Isiah Kiner-Falefa Has Improved Nearly All Facets of His Game

All-Star Game voting kicked off a few weeks ago (if you haven’t filled out a ballot, you can do so here), with the first round of totals announced earlier this week. There are a few players running away with their position, but most are up for grabs. Among those looking for more votes: Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Rangers shortstop, who’s unhappy with the results so far.

Just saw the top ten in all star votes. What a joke…

— Isiah Kiner-Falefa (@Isiahkf11) June 14, 2021

Kiner-Falefa has a case for taking the trip to Colorado, as he currently ranks fourth in both FanGraphs WAR (2.0) and bWAR (2.8) among shortstops in the AL, yet he did not crack the top 10 in the first vote update. Still, All-Star roster spot or no, this has been a wildly successful season for him, particularly in light of the defensive move he had to make.

Originally drafted as a shortstop, Kiner-Falefa played multiple infield positions as he worked his way through the minor leagues and also tried his hand at catching before going from third base to shortstop this season. As noted by Andrew Simon of MLB.com and our Jake Mailhot during the offseason, he’s now become the first player in the modern era to play at least 50 games at catcher, third base, and shortstop throughout his career.

It’s not only his versatility that is noteworthy. The reigning 2020 AL Gold Glove winner at third base, Kiner-Falefa’s skills haven’t diminished with his shift to shortstop; his defensive component of WAR (based on UZR) is the highest at that position in the AL. The table below shows a breakdown of FanGraphs’ measures of the primary components of WAR individually (hitting, fielding, and base running):

According to Baseball Savant’s Outs Above Average (OAA) fielding metric, Kiner-Falefa ranked 9th among infielders last season with 6 OAA en route to winning the AL Gold Glove award for third base. That was enough for Texas to deal incumbent Elvis Andrus to Oakland for Khris Davis and stick Kiner-Falefa in Andrus’ place.

Despite a great season with the glove in 2020, projection systems were generally confused by a catcher turned third baseman turned shortstop. The ZiPS model did not have high hopes for Kiner-Falefa manning the position everyday; the Rangers ended up dead last in our preseason power rankings at shortstop. That didn’t get past Kiner-Falefa, who is apparently among FanGraphs’ readership:

This is going on my locker! I wonder who lead the A.L in defensive war last year. https://t.co/GHLj7nXSZq

— Isiah Kiner-Falefa (@Isiahkf11) March 24, 2021

Prior to the 2021 season, Kiner-Falefa had only played in 17 big league games at shortstop, and it was anyone’s guess how he would perform. We’re nearing the season’s midway point, and although advanced defensive metrics take a long time to measure the true fielding value of a player, he’s excelled through the first 69 games, ranking among the leaders at shortstop in most of FanGraphs’ fielding metrics. He’s first in Defensive Runs Saved (DRS) with 9 and tied for fifth in Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) at 2.0 with Brandon Crawford.

Helping Kiner-Falefa’s cause is sheer quantity. He’s seen the most balls in the zone with 172 and made the most plays with 128, well ahead of any other shortstop (Trea Turner is second in the latter category with 100). One reason he’s seeing so many balls his way is that he plays just about every game, starting 68 of the Rangers’ 69 games thus far; J.P. Crawford is the only other shortstop with more innings played. Additionally, the Rangers’ pitching staff has generated plenty of opportunities, ranking ninth in the majors with a roundball rate of 44.8%.

Kiner-Falefa’s better-than-average fielding at the position so far is encouraging, but we know that fielding stats are subject to higher variance than most other player metrics, and even a full season can misfire on a player’s true abilities. He’ll have to keep it going for a bit longer before I’m convinced he’s really a top-tier defensive shortstop.

There were also plenty of questions before the season about how Kiner-Falefa would contribute at the plate. He’s been a below-average hitter in his career, with an average slash line of .260/.319/.351 and a wRC+ of 77. With little to no power or demonstrable ability to draw walks, improving on an average hit tool was his best bet heading into the season, and he showed some a glimmer of a contact-heavy profile during the 2020 season by hitting a career-best .280.

Things have improved this season — kind of. Kiner-Falefa has made gains in the power department, eclipsing his previous career high in home runs (five) and ISO (.117). His batting average has also gone up, but he’s walking a bit less, so his OBP remains relatively unchanged from ‘20. His contact numbers, meanwhile, are well in line with how he’s hit historically; he’s near the bottom of the league in HardHit% (31.7) and FB% (21.1%). He’s mostly the same hitter he was in ‘20, but with a few more dingers.

His best tool, however, may be his speed, and he’s taking full advantage of it. Kiner-Falefa leads the majors in infield hits (tied with David Fletcher) with 15. His propensity for hitting ground balls (58.9 GB%) combined with that speed has proven an effective ticket for getting on base, as he’s consistently outperformed his expected stats on ground balls (.275 wOBA versus .231 xwOBA). And once he’s gotten on base, he’s been stealing at will. That’s despite speed that isn’t elite (70th percentile); it’s been his ability to steal off the pitcher that has led to a career-high 15 thefts in 16 attempts.

Kiner-Falefa may not have the power to be an extra-base machine, but with his speed, he doesn’t have to; by running so much, he effectively extends his singles into doubles and sometimes triples. It’s not just stealing bases, either. Of his 13 doubles this season, five of them have come on ground balls, second to only Raimel Tapia.

A player with Kiner-Falefa’s profile sticking around in the majors is a tough assignment. His versatility and defensive abilities have given him opportunities, and he’s shown he can exploit his tools to create value scoring runs as well. With no imminent threat to his playing time, he will continue to get as many opportunities as he can handle. If he can continue to play above-average shortstop (which is no guarantee, knowing how advanced defensive metrics can swing from season to season), he’ll provide a lot of value for the Rangers even if his offensive production regresses a bit. Should he be an All-Star? I think he makes an interesting case, but it’s tough competing with Carlos Correa, Xander Bogaerts, and Bo Bichette.