The Case for Trading Lucas Giolito

There’s a rumor out there that the Nationals would be willing to trade Lucas Giolito for Andrew Miller. That is almost certainly not true. There’s a related rumor out there that the Yankees don’t think Giolito would be enough in exchange for Miller. That is almost certainly not true. Miller is fantastic, no doubt, and the Nationals could use him, but it’s not like Miller is the only good reliever in the game, and Giolito is a wonderful prospect. Baseball America just ranked him fourth. MLB.com has him ranked fourth. Prospect people love Giolito. The Nationals think he’s pretty good, themselves.

This all raises an interesting question, though. How willing should the Nationals be to move Giolito for help? For Miller alone, it wouldn’t make great sense. Yet I do think there’s an argument to be made that Giolito should be more available than his prospect rankings would suggest.

It comes down to the difference between Giolito’s reputation and Giolito’s performance. He was a high draft pick, and he’s a highly-ranked prospect. He’s a highly-ranked prospect because people have seen him throw an outstanding heater, and a wipeout curveball. When scouts see two plus-plus weapons, and an intimidating frame, it doesn’t take much of a leap to envision long-term, big-league success. Giolito is supposed to have the tools. And his numbers have been more than acceptable.

But they haven’t been amazing, certainly not since Giolito graduated from A-ball. Last year, in the Double-A Eastern League, Giolito’s K-BB% ranked as “pretty good.” This year, in the same league, his K-BB% has ranked as “slightly above average.” Strikeouts have been present, but they haven’t come by the bushel, and the walks have been elevated. Walks are nothing new for big giant power pitchers, but command issues are a tremendous obstacle. They can’t be dismissed, and Giolito was anything but impressive in his brief time in the majors.

I wouldn’t read too deeply into those numbers. In the majors, Giolito has nine walks and five strikeouts, but, whatever. That’s nothing. Of greater interest: The stuff wasn’t…quite…there, not as advertised. I’ll pull from Baseball Savant. By average spin rate, Giolito’s four-seam fastball ranked in the ninth percentile. His curveball ranked in the 44th percentile. The drop on the curve is big, and it does look like a weapon, but the fastball result is more curious. Giolito didn’t throw an 80-grade fastball. Not with the Nationals. I don’t yet know what to make of that.

It’s not like I don’t believe the scouts. They’ve seen what they’ve seen. And Giolito does throw hard, which clearly boosts his ceiling. He’s helped by his size, which aids his plane. I’m just not in love with pitching prospects who don’t have outstanding numbers, or who haven’t shown much in the majors. Aaron Sanchez, this year, has proved my skepticism wrong, and sometimes pitchers do achieve that leap. Giolito still has to make that leap, and the majority of prospects don’t.

There’s no question he is a very good prospect. He’s already been a big-leaguer, and it’s always all about probability. Giolito’s probability distribution includes some ace-level outcomes. But for whatever it’s worth, this year, he hasn’t out-pitched co-prospect Reynaldo Lopez. He hasn’t out-pitched, say, Adalberto Mejia, who just earlier fetched Eduardo Nunez. Mejia doesn’t have Giolito’s raw stuff, but he has missed bats and thrown strikes. That has to matter for something. His command doesn’t need to improve so much.

If the Nationals love Giolito, that’s great. If the Nationals think he might be overrated, there could be an opportunity here. Giolito might even conceivably be around peak value, so the Nationals could cash him in, sending him to an organization that remains high on him. He’s definitely not someone to be given away, and for all I know he could be the solution to the Nationals’ current bullpen woes. Giolito is to be highly prized. But there are very legitimate questions. The Nationals, I’m almost sure, wouldn’t trade Giolito for Andrew Miller. But for, say, Dellin Betances? It’s not so far-fetched.





Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

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scottmember
7 years ago

Considering what they got for Chapman, the rumor doesn’t seem so outrageous to me at all. I actually think when you consider the years remaining on the contracts, Yanks would of gotten far more for Chapman than the potential return of Giolito for Miller.

BMac
7 years ago
Reply to  scott

Torres is a really nice return, but the other two prospects are more like suspects… McKinney has fallen right off the Top 100 list. See: http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016?list=prospects

A lot of things can happen with prospects that far from the majors, as McKinney’s case illustrates. You could look at the top 24 player from other years and notice some guys who are not highly valued today.

For example, Aaron Hicks was #24 in 2011: http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2011/

In 2012, Julio Teheran (not bad, but…)
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2012

In 2013, Danny Hultzen (hmmm… not franchise altering…)
http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/prospects/watch/y2013/

Much as I would prefer a position player over a pitcher because of their staying power, Giolito is likely in your starting rotation next year. That is better than a starting shortstop some time 4 years from now when you may no longer be the GM of the Yankees.

scottmember
7 years ago
Reply to  BMac

I was not simply comparing Torres vs Giolito, I am comparing 2 months of baseball from Chapman for Torres + vs 14months of baseball from Miller for Giolito. Getting 7x more of Miller than Chapman, the return theoretically should be significantly greater.

JCCfromDCmember
7 years ago
Reply to  scott

The same way that all subsequent pitcher trades should be refused unless adjusted to reflect what the Braves got for Shelby Miller?

Dave T
7 years ago
Reply to  BMac

Teheran is a bad example to include. He’s a 25 year old with 8.8 fWAR so far in his career over 3 prior full seasons plus this year. That would be tremendous return for 2 months of a relief pitcher.