Royals Get Slightly More Interesting
Billy Hamilton does several things really well. Since the start of the 2014 season, Hamilton has stolen 264 bases, which is the most in baseball. During that time, he’s been worth 51 runs above average on the bases, which is also the best in baseball by a considerable margin. He’s been worth 55 runs above average on defense, which is sixth in the entire sport. Unfortunately, he’s also been a terrible hitter, with an anemic .244/.297/.332 line over the last five seasons. Of the 164 players with at least 2000 plate appearances over that span, Hamilton’s 69 wRC+ comes in dead last. The Reds no longer wished to deal with a player who, despite doing several things really well, is generally below average, particularly as Hamilton’s salary was set to rise in arbitration, so they did not tender him a contract. Hamilton has found a new home in Kansas City.
According to Buster Olney, the Royals and the speedy center fielder have agreed to a deal that will pay Hamilton $5.25 million, plus an additional one million dollars in potential incentives. MLB Trade Rumors projected Hamilton would receive $5.9 million in arbitration, so this deal falls a little short of that estimate.
For the Reds, the move opens up some options in a crowded part of their roster. With a full infield of Joey Votto, Scooter Gennett, the surprising Jose Peraza, and Eugenio Suarez, the team didn’t have room for top prospect Nick Senzel. The third base prospect was tried out in the middle infield last season, but he seems likely to take on a new project in center field next year.
Given the terms of Hamilton’s deal with Kansas City, there wasn’t likely a robust trade market for him. In Kansas City, he should get the opportunity to show off his great defensive skills and base running for a team not likely to win a lot of games next year. The Royals still seem to be committed to Brett Phillips, part of the return for Mike Moustakas last season in a deadline deal with the Brewers. That means that Phillips will likely move to right field, and with Alex Gordon in left field, the team should have very good outfield defense, though perhaps not quite on the level of the Boston Red Sox.
Despite his flaws, Billy Hamilton is one of the more exciting players in baseball, and it is good for the sport that he appears to have found a full-time home for next season.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
Considering that the Reds have refused several times to trade Hamilton (reportedly because the owner loves him) including last trade deadline, it’s remarkable that they would just non-tender him. It’s a good sign of a dysfunctional organization: Refusing to trade someone for anything less than a major haul, and then non-tendering/DFA’ing him a few months later. What happened to change your mind so fast?
From the Royals perspective: Well, it makes more sense than Chris Owings.
As a loooong time Royals fan…as soon as Cincy cut Hamilton loose, this was a move I wanted them to make. Beef up that defense for any young pitchers. Also…the combo of Hamilton, Merrifield, Mondesi should be fun on the bases. We need some entertainment in another down year….
As for Owings…I didn’t mind that move (after an initial reaction of WTF). We don’t need to bring Esky back as a utility guy. Owings can do that. They are just looking for a guy to give guys a break here and there. It’s not like the team is contending this year. And I don’t expect Owings to hit .202 again…he’s not good, but he’s better at the plate than that. But…the main thing – he can play pretty much anywhere on the field, and that’s what he’s here for.
I bet every team except CIN would be excited to have him.
As of now between 3 players the Royals conservatively project for 111 stolen bases.
Those three players are also projected for OBPs of .297, .329, and .292. Amazingly, two of those three players are actually good! (And the third is profiled in this article)
Billy Hamilton is a fantastic fourth outfielder, pinch runner / defensive replacement.
No way Merrifield has a .329 OBP…dude is still underrated as hell.
Rule change: Batter is allowed to steal first on any count.
and a whole lot more unproductive outs….
Do the Royals have an internal rule that they must have at least one of the 5 worst hitters in MLB on the team at all times?
Yes, but that was Chris Owings. This guy is to meet the good-defense-guy-who-can’t-get-on-base quota.
Chris Owings? Really?
Alcides Escobar sheds a single tear
Yeah, Escobar checked both boxes. In this we-hope-made-up-world where the Royals have these quotas, Escobar made a lot of sense.
Problem with Hamilton is that he has really nothing to improve realistically
-His plate discipline is solid (sub 30% career o swing)
-his launch angle and direction profile is about average (I.e no swing change candidate)
-his EV is so low that even 10 pounds and 2-3 mph more wouldn’t do much to his production, he would need to increase a lot which is unrealistic.
– and worst: unlike other zero power guys he doesn’t even have plus contact ability. He isn’t a K machine but about average Ks is too much if you have zero pop. Des Gordon has zero pop but at least plus contact skill.
So the worst thing is that Billy does a lot right, there is not one obvious thing, the skill is just not there.
I agree with most of what you said above, but for me there are two concerning factors that he has to address:
1) His k-rate has climbed three straight years. There has to be some changes he can make to get this lower. Even if it means generating weaker contact on average, he can’t be sitting north of 20% K’s.
2) Why has his BABIP never exceeded .330? Hamilton has again had 3 straight years of increasing rate of IFFBs. Comparing to Dee Gordon (as you did) or even Ichiro, and you see a much lower number of GBs for Hamilton.
Really feels like this two dimensions are the major ones he needs to fix. Given his atypical profile I don’t think he should be aiming for “average” in terms of many metrics you cite (i.e. average launch angle, average Ks).
More grounders might help a little but in 2017 his grounder rate was up to 46% and it didn’t help much. Then this year grounder rate plummeted again.
His biggest issue is the Ks with very low exit velo which means the defense can play in to avoid the infield single without having to fear grounders going through.
He would need to increase his EV by 4-5 mph to have more grounders going through which probably is unrealistic or improve his K rate a lot.
Not easy to do, maybe focusing on one side of the plate would help.
How much of the underlining numbers are influenced by maintaining two swings as a switch hitter? At the very least if you drop the right handed swing, at least all the reps can be taken from the left side.
I agree with this, drop the righty swing
Drop the R swing – and thus take all your cuts from the LH side of the box [And probably never start him against a lefty] – and thus shave a fraction of a second off your time to first – and thus improve in one area where he can: IFH%.
Byron Buxton and Starling Marte are in the 13-14.5% range. Hamilton is closer to 11%. Feels like that could nudge higher. Every little bit helps. {Also: Kris Bryant? Would not have pegged him as the 2nd best IFH guy in baseball recently}
Also Bunt Hits. 46 the last 5 years is not bad … but Dee Gordon has almost 50% more. Again, this might be only a hit per month – but take it, Billy!
Also: GB%. Stop hitting the ball in the air. You have no power. Get that GB% up and your IFFB% should fall with it (17% last year is egregious).
Maybe all this moves his OBP from .299 to .315 if things break just right. But it counts. All that plus batting him 9th, and you’ve got something (even more) interesting.
Good point. That is an easy adjustment. If you can’t hit from one side, then two ain’t going to help.
He should not be trying to be average – that is entirely his problem. There is no reason his LA should be similar to other players. His problem offensively is that he doesn’t do his own thing. If BHam ever becomes something, then he will turn into a slappy hitter. That is a possible adjustment, but I wouldn’t bet on it.
Seems like it makes more sense to move Scooter to the outfield (as he expressed a willingness to do this summer) rather than tinker around with your best prospect.
especially it seems like he’s unlikely to be re-signed after this year
Outfielders hit grand slams!
I think we all know that Ned Yost is going to bat him leadoff all season.
With Chris Owings in the 2-hole.
I still enjoy the idea of Hamilton as a super-sub. Your hulking behemoth of a slugger walks/whacks a single late in the game? Sub him for good ol’ Billy and manufacture that run you need using his prodigious base-running ability!
Who cares about OBP if he gets on-base a guaranteed once per game?
As an Indians fan, please don’t listen to this KC. Please bat him leadoff.
He would end up starting 80 games as a sub if done right. Find a way to start him once a week (Sunday or whatever) and he fills in for everyone who ever needs a day off or is injured. When he doesn’t start, look to use him off the bench – it all sounds like a great idea to me.
Thus dies the “sit Hamilton for a high OBP guy once through the order and then replace later on” theory in that really cool article on Hamilton from last year. Royals will love him in the leadoff slot.
The real question is what do you want the Royals to do, really? They aren’t contending this year. Owings and Hamilton aren’t blocking anyone. Royals are in a fact finding season for some guys on the big league roster (what kinds of players, exactly, are guys like Mondesi, Soler, Bonifacio, Keller, O’Hearn, and so on) and waiting for prospects to develop in the next year or so. If they had gone out and got an all-star CF, there would be no point in that either. It’s a cheap one-year move. And the outfield defense just got way better…which is especially good for any young pitchers they will trot out there this year.
And perhaps some playoff team will give a decent prospect for him with eyes on using him the way some in this thread envision: defensive replacement and pinch-runner.
There has to be a guy out there, somewhere, who has some untapped upside. Owings is not that guy. Hamilton might be that guy, so that move is better, but probably he doesn’t have any more untapped upside. It’s honestly better to just go fishing in the Rule 5 draft than bother with these guys. And it’s definitely better to give as many reps as you can to Nicky Lopez, Soler, Bonifacio, Goodwin, O’Hearn, and Phillips (Cuthbert and Dozier might be busted, but they still would be worth it). What’s the point in signing a guy who is not likely to be any better than the guys you (a) already have, (b) who are cheaper and (c) have the potential to be something more?
They have said they won’t call up Lopez until he’s starting. He will be in AAA (though I think move Whit to third and plug in Lopez at second and let’s see what he can do).
O’Hearn/Bonifacio/Soler aren’t going to lose reps to Owings. I’m guessing Phillips stands to lose the most playing time to Hamilton. I expect the Royals to rotate a couple guys at DH as well (Soler being one of them, Bonifacio maybe being another) so the outfielders (minus maybe Phillips) should get a lot of AB’s. I think Phillips could be the loser here. Cuthbert and Dozier….meh. They can split time at third, I suppose. I don’t believe in either guy and don’t think the org does either.
in addition to my last reply – if you don’t see the upside in Hamilton’s defense/baserunning vs a Rule 5 guy, I think that’s nuts. On defense alone, in a large outfield, he already makes the young pitchers they will use just a little better…one less thing for young guys to worry about if a guy sends a flare/liner out to CF. The outfield D will be lights out with Gordon/Hamilton and when Phillips plays RF even better.
Really? How much better do you think Hamilton can get? Dominikk85 runs through everything up there. He’s probably not getting any better on offense. He’s not getting any better on defense or baserunning–he’s maxed out there. And even if it does work out, he’s gone the next year (or you overpay for him to stay). Whereas with a Rule 5 guy you have a shot for another Brad Keller who might actually be part of the next good team (okay, Brad Keller is a pretty rare get, but maybe even a role player).
Where did I say I expect him to get better? When he’s in the game the defense gets better. I’m guessing he will play a lot. Maybe platoon. He’s here to likely bat 9 and play top shelf defense. They aren’t contending. It’s a one year deal. My point is why would people want to just come crap all over it. I stated my reasons why I don’t mind the deal. You think he will be playing CF when they are hoping their next wave is here in 2021?
If he gets better at the plate great. If not platoon him and use him as a pinch runner and defensive wizard.
Because they already have two guys who bat lefty, play his position, and who need big league reps, and frankly have a chance to be much better than the guy they signed. Why waste money and also possible development time for your guys? This isn’t like Alex Gordon who is a beloved link to the glory days (and who they’re stuck with whether they like it or not).
If the Royals had 2 guys who play his position they wouldn’t have signed hamilton. Goodwin hasnt looked all that amazing defensively so him being an everyday CF is pretty sketchy at best. Hamilton is unquestionably better in CF than Goodwin (and pretty much everyone else). Goodwin is better off in a corner. He is also 28 so i dont think he is really part of the Royals future plans RE: development time.
And Phillips did not look anywhere near ready for MLB in his brief stint last year (41% K rate, 49 wRC+) and as a 24 year old 45 FV prospect his potential is probably pretty limited.
And its not like the Royals are playing for anything next year. Its not hard to shuffle the OF around to get guys playing time if they feel they need it. Signing Hamilton for a year is a pretty justifiable move.
Hamilton probably brings back something slightly better than a Rule 5 pick in July, if they go that route.
I don’t understand why they won’t consider moving Merrifield, though. He’d be a very attractive target, especially once Marwin is off the market, and he might fade out just as quickly as he shed the AAAA lifer path he appeared destined for.
I looked up BIlly Burns to make sure the Royals haven’t cut him yet, and they haven’t.
He’ll always have 2015 <3
He became a minor league free agent this offseason but I understand the sentiment.
I was hoping he would go to a contender. There isn’t a team in baseball that can’t use an elite CF and a legendary base runner. Maybe he comes off the bench on most days, but he can help every team. I guess it illustrates how much defense and base-running is valued by the decision makers. A great CF makes trash corner OF a lot more palatable. I also think that there may be some hope for him offensively – a new team can’t make anything any worse, right?
“There isn’t a team in baseball that can’t use an elite CF and a legendary base runner.”
There are plenty of teams who could use better than him, given his overall performance. There’s a reason Hamilton was cut – his aggregate contribution wasn’t that great, especially for his cost.
But he’s not going to sign as a backup and forego an opportunity to start for a bad team.
One thing that could help him might be being more aggressive on the first pitch. All his career he was primed to be patient to get on base and his career 7% walk rate is very respectable for a zero power guy and he also has a good eye (28.7% career o swing which is lower than miggy and kris bryant) but pitchers are simply not respecting him and grooving fastballs down the pipe so the walk upside is limited despite him being disciplined.
With the first pitch swinging he would get an extra swing to avoid the K since his contact ability isn’t great and if pitchers re adjust he has a good eye so he can react.
I get that people want him to walk but maybe if he hits earlier in the count he can lower his Ks.
I’d rather have him at 5% walks and 15% Ks rather than 8 and 23 like he was in 2018.
I’ve been considering him for the past few years as this generation’s Vince Coleman with better defense.
As exciting for a fan as that may be to see flying around, it’s hardly worth going out of one’s way for if one is running a team.