JABO: The Pirates’ One Chance
When you see Jake Arrieta’s final line – 9 innings, 4 hits, 0 runs, 0 walks, 11 strikeouts — it’s actually kind of hard to believe, but as dominating as the Cubs ace was on Wednesday night, the Pirates actually had a chance to beat him. Arrieta was amazing, but he wasn’t quite perfect, and in the sixth inning, the Pirates put together a legitimate rally.
The inning started with pinch-hitter Travis Snider driving a hard grounder up the middle for a leadoff single. Gregory Polanco smoked a line drive right at third baseman Kris Bryant, but Bryant’s circus act catch meant that it simply turned into out number one, but then Arrieta gave the Pirates a gift by hitting Josh Harrison with a curveball, putting a runner in scoring position for the first time all night. And then Andrew McCutchen hit a laser to shortstop that Addison Russell couldn’t handle, allowing everyone to advance safely, which loaded the bases and brought the tying run to the plate.
Down 4-0, having only had two baserunners prior to the inning, a Pirates team that looked unable to put anything together against Arrieta suddenly was one swing away from tying up the game. Starling Marte, the team’s cleanup hitter, stepped to the plate. While not a traditional slugger, Marte hit 19 home runs this year and is capable of driving the ball, especially if he can sit on a fastball.
Marte is somewhat of the cliche of a raw baseball player; he crushes fastballs and struggles with soft stuff that moves. For his career, he’s hit .313 with a .521 slugging percentage against four-seam fastballs, and .294 with a .423 slugging percentage against two-seam fastballs. For comparison, he’s hit .198 against curves and .260 against breaking balls, with less power than he produces on fastballs. Marte is, essentially, a fastball hitter.
So unsurprisingly, Arrieta started him with a slider, but he missed his spot and bounced the ball in the dirt, allowing Marte to easily take ball one. With the bases loaded, Arrieta decided to challenge Marte, and gave him the fastball he was certainly looking for. And Marte crushed it.
Read the rest at Just A Bit Outside.
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
That single moment was more fun than just about anything that happened in the 2014 WC game. There was a real feel in the crowd that Arrieta was off and one swing could save the season. At least we got that to cheer for this year. Wish it was a 3 game series, Tues-Thur with no travel would work just fine and not extend the season.
a 3-game WC series would be even more unfair than a one-game. You would marginally reduce the randomness but in return, if the series went the full 3 games, you would be starting off the NLDS with your #4 starter and #5 starter (or your #1 starter on short rest on Saturday).
Yes. Please give up the 3 game nonsense.
I think we should give up the wild card nonsense.
[1] A short series doesn’t need to settle something that a 162-game season hasn’t already decided.
[2] How can you be champion of the world if you aren’t even your division champion?
Shorten the season and expand the playoffs (please don’t)or reduce the playoffs and keep the long season (1 division per league, 2 divisions at most).
Expanded playoffs, interleague play, etc seems to have really diminished the regular season. MLB can stop trying to be the NFL and get back to being itself.
yes, MLB is going to throw away revenue to regress to the situation we had 20 years ago, please …
To your 2nd argument, how does another team’s relative success (that happened by geographic chance to be near you) determine your team’s quality? It is entirely possible for the best 2 teams in baseball over 162 games to be geographically near each other.
How is that unfair at all? It is much more fair to the WC teams having a chance to play real baseball and it doesn’t really set the winner back, if you start the DS on Saturday your ace can start game 1 on short rest which is better than what we have now.
A 3-game series just isn’t more legit than a 1-game winner-takes-all game. Well, if you crunch the numbers it kinda is, but it’s so marginal that it’s practically meaningless.
Let’s say one team is superior to another. For the sake of argument, suppose the Pirates have a 53% chance of beating the Cubs in any one game (a 3% difference seems pretty standard between wild-card opponents). The odds, then, that they would win a best-of-3 series is 54.5%
So a 3-game series would tax the pitching staff more, possibly add travel, give the divisional series opponent more time to rest, for a measly 1.5% increase in certainty that the ‘right’ team won (i.e., something that would make a difference once every 66 years). There’s just no way that’s worth it.
4-1-2-3-1 is a better rotation than 2-3-1-2-3
Unless you had a really good 4th starter like AJ Burnett or JA Happ. A 3 game WC would really benefit a team like Pittsburgh that is built on a solid starting pitching.
I like the old days where the top team in the National League played the top team in the American League in the World Series. None of this playoff garbage. You won the pennant by winning the most games.
Why can’t the MLB just take one wild card team? The NFL did it for years. Does anyone remember why they changed to multiple teams? I know the answer. ABC Sports told them to. They wanted additional playoff games. This is not a conspiracy theory. It was well reported in the mainstream media back when it happened. You can research it. It is not difficult to find support. So to say that there’s any logic to taking multiple wildcard teams… You will embarrass yourself. It is about money for the networks and for the sport. I don’t want MLB to turn into NHL / NBA where it seems that the post season is as long as the season
The whole PIRATES team is primarily fastball hitters, which is why they destroyed most teams bullpens. They are probably the top scoring team in the majors from the seventh inning on. But pretty poor at scoring prior to the 7th.
Marte spent a good part of the season as leadoff hitter. You don’t want to walk the leadoff hitter, therefore he got quite a few fast balls to hit. Basically fast balls over the plate when he worked the count. So of course his success rate on fast balls will appear to be better than it should be, a type of false positive for a cleanup hitter, who often gets pitched around. Many of the fast balls he saw were designed to prevent a walk , being down the middle, over the plate. That’s the opposite of a leadoff hitter.
My point is a leadoff hitter has the heart of the order of behind him and you don’t want to walk the guy. Number four hitter can be walked because there’s no one behind him… No protection if you will. So number one hitter will see more fast balls to hit when pitcher is behind in the count.
I’ve watched a lot of Piratess games this year. I pitched college baseball and I’m a sports medicine physician with specialty training in biomechanics . I recognize pitches and use MLB at bat also . I don’t recall Marte getting very many curve balls to hit. Just stating a percentage, without stating how many pitches it is based on doesn’t allow us to determine whether or not it is useful. Was it 25 curve balls all year or 500?
http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PIT/2015-batting-orders.shtml
Marte batted leadoff once the entire season.
As a Pirates fan, I agree that it was a fun game. After the Cubs get used to winning with their talented team, they will realize you don’t have to win every year to have fun. Its fun just watching a good team play.
They may even look back at this season and realize how embarrassing their youthful teams lack of sportsmanship is. High fives in the dugout is one thing. But carrying on for 10 minutes after a home run is quite another. As Vince Lombardi once said quite famously… Act like you’ve been there before when you score a touchdown. It’s called being a professional. And for the owner to wave a white flag with a blue W in the visitors ballpark… I’ll let you all decide how appropriate that was. It sounds like something Robert Kraft would do. I doubt that Bob nutting, owner of the Pirates, would wave a Jolly Roger flag in Wrigley Field. And it’s been 36 years since the Pirates have won the World Series… so the 100 plus years thing is not an excuse for unsportsmanlike behavior. Act like you’ve been there before even if you haven’t been for a hundred years.
Shut up and troll elsewhere please. If you want to talk about lack of professionalism, don’t throw at the opposing pitcher just because the guy dominates you.
Reminder:
“The difference is that Geritt Cole has playoff experience. Jake Arietta may very well pull a Johnny Cueto on Wednesday night. Great season and dreadful wildcard performance. Remember Clayton Kershaw didn’t look so hot in the playoffs after a great season and people were shocked when that happened. Don’t count the Pirates out. Pittsburgh is counting on World Series baby! And there’s no logic to this post. It’s one game. Statistics & logic are out the window. It’s mostly about who keeps a cooler head. Ask Terry Bradshaw, an average quarterback who kept his cool during the playoffs and has 4 Super Bowl rings to show for it!”
arrieta-cole-objectively-one-of-best-playoff-matchups-ever
http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/arrieta-cole-objectively-one-of-best-playoff-matchups-ever/
**corrected
Please! A PIRATE fan complaining about the unprofessionalism of the CUBS? Do you even remember that two Pirate players were hit by pitches COMPLETELY BY ACCIDENT (I can’t imagine anyone that isn’t completely biased would say there was a chance that either were hit on purpose), and then the Pirates go and nail Arrieta, clearly intentionally.
NOW tell me which team lacked class and was unprofessional?
By the way, I am neither a Pirate nor a Cub fan.
That is correct, sir! When the Cubs hit a batter it is always an accident, and any retaliation is a mafioso act in violation of RICO statutes that should be investigated by MLB, the FBI, and possibly the ICC at the Hague for possible Geneva Convention infractions.
OTOH, if another teams hits a Cubs player then the Cubs are only right to assume it’s purposeful, and to defend themselves accordingly by any means necessary.
This is how the umpires union and MLB sees it, how the state of Illinois sees it, how all decent humankind sees it, and if the Cardinals-Fangraphs criminal conspirators disagree, then too bad; they can just STFU. Go Cubs Go!
Arrieta gave up four hits, not five. Interestingly, it’s correct on the full version of the story.
Unless the official scorer at PNC changed the error on the Cubbie’s shortstop on McCutcheon’s batted ball, back to a hit this morning. That happens not infrequently with the PNC official scorer.
So it may be a 5 hitter officially now. I don’t know, but I’m just saying that the hit count can change the next day. It happens not infrequently with PIRATES games played at the PNC
There only chance was having Mookie Betts. GOAT
Where?
The Wild Card game is, and should be one game. You did not win the division, and not too many years ago (as a 5th place team) you would be out of the post-season period. I realize the Pirates had a great year with 98 wins, but how often have we had the three best records in one division? Just once, 2015. The Royals and Giants made it work last year, maybe the Astros or more likely the Cubs, can do it again this year.
Why is winning your division more important than winning more games? Both the Cubs and the Pirates would win any other division.
It isnt, but its the format. So unless we do away with division’s and just take the top 5, its what we have. If we do that the each team could play all other teams in their league roughly 11 times, with 8 inter-league games mixed in pre all-star break.
Going back to the older way of doing things is not necessarily regression. Sometimes we recognize that the newer way of doing things it is a mistake. Like the uniforms of the 1970s. That’s a joke guys. But still the single best example that I can think of.
This is such flawed thinking. “the cubs and pirates would win any other division”.
1. First of all, having a better record doesn’t indicate being a better team.
2. In any other division, they would play an entirely different schedule. And don’t give me that “but arizona and sd and colorado suck so the cubs wuold be a 110 win team”. It doesn’t translate like that.
Fine. Then let’s not talk about hypotheticals. Let’s talk about what actually happened: The Pirates and Cubs had a better record than the Dodgers and Mets, against a weaker schedule. Full stop.
That’s it. No hypotheticals. Just two facts. Or at least One facts and an opinion that is nigh impossible to dispute.
I’m looking at it more from the point about divisions making no sense. JK wrote something down below that says it well.
BTW… I would feel this way regardless of the team I’m rooting for.
You may want to look at the Pittsburgh Pirates season record against the LA Dodgers and New York Mets. Or the record in September against those two teams. I don’t want to spoil it for you, but the Pirates basically on those two teams all year, and especially in September. Head-to-head play is the best way to evaluate two teams. Pittsburgh is definitely better then either LA Dodgers or New York Mets. And Pittsburgh had no trouble with the fastball pitchers on the New York Mets.
This is not an opinion. Anyone willing to do the work I can see it in the data. I just don’t have the time to look it up for you. Any site that does splits like ESPN has it
you’re right, it CAN be flawed thinking, but in this case it isn’t….the Pirates & Cubs owned every other division they played…they were:
Pirates
24-9 vs NL East
27-6 vs NL West
Cubs
22-12 vs NL East
19-13 vs NL West
Dodgers:
17-17 vs NL Central (4-3 vs Cubs, 1-5 vs Pirates)
Mets:
13-20 vs NL Central (0-7 vs Cubs, 0-6 vs Pirates)
Of course it’s an opinion, WillyG. It’s not as easy as “Head-to-head play is the best way to evaluate two teams” when you’re talking about just a few games between them. It’s the same way that you can’t say the winner of a playoff season is the better team.
I looked at the September series against the Dodgers when PIT won 2 out of 3. The Dodgers outscored the Pirates 11-9 in the series, but the Pirates won two 1-run games. I wouldn’t say the Pirates owned them.
They swept the Mets in August, and the first two games went into extra innings, which is even more of a toss-up than a 1-game Wild Card Playoff. Colon/Niese started those games. The third game they finally faced a Fastball pitcher (Harvey), and he gave up 1 run in 6 innings. Once he was taken out of the game, the Pirates feasted on three bullpen arms that aren’t on the post-season roster.
Overall, the Pirates went 5-1 in those games – which is great. And I’m not suggesting that the other two teams are better than the Pirates, but the 5-1 record isn’t enough to say that the Pirates are definitely the better team. They could have easily lost the extra inning games against the Mets or the 1-run games against the Dodgers if one extra bloop hit had fallen in.
The Pirates went 41-15 against the NL East & West combined so what does that say.
To all those whining about the current playoff structure, were you as similarly incensed when the following teams failed to even make the playoffs despite having better records than some division winners in their league that year — just because of the structure that existed then?
2007 Mets
2006 Phillies
2005 Phillies
2003 Mariners
2001 Giants and A’s
2000 Indians
1993 Giants
1985 Mets
1980 Orioles
A few of these teams even won over 100 games and didn’t make it. And in 2007, had playoff eligibility been decided by W-L record alone, the Cubs wouldn’t have made it that year.
So if you didn’t complain then, I don’t think you have a leg to stand on now.
If you weren’t vocal about what I am implying is right at the time, don’t start agreeing with me now!
@Better Comment Writer — who are you talking to and what are you saying?
@Better Comment Writer — OK, I gather you are talking to me. Well guess what? I certainly do not agree with you. And I never will. Your side is wrong.
Well under old rules the Pirates would be in the NLDS 3 years straight. This isn’t about complaining about the 98 win thing, its about team baseball and 162 games shouldn’t be decided because 1 team has a better ace, its a team game after all.
The Pirates are such a strong team, I know a lot of my fellow Cubs fans preferred the WC game against them over a longer series. Congrats on a great season to you and the rest of the Pirates fans! I look forward to more in the future.
Honestly I’m fine with the play-in game, but divisions in professional sports are so outdated it’s kind of a joke. Two league, balance out the schedule somehow, and put the top-five teams in the playoffs:
1) Obviously, you avert the inevitable situations where 2-3 strong teams are in the same division.
2) You’ll have more teams play interesting games in September, as opposed to the Royals/Dodgers/Mets/Yankees/Cubs going on coast control because divisions have locked them into their playoff seeds.
3) Best record in the league will actually mean something, since you know you’ll get a slightly more advantageous matchup.
Divisions make no sense. College makes sense–you can go unbeaten, but if you play in a weak conference you make get bumped down a peg or two. Pro sports are the opposite: you can be so-so, but bump up a peg because of weak opponents? What?
This seems silly to me. Arieta not. Hacker just hit, but the grounding of GBS. There is nothing to be seen to shame Arrieta.
There is nothing to be seen to shame Arrieta.
The Orioles, on the other hand…
This seems silly to me. Arrieta didn’t. Hackers have attacked only, but the platform of GBS. It does not matter in Arrieta.
This seems silly to me. Arrieta didn’t. Hackers have attacked only, but the platform of GBS. It does not matter in Arrieta.
grounders go for hits quite a bit
This is entirely anecdotal and adds nothing to the discussion, but I’ll share it anyway…
I was in a Wrigleyville bar for the Bartman game in 2003. I remember the way they were rolling along and the WS felt like a foregone conclusion, and then the team lost it and the bar went silent… you could feel the atmoshere change.
Last night I was at Murphy’s Bleachers and I didn’t feel any nervousness… after they scored the first run, I said it was over, after Schwarber’s HR, I asked aloud when do we play the Cardinals… and when that 6th inning came around and Jake was a little shaky, and Russell bobbled that grounder, for a second I wondered if was happening all over again. But they got the DP… and stupid Sean Rodriguez… confidence restored.
I would be honored if Serb translated this… 🙂
This depends entirely on the details and do not contribute to the discussion, but to share it anyway …
I was in a bar in Vrigleiville the Bartman game in 2003. I remember coming out with me and with a sense of VS is inevitable, and that is lost and silent bar. You can feel the atmosphere.
Last night I was in the stands and Murph do not feel any anxiety … after they scored the first goal, he told me it was over, after HR SCHVARBER, I said out loud as he played the Cardinals …. when the arm 6 and Jake was upset and pushed Russell had a moment, I wondered whether all copies. But the DP … and stupid … Sean Rodriguez restore security.
It will be the end of me, if the Serbs did it … :))
Just want to say this guy is the sole reason why I’m rooting against the Cubs. Can talk baseball with people, as long as its only about the Cubs. If its about any other team he resorts to stupefying babble and pot shots at people.
So the Cubs won because if BABIP?
Mom’s spaghetti.
Maybe Starling Marte stopped listening to that song at “Lose…”
Sorry, too soon.
We shouldn’t even be here. We should all be making Sean Rodriguez gifs and memes.
The only way to get Marte to hit into a double play is if the grounder was hit really hard.
The breaking ball in the dirt was intended to set up the sinking fastball on the outer third. It’s hard to pull that ball and find a hole.
He was pitching to contact with Snider.
Polanco hit a ball that was six inches off the plate. Take the pitch to 2-0 next time young buc.
He hit Harrison with a curve, he had trouble with command of the curve last night.
Mccutchen was shaded up the middle and hit a sinker into the ground ball they wanted.
Marte hit the ground ball they wanted.
“Marte had previously hit the ball 109 mph (or harder) on 13 occasions this year, resulting in three singles, two doubles, and two home runs, plus six tough-luck outs.”
It doesn’t matter if he hit balls hard for home runs and doubles in the past, they could have been belt high change ups. There was no way he was taking Arrieta’s low and away sinker into the gap.
He’s so confident in his stuff, he’s not even willing to settle for a weak ground ball! He needs a screamer to short, so that’s what he’ll induce, dammit!! He wanted the bases loaded, just to mess with Pirates fans.
True.
I also enjoyed how many of Arietta’s balls outside the zone were called strikes on Pirates hitters earlier in the game, against their better players, and in more crucial situations, and then to preserve the illusion of fairness the umpires compensated late in the game and gave the Pirates relievers a more or less equal amount of calls, always against the Cubs weaker hitters like for instance LaStella. MLB understands it’s best for baseball that the Cubs advance and I’m glad they got the umpires on the same page.
There’s actually a graph for that, but you’re more interested in shitting up these boards than contributing anything.
It was a well-called game: http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2015-10-07&team=Pirates&dh=0. Of the 7 strikes that were close calls, 3 went Cubs’ way and 4 Pirates’ way. Of the 4 poorly-called balls, 1 hurt the Cubs and 3 hurt the Pirates.
He ain’t Jesus fucking Christ.
Marte smashed the ball and Arrieta was lucky to have it hit at someone. Period. End of story.
Marte’s heatmap vs RHP reveal a .026 ISO and a beet red zone for GB on the quadrant where Arrieta threw the sinker.
http://www.fangraphs.com/zonegrid.aspx?playerid=9241&position=OF&ss=2015&se=2015&type=6&hand=R&count=all&blur=1&grid=10&view=bat
Here is Marte’s spray chart for RHP:
http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=9241&position=OF&type=battedball&pid2=9241&ss1=2014&se1=2014&ss2=2015&se2=2015&cht1=hangtime&cht2=battedball&vs1=ALL&vs2=R
This player pulls his grounders regardless of pitch location. Montero sets up on the outside edge for a sinker, and Arrieta nails his spot. Arrieta got into a jam but made the pitches he needed to get out of it. We are witnessing the peak of excellence.
I’ve no doubt that Arrieta and Montero were hoping for a groundball there, but are you suggesting that he intentionally induced extra hard contact?
Hey, on the McCutchen ground ball Arrieta hits his spot with 100% accuracy on the sinker and the infield is shaded up the middle.
On the Marte ground ball Arrieta hits his spot with 100% accuracy on the sinker. Marte pulls his ground balls. Here’s his spray chart vs RHP:
http://www.fangraphs.com/spraycharts.aspx?playerid=9241&position=OF&type=battedball&pid2=9241&ss1=2014&se1=2014&ss2=2014&se2=2014&cht1=hangtime&cht2=battedball&vs1=R&vs2=R
Here’s video of both hits:
http://m.mlb.com/video/v520344683/nl-wc-russell-prevents-runs-with-terrific-defense/?affiliateId=clubMEGAMENU
If you watch the replay in slow motion, the ball and Starling Marte reach the base at the same time on that DP. Unless the rules have changed, I thought that ties went to the base runner. I’m not crying about it, because Clint Hurdle didn’t challenge the call on the field. But unless my DVR is transmitting images from another dimension or something… They both reached the base at the same time. So if it had been challenged, the ending would have continued with Starling Marte on 1st, correct? I’m not saying that the Pirates would have won the game or anything. I’m just asking if I am correct.
There is no such rule or ever was a rule saying “tie goes to the runner”, nor is there a such thing as there physically being a tie. I haven’t seen a slow motion replay to determine whether or not the call was correct but if the replay umpires aren’t able to tell whether he is safe or out on any replay they will stick with the call on the field.
Forgive WillyG, he was thinking about playground rules…
Ha, this is great. With the troll comments removed, I now look like a crazy person providing snarky grammar corrections to a non-existent passage in Dave’s piece.
LoL… I just noticed the same thing.
I like that the only comment on the JABO site on this article so far is from Addison Russell’s Mom.
The best part of the night was that steal Arietta had. That’s how you should get back on a hit by pitch.
Amen.
Not all hard-hit balls are created equal, and Marte has only himself (or Arrieta) to blame for creating zero lift on the ball. This is not a function of luck, and a 109 MPH ground ball will result in a high probability for a DP or at least a force out. His luckiest-case scenario was a hard-hit single into left, which probably drives home a run and then leaves the bases loaded. I don’t know how you would calculate this, but I can’t imagine that a hard-hit ground ball would result in a base hit any more than 40% of the time.
My only quibble with this piece is the idea that Arrieta had only one vulnerable inning, for he seemed pretty hittable in the 7th inning as well. Hard single by Cervelli (after Arrieta fell behind 2-0), then a strike out to Walker (okay, not so hittable there, but Walker did get ahead 2-1 then chased ball 3 out of the zone), and then a smash from Ramirez (after Arrieta fell behind 3-1) that was SCORCHED to Kris Bryant. But Bryant picked it nicely and bailed out his pitcher to start the 5-4-3 DP.
In fact, there was a stretch of 10 batters from the 6th to the 8th where the Pirates put 7 very hard balls in play, took a HBP, and got ahead in the count 8 times. With a little more batted-ball luck and a little worse D from the Cubs the game might have taken on a different complexion.
Cornflake, here you go 😉
This depends entirely on the details and do not contribute to the discussion, but to share it anyway …
I was in a bar in Vrigleiville the Bartman game in 2003. I remember coming out with me and with a sense of VS is inevitable, and that is lost and silent bar. You can feel the atmosphere.
Last night I was in the stands and Murph do not feel any anxiety … after they scored the first goal, he told me it was over, after HR SCHVARBER, I said out loud as he played the Cardinals …. when the arm 6 and Jake was upset and pushed Russell had a moment, I wondered whether all copies. But the DP … and stupid … Sean Rodriguez restore security.
It will be the end of me, if the Serbs did it … :))
Lol… thanks! 😉
If you hold a salmon feast in Vrigleiville, will SCHVARBER come??