 0
17 4.45 Brandon Weeden 0 0
18 4.52 Craig Italiano* 0 0
19 4.63 Dave Nolasco 0 0
20 4.64 Garvin Alston 6 0
*Pitchers who have yet to play their age-28 seasons





Chris works in economic development by day, but spends most of his nights thinking about baseball. He writes for Pinstripe Pundits, FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. He's also on the twitter machine: @_chris_mitchell None of the views expressed in his articles reflect those of his daytime employer.

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John Elway
8 years ago

So Brandon Weeden played minor league baseball too? That makes exactly two things we have in common.

Just neighing.