Tim Lincecum Might Have Some Magic Left

Tim Lincecum was once one of the joys of baseball.

At just 5-foot-11, 170 pounds and with hair past his shoulders, he could be mistaken for someone at your neighborhood skate park, only he could also throw 98 mph. His frame dropped him to the 10th pick of the 2006 draft even after he struck out almost all of Division I while pitching for the University of Washington. The Giants took the risk and were rewarded for betting on his unorthodox delivery and build. His mid-90s fastball, sharp-breaking curve, and elite changeup led him to two Cy Young awards. He was part of three world-championship clubs.

Then Lincecum and his velocity went missing before resurfacing this winter.

Now 33, Lincecum has been quietly working out at Driveline Baseball with the hope of rediscovering some of his stuff and returning to the majors. He worked out for MLB teams on Thursday, and the results are reportedly encouraging.

This is an instance where the radar-gun readings really mean something.

When we last saw Lincecum in 2016 with the Angels, he was shelled, allowing 41 runs and 68 hits in 38 innings. Notably, his fastball velocity had declined 6 mph from its peak.

In 2008, Lincecum’s fastball average of 94.6 mph ranked eighth among all MLB starters, one spot ahead of right-handed pitcher archetype Justin Verlander.

In 2015, Lincecum’s 88.7 mph fastball ranked 173rd out of 182 pitchers to throw at least 70 innings. Average fastball velocity, of course, has continued to increase each year, with the average starter’s velocity hitting 93 mph for the first time this past season since PITCHf/x debuted. So, in that context, Lincecum’s velocity drop was even more damaging.

Velocity matters. Even though high-velocity fastballs aren’t often swing-and-miss pitches, they reduce timing, and set up the offspeed and breaking pitches. And it was Linceucm’s velocity, changeup, and curveball that made him a Cy Young winner and one of the top strikeout pitchers in the game. In 2009, Lincecum’s changeup produced 33.7 linear-weight runs above average.

Lincecum is will likely never again become the pitcher who owns four top-10 Cy Young finishes. But if he could sustain a 3 mph bump, if Driveline could help him get back some of his stuff, then he’s a worthwhile lottery ticket for a club this spring.

As consumers of professional baseball, we’re always in search of good stories. And a comeback by The Freak, however modest, would be a heckuva a story. It’s one worth rooting for.





A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.

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pedeysRSox
6 years ago

He could be interesting with the White Sox as Fulmer could use some more time in AAA (1-2 years at least).