Jackson Chourio Does It Again: Brewers Come Back to Win Game 2
They opened the roof. That’s the first thing you need to know about Game 2 of the NLDS between the Milwaukee Brewers and the San Diego Padres. Nobody had to worry about knocking the ball off a girder or a wire or a catwalk or a dangling chain of sausage links hanging from the ceiling. More importantly, nobody had to worry about the damn thing blowing off in the bottom of the ninth, when Jackson Chourio, one strike away from defeat, turned around a 101-mph Mason Miller fastball for a game-winning, two-RBI single. Against the most formidable reliever in baseball, after trailing since the fourth batter of the game, the Brewers turned water into, well, beer, beating the Padres 4-3 to take a 2-0 lead in the series. It marked the first time in more than a month that the Padres have lost two games in a row.
American Family Field presents quite a beautiful backdrop when it’s open to the sky and full of natural light. It feels vibrant and alive. It’s also not the friendliest place for hitters, who get to shift their worries from the roof to the shadows. The 3:09 PM local start time meant that when Logan Henderson threw the first pitch of the game, his shadow, already much longer than his six-foot-tall frame, stretched all the way across the mound and onto the infield grass toward third base. It twitched and wriggled as he went into his delivery, as if it believed this might be its chance to escape once and for all.
No player was more grateful for the open sky than Ty France, who on Saturday night experienced an even more unfriendly side of American Family Field. As you surely know by now, France flew out to deep left field by way of a ricochet off something or other up there by the roof. There’s some debate as to whether that ball would have both cleared the fence and stayed fair, but regardless, France certainly played like a man with a score to settle. He went 2-for-3 with two RBI singles and a hit-by-pitch, pushing his batting average this postseason to a respectable .487.
Davy Andrews is a Brooklyn-based musician and a writer at FanGraphs. He can be found on Bluesky @davyandrewsdavy.bsky.social.
In true playoff fashion it was two of the more maligned Brewers all season long in Yelich (122 wRC+ | 2.5 WAR in 2025 down to 92 wRC+ | 0.1 WAR in 2026) and Frelick (114 wRC+ | 3.6 WAR in 2025 down to 72 wRC+ | -0.5 WAR in 2026) who made the biggest non-Chourio contributions from the batter’s box with +0.13 and +0.21 WPA for the night.
Yelich had a pretty interesting season from a contextual standpoint though…
Bases Empty
256 PA of 80 wRC+
Runners On
244 PA of 104 wRC+
Scoring Position
150 PA of 127 wRC+
Low Leverage
228 PA of 71 wRC+
Medium Leverage
223 PA of 100 wRC+
High Leverage
49 PA of 151 wRC+
Two Outs
160 PA of 63 wRC+
One Out
156 PA of 94 wRC+
No Outs
184 PA of 114 wRC+
Trailing in Game
141 PA of .747 OPS (117 sOPS+)
Late and Close
71 PA of .809 OPS (132 sOPS+)
Runner on 3rd, less than 2 outs
33 PA of 1.080 OPS (157 sOPS+)
Put all those ascending situational splits together and out of 267 players with at least 300 PA this season Yelich finished with +1.34 WPA (59th) and a 1.64 Clutch Score (9th).
4 of 6 games have been thrillers. This was a sloppy game but thrilling anyway.
Also Chourio looks like a perennial all star
People forget this but Chourio is still young and inconsistent. He is younger than virtually the entire Rookie of the Year crop in both leagues being 22 and a half years old, and he usually spends the first month or two of the season sputtering before turning it on.
By the playoffs he has worked through whatever issues he had and he’s awesome, he’s got a 179 wRC+ in the postseason for his career. It’s easy to daydream on what would happen if he didn’t spend a month or two rediscovering how he likes to hit.
He really just had one month this year where he sputtered in the middle of the season (July).
As it stands 130 wRC+ is a marked step forward. Combined with his defensive gains, he’d easily be a top 10 MVP candidate in the NL if he didn’t get dinged in the hand during the WBC.
Right, this year his big issue was missing a month. If you add back that month at his yearly pace, he’s at ~6 WAR for his age-22 season, which looks a lot more impressive.
Is the Padres hotness just the Brewers status quo?
SDP went an MLB best 17 W – 3 L from September 6th through the end of the season pitching to a 4.42 ERA | 4.34 FIP. The offense did most of the damage with a 135 wRC+ and 6.20 RS/G. They had a +34 run differential.
Over that same date range the Brewers were ho-humming along at 15 W – 4 L with a 3.55 ERA and 3.79 FIP. Their offense wasn’t quite as scorching at only a 115 wRC+ and 6.00 RS/G. They had a +42 run differential.
Turning it back a little further looks like the Padres run started on July 24th going an MLB best 41 W – 18 L to close the season pitching to a 3.53 ERA | 4.08 FIP. The offense posted a 115 wRC+ and scored 5.02 R/G over this longer stretch of games. They had a +71 run differential.
During the same timeframe the Brewers were playing at room temperatures to a 39 W – 21 L record with a 3.65 ERA | 3.98 FIP while the offense went for a 112 wRC+ and scored 5.30 R/G. They had a +81 run differential.
The Padres bullpen for the season as a whole had an 88 ERA- | 87 FIP- | +6.28 WPA to much deserved fanfare. The Brewers bullpen put up an 82 ERA- | 88 FIP- | +9.56 WPA to seemingly less notice.
All that said, Brewers are 2 W – 8 L in San Diego over the last three seasons, and haven’t won a road playoff game since 2018, so wouldn’t be surprised at all if they drop these next two at Petco and the series comes back to Milwaukee for a deciding Game Five.
Teams are hot until they’re not. The Padres are a very good team, and they very easily could have taken both these games. But they didn’t, and now they’re not “hot” anymore.
Really appreciate Kiri and Davy being assigned this series. Both write-ups were an absolute delight to read.
Barrett the home plate umpire had a pretty brutal afternoon as the catchers at one point were 7-7 on challenges
Third base ump was very inconsistent on checked swings.
Unfortunate for a regular season game. Unacceptable for the post season. Do better MLB
Dumb question- But why did they have the roof closed in game 1?
No rain, high of 68, low of 53 on Saturday. A little chilly but certainly not so bad that you needed to close the roof. (This comes from someone who would only close the roof if it was rainy &/or below 45).
Seems odd it was even closed now that I think about it
Stadiums (stadia?) with retractable roofs often make the call about whether it should be open well in advance. With how hard it is to forecast the weather (and how much worse it is with cuts to the national weather service) I have to imagine they thought it was going to be a bit colder or thought the chance of rain was high enough to close it.
I don’t know enough about the mechanics of the roofs to know whether that advance notice is needed or not.
I think I would close it if it was forecast to be below 50, 45 is a bit chilly even for me.
It did rain during the final few innings. That roof isn’t super quick to close either. Either way, the call comes from MLB. If they want it closed, they get it closed in the playoffs.