It’s Brewtal Out There: Milwaukee Takes Game 1
MILWAUKEE — A year ago, the Dodgers came to Milwaukee as the lower seed in the NLCS and blew the doors off the Brewers. Milwaukee scored four runs, total, in a four-game sweep. Both teams’ rosters have evolved, and individual players have changed for better (Jacob Misiorowski) or worse (Shohei Ohtani), but what could possibly be so different this time around? As Dan Szymborski wrote in his series preview, teams that get beat in a playoff series are 17-28 all-time when afforded a rematch the following year. Teams that get swept are 0-5.
Well, at least one thing’s different: The Brewers aren’t going to get swept this time. They checked off the hardest item on their to-do list — beat Tarik Skubal — right away, with a 2-1 win at a sold-out American Family Field. Misiorowski made hard work of his 4 1/3-inning stint, but some terrific infield defense allowed him to escape with a single run on the board, and a solo homer by Brice Turang preceded an RBI single by Luis Lara an inning later. After another four innings, the Brewers had taken Round 1.
Misiorowski performed an homage to his opponents’ home city by battling traffic all night. He might be the presumptive NL Cy Young winner and the hardest-throwing pitcher of all time, but Misiorowski is also a 24-year-old with arms like the guy wires on a radio tower. He’s never had impeccable command to begin with — not that you need it when you throw 102 — and something was a little off about Miz’s fastball shape.
Michael is a writer at FanGraphs. Previously, he was a staff writer at The Ringer and D1Baseball, and his work has appeared at Grantland, Baseball Prospectus, The Atlantic, ESPN.com, and various ill-remembered Phillies blogs. Follow him on Twitter, if you must, @MichaelBaumann.
Outstanding analysis of this fascinating first game. Well done.
A superb game and equally superb analysis!
Skubal has not been as dominating since his return from injury. Still excellent, but not as dominating.
Also, this year’s playoffs are not making the case that lower-payroll teams cannot compete.
The playoffs are not, but the owners soon will.
I feel like this is some kind of fallacy though. Just because some are competing, doesnt mean that even more wouldn’t be competitive under different circumstances.
Anyone care to try and explain what Miz did that resulted in a balk while the Bauers pickoff was not a balk?
Thanks in advance
Yeah, MLB could probably stand to crack down on LHP stepping at the danged on-deck circle with their moves. Vesia’s torso clearly moved toward home plate and was certainly more “deceptive” (and intentionally deceptive at that) than Miz’s gangly-limbed step off.
If you’re wondering why there hasn’t been a bigger increase in stolen base attempts, this is a legit reason. Whenever a camera shows the 3B dugout POV, you can see runners most often stepping back toward 1B on pitches delivered by a lefty. Their initial leads are just for show and to entice disengagements, but they have zero confidence in successfully timing pitches.
Just to clarify I posted that as a legit request. Not meant as any form of sarcasm. I honestly did not know why one and not the other.
Apparently, Miz twitched his front knee slightly before his move. It’s visible in slow-mo, but I have no idea how the ump saw that in real time.
How can a twitch that a runner can’t possibly see be “deceptive”? Especially when that runner is already committed? Total b.s. call.
Also not sure how you’re supposed to move your right foot without shifting weight to your left foot and do so without showing any movement at all. There has to be some leeway there
Thanks! And the LA pitcher did not balk? Because I have seen that move called a balk countless times in games.
That’s correct. But big picture, you’d expect some movement in the front leg to push off as the back foot comes off the rubber. Obviously, the plate umpire thought this movement was before the back foot coming off, or more likely, his view was blocked so he couldn’t see the back foot coming off.
I think this gets called based on him looking super awkward stepping off. You can get away with moving your front leg a fraction of a second early if you do it in one fluid motion.
Right. It was an awkward step off that looked obliquely suspicious in real time. But a real balk in the more meaningful sense was committed by Vesia. They don’t call that all year so I don’t expect them to now, but they should start cracking down next year.
Michael, this is about as enjoyable a write up as I have read on something as mundane as a baseball game but how could you include such a glaring mistake. You said, ” Cooper Pratt made a nice play in the hole, and his throw beat Tucker to second by a beat. But Hernández is 35 now, and he runs like it.” No, not even close, I am just short of 85 and I would have beaten it out.
“That’s the game we play now. Everybody throws hard,” Enrique Hernández said.
Pretty much sums up modern baseball.
Great article, thanks!
I would like to see an analysis of Robert’s decision to intentionally walk the bases loaded with 2 outs in the 8th so that Scott could face a LH batter. I suspect it was a foolish move, and that Roberts lucked out that the 106 mph grounder went directly to SS Betts.
I really really appreciate the explanation for why first the Padres and then the Dodgers fouled off so many Miz fastballs rather than whiff on them as everyone else has done all season. Disturbing that the Fox Sports idiots can’t effectively communicate such info.
This has been the strategy against Schlittler, too. If he isn’t crisp, the fouls start to tick up. It’s effective to push a guy out of the game earlier, if you can pull it off. That is one of those “easier-said-than-done” things — it takes a lot bat/barrel control to do that repeatedly.
Two strike foul balls are the new market inefficiency.
There’s little incentive for networks to hire the best analysts (sports or news). They’re trying to get the most views, which leads better ratings and ad revenue. It’s better for them to get a famous ex-all star than appeasing the relatively few the baseball degenerates that spend time on commenting on fangraph articles. (tongue in cheek, of course)
Do you know a single person that watches games for the analysts?
The Brewers’ games so far in the playoffs have been awesome baseball to watch.
I’m wondering how a Brewers, Guardians, or Rays World Series victory would impact the impending lockout. The owners will point to it as a “gotcha” that teams don’t need to spend more. Something interesting to ponder.
The owners can say what they want, but surely the players would point to it as a reason that MLB doesn’t need a salary cap in order to have competitive balance, and I think that would be more persuasive. All three of those teams made some trade deadline acquisitions as well.
Agreed. However, I suspect the owners will point out through their PR that, other than 2017, no team with a payroll in the bottom half has won the WS in the 3rd millennium. Nearly all WS winners have come from the top 10 payrolls. Of course, there are numerous teams in the bottom half that simply didn’t try.
I just wish the television announcers and analysts could get off this “home run” versus “small ball” dichotomy. The fact is that the best teams hit home runs AND play small ball. When the Rays outhomer an opponent, they aren’t taking on a new identity. They’re just winning in that particular way on that particular night.
Yup. And stop pretending that the Brewers aren’t analytically inclined. In a low-run environment like these playoffs, ‘small ball’ tactics are often the best percentage play.
I wish they’d stop saying “small ball” when at least half the time they mean “contact hitting.”
“Misiorowski performed an homage to his opponents’ home city by battling traffic all night.”
Steve Winwood would be proud. So would Jimi, but only if it was crosstown.
Michael, working that in there: “while you see a chance, take it”