JABO: Rebuilding the Tigers… Or Not
Two weeks ago, the Detroit Tigers essentially fired long-time General Manager Dave Dombrowski. Despite four consecutive division titles — a streak that will end this year, of course — and a lot of success over the last decade, Dombrowski was unable to bring a championship back to Motown, and with their window closing and the team struggling, ownership decided to make a change. Now, it will be up to new GM Al Avila to improve a roster that is starting to show signs of age and decline.
The first step in retooling is to determine what you have. The 2011-2015 Tigers were known for great offenses, great starting pitching, and terrible bullpens and defenses that let down their star hitters and pitchers at the worst times. During their best years, they scored runs like few others, and their starting pitching was as good as it gets, but aging and departed stars have taken their toll, so the 2016 Tigers will be missing some key components that formed that foundation. Max Scherzer is now in DC participating in the the tire fire that is the Nationals season, David Price is busy attempting to free Blue Jays fans from two decades plus of a playoff-less existence, and Yoenis Cespedes now spends his time demonstrating to Mets fans that when you hit a ball with a bat sometimes it can go far.
Scherzer is signed long term in Washington and Cespedes and Price are going to command hundreds of millions of dollars on the free agent market, making a return to Detroit questionable at best. To offset some of the decline in pitching, the Tigers improved their defense this season mostly by adding a healthy Jose Iglesias. This is no longer a team that betrays it’s pitching staff with poor fielding; these days, they’re just giving up runs because their arms aren’t that good anymore.
As for finances, the Tigers have $111.8 million committed to seven players next season, only five of whom will be on the club (they owe the Rangers $6 million of Prince Fielder’s contract and Joe Nathan will get a $1 million buy-out on his $10 million option). What’s more, the Tigers are going to have to pay J.D. Martinez a big raise in arbitration, and role players like Jose Iglesias will also require above-the-minimum salaries as first-time arbitration qualifiers. Just keeping those players will cost another roughly $15-$20 million, so they could be on the hook for about $130 million to just 10 players. This means spending $25-30 million on a top tier free agent is going to be very difficult unless they are about to dramatically expand their payroll.
So the Tigers need to improve their bullpen, strengthen their rotation, and adding a bat who can also field some wouldn’t be a bad idea either. The question is, can they afford to acquire those assets on the free agent market, or do they need to be more circumspect and move assets around through trade?
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Tigers are hot! Going to make the playoffs!
If you own a team and are 86 years old, you are all in.
all in on stem cell research.
You’re the 1 billionth person to make this observation!
For this incredible insight you have won absolutely nothing.
If the Tigers bring back the existing roster, after arby raises and subbing in minor leaguers into the open spots (ie. RH-hitting outfielders to platoon with Gose & Collins, Norris, Fulmer and Greene/Boyd taking the three SP slots), I’m coming up with a payroll of $135M. Payroll was just shy of $175M for this season (before shedding Price/Cespedes/Soria). I see the possibility of $40M to spend, ideally on two SPs and a closer. Would love to have Cespedes back, but can’t see it happening given the payroll limitations and the state of the rotation. It’s feasible that we could see something like Rajai Davis, two of Iwakuma/Anderson/Guthrie/Gallardo & one of Soria/Clippard added to the team for $40M, and it challenges for the Central again behind a healthy Cabrera, V-Mart, Verlander & Sanchez.
need way more bullpen help than just a closer. anderson and gallardo and most likely iwakuma are looking at 3 year deals. v-mart very well may be cooked, remember he started off as a catcher, they generally hit the age curve harder. i want to believe in them, i just don’t think they can attack it the way you say, i think they should just throw 15 mil on the bullpen the way the astro’s did, sign one starter to upgrade and roll with verlander, sanchez, (f.a. starter) and norris, boyd/fulmer/ whoever else emerges.
Yeah, depends on who you trust the most, I guess. I’d feel best if Fulmer/Boyd/Norris were absolutely ridiculous and had to be on the major league roster, rather than it being a foregone conclusion that they had to start for us in 2016. I trust Wilson, Hardy and Rondon – adding Soria to that would make me comfortable enough will the bullpen – but I might be in the minority on that.
I think V-Mart will be back to being a very good hitter again next year. I’m excited to see Dean Green get a chance if V-Mart goes down for any length of time.
Yoenis Cespedes formed part of the “foundation” of the best years of the Tigers? He was with the team for four months. Price was there for one full season between 2014-15.
Also, “role player” is a little harsh for a Gold Glove shortstop with a .729 OPS.
With the trades, the Tigers system improved a great deal. They are coming off a very solid draft, and have other young pieces that have improved. They can improve a great deal from what they have, and add a couple of free agent relievers for depth.
I would be much more interested in a “here’s what their current projects to be next year. Here’s how many more wins they need to make the postseason. Here’s how much money they have to spend. Let’s try to find them those wjns!”
This article is just “they have some good players (no numbers) making a lot of money. They can’t sign the top free agents. They don’t have prospects to trade. Should they sell their pieces? I don’t know, maybe.” That’s not substantive.
I’m interested in everyone’s opinions on which guy has a better future, short and long term, between Matt Boyd and Michael Fulmer.
The Tigers have cost controlled players at C, 3B, SS, CF, LF, RF and 3 of their starting pitchers. So yeah they have a lot of money tied up in Verlander, Cabrera, Martinez and Sanchez, but majority of their team is on cheap contracts otherwise. And Verlander is back to throwing 97mph darts and wipe out sliders, so he’s been good and his contract suddenly doesn’t look so horrible, not when the RIck Porcello’s of the world are making 20 million a year.
Cabrera has been lethal all year, so they basically just have Sanchez and Martinez in terms of bad contracts. And aside from them 2, everybody else on the team is young cost controlled or is worth their contract(Kinsler).