Tim Lincecum Might Have Some Magic Left
Tim Lincecum was once one of the joys of baseball.
At just 5-foot-11, 170 pounds and with hair past his shoulders, he could be mistaken for someone at your neighborhood skate park, only he could also throw 98 mph. His frame dropped him to the 10th pick of the 2006 draft even after he struck out almost all of Division I while pitching for the University of Washington. The Giants took the risk and were rewarded for betting on his unorthodox delivery and build. His mid-90s fastball, sharp-breaking curve, and elite changeup led him to two Cy Young awards. He was part of three world-championship clubs.
Then Lincecum and his velocity went missing before resurfacing this winter.
Now 33, Lincecum has been quietly working out at Driveline Baseball with the hope of rediscovering some of his stuff and returning to the majors. He worked out for MLB teams on Thursday, and the results are reportedly encouraging.
tim lincecum threw for 25-30 scouts this afternoon in seattle (at least 15 teams, likely 20). said to have thrown 90-93 mph, better than two years ago. chance for a job: improved.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) February 15, 2018
This is an instance where the radar-gun readings really mean something.
When we last saw Lincecum in 2016 with the Angels, he was shelled, allowing 41 runs and 68 hits in 38 innings. Notably, his fastball velocity had declined 6 mph from its peak.
In 2008, Lincecum’s fastball average of 94.6 mph ranked eighth among all MLB starters, one spot ahead of right-handed pitcher archetype Justin Verlander.
In 2015, Lincecum’s 88.7 mph fastball ranked 173rd out of 182 pitchers to throw at least 70 innings. Average fastball velocity, of course, has continued to increase each year, with the average starter’s velocity hitting 93 mph for the first time this past season since PITCHf/x debuted. So, in that context, Lincecum’s velocity drop was even more damaging.
Velocity matters. Even though high-velocity fastballs aren’t often swing-and-miss pitches, they reduce timing, and set up the offspeed and breaking pitches. And it was Linceucm’s velocity, changeup, and curveball that made him a Cy Young winner and one of the top strikeout pitchers in the game. In 2009, Lincecum’s changeup produced 33.7 linear-weight runs above average.
Lincecum is will likely never again become the pitcher who owns four top-10 Cy Young finishes. But if he could sustain a 3 mph bump, if Driveline could help him get back some of his stuff, then he’s a worthwhile lottery ticket for a club this spring.
As consumers of professional baseball, we’re always in search of good stories. And a comeback by The Freak, however modest, would be a heckuva a story. It’s one worth rooting for.
A Cleveland native, FanGraphs writer Travis Sawchik is the author of the New York Times bestselling book, Big Data Baseball. He also contributes to The Athletic Cleveland, and has written for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, among other outlets. Follow him on Twitter @Travis_Sawchik.
He could be interesting with the White Sox as Fulmer could use some more time in AAA (1-2 years at least).
Increased velo in a workout is one thing. Maintaining it over 80-100 pitches is another. I’m skeptical.
For a team that can use some experience in the bullpen, though, he might be a good fit, and see where it goes.
Yeah, I’d like to see him tried out in the pen first.
We’re all skepical. And yet he couldn’t have pulled this off a couple of years ago. It’s just one step, but it’s a step.
Orioles! Instead of Andrew Cashner, do things like this! Doug Fisher was there and you blew it…these are the sorts of things you do. Cheap deals.
I think Tim is smart enough to avoid Camden Yards and facing the Bombers. NL team in a pitcher friendly park is where you go to reestablish value.
If only there were an NL team in a pitcher-friendly park that’s running ~4.50 ERA guys out as their 4th/5th starters.
Hint: Rhymes with “science”.
I’m not smart on these things at all, but how can you be a skinny kid with seemingly little arm strength and throw 98, then later on you bulk up, get stronger than ever, and can only top 93? How does this work?
Age and wear?
I’m not a doctor, but I would imagine the tendons and ligaments stretch out, get small (or large) tears, lose elasticity, etc.
Pitching is a very speed reliant movement, it’s all about moving the right parts of your body at the right time as fast as possible. Most people lose the ability to move as fast as they age. Also Lincecum had hip problems, which probably hurt his hip to shoulder separation, which is a key to throwing hard, also a guy his height really needs to have near perfect mechanics to throw hard. Which he doesn’t really have anymore cause hip problems and/or a loss of athletiscm. His increase in body mass helps offset all he’s lost a little bit. That’s why he’s throwing 90-93 and not in the mid 80’s. But for a guy his size to throw 98 he’d have to be a freak athlete, and Lincecum just isn’t that anymore.
Have you ever noticed some of the longest hitters on the PGA Tour are some of the smallest guys physically?
Same principle.
I just got a laugh that there are 5 people (so far) who don’t like questions! lol
As a Giants fan it was never just a loss of velocity with Tim, he never seemed to adapt to being a pitcher instead of a thrower. He had his days when his other pitches were working, but he got jacked when he threw too many fastballs.
Also a Giants fan, and as the article says, you set up the off-speed pitches with your fastball. If it’s 88, that’s not going to do it. 93, it has a fighting chance. And he likely still has the good change.
This seems a little harsh, but there is some truth here as well. I went to a Q&A for Bengie Molina’s book signing a couple years ago and Molina didn’t have the greatest things to say about Lincecum. Molina basically said that Lincecum was frustrating because he wouldn’t gameplan much and would shake off Molina over and over again when Molina was putting in the work before and after games to figure out how to best attack opposing hitters. Now that could just be an aging veteran being a little grumpy over the young buck, but clearly Molina thought Lincecum did not have the game sense other pitchers did.
On the other hand we saw Lincecum constantly adapt his repertoire. It wasn’t until 2009 really that he developed that elite split change. Then halfway through the 2010 season he developed an incredible late moving, hard biting slider. He relied heavily on that pitch in the 2010 WS run, the Giants might not have won a championship that year if he didn’t develop that pitch.
Further, his pitch usage over the years goes against the “relies on fastball” trope. In the beginning of his career he threw his fastball over 60% of the time. His last two years in a Giants uniform his fastball rate was under 50%. I think the bigger issue was that he no longer trusted his fastball and wasn’t able to set up hitters with his elite secondary pitches anymore because the fastball deteriorated so badly.
Tim Lincecum is probably my 2nd favorite Giant of all time behind Barry Bonds. I assumed Lincecum was done being a starting pitcher after he dominated in the 2012 playoffs out of the pen. Thought he could go several years as an elite reliever and eventually make it to Cooperstown in a similar fashion to how Eckersley did.
I don’t know if it was the money or Lincecum’s ego that caused the Giants to continue trotting him out there every 5th day. Maybe both. His two no hitters against the Padres during his down years were remarkable, but I think he’d have lasted much longer if he just gave up starting.
If Tim is smart he will try and make it work out of the bullpen this time and at least regain some of that previous luster. He can make 90-93 work well if he still has the plus slider and split change. Either way I’ll be rooting for Tiny Tim regardless of his role or what jersey he ends up wearing.
I saw that STL was one of the teams to watch him. He’d fit the bill for them, since STL is throwing arms at the bullpen and seeing who sticks (major league deals/trades for Gregerson, Leone, and Bud Norris, and minor league veteran signings Mujica and Motte).
I would love to see the Rockies and Bud Black take a chance on him