Yasiel Puig Got Screwed
I know that the game has moved on — as I write this right now, the Nationals are beating the Dodgers 4-3 in the sixth inning of Game 3. This game will turn on so many things, a handful of them yet to happen. But I still want to take you back quickly to the bottom of the first. The Dodgers jumped out to a 1-0 lead, and Yasiel Puig came up with one out and a runner on second. He took three balls, then the count ran full, then Gio Gonzalez attacked Puig inside with a heater.
Let’s slow that down, with a ball-tracker that I will choose to believe in this instance is reliable:
That’s a good general pitch location, and that’s also a good job of receiving by Jose Lobaton. I’ve seen far, far worse pitches thrown in full counts. But that pitch isn’t a strike. That pitch isn’t even a borderline strike. That pitch is a ball, full stop. Gameday provides its own evidence:
From Baseball Savant, here are the 2016 full-count pitches called strikes against right-handed hitters. I’ve highlighted the pitch to Puig in blue.
I’m not writing this because I have a rooting interest — I don’t. And I’m not writing this because I think it’ll cost the Dodgers the game. I’m writing this only because it was an important pitch in an important game, and this was a pretty extremely bad strike call. Not the worst of all time or anything, but bad nevertheless, and this was the whole difference between a walk and a strikeout. Puig didn’t do anything wrong. He did what he was supposed to do exactly right — he took a pitch even in a situation in which he might’ve been feeling aggressive. Puig should’ve been rewarded for his patience, but instead Gonzalez was rewarded for, I don’t know, throwing a ball with precision?
I don’t want to dwell. Again, the game has moved past this, and the first inning has long since been forgotten. But had this pitch been called properly, it would’ve made a win-expectancy difference for the Dodgers of about five percentage points. Another way of thinking about it: the run value of calling this a strike instead of a ball was 0.6. More than half of a run, which is substantial, as individual pitch-calls go. We don’t get a whole lot of opportunities to come to the defense of Yasiel Puig’s plate discipline. Yasiel Puig should’ve drawn a walk. I don’t know what the hell this must do to a player psychologically.
Jeff made Lookout Landing a thing, but he does not still write there about the Mariners. He does write here, sometimes about the Mariners, but usually not.
While working home plate, Ron Kulpa, from time to time, appears to be daydreaming. The daydream goes something (exactly) like this:
Kulpa leans in and gets the sign, comes set, glares at the runner on second, kicks his menacing thigh, shows a little butt… and delivers… strike three!!!
“Yasiel Puig got screwed” is pretty provacative. “Yasiel Puig got grabbed by the pussy” is much less obscene.
I’m always surprised when it is the umps fault and when it is a credit to the catcher for being good at framing.
This is why I don’t like framing–it’s a competition between the catcher and the umpire. But competition is supposed to be between players on opposing teams.
I think it depends on how Close it is. if it is an Inch outside it is a great Frame Job and ump can’t really be blamed. but that pitch was at least 4-5 inches inside an ump has to see that.
BTW regarding framing:
does it become obsolete when the robo ump Comes? I’m really pro robo ump but I guess it will take some defensive value away from the catcher and might Change scouting and even Coaching of catchers. some good framers might lose Money there and not like it.
but that is certainly only a minor collateral damage, we do Need the robo ump.
Agreed. No-one enjoys blown calls, and the “human element” that some people think would be lost is the human element of the players on the field, not the umps making the wrong call.
In any case, even with Robo-Ump, you still get the human element of blown calls on pitches.
Foul tip or not?
Swing or no swing?
Hit by pitch or not? (Tried to avoid or not? In the strike zone or not? While swinging or not? Kulpa missed two of these on the same call in this very game! And Robo-Ump won’t be making those calls. Maybe Ron Kulpa would have gotten them right if he hadn’t been concentrating on the exceedingly difficult task of calling balls and strikes by eye.)
So if someone wants to INSIST that it’s not baseball without the home plate umpire making judgment calls on balls and strikes, tell them that there will still be plenty of such judgment calls, the calls simply won’t be on something where a computer can easily and quickly be far more accurate than any human.
There’s no good argument against Robo-Ump other than the trivial points that current pitch tracking only checks the front plane of the zone (easily fixed) and current pitch tracking uses a strike zone that’s not what anyone is used to (also fixable since we know what the called zone actually looks like).
Not true at all Doug, sensors could also detect with a ball was tipped, or if the swing crosses the plane of the plate, or if the flight path is altered even by something so subtle as swishing through the folds of a jersey, or if the tag beats the runner, etc etc.
There’s a good argument made for robo umpires every game. Ask Yasiel Puig, there’s nothing trivial about all his preparation and instincts telling him not to swing, only to have someone else’s judgement error cost him his chance to contribute.
If you had a photo system to decide if the ball is over home plate (automated with IR or UV lasers, or a camera over home plate) and the ump off to the side to call too high / too low, he would have a much better vantage spot for lots of other calls like check swings. The ump could be in front of the dugout looking in. I’ve sat in seats just behind the dugout and I had a much clearer view than the ump at the time of too high and too low (it’s easy to see below the knees when you’re looking edge on than when you’re hovering behind the catcher).
I blame the ump when it is an inch outside. He got duped by the catcher or made a bad call! For a ball in the batters box (like this one) it was probably really good framing and he made a really bad call.
Two calls that were arguably the worst of their kind all season – way to go Ron Kulpa!
Who says that clutch isn’t a real thing?!
That’s why whenever we blame umps we say they’re kulpable.
Not sure whether to boo or give you an award for this.