Jeff Sullivan FanGraphs Chat — 7/10/15

July 10, 2015

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Hey guys, sorry, it’s bad timing for a chat in the middle of a move. But I’ll do what I can!

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: I’ll never be this late again in my life!

9:18	Jeff Sullivan: Now for the baseball

9:19	Comment From Matt would you trade Desmond for Samardjza? keeper league

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: Reminder that I don’t deal well with fantasy questions! Because I don’t know how to answer them, because I don’t play.

9:19	Comment From brad If you could ban one type of stat from baseball broadcasts forever, what would it be?

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: wins for pitchers, game-winning RBI or whatever for hitters

9:19	Jeff Sullivan: but to be honest I don’t really pay attention anymore to the stats being displayed. so I don’t know what the norm is these days

9:19	Comment From The Dude Abides Have you ever argued with your boss mid meeting?

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: I wouldn’t say argue, but I have openly expressed skepticism that such meetings are necessary and productive

9:20	Jeff Sullivan: On a related note, the FanGraphs staff no longer has weekly Skype meetings

9:21	Comment From Jaack Who is the worst player you have ever seen in the majors?

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Anthony Vasquez

9:21	Jeff Sullivan: Unless you count Adam Greenberg? He was probably very bad

9:22	Comment From Xolo What team is going to give the most away at the trade deadline and do you think it’ll be worth it?

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: I could see the Padres turning ultra-aggressive, selling more than the Phillies and Reds. The latter two will have the best pieces for sale, but the Padres could drown them in volume

9:22	Jeff Sullivan: If the Padres go that way, they should clear a good amount of salary. I don’t think they’ll get great prospects back, however

9:23	Comment From Mike H What sort of return do you think the A’s could get for a package of both Kazmir and Zobrist?

9:23	Jeff Sullivan: The advantage of selling Zobrist is that he could help almost literally every single team in the race at the moment so there’ll be a lot of demand

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Kazmir’s price is down some on account of his little aches and pains, but still, for those two, you’re looking at two or three close-to-ready young players

9:24	Jeff Sullivan: Expect the A’s to, once more, focus on players who can help as soon as next season

9:26	Comment From Bret A package for both Mat Latos and Dan Haren shouldn’t cost a crazy amount, should it? And it would probably be a major upgrade for Toronto’s rotation.

9:27	Jeff Sullivan: Well, there’s the matter of Haren’s willingness. Not that he has no-trade rights, and he did ultimately end up pitching for Miami, but the Jays might not want to pick up a pitcher who isn’t delighted by the idea of pitching in Toronto

9:29

Jeff Sullivan: Anyway, Haren wouldn’t come free, because the Marlins aren’t paying him anything. There’s no salary to take on, giving him good value. Latos has been better lately, so he’s looking like an asset. We’re not talking Hoffman or Norris here, but the Jays wouldn’t be able to get these arms for dirt cheap

9:30	Comment From MSW Jean Segura, an upgrade for the Mets? DC doesn’t think so, but at least maybe has some upside?

9:32

Jeff Sullivan: There’s some upside there, and the Mets clearly want to feel more stable about their middle-infield defense. Segura obviously is light on hitting, but he’s more defensively reliable, a true shortstop the likes of which doesn’t exist in the Mets’ upper levels. It wouldn’t be a franchise-changer, but Segura would at least address *one* question

9:33	Jeff Sullivan: You’d like to see them set their sights higher, but maybe they see this as a potential buy-low — when Segura was 23, he was worth 3.5 wins. And the shortstop market is kind of weak

9:33	Comment From Lukas Are the Mets too injured for buying to be worthwhile? Or should they try to take advantage of a weak NL East this season?

9:34

Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it makes sense for them to make a huge splash, but then I’m not sure what splashes are available. Absolutely no harm in little upgrades. If they could actually get Ben Zobrist somehow, that’d be huge. They almost have enough to make the playoffs. Might as well navigate the deadline without giving away any of the crucial bits

9:34	Comment From JCA CPA CA How much value would a replacement level player have if he would face 10 pitches per AB?

9:35

Jeff Sullivan: His value would be pretty damn low. It wouldn’t be exactly replacement-level, because he *would* tire out the other starting pitcher, but bullpens these days are so good there’s not a distinct advantage from getting to them. He’d help within series, tiring bullpens out slightly more than an average player, but you’re still talking about a team weakness

9:36	Comment From John What can the Twins expect from Ervin Santana the remainder of the season?

9:37	Jeff Sullivan: A No. 3 in a rotation full of No. 3 and No. 4 starters

9:38	Comment From Jim Mike Trout is currently at 34.6 career WAR. “Gun to your head,” what would his career WAR look like if he had come up through the Mariners system?

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: Oh man

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: This question is everything

9:38	Jeff Sullivan: On the one hand, Trout seems like the kind of talent that no one could conceivably ruin. On the other hand, Dustin Ackley! I’ll say 25.

9:40	Comment From FTF Should the Indians go for it with a trade ? Do they have any valuable minor asset to bring the player that they need ? (a CF or 3B I assume…)

9:41

Jeff Sullivan: The Indians are close enough and good enough to be interesting, but they’re far back enough that I don’t think they should cough up much talent for the short-term. Not even clear how much they need — they project out to be successful. The rest of the way, the Indians have the third-best projected winning percentage in the AL

9:42	Comment From Michael Bluth So, Kazmir for Singleton, Zobrist and Chavez for (Starlin) Castro and Edwards. If the A’s are selling, why not land some nice, measured contracts?

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Whatever argument I could make against those, I can’t make quickly off the top of my head. No matter how realistic they might be, I think that’s a decent approximate of what Beane might be looking for

9:43	Jeff Sullivan: Possible he wouldn’t want to get himself tied up in Castro’s long-term deal, but you can understand why he’d be an appealing buy-low

9:44

Comment From mtsw
I get that the pre-season projections are more predictive going forward than Pythag, W/L or BaseRuns, but now that the Red Sox look like they’re hanging in the race again, can we at least be spared the idea that they’ve played well so far? Given how the teams have played they’re fortunate not to be FURTHER behind the Blue Jays and Orioles, whatever the undelying amount of talent on the teams are.

9:44	Jeff Sullivan: Who’s arguing the Red Sox have played well?

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: The Sox are 41-45. BaseRuns has them at 40-46. That’s bad

9:45	Comment From UnluckiestChatteroftheMillenium Will the Depth Charts be updated at some point (maybe after the trade deadline)? It seems like every player I look up has already exceeded their projected ABs.

9:45	Jeff Sullivan: Those are projections over the rest of the season

9:46	Comment From Jim Will the NL be pretty boring for the next three months since we already know how the playoffs will lineup?

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: No, because we don’t

9:46	Jeff Sullivan: Even the freakin Diamondbacks are right at .500

9:47	Jeff Sullivan: The odds are obviously strong for the five teams currently in playoff positions, but one of them will probably slip up or someone else will get hot

9:48	Comment From Cincinnati Kid Will Puig figure it out or is he just a good OBP guy and nothing else?

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: He’s plenty else

9:48	Jeff Sullivan: Yasiel Puig is frustrating, but he’s also very very good

9:49	Comment From HappyFunBall If you were the Nationals, would you be willing to trade Desmond if a decent offer came around? If you were another MLB exec, what sort of offer would you make for half a season of Ian Desmond?

9:49	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Trea Turner was recently bumped up to Triple-A

9:50

Jeff Sullivan: But I still don’t see this as a trading situation. Contending teams are unlikely to take a shot on someone with Desmond’s numbers. And the Nationals are unlikely to further deplete their depth by selling low on a rental shortstop. Right now this seems like a situation where the Nats might opt to extend a qualifying offer

9:52	Comment From david Why haven’t Mets put Matz on the DL already.

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: maybe they’re still deciding who to bring up

9:52	Comment From adam what two man team in FG would have the best shot on Naked & Afraid?

9:52	Jeff Sullivan: I don’t know what that is so I’ll say Carson by himself

9:53	Comment From Sonny Grays Flulike Symptoms Any predictions on where Zobrist, Kazmir, Clippard, and Chavez end up?

9:53	Jeff Sullivan: Not that these are worth anything, but let’s see:

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Zobrist: Cubs

9:54	Jeff Sullivan: Kazmir: Pirates

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Clippard: Nationals!

9:55	Jeff Sullivan: Chavez: Astros?

9:58	Comment From JCA CPA CA With the specialization of bullpen match ups, switch hitters would have more value? So if there are 3 free agents who all hit the same, how much more money would a Switch Hitter get compared to the lefty or righty?

9:58	Jeff Sullivan: It’s not a perfect comparison, but Victor Martinez just got $10 million more than Nelson Cruz

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Kendrys Morales got multiple years despite a godawful 2014

9:59	Jeff Sullivan: Of course, Michael Morse got a similar deal