JABO: Billy Hamilton Should Work on His Bunting
Billy Hamilton is the fastest player in baseball. He’s done some remarkable things on the field with his legs, including scoring on a pop-up that barely left the infield. He currently leads the majors in stolen bases with 17 thefts, and only 12 teams have stolen more bases this year than Hamilton has himself. His speed is a weapon, and when he gets on base, good things happen for the Cincinnati Reds.
But he isn’t getting on base very often. He’s currently hitting just .202 with a .259 on base percentage. That Hamilton has stolen 17 bases while only reaching via a hit or walk 35 times is a testament to just how fast he is, but while the Reds will take the stolen bases, what they really need is for Hamilton to simply reach first base more often. And there’s one very clear way for that to happen: he needs to get better at bunting.
From a quantity perspective, no one tries more often than Hamilton, as he put down his 10th bunt of the season in the first inning of last night’s contest with the Braves. However, it took him until that 10th attempt to get his first bunt hit of the year, and a less generous official scorer might have ruled it an E-5 after Alberto Callaspo mishandled his attempt to scoop it off the grass. Before last night, Hamilton both led the league in bunt attempts while also last in the league in bunt hits, which is not a combination you’d expect from the fastest guy in baseball.
On the one hand, you’d think that maybe Hamilton is just having trouble bunting his way on board because defenses expect him to try and are aggressively positioning their defense to defend against it, but the evidence suggests that this is just good old-fashioned lousy execution. For example, here are three of his previous attempts earlier this season.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Worth noting that everyone else on that list except Segura is either a switch-hitter or bats left handed. Hamilton may be faster than all of them but probably not fast enough to make up for the 5 foot head start the lefties get out of the box. Bunting from the left side is a big advantage.
Hamilton is a switch hitter.
As a natural righty, Hamilton can square the ball adequately from the right side but has almost no pop from the left side, and pitchers seem to be attacking that.
I think he really needs to work extra-hard on his bunting from the left side, since that’s where he gets the most bang for the buck. Even if it means he puts in ALL his extra bunting practice as a lefty.
6 of his 8 homeruns have been while batting lefty..
I’m sorry, I don’t mean to insult the writing of the JABO writers, because I think it is quite good, but it really annoys me that the JABO writing seems so technically and mathematically watered down, like it is being written for an old man with no experience with sabermetrics. I am guessing that that is the purpose of JABO, so that the general public can become more familiar with sabermetrics and come to understand the terminology better. All of complaining isn’t to say that the articles are bad, which they most definitely are not, or that the conclusions of the writers are incorrect, which they probably are not. It is just that I always finish the articles disappointed because, for some reason, I click on the link expecting so much more in-depth analysis. It just seems simplified and watered down. The articles always leave something lacking. Nevertheless, keep up the quite excellent work. I love this website.
Think of the JABO articles as part of a gateway between the saber-seeking audience and Fangraphs. What the regulars here would consider watered-down is still great food for thought for a novice stathead.
How many times do you have to be punished before you learn not to click the link?
On the flip side, I’d argue that the quality of the writing is better when they’re writing for a broader audience. Sullivan’s tendencies toward repetition are much less in evidence.
Given the Reds’ current predicament with Mesoraco, would there be any logic to letting him have the first at bat of every home game and immediately pinch running for him with Hamilton if he gets on base? Mesoraco had an OBP around 100 points higher than Hamilton last year.
Would have to be away games, right?
Yes. My bad.
Unless I’m screwing up the numbers (always possible), even bunting at 50% success still leaves him severely lacking.
PLAYER AB H AVG
Billy Hamilton 124 25 .202 <<< current (1/10 bunting)
124 29 .234 <<< if he were 5/10 bunting)
Better than now, but still severely lacking.
There really is no good reason Hamilton still hits right-handed at all. They should have him hit (and bunt) left-handed. Push bunts are infinitely easier than trying to pull and he gets the head start to first.
Bunting seems to be a lost art. I blame organized baseball. As a kid we played 3on3 with no catcher. No bunts in the game, but bunts were used to keep any pitch you wanted to take from going across the road and into the bushes. The more tired you got of chasing the ball, the better you got at bunting. At age 10, I could put the bat on a pitch almost anywhere. We all could. Major leaguers who grew up in that era could bunt. It was as natural as catching the ball.