Addison Russell Is This Year’s Other Guy
Most Major League Baseball fans are familiar with Addison Russell. The Oakland A’s selected Russell in the first round of the 2012 draft, and he became one of the best prospects in all of baseball before his trade to the Chicago Cubs for Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel at the trade deadline last season. His call-up in April was a bit of a surprise, and despite his prospect record, his mediocre batting line, higher profile teammates, and a pair of rookie shortstops in the American League have left Russell in relative anonymity. Russell’s play has not forced anyone to take notice, but playing a full season at his age is an accomplishment in and of itself.
While most people know Russell, it would be fair if they weren’t keeping up with his progress this season. A 21-year-old top prospect would normally receive a lot of attention, but recording his own debut within days of teammate, uber-prospect and likely Rookie-of-the-Year in Kris Bryant rendered Russell’s arrival less newsworthy. Russell has also been overshadowed by a pair of 21-year-old shortstops from the American League, as Carlos Correa and Francisco Lindor have both exceeded a 130 wRC+ in over 400 plate appearances. Russell, on the other hand, has yet to distinguish himself at the plate: he’s hitting just .237/.301/.384 with an 87 wRC+ this year, and has struck out in more than 28% of his plate appearances.
Russell announced himself as a top prospect just one year out of high school as a 19-year-old in High-A Stockton in 2013, slashing .275/.377/.508 that season with 17 home runs in over 500 plate appearances. A hamstring injury limited him to 68 games in 2014, but that did little to dampen his stock as a prospect, with Kiley McDaniel ranking him third in all of baseball before this season. Of Russell, McDaniel wrote: “He’s got big bat speed, a solid approach, great plate coverage and the raw power to punish mistakes.” McDaniel indicated that Russell could stay at shortstop for the next five to seven seasons, and figured he would spend most of 2015 at Triple-A.
When Russell was promoted on the heels of Bryant’s own promotion it came as a bit of a surprise. The Cubs already had a starting shortstop in Starlin Castro, and though Russell was highly regarded, he was just 21 years old and had recorded only 321 plate appearances above Single-A. The projections for Russell were modest: ZiPS giving him a .243/.302/.404 line. Joe Maddon slotted Russell in the ninth spot in the order and gave him most of his playing time at second base. At the plate, the results were not positive. Russell hit just .226/.296/.354 with a wRC+ of 79 and struck out in 31% of his plate appearances, a big increase over his strikeout rate of 21% in the minors. Despite the struggles, the Cubs stuck with Russell, then moved him to starting shortstop. That faith has paid off in the second half.
Russell has not made the same leap as fellow youngsters in Correa and Lindor, but his hitting has improved and he’s the only one of the three to play a full season in the majors and qualify for the batting title. Russell became the starting shortstop near the beginning of August and, in the second half, he’s improved his offensive numbers to .249/.308/.418 (good for a 96 wRC+) and lowered his strikeouts to 26% without needing his line fueled by a high BABIP. (It’s remained a near-league-average .313 in the second half.) Among qualified shortstops, Russell’s .147 ISO this season ranks fifth out of 21 players. And while his numbers don’t jump out screaming to be recognized, shortstops on the whole this season have produced just an 87 wRC+ collectively — right in line with Russell’s year.
If he makes a start at shortstop for the Cubs in the playoffs it would be a rarity. In the last 40 years, the only player younger than Russell to start at shortstop in a playoff game is Edgar Renteria, per the Baseball-Reference Play Index. Renteria went on to hit the game-winner hit in Game 7 of the 1997 World Series for the Marlins. The chart below shows the rest of the players who have made starts younger than Russell will be next Wednesday when the Cubs play in the Wild Card game.
| Player | Year | Playoff Debut Age |
| Travis Jackson | 1924 | 20.337 |
| Edgar Renteria | 1997 | 21.054 |
| Chris Speier | 1971 | 21.096 |
| Dib Williams | 1931 | 21.256 |
| Addison Russell | 2015 | 21.257* |
At just 21 years old, Addison Russell has produced a rookie season nearly many peer. Since the end of World War II, only 101 players have even qualified for the batting title at age 21 — and only 21 of those players were shortstops. Russell is just the eighth shortstop in his age-21 season in the last 30 years to qualify for the batting title. Not surprisingly, the results of that group have been mixed.
| Age-21 Season | Year | Team | PA | HR | AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | WAR |
| Alex Rodriguez | 1997 | Mariners | 638 | 23 | .300 | .350 | .496 | 119 | 4.3 |
| Starlin Castro | 2011 | Cubs | 715 | 10 | .307 | .341 | .432 | 109 | 2.8 |
| Addison Russell | 2015 | Cubs | 502 | 13 | .237 | .301 | .384 | 87 | 2.7 |
| Elvis Andrus | 2010 | Rangers | 674 | 0 | .265 | .342 | .301 | 75 | 2.1 |
| Mike Caruso | 1998 | White Sox | 555 | 5 | .306 | .331 | .390 | 89 | 1.7 |
| Edgar Renteria | 1998 | Marlins | 580 | 3 | .282 | .347 | .342 | 90 | 0.9 |
| Xander Bogaerts | 2014 | Red Sox | 594 | 12 | .240 | .297 | .362 | 82 | 0.3 |
| Wil Cordero | 1993 | Expos | 521 | 10 | .248 | .308 | .387 | 84 | -0.4 |
| Average | — | — | 597 | 10 | .273 | .327 | .387 | 92 | 1.8 |
Russell’s WAR is propped up by fantastic defensive numbers. We are a bit early in Russell’s career to take those numbers on their face, but given his scouting reports, it is reasonable to believe that Russell is at least above average at the position. As a group, the players above improved a year later, bringing their average wRC+ up to 99 and and their WAR up to 2.9 in their age-22 seasons. Don’t worry too much about Alex Rodriguez skewing the stats upward, either, as Mike Caruso put up a 46 wRC+ and -2.7 WAR in 1999 and canceled out Rodriguez’s eight-win season for averaging purposes. The most recent of this select group was Xander Bogaerts just last year.
| Team | PA | HR | BB% | K% | ISO | wRC+ | WAR | |
| Addison Russell | Cubs | 502 | 13 | 8.0% | 28.3% | .147 | 87 | 2.7 |
| Xander Bogaerts | Red Sox | 594 | 12 | 6.6% | 23.2% | .123 | 82 | 0.3 |
Bogaerts has had an interesting sophomore season, exhibiting less power but exchanging it for contact, as his strikeout rate has dropped to 15%. A .376 BABIP has helped Bogaerts to a wRC+ of 112 — and with very good baserunning and decent defense, his WAR is over four on the season. At least in the near future, Russell seems less likely to have a drop in power. Unlike Bogaerts last season, Russell’s second half has been a big improvement over the first.
Russell has dropped his strikeout rate from 31% to 26% while at the same time improving his power. After producing a .125 isolated-power mark (ISO) in the first half, he’s recorded a .169 figure since the All-Star break. Given the relatively small samples, we do not want to overreact to second-half splits and assume improvement, but given Russell’s minor league record and the high regard he’s received from prospect evaluators, it looks like Russell’s best days are ahead of him.
Russell might not be having a season that garners a lot of attention, but given his age and the important role he’s playing on playoff team, he’s having a commendable year. Russell is not the best rookie on his team nor is he the best young rookie at shortstop, but Russell has played an important role in the youth movement that has ended the Cubs’ six-year playoff drought. On a club seeking to make history, by starting at shortstop next week, Addison Russell will be looking to make some history of his own.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
I got my popcorn ready.
What is ‘nearly many peer’ in the sixth paragraph supposed to say?
I think it’s a typo and should be ‘nearly without peer’.
Addison Russell will not be 21.257 yrs old if/when he starts the WC game. He’d be 21 yrs, 8 mos and 14 days, somewhere around 21.76.
I believe the .257 means he has been 21 for 257 days as of that WC game. It’s not a typical decimal value.
Yeah, Baseball Reference does the same thing which really confused me. Both sites need to find a different separator than a decimal point.
Look, another article about the Cubs! You know there are other teams that are going to make the playoffs too, right?
aka “Yet another Craig Edwards Cubs puff piece”
Look, another butthurt comment about cubs coverage.
I don’t want to rain on the Russell parade, but this article seems incredibly one-sided (perhaps the other side, looking at his slash line, is too obvious to dwell on even for a minute). A few points:
I’m not sure what sense it makes to do a cutoff for plate appearances when looking at a counting stat like WAR. The only reason I can see to do that is to make Russell’s season look more historically special than it is. Correa has been a much better and more valuable (and less reliant on defense) player but will miss the qualified status by about 65-75 plate appearances.
It seems to me if you wanted to get a better sense of Russell, you’d use a cohort that included just as many players below him as above him, rather than seeing that he barely qualifies, and then using that as the benchmark. You could take the 7-8 guys that finished closest to qualifying. Also, having more than 7 other samples wouldn’t hurt. It also might not hurt to compare him to guys who derived most of their value from defense.
Lastly, the fact that most people would probably say very, very few players are true talent +20 defenders means that more likely than not his offensive improvements will be mitigated by regression on defense.
This is an excellent article.
That said, I think TKDC has a strong point about using a cohort that includes as many players below him as above him. In fact, that’s good advice for Fangraphs generally (and any other analytical site). Otherwise it introduces an element of bias into the analysis.
Appreciate the comments from both of you. Unfortunately for this piece, getting more players wouldn’t have been that helpful because you would have to drop down below 300 PA to get even 6 more guys over the last 30 years. Only one more guy is added by going down to 400 PA. That is part of what makes Russell’s season so rare. Going further back in time just adds more players above him than below him.
There is no doubt Correa has been better this season, and a lot more, deservedly so, has been written about him.
I chose not to use WAR as a cutoff given how much of his value is tied to defense, but Russell’s wRC+ is in the general range of the players in the chart above. If I felt all those guys were great comps, I would have done more analysis on their future, but instead of removing guys like A-Rod, I thought it better to leave him in and focus on the rarity of full-time starters at shortstop at the age of 21. I have no problems with your critiques, but thought you might want to know my thought process.
Sometimes I just forgot Rodriguez was the Mike Trout of his time.
Right? He was going to be the “clean” guy to break Aaron’s record.
Also, maybe I’m doing something wrong, but I found 21 short stops who qualified since 1947 at age 21, including Cal Ripken in 1982, who had the highest WAR.
I’m guessing the issue is that Ripken only played 60% at short stop and 40% at third. I wonder if the old-school thought of not giving the rookie the prime defensive position is waning.
But to the main point, this really seems like constricting the cohort for no particular reason.
Thanks for the article! I really enjoyed it.
Here’s looking forward to a lot of success for Russell!
He’s the next Jhonny Peralta but somehow everyone will be surprised by such a “good but not great” career arc after all the post samardzija deal hot-takes.
Russell has decent pop, ok contact skills, improving discipline, good glove work, and no speed to add value on the bases with. He just stopped showing any speed starting in 2014 which seems odd for such a young player.
Decent pop? 21 yr old SS with a legit .147 ISO. Check his spray chart. The guy has power to all fields. There are a ton of fly balls and liners right up against the RF wall. I say that ISO is going up over .170 next season.
His walks will regress to over 10% based on his minor league record. And there is no hole in his swing like Baez or Soler etc…
Good glove? You have not watched. The kid can go left, right, forward, back and away to both sides at an angle. And he has plenty of arm for any throw. Yeah he is not Baez throwing almost 100mph but that arm is elite. He really has no idea how much he can do on the field.
And he batted 9th! That is brutal. Probably the hardest position to hit from. As a 21 yr old rookie he faced more relievers and fewer starters for the 3-4 times than I think anyone in the league.
A “legit” .147 ISO? Ha. That would be impressive for a pitcher. No so much for a regular batter.
ACK reply fail. Meant for Scott.
I’ve already been through this exercise of finding a meaningful cohort for Addison Russell. Here’s what I got:
Age-21 Players with wRC+ of 87, Since 1920 (with Qualifying PA)
Addison Russell, Cubs, 2015
Sammy Sosa, White Sox, 1990
Alan Trammel, Tigers, 1979
Alfredo Griffin, Blue Jays, 1979
Carl Yastrzemski, Red Sox, 1961
Howie Schultz, Dodgers, 1944
Dick Bartell, Pirates, 1929
Early power or lack of power can be predictive. Russell’s ISO is 0.147. Let’s grab the guys 25 points above and below, and open the wRC net a bit wider (plus or minus 5 points from Russell):
Age-21 Players with wRC+ between 82-87 and ISO between .122-.172
Addison Russell, Cubs, 2015
Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox, 2014
Jose Guillen, Pirates, 1997
Wil Cordero, Expos, 1993
Sammy Sosa, White Sox, 1990
Harold Baines, White Sox, 1980
Carl Yastrzemski, Red Sox, 1961
Howie Schultz, Dodgers, 1944
Russell has the highest walk rate (8%)and the highest strikeout rate (28%) of anyone on the list. Removing the guys who strikeout less than 14% or walk less than 4% leaves us with this group:
Age-21 players with these attributes:
wRC+ between 82-87
ISO between .122-.172
SO rate over 14%
BB rate over 4%
Addison Russell, Cubs, 2015
Xander Bogaerts, Red Sox, 2014
Sammy Sosa, White Sox, 1990
Carl Yastrzemski, Red Sox, 1961
It’s strange to put Addison Russell in a short list with Sammy Sosa and Carl Yastrzemski, but those are his numbers. Among this group, nobody has a higher wRC+ than Russell. Only Sosa has a higher ISO.
So, yeah. Not sure what to make of the Sosa/Yastrzemski comp. If I have my history right, Sosa’s highest non-PED WAR season was 4.6 in 1993 at age 24. Carl Yastrzemski went on to have a career average wRC+ of 130 in 23 seasons. Cubs fans would be pretty happy with that, right?
The challenge with these types of comparisons or trying to find similar players is that the game has changed in regards to younger players.
In the past, the practice has been to prefer veterans at the major league level unless the player is soooo damn good that you couldn’t possibly keep them in the minors (generally speaking). Partly due to managers preferring veterans that require less attention or the idea that the young guys have to pay their dues, etc.
However, with the change in baseball preparation (elite youth teams, significantly higher talent in college, semi-pro teams, etc), young guys seem to be more “major league ready” with less amatuer playing years. Also, teams now recognize that the team control contract years are, by far, the most valuable to a team … so we see more and more young players coming to the majors at young ages and being ready to produce.
I’m not saying Russell won;t go on to have a Sosa/Yazx career, but bearing in mind they both had HoF careers (essentially) and to project that onto any player is tough.
Anyway, I was just discussing the difficulty of finding such comps given the way the treatment/preparation of young players has changed in the last 15 or so years (especially).
But, yes … Cub fans should be excited. What I am finding is that the Cub fans I know basically have every one of their young players progressing to All-Star or MVP type levels of performance … and that’s likely not realistic.
I’m not following the logic of this statement. The teams have the same number of years control regardless of what age they bring the player up, right? That would argue for delaying bringing up players who are not completely ready (or even some who are), so as to get as much of the player’s prime during team control, not for bringing them up earlier.
Didn’t we just have that situation earlier this season, when the Cubs delayed bringing up an obviously ready Kris Bryant in order to get another season of control?
Before free agency, there was no incentive not to promote a player who was ML ready, since the teams controlled the player indefinitely. Perhaps the teams have gotten more savvy about realizing that their young players are often better (and cheaper) than some of their established players, but that is a different argument.
That’s what I am saying … that it’s the combination of (1) good performance and (2) low cost, as opposed to (1) good performance and (2) high cost.
A young player that can perform as well as the current veteran is getting more opportunities.
… and younger players seem to be more major league ready due to how players are prepared nowadays. They play high level elite games numerous times from age 10 through college.
Got to make a quick correction to my post above. In the two lists with the opened-up WRC+ set, the upper limit was 92, not 87.
For what it’s worth, Xander Bogaerts played postseason games at a younger age, though most of his time was spent at 3B. He did log some time at Shortstop, though not much.