Addison Russell Is This Year’s Other Guy

Most Major League Baseball fans are familiar with Addison Russell. The Oakland A’s selected Russell in the first round of the 2012 draft, and he became one of the best prospects in all of baseball before his trade to the Chicago Cubs for Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel at the trade deadline last season. His call-up in April was a bit of a surprise, and despite his prospect record, his mediocre batting line, higher profile teammates, and a pair of rookie shortstops in the American League have left Russell in relative anonymity. Russell’s play has not forced anyone to take notice, but playing a full season at his age is an accomplishment in and of itself.

While most people know Russell, it would be fair if they weren’t keeping up with his progress this season. A 21-year-old top prospect would normally receive a lot of attention, but recording his own debut within days of teammate, uber-prospect and likely Rookie-of-the-Year in Kris Bryant rendered Russell’s arrival less newsworthy. Russell has also been overshadowed by a pair of 21-year-old shortstops from the American League, as Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor have both exceeded a 130 wRC+ in over 400 plate appearances. Russell, on the other hand, has yet to distinguish himself at the plate: he’s hitting just .237/.301/.384 with an 87 wRC+ this year, and has struck out in more than 28% of his plate appearances.

Russell announced himself as a top prospect just one year out of high school as a 19-year-old in High-A Stockton in 2013, slashing .275/.377/.508 that season with 17 home runs in over 500 plate appearances. A hamstring injury limited him to 68 games in 2014, but that did little to dampen his stock as a prospect, with Kiley McDaniel ranking him third in all of baseball before this season. Of Russell, McDaniel wrote: “He’s got big bat speed, a solid approach, great plate coverage and the raw power to punish mistakes.” McDaniel indicated that Russell could stay at shortstop for the next five to seven seasons, and figured he would spend most of 2015 at Triple-A.

When Russell was promoted on the heels of Bryant’s own promotion it came as a bit of a surprise. The Cubs already had a starting shortstop in Starlin Castro, and though Russell was highly regarded, he was just 21 years old and had recorded only 321 plate appearances above Single-A. The projections for Russell were modest: ZiPS giving him a .243/.302/.404 line. Joe Maddon slotted Russell in the ninth spot in the order and gave him most of his playing time at second base. At the plate, the results were not positive. Russell hit just .226/.296/.354 with a wRC+ of 79 and struck out in 31% of his plate appearances, a big increase over his strikeout rate of 21% in the minors. Despite the struggles, the Cubs stuck with Russell, then moved him to starting shortstop. That faith has paid off in the second half.

Russell has not made the same leap as fellow youngsters in Correa and Lindor, but his hitting has improved and he’s the only one of the three to play a full season in the majors and qualify for the batting title. Russell became the starting shortstop near the beginning of August and, in the second half, he’s improved his offensive numbers to .249/.308/.418 (good for a 96 wRC+) and lowered his strikeouts to 26% without needing his line fueled by a high BABIP. (It’s remained a near-league-average .313 in the second half.) Among qualified shortstops, Russell’s .147 ISO this season ranks fifth out of 21 players. And while his numbers don’t jump out screaming to be recognized, shortstops on the whole this season have produced just an 87 wRC+ collectively — right in line with Russell’s year.

If he makes a start at shortstop for the Cubs in the playoffs it would be a rarity. In the last 40 years, the only player younger than Russell to start at shortstop in a playoff game is Edgar Renteria, per the Baseball-Reference Play Index. Renteria went on to hit the game-winner hit in Game 7 of the 1997 World Series for the Marlins. The chart below shows the rest of the players who have made starts younger than Russell will be next Wednesday when the Cubs play in the Wild Card game.

Youngest Shortstops to Start a Playoff Game

Player	Year	Playoff Debut Age
Travis Jackson	1924	20.337
Edgar Renteria	1997	21.054
Chris Speier	1971	21.096
Dib Williams	1931	21.256
Addison Russell	2015	21.257*

*If Russell starts WC Game

At just 21 years old, Addison Russell has produced a rookie season nearly many peer. Since the end of World War II, only 101 players have even qualified for the batting title at age 21 — and only 21 of those players were shortstops. Russell is just the eighth shortstop in his age-21 season in the last 30 years to qualify for the batting title. Not surprisingly, the results of that group have been mixed.

Shortstops at Age 21

Age-21 Season	Year	Team	PA	HR	AVG	OBP	SLG	wRC+	WAR
Alex Rodriguez	1997	Mariners	638	23	.300	.350	.496	119	4.3
Starlin Castro	2011	Cubs	715	10	.307	.341	.432	109	2.8
Addison Russell	2015	Cubs	502	13	.237	.301	.384	87	2.7
Elvis Andrus	2010	Rangers	674	0	.265	.342	.301	75	2.1
Mike Caruso	1998	White Sox	555	5	.306	.331	.390	89	1.7
Edgar Renteria	1998	Marlins	580	3	.282	.347	.342	90	0.9
Xander Bogaerts	2014	Red Sox	594	12	.240	.297	.362	82	0.3
Wil Cordero	1993	Expos	521	10	.248	.308	.387	84	-0.4
Average	—	—	597	10	.273	.327	.387	92	1.8

Russell’s WAR is propped up by fantastic defensive numbers. We are a bit early in Russell’s career to take those numbers on their face, but given his scouting reports, it is reasonable to believe that Russell is at least above average at the position. As a group, the players above improved a year later, bringing their average wRC+ up to 99 and and their WAR up to 2.9 in their age-22 seasons. Don’t worry too much about Alex Rodriguez skewing the stats upward, either, as Mike Caruso put up a 46 wRC+ and -2.7 WAR in 1999 and canceled out Rodriguez’s eight-win season for averaging purposes. The most recent of this select group was Xander Bogaerts just last year.

Addison Russell and Xander Bogaerts at Age-21

	Team	PA	HR	BB%	K%	ISO	wRC+	WAR
Addison Russell	Cubs	502	13	8.0%	28.3%	.147	87	2.7
Xander Bogaerts	Red Sox	594	12	6.6%	23.2%	.123	82	0.3

Bogaerts has had an interesting sophomore season, exhibiting less power but exchanging it for contact, as his strikeout rate has dropped to 15%. A .376 BABIP has helped Bogaerts to a wRC+ of 112 — and with very good baserunning and decent defense, his WAR is over four on the season. At least in the near future, Russell seems less likely to have a drop in power. Unlike Bogaerts last season, Russell’s second half has been a big improvement over the first.

Russell has dropped his strikeout rate from 31% to 26% while at the same time improving his power. After producing a .125 isolated-power mark (ISO) in the first half, he’s recorded a .169 figure since the All-Star break. Given the relatively small samples, we do not want to overreact to second-half splits and assume improvement, but given Russell’s minor league record and the high regard he’s received from prospect evaluators, it looks like Russell’s best days are ahead of him.

Russell might not be having a season that garners a lot of attention, but given his age and the important role he’s playing on playoff team, he’s having a commendable year. Russell is not the best rookie on his team nor is he the best young rookie at shortstop, but Russell has played an important role in the youth movement that has ended the Cubs’ six-year playoff drought. On a club seeking to make history, by starting at shortstop next week, Addison Russell will be looking to make some history of his own.