JABO: The AL’s Right-Handed Problem
When Alex Gordon got injured on Wednesday night, it was a big blow to the Royals, who have lost their best player for the next two months of the season. But with Detroit struggling — and having lost Miguel Cabrera themselves just a week earlier — and the Twins probably unable to keep playing as well as they have in the first half, the Royals will probably still be able to hold on to their division lead, even with Gordon on the shelf for the next few months.
However, Gordon’s injury does create a pretty significant hole on the American League All-Star roster. No, it’s not that Gordon is really that much better than Adam Jones, who will replace Gordon in the starting line-up, but that Gordon brought one unique skill to the American League’s offense: he bats left-handed.
With Jones replacing Gordon, all nine American League starters will bat from the right side of the plate. Let’s take a guess at what Ned Yost’s starting line-up might look like.
1. Lorenzo Cain, LF
2. Jose Altuve, 2B
3. Mike Trout, CF
4. Albert Pujols, 1B
5. Josh Donaldson, 3B
6. Nelson Cruz, DH
7. Adam Jones, RF
8. Salvador Perez, C
9. Alcides Escobar, SS
There are some pretty great hitters in the middle of that line-up, and guys like Trout have historically hit right-handed pitching just fine. But at both the top and bottom of the order, you have some guys on the team primarily due to their defensive abilities, and hitting right-handed pitching isn’t really their strong suit.
And the National League has loaded up on right-handed pitching. Of the 13 pitchers already on the NL roster, 11 of them are right-handed; only Madison Bumgarner and Aroldis Chapman are lefty hurlers on the NL’s squad. Johnny Cueto is likely to join that group via the Final Vote, which would push the NL up to 12 RHPs, many of whom are death to right-handed hitting.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Much ado about nothing. Now if this were a lineup of lefties v lefty pitchers, then we would have a story.
And RH “lefty killers?” Come on, Dave. You know that there is essentially no such thing – that most of the observed extreme splits for RHB are random fluctuations.
For example, an average RHB has around a true 27 point wOBA platoon differential (and 1.09 ratio). The most extreme non-split guys like Trout and Pujols still have a 19 point differential (true or projected, not actual). The most extreme guys with large splits have a projected differential of around 36 points. Donaldson, the player that you point out as having extremely large splits, has an estimated wOBA differential of 29, only 2 points more than the average RHB! The SD of RHB platoon talent is around 4 points (differential). For LHB, it is around twice that.
In addition, most great RH starting pitchers have relatively small platoon splits, so that will further reduce the NL’s RH/RH advantage. For example, Wacha has NO estimated true platoon split, Burnett almost none, and Miller and Cole a small split. And if and when Bumgarner comes in, the RHB will have a huge advantage as he has a huge estimated true split.
So, again, much ado about nothing.
They’re still at a disadvantage. Even if it’s not as big as Dave is suggesting, having 9 RH bats in the lineup against an army of RHP is a disadvantage. Unless Bochy screws up, the NL should have the platoon advantage for virtually every at bat of the game, unless Tex is up as he’s a switch hitter. And none of the hitters will face a pitcher that has to go multiple times through the order, meaning that the starters can throw harder than they normally do. That’s not an insignificant advantage for the NL.
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“And none of the hitters will face a pitcher that has to go multiple times through the order, meaning that the starters can throw harder than they normally do. That’s not an insignificant advantage for the NL.”
I don’t understand that. Only the NL pitchers will go through the order one time, but not the AL pitchers? Yes, both teams will have starters who only pitch 1 or 2 innings (1 time through lineup, thus reducing the offensive output of both teams).
I simulated the NL starters versus the AL starters with Scherzer starting for the NL and Felix for the AL (and both pitchers pitching the usual 6-7 innings, which is not what happens in the ASG of course). The NL is a slight favorite, maybe 11-10.
With Bumgarner pitching for the NL (and again pitching 6-7 innings), the AL is favored by around 6-5.
So basically this game is pick-em (50/50) even with this “gigantic advantage for the NL because of the all AL RH starting lineup and mostly RHP for the NL.”
Of course, you can’t really simulate this game with any kind of accuracy since players come in and out of the lineup all game.
Again, nothing here other than don’t pitch a lefty with large splits versus an all RH lineup.
Obviously both sets of pitchers won’t go multiple times through the order, but the point is a harder than usual throwing RHP against an all RH lineup has a bigger advantage than an AL squad that won’t have the platoon advantage for every match up.
Cain in LF and Trout in CF? Really?
“but the point is a RHP against an all RH lineup has a bigger advantage than an AL squad that won’t have the platoon advantage for every match up.”
Fixed.
“Harder than usual” is completely irrelevant to the discussion of which team has “the advantage” since both teams’ starting pitchers will throw “harder than usual.”
It’s not like a harder throwing pitcher versus a same-side batter is more advantageous than a harder throwing pitcher versus an opp side batter (as far as I know).
In any case, we all know about platoon advantages. That is not news. News would be that the AL is going to be a big dog because it will mostly be RHB versus RHP. They are not going to be a big dog, AFAIK. Maybe a small one. Maybe not. And, as I indicated, RH v RH is not a big deal. RHB face mostly RHP anyway. LHB v LHP IS a big deal, especially if the pitcher has a large platoon advantage, like Bumgarner.
If Bumgarner were facing an all-LHB lineup, that would be a big deal. This is not. Not even a small deal. IMO, that is.
Plus, Yost bats Gordon 6th versus RHP every day, so he must not be a very good hitter anyway. 😉
Man, Royals fans must feel really silly now for not thinking about platoon advantage before voting
Over a large number of games the all RH lineup may be an issue, but this is one game and most of the players will be out of the game after 3-4 innings anyways, so its basically half a game.
I don’t see why you keep bringing up Teixeira as a lefty against left handed pitching. He’s a switch hitter who is actually better against left handers than right handers.
The Vegas line for the ASG is NL favored 52/48. As I said, this was much ado about nothing.