Team Entropy 2018: It’s Alright Ma, It’s Only Seeding
This is the sixth installment of this year’s Team Entropy series, my recurring look not only at the races for the remaining playoff spots but the potential for end-of-season chaos in the form of down-to-the-wire suspense and even tiebreakers. Ideally, we want more ties than the men’s department at Macy’s. If you’re new to this, please read the introduction here.
We’re not quite to the promised land of Game 163 tiebreakers, but for the 14th time in 15 seasons, we’ve got playoff spots to be decided on the final day of the regular season, though the identities of all the participants are sewn up. Thanks to Saturday’s combination of outcomes, with the the Brewers gaining a game on the Cubs in the NL Central and the Dodgers doing the same to the Rockies in the NL West, the aforementioned divisions are tied, with the Central teams 94-67 and the West teams 90-71. The Cardinals, who had remained alive in the race for the second Wild Card spot, were eliminated from the picture despite beating the Cubs, because the Dodgers piled up a bunch of runs late to beat the Giants. We of Team Entropy thank them for their service, and look to the possibility of the first set of multiple tiebreaker games in MLB history.
It comes down to this:
• If the Brewers (who host the Tigers) and the Cubs (who host the Cardinals) match results — both winning or both losing — the two teams will square off in Chicago (which won the season series 11-8) on Monday for a Game 163 tiebreaker. The winner of that game wins the NL Central and thus claims the top seed in the Senior Circuit, while the loser hosts the Wild Card game on Tuesday.
• If the Rockies (who host the Nationals) and the Dodgers (who play the Giants in San Francisco) match results — again, both winning or both losing — the two teams will meet in Los Angeles (which won the season series 12-7) on Monday for a Game 163 tiebreaker as well. The victor wins the NL West and faces the Braves (also 90-71) in the Division Series, while the loser will be the road team in the Wild Card game. The seeding regarding the division winner and the Braves is at also stake, but both NL West teams have the tiebreaker on Atlanta by dint of winning their season series 5-2.
If either of these scenarios comes to fruition, we’ll have the first tiebreaker game in MLB since 2013, when the Rays beat the Rangers to become the second AL Wild Card team, and if both happen, again, history! All of Sunday’s relevant games — in fact, the entire slate of 15 games — are set to begin at 3:05 pm Eastern, so that no team has an advantage in scoreboard watching.
If you’re wondering about pitching matchups, here’s what’s going down. In Milwaukee, the Brewers are starting August 31 acquisition Gio Gonzalez, with the Tigers countering with rookie Spencer Turnbull. In Chicago, the Cubs are starting Mike Montgomery while the Cardinals are going with Jack Flaherty, who has earned Rookie of the Year consideration (but isn’t likely to beat out Juan Soto or Ronald Acuña). In Denver, the Rockies are going with Tyler Anderson, while the Nationals have opted not to pitch Cy Young candidate Max Scherzer, instead tabbing the much less imposing Erick Fedde. In San Francisco, the Dodgers have decided to save hotshot rookie Walker Buehler for a potential tiebreaker or Wild Card game and instead go with Dick Mountain, er, Rich Hill to counter the Giants’ Andrew Suárez.
Charge up those devices and pile up those screens, because you’ll need multiple ones to follow along!
Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.
Jay, since you’re evidently a big Dylan fan, you should check out “Catfish” (an outtake from Desire) if you’ve never heard it.
“He used to work on Mr. Finley’s farm. But the old man wouldn’t pay…”
Definitely hoping for a game 163 in the NL Central. Not only would it have exciting playoff implications, but it could make or break Yelich’s sudden triple-crown campaign by giving him an extra game to catch Baez in RBI and surpass Carpenter in HRs (though of course the complication for Yelich is that a game 163 would give Baez another game as well).
well at 5pm et it sure looks like we’re looking at 2 game 163’s. 14-0, 7-0, 8-2, and 4-0
Team Ties is crushing it today.
Team Ties, sponsored by Macy’s.
So, the playoff team with the worst overall record in the weakest division gets a bye… got it!
Them’s the rules. Also, they played a big part in making that division look weak by beating the snot out of the other four teams.
I’ll go ahead and say that someone had to win that division. I am not so convinced of the Braves dominance. I believe that I heard some stat regarding historic domination within their own division, which was called the NL Weak prior to the one contender (Nats) failing to show up this year. That division is plenty weak on its own. I get that the Braves are everyone’s new favorite team and all.
That argument simply doesn’t add up, because the NL East collectively (including the Braves) has a record of 392 – 417, meaning that division was well under .500 in games played against teams outside the division. The NL Central collectively was well over .500 (428-383), and the NL West was just under . 500 (403-407). By definition intra-divisional games have to add up to .500 in these totals, so this captures relative game results against teams outside of the division. (The total is slightly over .500 because the NL was over .500 in interleague play this year, for the first time since 2003).
For weakest division across both leagues, however, the strongest case is for the AL Central based on its collective record of 353 – 457. If I’m doing the arithmetic correctly, those five teams combined were a horrific 163-267 in non-divisional games, a .379 winning percentage.
#COFFEEGRAPHS should be a thing. Because if beergraphs is a thing, then why can’t coffeegraphs be a thing?