The 2021 Free Agent Tracker Is Here!
Our 2021 Free Agent Tracker is now live! There are currently over 200 players on the list, and several more will be added during the weeks following the postseason as decisions are made on 2021 options and teams continue to clear space on their 40-man rosters. The tracker will be regularly updated throughout the offseason as qualifying offers are made, accepted, and rejected, and free agents find their new homes.
You can filter by status (signed/unsigned), previous team, and signing team, and export the data for your own analysis. You can also currently sort by a player’s handedness, age, and 2020 WAR. Shortly after the postseason ends, projected 2021 WAR will be available, as well will the results of our annual contract crowdsourcing project, which include median contract total, years, and average annual value.
Players with options are not included in the list. The options typically do not have to be exercised or declined until five days after the World Series ends. As options are declined, those players will be added. Some of the more notable players with at least a decent chance of having their options declined are Chris Archer, Jake Arrieta, Brett Gardner, Corey Kluber, and Carlos Santana. Both Nick Castellanos and J.D. Martinez can become free agents by opting out of their current deals, but neither appears likely to do so at this point.
The Tracker can always be found in the RosterResource section of the site drop-down menu or within the RosterResource Depth Charts and Payroll pages, as seen at the top of the image below.
As always, we appreciate your feedback. If there are features you’d like to suggest for future versions of the tracker, feel free to drop them in the comments here!
I see almost no world where the Pirates hang on to Archer or the Phillies hang on to Arrieta. None.
Arrieta might be an interesting buy-low starting pitching candidate among a huge number of them this offseason (Paxton, Porcello, Tanaka, Quintana, Robbie Ray)
I would definitely not put Tanaka in the buy low group. He’ll get paid.
You know now that I look back at it, he’s actually doing about what he’s done the last few years. A 2.5-3.5 win player. Aside from the UCL thing, which teams may not be worried about, that’s likely a three year deal from someone with a decent average salary.
Tanaka will get paid.
Given the weirdness that has been the 2020 season, I wonder if a 3-year average WAR column might help to provide a bit more high level context?
Not sure if it’s gonna happen, but I will push for this addition. I’ve suggested career WAR, but I think the 3-yr average tells a better story in regards to 2021.
This free agent market is going to be something to see. The teams will, very likely, not know whether the stands will be full, half-full, or empty when the negotiations start. How can there be any type of negotiations when the revenue of the game is completely in limbo?
They’ll low-ball everyone based on poor 2020 revenue regardless. I expect we’ll see lots of 1 and 2 year deals where all concerned would rather wait and see before making big commitments
What other choice do the teams have but to low-ball unless the financial situation is clearly known. I agree that big money, long-term deals will be difficult to make, but what will the MLBPA do if the government continues to put a lid on the size of gatherings? I would like to see a poll of people on the Fangraphs website about what this knowledgeable group of fans think will be the attendance situation in April of 2021.
The teams with billionaire owners? They have the option of paying the players what they deserve
I have a sneaking suspicion the Phillies will be happy to pay up for Realmuto and Gregorius. That’s kind of their thing. LeMahieu will probably get a decent contract offer from the Yankees, but probably there will be fewer bidders to drive up the price. Maybe some enterprising team will try to sign Taijuan Walker or Jurickson Profar, just because they are so young.
Aside from that, I suspect you are right. There are probably only another 10-15 players who even have a shot at more than a one year deal, and many of them might opt for a shorter deal if they don’t like the terms. I think short term deals are nearly guaranteed for almost everyone who has less than 1 fWAR today (the only exception I can see is Tanaka), and given how the 2B market has been recently I’m not sure Cesar Hernandez or Jonathan Schoop are getting nice deals (especially Schoop).
While I can definitely see phillies keeping JT if the phillies were willing to pay up JT he’d already likely have a extension. Based on all the rumors JT has pushed for a extension and wants to stay with the phillies but they haven’t offered anything fair
The Cubs have already announced they will not play at full capacity next year, and more teams are sure to do the same. I am never in favor of behaviors that put downward pressure on labor and compensation, but in this case, it’s going to be difficult to fault ownership for a weird offseason. We’ll see if the eventual recovery is shared between the parties this time.
What opt-out guys like Castellanos?
Had you read the article, you’d have seen the answer to your question.
These are billionaire owners, yes I agree they will low ball the players. But the people on here acting like this is totally reasonable thing to do is silly, they can afford to pay the players but will chose not too. Without saying it MLB owners have basically agreed to collude for next year and the FA prices will be ridiculously cheap. Pathetic
How soon will projections go up with these players? I like to sort by Projected WAR.
I’ve heard earlier than normal. So probably a few days after the WS ends. We already had projected WAR and crowdsourcing when we launched the FA tracker on 11/4/19.