JABO: (Not) Pitching to Kris Bryant
Kris Bryant finally did it. After not hitting a home run in 19 games following his call up, he went out on Saturday in Milwaukee and clubbed a Kyle Lohse slider 389 feet out to left-center. The homer was the one number conspicuously missing from his season statistics, but it was always coming: the 23-year-old put up famous power numbers in the minor leagues, he’s been hitting inside fastballs to the warning track in right-center, and there was nothing telling us anything was wrong. Part of his power drought was surely his ongoing adjustment to major league pitching, something all rookies have to contend with. However, his treatment by pitchers so far shows just how unique Bryant might be, and puts him in a rare class of hitters.
Unsurprisingly, there was something special about the home run Bryant hit, beyond it being the first of many in his career. Let’s take a look at it, slowed down at impact, with a bit of an effect on the ball to make it more visible:
There are a few things to note: it was a slider, it was on the first pitch of the at-bat, and it was over the outer third of the plate. It caught more of the strike zone than Lohse wanted, but it wasn’t the worst hanging slider anyone has seen. This serves first and foremost as a reminder that Kris Bryant is very talented at hitting baseballs. It also informs us of the approach we’ve seen pitchers use when attacking Bryant so far in his young career, and the adjustments he needs to make in order to be successful at this level.
Lost in the frenzy over a big power prospect not hitting home runs is the fact that hitting for power requires getting good pitches to hit (unless you’re Vladimir Guerrero). Usually, a hitter doesn’t view a first-pitch slider on the outer third of the plate to be a great candidate for a home run to left-center field, but this is where Bryant currently finds himself.
To begin to illustrate that point, let’s start with a list. Here are the names of players since the year 2000 with at least 17 walks in their first 21 career games:
- Kosuke Fukudome (18)
- Carlos Santana (17)
- Adam Dunn (17)
- Andy LaRoche (17)
- Kris Bryant (17)
That’s it – five players. Not all of these hitters lit the world on fire, but they were/are known as high OBP/power guys (with the exception of Andy LaRoche). The bottom line is that this happens very rarely, and Bryant is being treated in a unique way usually reserved for a certain type of hitter.
Owen Watson writes for FanGraphs and The Hardball Times. Follow him on Twitter @ohwatson.
No wonder he finally hit one out. With the ball glowing like that, it must’ve been really easy to see.
Yes, I like Kris Bryant’s power and “eye” at the plate, but I love his demeanor and approach to the game. He seems as gracious and “old-school” as any modern player. He reminds me of a young George Brett.
the “pitches seen” gif on JABO… I literally said “wow” out loud.
No kidding! How do you make that gif? That is the most awesome pitchfx thing I’ve ever seen.
Oh, crap. Now I’m going to have to go give a pageview to Fox just to look at it.
You are right. Pageviews to Fox are as bad as it gets.
It’s PITCHf/x data that’s collected and visualized by R. I think they’re so cool. Here’s a good primer: http://cpsievert.github.io/pitchRx/
I respect the plate discipline Kris Bryant has and I believe its his best attribute as a hitter. Still, its hard to believe in a hitter who makes contact less than 65% of the time or who strikes out 33% of the time. In 2014, that would compare to the profile of Chris Carter or Chris Davis. Best case, I see Kris Bryant playing like a prime Adam Dunn with better defense. That’s actually a very solid player. However, I can just as easily see Bryant turn into the bad version of Ryan Howard. Pretty hard to find any successful players with a strike out rate at 33% for their career.
“Still, its hard to believe in a hitter who makes contact less than 65% of the time or who strikes out 33% of the time.”
Is it entirely appropriate to think he will be such a hitter? He’s that hitter with 103 ML PAs under his belt, to be sure, but it’s probably unreasonable to think that won’t improve. As a point of reference, Giancarlo Stanton put up a 31% K rate over his first 396 PAs and has settled in as a very good slugger who Ks in the high 20%s. So it’s both possible to cut even a very high K rate; it’s also possible to find success as a slugger when you K at a level untenable for a softer hitter.
That’s a fair point. However, Stanton has never finished a season with a contact rate lower than 65%. Stanton was also only 20 years old in his first season in majors so he had more room for growth.
Also, Bryant has a history of 65% contract rate as that’s what he did in the minors vs lesser pitchers. Hitting 65% in AAA despite having good plate discipline seems really worrisome to me.
Now, Bryant does have a good eye and great power so that will raise his floor to that of Mark Reynolds probably, but I’d say his ceiling is hindered by that contact rate. Going back to Stanton, his contact rate has basically fluctuated between 66% and 70%. I feel like making contact is not something you can change too much without making big changes to your swing or improving plate discipline (therefore only swinging at pitches in zone and easier to make contact on). Since Bryant already has good plate discipline, there just isn’t much growth for increased contact rate.
That being said, there is no doubt in my mind that Kris Bryant could have very similar seasons to Stanton. I just don’t believe he can sustain it for a long time. I think its only a matter of time before he drops off like Ryan Howard.
Great article, but I think http://www.fangraphs.com has a bad count of Kris Bryant’s RBIs. ESPN.com, MLB.com, and Baseball-Reference all list him as having 18 RBIs today on 5/12/2015 (before today’s game). You can trace the discrepancy back to 5/3/2015 in a game against the Brewers. Bryant hit a bloop to 2B Elian Herrera. E. Herrera dropped an over the shoulder catch and Bryant wound up at 2B; Anthony Rizzo scored from 3rd base. Not surprisingly, Herrera is currently listed as having 0 errors at 2B by http://www.fangraphs.com, but 1 error at 2B by the other websites. Let’s tighten that anus, guys.