JABO: Picking Three Franchise Players
Yesterday, Lyle Spencer of MLB.com published some fascinating results to a question he posed to “18 Major League executives and managers from 12 clubs in Arizona.” That question: “You are starting a franchise with a focus on the future, not one season. Which three players, excluding those on your own team, would be your top choices?”
Unsurprisingly, the top two vote getters in Spencer’s poll were the reigning MVPs of each league, Mike Trout and Clayton Kershaw. Trout’s the best player in baseball. Kershaw’s the best pitcher in baseball. In both cases, there isn’t really an argument about those designations. These guys are the cream of their crop, and both are still young enough to be considered at the beginning of their careers.
After those two, though, opinions started to diverge, with no player being mentioned by more than four of the sources polled; including Trout and Kershaw, 15 different players were named as a guy these front office members said they would want to build their team around. While I will admit that a few of the names on the list caused me to scratch my head, I figured that rather than criticizing other’s selections, I’d take a stab at this myself. So let’s try and answer this question from a data-driven perspective.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
I feel that Tulo at least deserves a mention, though the health problems clearly put him behind. But if you want to talk about Stanton, you should at least put Tulo’s name in the same sentence somewhere.
Tulo is 30, Stanton is 25.
Obviously age is a factor, but it’s impossible to say how much of a factor without knowing how long you get said player.
Do your 3 picks come along with the contracts/service time they’re actually at? Do you get them for the rest of their careers? Do you get 6 years of team control? Will the player be frozen in time as who he is right now?
I think this ambiguity is part of the reason you end up with some teams picking 22 year old prospects and some teams pick 32 year old veterans.
None of those questions puts Tulo ahead of anyone mentioned.
I disagree. Not only are there significant health issues, but he’s 30 years old. Stanton’s five years younger. That plays a huge factor in picking a franchise player.
Okay, from the Spencer article, one NL GM likes Adam Jones better than Mike Trout (no seriously). The NL Cactus league teams are the DBacks, Cubs, Reds, Rockies, Dodgers, Brewers, Padres and Giants. So it wasn’t RAJ. I’m going to safely assume that it wasn’t Hoyer or Zaidi. The question is who is it.
That can’t be true, can it? Why does this man have a job managing a major league baseball team? And why don’t the other teams take advantage of his stupidity? Why don’t the Orioles propose a trade of Jones to this GM in exchange for all of the prospects?
On an unrelated note: Bryce Harper is a good suggestion. Bryant is 23 years old and projected for a 3.1 WAR this year. Harper is 22 years old and projected for a 4.4 WAR this year. If not for the fact that he’s got 3 years in the majors under his belt, I think 22-year-old Bryce Harper would still be the best prospect in baseball.
They were not allowed to pick their own players. Perhaps that tells you who “had” to pick three people above Mike Trout.
Not if he was identified as a National League GM.
I think we can safely narrow it down to the DBacks, Reds, and Rockies. But seriously, wtf?
Dave Stewart 100% certain of this
I’m guessing contracts/team control weren’t weighted too heavily in this scenario.
I don’t know that I’d build around 3 OFers and leave the rest of my team untouched. Seems too risky. I’d have atleast 1 infielder in there.
I would have taken Anthony Rendon third.
I took it as ranking who would be your first choice not getting all three.
There are just a lot of really good young players in the game today.
Rizzo and Goldschmidt didn’t even get mentions. Nor did Puig, Heyward, or Rendon. Heck even Starling Marte could be a core franchise player on another team and he can easily be slotted into center.
What a time to be alive!
Marte is the best CF on the Pirates
*Edit I should say defensively
Trout is a lock.
How interchangeable are Kershaw and, say, Felix Hernandez? Hernandez is a couple years older than Kershaw, but he’s still in the prime of his career. I could go either way on this one.
For the third spot, I would either choose whoever I didn’t pick for the 2nd option and have the best lefty-righty 1-2 combination in baseball, or I’d go with McCutchen, if only because of the reasons Dave outlined, and the fact that I really, really like him.
I was a bit surprised that Felix wasn’t mentioned by any of them. I don’t see him as that far behind Kershaw either.
I don’t really agree with that. Their career numbers are comparable, but that is largely because Felix was a good pitcher at ages 19 and 20, while Kershaw was a mediocre pitcher at age 20. So going by age-adjusted stats, they look similar. I’m not taking any credit away from Felix for this, it’s very impressive.
However, If we’re talking about who you would start a franchise with right now, I don’t think it’s particularly close. Since Kershaw really broke out in 2011, he is 9 RA/9 WAR ahead of the next best pitcher. 9. And if anything he’s gotten a bit better since 2011.
If it appears that I’m selecting for the time period that makes Kershaw look the best, that’s because right now is the time that Kershaw looks the best.
Well said Bip, especially that last Jeff Sullivan-esque sentence 😉
I’d still put Felix right around Bumgarner but ahead of Kluber or Fernandez, at least if contract status wasn’t an issue. I’m just surprised his name didn’t come up at all in the GM poll. It’s not like the Orioles wouldn’t jump at the chance to trade Adam Jones for Felix straight up…
Surprised that Puig wasn’t even mentioned.
So how does Rendon not get a mention? 6.6 WAR as a 24 year old and the projection systems like him to have at least another 4+ WAR season. All that, and he’s under team control through 2019 at a reasonable rate, unlike Stanton or Posey, who, although extremely talented, are not cheap.
Neither this article nor Lyle Spencer’s mentions anything about contracts, were they not considered for this exercise? Because the answer to that question completely changes the approach.
Based on the answers, I would think it’s pretty clear that contracts aren’t included. After all, who would take Kershaw at $30MM/year over someone like Harvey, Kluber or Fernandez at close to the league minimum for the next couple years?
I think Machado deserved a mention. He is 22,was the best defensive player in baseball in 2013, and has been worth more WAR in 70 less games.
He has a terrific future ahead of him, and every team in the league would love to have him in their organization. But if I’m starting a team, 3rd base defense isn’t my top priority. He has a career wRC+ of 104, an OPS under .750, and isn’t great on the bases. Half of his value comes from 3rd base defense.
This isn’t meant to take away from him – if the list was expanded a little, he’d be mentioned – but I wouldn’t expect any GM to put him in their top 3. WAR being equal, I’d expect a GM to list a monster bat over a monster glove.
The lack of specificity makes this poll less meaningful. For instance, it seemed like one guy thought he was supposed to pick prospects. Honestly, I don’t know what this was supposed to be. I assumed it was getting the guy for the next several years absent any salary differences. I also think it was top three choices, not pick three guys, but I could be wrong.
It doesn’t really matter, though, I’d pick Trout, Mike, and that outfielder in Anaheim.
I am taking Kershaw every day of the week as a GM. You really can’t worry about your franchise beyond five years, I want Kershaw’s next five years on my team over every other player in the game.