JABO: The Evolution of Mookie Betts
A year ago, Mookie Betts was one of the more divisive young talents in baseball. Mostly overlooked by scouts due to his diminutive size and lack of power — he was a 5th round pick by the Red Sox back in the 2011 draft — Betts ended up crushing minor league pitching in 2013 and 2014 to put himself on the prospect map, though opinions about his future still varied pretty widely. Over at FanGraphs, we were pretty big fans based on his overall value skillset, but our enthusiasm was met with a lot of skepticism over the perceived lack of upside from a small contact hitter who generated a lot of value by drawing walks against inferior pitching.
And those concerns were somewhat legitimate. When I first wrote about Betts on JABO a year ago — suggesting that the Red Sox keep him rather than get tempted into dealing him for a frontline starting pitcher — I developed a list of offensive comparisons based on his swing and contact rates. There were some good names on that list, including Joe Mauer and Matt Carpenter. There was also the Tony Gwynn that doesn’t make for an optimistic comparison, along with Craig Counsell, Daric Barton, and Sam Fuld. The low swing rate/high contact types almost universally didn’t hit for power, and guys Betts’ size often end up being defensive-oriented players who try to slap enough singles and steal enough bases to avoid being an offensive hole.
Well, with his first full season nearly in the books, I think it’s safe to say at this point that Betts is not a slap hitter. Last night, he launched his 16th home run of the season, and perhaps more impressively, hit his 42nd double. Add in the 8 triples and Betts now has 66 extra base hits on the year, the same number of XBH as Nelson Cruz (who leads the majors in home runs) and Jose Abreu, and ahead of Cubs slugging rookie Kris Bryant, who was the consensus top prospect in baseball in large part because of his prodigious power. And that puts him five extra base hits ahead of Andrew McCutchen, who became the popular comparison this spring, when Betts was torching the Grapefruit League in Spring Training.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
It’s funny, but Mookie had 16 HR and 64 XBH last year between the minors and majors. In 2013 he had 15 HR and 55 XBH in the minors.
The most impressive part, to me, is that he’s kept up the pace at the major-league level, after pitchers have gotten a chance to adapt to him. The power isn’t all that surprising given his track record as a pro.
Mookie is just that good. Pitchers adapt to him, and Mookie figures it out and punishes them for it. In short order.
He’ll never hit 50 home runs in a season. Beyond that, I don’t think you can put any limits on what he might do.
Mark it down, folks. Fengraphs has returned!
Several weeks of the Red Sox playing great has justified Fengraphs shoving the Red Sox down our gullets yet again.
A few weeks before the Red Sox game Fengraphs adequate support our awesome new Red Juice esophagus.
Bet that Red Juice pairs splendidly with some of Jeff’s salmon!
Red Sox fan or not, if you don’t enjoy watching Mookie Betts play you’re not a baseball fan.
I’m fascinated by the psychology of people who are forced to read these articles that they hate so much.
Actually, now that I think about it, Red Sox articles do tend to get a lot of comments, which would spawn more articles. Your comment is only contributing to your own misery!
is it any different than the psychology of all of us who feel the need to reply to the comments with large red numbers?
I think it is, actually. The ‘thumbs down’ vote can just be simple disagreement with a comment. Disagreement is what the internet is all about.
The person complaining about the article even being written knew very well what they were going to read and then masochist that they are, subjected themselves to it anyway. The downvoter (or upvoter) has (or shouldn’t have) such expectation about a comments’ content.
I think it’s sort of like the difference between someone eating a doughnut and saying “That doughnut wasn’t very good” versus “Doughnuts shouldn’t exist, even though there’s plenty of other food I can eat, and I know very well I don’t have to eat them, and lots of other people like them.”
Just so you guys know, there is a real MjwW Who is an excellent blue jays blogger.
this guy here is a copycat trying to ruin his online reputation.
when you see stupidity posted under this name, understand that it’s a pure troll account.
Yes, it’s clear now that Fangraphs has gerrymandered the WAR formula to make Mookie Betts LOOK like a star which is why BRef only has him at….oh, almost 1.5 WAR higher. Oops.
Yeah, fangraphs is really shoving these boston articles down our throats. Like that one about Addison Russel, or the one about Zack Greinke, or the one about Anthony Rizzo, or the one about Brian Dozier, or the one about Kyle Hendricks.
Well, Rizzo WAS a Red Sox farmhand…
This comment is so stupid that it’s making me angry.
Like I’m legitimately upset from reading such an asinine comment.
When you feel so mad, that you want to roar. Take a deep breath, and count to four.
I’m literally angry right now.
I wonder if the increased aggressiveness and attacking outside patches was an organizational philosophy this year. The red sox seemed less patient this year and bogaerts has had a similar trend of attacking outside pitches. This could extend beyond just them and to the rest of the team.
Early in the season, pitchers seemed to realize that Mookie was trying to work the count against him, and started pitching very aggressively against him. That’s one reason his batting average was down early in the season (that, and some BABIP bad luck). Mookie figured it out, and starting attacking the ball early in the count, even on pitches a little off the plate. It was something a lot of Sox fans noticed.
Xander just totally made over his hitting approach in the off-season. Mookie’s still using the same approach, but he adjusted to the way pitchers were going after him.
Yep, they are first ball swinging if they figure it’s a cookie, except for Pedroia and Holt, who will swing first pitch later in the game. The reasons that made the old philosophy work for the Red Sox had changed–driving out the starter to get to the bullpen was no longer a good strategy, and their old approach was hurting them. Plus their hitters were no longer very good.
Yes, drafting guys like this is one of the advantages you have when you realize that (MILB track record of power + height under the magical 6’0″) does NOT equal no power. Maybe one day people will realize that minor league statistics mean more than a player’s height and projection. If Mookie Betts was 6’5″ and had the same profile, he would have a top 5 prospect for since his MILB breakout. Let us repeat this for clarity: “Just because a guy is under 6’0″, it doesn’t mean he has less upside than someone over 6’0”.
“(MILB track record of power + height under the magical 6’0?) does NOT equal no power”
and
“Just because a guy is under 6’0?, it doesn’t mean he has less upside than someone over 6’0”
are very different statements.
I think the man, the myth, the legend himself – Jose Altuve – has helped break that door down more than Mookie but Mookie is certainly helping the cause.
Agree mostly, although Betts is even more in the stereotype because of his power being one of his loudest tools. I just don’t understand when you look at how many all-time greats were under 6’0″ that this line of thinking continues.
Well, a lot of those all-time greats were playing against other smaller players. The whole league is bigger now. I’m not saying height is everything, but if you have 2 guys with exactly the same skillsets, but one is bigger and stronger, the bigger and stronger guy is probably going to be better. Maybe a lot better, but it’s hard to say exactly how much.
Doesn’t mean a smaller guy can’t be great these days, but you don’t see too many HR champs under 6′.
How the hell is a guy over 6’0″ automatically stronger than a guy that is under 6’0″? You are changing the argument entirely. Maybe if Mookie had a terrible average exit velocity and a slow bat I could agree with this, but you just threw that out there to make your argument more valid. The ability to hit for power has alot more to do with bat speed and mechanics than it does how heavy a player is, and absolutely nothing to do with how tall a player is.
I’m just glad I could open the door for height-challenged players who can draw walks when needed
Take this guy, generously listed as 5’9″ and 170 lbs:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1014313&position=OF
Note – most of his HR total came during an extreme pitchers era while playing in the old Astrodome, an extreme pitchers park.
The taller guy doesn’t have to be stronger, that was just part of the example I was using. Simmer down.
Taller people can get physically stronger than a person who is the same in every way except height. The muscles on a taller person are bigger. That’s just how biology works.
I think hitting for power does have more to do with batspeed and mechanics and stuff, but on average stronger guys can attain faster batspeed.
Of course, averages are not necessarily applicable on the individual level, so I don’t even really think I’m disagreeing with you.
Love this kid.
The one red sox kid that wasn’t overrated. My one concern with him was whether he could be a legit plus defender and so far it looks like he can be. Not sure how much upside there is left to tap but he’s already a helluva player.
I think there’s plenty – he can become an elite base stealer with his speed and work ethic, and I see no reason why he can’t increase his HR total north of 20.
119 wRC+
I mean that is great given age but this hasn’t been some magical season.
We get it you guys hyped him first. Kudos. Move on.
In the same company as Adam Eaton. Mitch Moreland and Yunel Escobar. I suppose he out names them and out Boston Strongs them.
He’s going to have a 5 WAR in his first full season of MLB playing a new position. I’d say Mookie is worthy of praise.
Not to mention outWAR them by a significant margin.
He should be getting at least 1-2 “bonus” WAR for that catch he made saving Rich Hill’s shutout. Best play this year by anyone not named Kiermaier or Simmons.
Has a 132 wRC+ in the second half. Could mean greater things to come. He’s almost 23 so he has some time to increase his value.
i hear ya man. 5 WAR seasons from 22 year olds with 200 prior career PAs certainly arent magical or anything. i mean they pretty much happen all the time. everybody has the combination of very good offense, decent defense and elite baserunning. epsecially at age 22. move along people, nothing to see here…
Cutch’s wRC+ at 22 = 122, not so far off.
Worst BABIP since 2012 in a couple of small sample sizes, 5 WAR, 5th best CF by WRC+, 22 years old. Praise is deserved. Pretty sure most guys don’t have their best season as a 22yr old rookie.
For a big bucket of cold water to throw on this coronation, take a look at Mookie’s spray charts. Through 844 major league plate appearances, Betts has yet to hit one home run to anything other than left-field, with 16 of his 21 major league homers essentially being down the left-field line.
Yeah, you can only get away with that about 70 times.
Great point, but while Dozier shows that it’s possible with such an approach, doesn’t it also show how rarely it works?
Do we know if that’s rare or not? I would imagine it’s actually pretty common.
It’s common for a majority of a player’s home runs to be pulled. It’s incredibly uncommon for a player to regularly hit double digit home runs without having any that aren’t pulled.
I think this was a conscious decision of his to be aggressive and turn on inside pitches, especially at Fenway where pulled liners and fly balls have a very high BABIP (when they stay in the park).
As the book on him evolves and pitchers re-adapt, it will be interesting to see what adjustments he makes. So far he looks like one of the sharpest young players out there, and my bet is that he’ll adjust as needed.
BTW – interesting how Dozier’s 2011 minor-league numbers look like Mookie’s stats at a similar level:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=9810&position=2B
That would make sense, especially given that he has been much more productive at the plate for home games than away games. Someone with Betts’ quality of contact is going to hit home runs, but the steroid era taught us just how much muscle mass matters for that as well. I believe it’s more likely that he hits 10-14 home runs next year than 15-19, and if he ends up at one extreme or the other, that he’s more likely to be under ten than over twenty. Betts’ wiry frame simply isn’t conducive to power, which is why he hasn’t hit home runs to center or the opposite field.
Kyle Seager says “Hello!”
This was more like a cup of lukewarm water.
Seeing all the Red Sox games, I do not understand why 90% of the pitches to Betts are not away, with the 10% for show and effect. Yes, I see him whiff occasionally on the inside slider from the lefthander and fastball from a right hander, but the question stands–why do they give him all those opportunities to hit and hit for power? I love Betts but as things stand now he should not be making the impact that he is.
Many players lose their game trying to hit lead off. Many a Red Sox has. Betts learned to handle it in his first full year while playing out of position. He’ll be fine, but the pitching approach I don’t understand. Betts can’t hurt you outside just yet.
Can’t argue with this too much, at least for pitchers with average or better command. If nothing else, this might force him to work on going the other way more often like Bogaerts has this year.
Typical FenGraphs pro-Sox bias causing Mookie to hit another dinger tonight. Nice try guys, I’m still not buying it.
typical fangraphs commenter, underrating the Red Sox. He actually has 2
:^)
Betts now has 18hrs a .192 ISO a .486 slg% and a .828 OPS
“Wow, that is a nice slash line. Wait a minute, how tall is he again? 5’9″? No way he can keep this up, his upside is still limited. The 3B’s, low K%, HR’s, 40+ 2B’s, excellent average, excellent baserunning, high baseball IQ, and very good defense at a position that was new to him will not continue. The pitchers just have not figured him out yet.”
And he does a twenty second Rubik cube.