The Dodgers Have a New Old Catcher

Because the Dodgers have two of the best young catching prospects in baseball, we knew they didn’t necessarily need a long-term solution behind the plate. But because the Dodgers lost Yasmani Grandal to free agency — and, ultimately, the Brewers — we knew they needed at least short-term help, to pair with Austin Barnes. One name that was frequently connected to Los Angeles was Francisco Cervelli, who the Pirates have considered moving. The Dodgers have gone in another direction, bringing back a familiar face, albeit a face that’s displaying more wrinkles.

Dodgers get:

Blue Jays get:

Martin was available. Martin was obviously available. He’s almost 36 years old, and the Blue Jays like Danny Jansen. They also have Luke Maile, Reese McGuire, and, if he still deserves to be included, Max Pentecost. Martin was out of room to play in Toronto, so the team looked to shed some of his $20-million final-year salary. I don’t think that much of the salary is being shed here at all, but then, any savings count. The Jays are out from underneath at least a little bit of money. And the Dodgers have their veteran stopgap.

Martin is headed into the last season of a five-year, $82-million contract. That tells you a lot about what he was at the beginning. He’s not that player anymore, as aging curves steepen in the mid- to late-30s. But, I swear to you, we don’t need to overthink this. We don’t need to give this 1,500 words, and we don’t need to try to figure out what secret thing the Dodgers might see. The Dodgers got Martin because, even though he’s diminished, he’s still more than acceptable. Here are all of the regular and semi-regular catchers over the past three seasons, showing wRC+ and Defensive Runs Saved per 1,000 innings. Martin is the point in yellow.

Offensively, Martin has ranked 17th out of 44. Defensively, he’s ranked 15th out of 44. Martin has been one of eight catchers to rank in the upper half in each statistic. He can still hit a little bit, and he can still receive a little bit. Everything’s getting worse, but he’s declining from a very high bar.

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One interesting note is that, per Baseball Savant, Martin still hits the ball hard. Here are four years of his average exit velocities:

  • 2015: 88.5 miles per hour
  • 2016: 89.0
  • 2017: 88.0
  • 2018: 90.6

Martin just posted the same average exit velocity as Bryce Harper and Anthony Rendon. See for yourself. The bat speed is there, but the contact quality appears in decline. Martin just found himself at the bottom of a leaderboard:

Lowest Ideal Angle Rates
Player Ideal Angle%
Russell Martin 30.0%
Orlando Arcia 31.2%
Eric Hosmer 31.6%
Travis Jankowski 32.2%
Ian Desmond 32.4%
Avisail Garcia 32.4%
Kolten Wong 32.5%
Rafael Devers 32.9%
Gary Sanchez 33.3%
Kevin Kiermaier 33.5%
SOURCE: Baseball Savant
Minimum 200 batted balls; rate of batted balls between 5 and 35 degrees.

Martin hit a league-worst 30% of his batted balls between 5 and 35 degrees. The average was 41%. Martin, the season before, finished at 40%, so this could be a fluke, but Martin earned his low recent batting average. He either got under the ball too much, or he rolled over on the ball too much. As long as we’re talking about leaderboards, though, Martin just led another one:

Lowest Chase Rates
Player O-Swing%
Russell Martin 14.1%
Joey Votto 17.2%
Andrew McCutchen 17.8%
Logan Forsythe 17.9%
Alex Bregman 18.1%
Mookie Betts 18.5%
Guillermo Heredia 19.3%
Aaron Hicks 19.4%
Mike Trout 19.8%
Mitch Garver 20.0%
Minimum 250 plate appearances.

In 2018, Martin swung less often than ever, and he wound up with baseball’s lowest chase rate by multiple percentage points. That’s a table of mostly good hitters, although the presence of Forsythe will give Dodgers fans pause. Martin has an advanced idea of the strike zone, and he doesn’t swing himself into trouble. He’ll wait pitchers out, getting into deeper counts.

Looking at the numbers, you can see how Martin ought to be a reasonable fit. He’s competent at the plate and behind it, and there’s no arguing with the track record. The biggest concern is that Martin will be another year older, and there aren’t that many effective catchers at the age of 36. Presumably, this doesn’t entirely close the door on any Dodgers pursuit of J.T. Realmuto. Barnes and Martin might be enough by themselves, but Barnes is both tradeable and optionable. You can’t count the Dodgers out on making a splash. They’ve just reduced their own urgency.

As for the minor leaguers — Sopko is 24 and right-handed. Brito is nearly 20, and is a right-handed infielder. Here’s Eric Longenhagen:

I don’t know what you might have expected. Each player has a chance — each player has tools — but however much the Blue Jays are paying Martin down should leave him with roughly the salary he’s worth. Players worth their salaries don’t have very much value above that. The Jays are getting a couple of very different rolls of the dice.

This is an unsexy move that fills a need for a contender. Whether they’ll go above and beyond this, I’m not sure, but at least they don’t *have* to. Russell Martin should still have a little baseball left to play.





Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.

29 Comments
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PhilMember since 2016
7 years ago

A hypothetical question, as I assume the Blue Jays aren’t sending this much cash:
Martin’s luxury tax amount this year is $16.4 million ($82M/5). His actual salary is $20M. If the Blue Jays send $18M to the Dodgers, what would the luxury tax amount be for the Dodgers? $0? -$1.6M?

dodgerbleu
7 years ago
Reply to  Phil

Interested in this reply/clarification. The way I understood it the whole 16.4 million would count – thought under the most recent CBA money included in trades doesn’t bring down the luxury tax calculation..

PhilMember since 2016
7 years ago
Reply to  dodgerbleu

That might be the case – but then the Puig/Kemp/Wood trade really doesn’t make sense as the Dodgers gained luxury tax space in order to use on…. Russell Martin.

mikejuntMember
7 years ago
Reply to  dodgerbleu

The entire 16.4 counts against the Dodgers’ tax, but they get credit back for whatever is paid by the other team.. .. 16.4 million, as it turns out

The Dodgers have Martin for $0 for CBT calculation.

stever20Member since 2017
7 years ago
Reply to  mikejunt

That’s absolutely insane. Great for the Dodgers.

mikejuntMember
7 years ago
Reply to  stever20

ya i figured they would be on the hook for at least 4-5m of it, nullifying his CBT calculation makes this a good acquistion IMO.

Dodgerfan711
7 years ago
Reply to  Phil

Dodgers owe Martin 3.6 million. The rest is covered by Toronto

Luke I am your Father
7 years ago
Reply to  Dodgerfan711

I unclear, is the CBT calculation for LAD $0 or $3.6M? Fascinating wrinkle if it’s $0…

drew_willyMember since 2020
7 years ago

It is $0.

Johnston
7 years ago

Good move by the Dodgers. Martin can teach the newbies for a year and he also serves as the stopgap until they can handle the job.

I just hope they aren’t paying much of his salary

docgooden85Member since 2018
7 years ago

I’m a little disappointed we didn’t get to see what Austin Barnes would do with the opportunity to catch 4-5 games a week all season long.

BipMember since 2016
7 years ago
Reply to  docgooden85

I’d say we’re pretty likely to see it now, unless Martin miraculously starts getting younger.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
7 years ago

I was surprised to learn, at the time of this trade, that Russell Martin was actually still a backup-level catcher in 2018. I think I checked out on him at some point in May, when he looked like he was on his way to the glue factory. But then he actually started hitting at that point. And according to BP he was still an above-average framer.

While obviously this team would be much better off with an actual starting catcher, given that their choices at this point were Martin or Maldonado or overpaying for Realmuto, I think this is a fairly savvy move on LA’s part. The guys they traded away were not worth anything, they’re paying almost no money…it’s kind of annoying that a team like the Dodgers can’t get a better one year stopgap but they came out of it okay.

As for Toronto…yikes. The catcher market must be awful to eat nearly the whole contract and get guys back who barely qualify as prospects (and IIRC, who need R5 protection soonish). There just isn’t much of a market for guys who look like good backup catchers, it seems.

radivel
7 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

If you think the aging catcher market is bad, you should check out the market for 34 yr old shortstops who haven’t played for over a year.

Billsaints
7 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Martin is consistently awful in the first two months then picks it up

sadtromboneMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  Billsaints

In 2017, he hit very well for the first 2+ months of the season, then turned into a slightly below-average hitter for two months (wRC+ around 95ish) and then into a substantially below-average hitter for the last 2+ (76ish wRC+).

In 2016, he was nearly unplayable for the first month or so, then a bad hitter for May, and then absolutely raked for three months before falling into a 76ish wRC+ in Sept/Oct.

In 2015, he was an above average hitter in March/April, June, and July (120ish wRC+), and was outstanding in May (146 wRC+).

Overall for his career, his batting line is very consistent across months, which is what we would expect if it’s all random variation–he has a 107-109 wRC+ for most months, with one at 102 and one at 97 (the 97 is in Sept/Oct).

While it’s certainly worrisome for any player when they struggle, I don’t necessarily think that it’s a pattern for him to struggle early in the year and do better afterwards.

John Elway
7 years ago
Reply to  sadtrombone

Glue factory? He’s not that long in the tooth yet.

Just neighing.

EVCinNYCMember since 2018
7 years ago

I still would rather spend on Maldonado – my only thought here is Dodger flip Barnes, and other prospects as part of Realmuto deal. Been thinking they’d have to take bad contract like Prado or Starling Castro (owed $11m in 2019 and $16m In 2020).

Ivan_GrushenkoMember since 2016
7 years ago

This seems to have as much upside as the Brian Dozier signing

kevinthecomic
7 years ago

I dunno. This seems to be similar to the Yankees move in signing DJLM: unnecessarily frugal. Turns out they mighta had Grandal on a one-year deal. Martin’s average was below the Mendoza line last year.

Billsaints
7 years ago
Reply to  kevinthecomic

He would often have a 0-1 3BB line for the Jays

PhilMember since 2016
7 years ago
Reply to  kevinthecomic

As bad as Martin’s batting line is, his 91WRC+ was still above the average for a catcher last year, 84WRC+.

sadtromboneMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  kevinthecomic

The big differences are that the Dodgers needed another catcher while the Yankees are going to spend a good chunk of the year playing DJLM out of position, and that the Dodgers are spending about 1/5th as much (when you factor in prospects).

But, yes: The Dodgers would have been way better off signing Grandal for that deal with the Brewers, if indeed it was available to them (which is probably true, if not guaranteed). It’s a little disappointing to see teams suddenly get frugal when they’re contenders.

TrueNorth
7 years ago

Question for Jeff – Does Fangraphs catcher defence incorporate pitch framing ?

drew_willyMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  TrueNorth

No.

Knoblaublah
7 years ago

How do he Dodgers keep talking other teams into solving Dodgers problems without getting much in return?

sadtromboneMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  Knoblaublah

The Braves trade was because they got Charlie Culberson and Brandon McCarthy for free. I thought they were on to something with McCarthy and were foolish for hoping Culberson would turn out, but it turned out the other way around. So it actually worked out (and of course, the Dodgers got something useful out of Kemp too…surprises all around).

The Reds trade was because they gave the Reds a lot of major league talent for someone who is probably done. If you ignore where the Reds are on the win curve and what their team might look like in 2020 (which the Reds obviously did!) and just look at value exchanged, the Reds look like they won that trade. Wood and Puig are pretty good players.

The Jays trade was just a case of no one having any interest in Martin. Catchers are clocking in a little below we expected this offseason, and while there are a number of teams that want to upgrade beyond a Russell Martin-level catcher (with Ramos, Grandal, or Realmuto) everyone already has a guy like Russell Martin already. Now I’m of the mind that Martin has much more bounceback potential than Lucroy, and Maldonado doesn’t offer any upside, but realistically there’s not that much that separates them. Martin just doesn’t upgrade many team’s catching situations.

In this sort of a case, I get really annoyed when teams sell low on a guy like Martin, but the Jays really did have to move him this offseason. Teams historically have been reluctant to trade for catchers mid-season (may be less true now, though), and he wasn’t going to net that much more even if they held him, and they can’t really keep Jansen in the minors any longer, and there’s not much of a place to play him…I get it here.

SenorGato
7 years ago

The Dodgers are making some shrewd moves this offseason during their quest to pretend to be poor. I hope it blows up in their face and probably believe it will. The problem with that is, when it does, they are likely outspending whoever passes them…God, the owners in this sport are really…When is the revolution?

slamcactusMember since 2020
7 years ago
Reply to  SenorGato

They’re not pretending they’re poor, they’re trying to avoid the luxury tax so they don’t have to pay a premium for every free agent they acquire. This is the luxury tax working as it was intended, limiting the ability of the very wealthiest teams to outspend everyone else. If you don’t like it, your issue is with the CBA, not the Dodgers.