Jake Arrieta’s Dominant, Dreadful Start
CHICAGO — Cubs ace Jake Arrieta continued his year-long run of brilliance on Sunday afternoon, striking out 12 batters with one walk in a 3-2 home loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The 30-year-old righty pounded the lower-half of the zone with his two-seam fastball, throwing it for 70 of his 108 pitches and generating a season-high 15 swinging strikes. The fastball averaged 95.6 miles per hour — his best velocity showing of the season — and topped out at 97.

The National League’s reigning Cy Young Award winner was locked in from the start, striking out the side in the first inning on fastballs of 96, 97, and 97, and doing so again in the second frame, this time all on breaking pitches. Arrieta’s 12 strikeouts were a season-high, and he became just the fifth pitcher since 1900 with 12 or more strikeouts in five innings or less, according to the Elias Sports Bureau.
“His stuff was electric today,” Cubs manager Joe Maddon told reporters after the game.
As a team, the Cubs struck out 18 Diamondbacks hitters, trying an Arizona franchise record for most strikeouts in a nine-inning game, a total set in an April 25, 2007 game against the Padres.
On a per-batter basis, it was arguably the most overpowering performance of Arrieta’s career. With 12 strikeouts in five innings, one walk, and no home runs allowed, Arrieta’s Fielding Independent Pitching mark for the game was -1.08, the best FIP in any of his 142 career starts. He generated ground balls on 60% of his balls in play, and allowed a better-than-average exit velocity of 88.1 miles per hour.
Arrieta helped himself out at the plate, too, smacking a 1-0 fastball off opposing starter Patrick Corbin for an RBI double over the head of center fielder Michael Bourn in the second inning to drive in Dexter Fowler. The 6-foot-4 hurler now owns a .695 OPS for the season, putting him in the top five among pitchers with at least 20 plate appearances.
That RBI double, though, accounted for half of Chicago’s offense. The only other damage the Cubs could muster against the southpaw Corbin came in the form of a solo home run by Javier Baez in the sixth inning that cut Chicago’s deficit to one run. The Cubs then went hitless over the final three innings, and Arrieta’s brilliant performance was for naught.
The loss marks the end of a 10-game homestand for Chicago, in which the Cubs went 8-2. They’ll travel to Philadelphia on Monday to kick off a three-game series that marks the start of a nine-game road trip. Lefty Jon Lester will take the hill in the series opener, opposing Phillies righty Adam Morgan. Arrieta’s next scheduled start comes on Friday, June 10 against the Braves, where he will look to build off Sunday’s dominant performance.
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CHICAGO — Cubs ace Jake Arrieta was knocked around on Sunday afternoon, allowing three runs in five innings on a season-high nine hits in a 3-2 home loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks.
The 30-year-old righty labored out of the gate, requiring 10 pitches to retire leadoff man Michael Bourn before walking the second hitter, Phil Gosselin, on six pitches. Arrieta was able to escape damage in the first inning, but the Diamonbacks capitalized on Arrieta’s struggles in the second.
Chris Herrmann led off the frame with a hard-hit ground ball that rolled to a stop in the outfield grass…
…before Chris Owings smoked a jam-shot in on the hands that proved too hot for right fielder Matt Szczur to handle.
Both runners scored on an RBI double by Yasmany Tomas, and the Cubs quickly found themselves in a 2-0 hole.
Arrieta held the Diamondbacks scoreless over the next two innings, though not without running up his pitch count. No at-bat was easy, as Arrieta averaged more than 20 pitches per inning over the first four frames, entering the fifth having already thrown 82 before running into trouble again.
It became apparent that Arrieta was off his game when he failed to retire opposing pitcher Patrick Corbin, who led off the fifth with a screaming line drive to left field.
Bourn then followed up Corbin’s smash with a moonshot to second baseman Ben Zobrist that came off the bat at 67 miles per hour, the highest exit velocity recorded by StatcastTM among all hitters this season.
Bourn later scored on an RBI single by Paul Goldschmidt, putting the Cubs behind, 3-1, a deficit from which they could not recover.
“Obviously, Jake is a human. He’s going to give it up sometimes,” catcher Miguel Montero told reporters.
Arrieta lasted just five innings for the second time in three starts, tied for his shortest outings since a four-inning start in Cincinnati on August 28, 2014. Arrieta’s nine hits allowed on 10 balls in play were the most hits he’s given up in a game since a May 7, 2015 start in St. Louis.
“They had a pretty good approach,” Arrieta told reporters. “They made me show that I had the ability to throw strikes or get in the strike zone early, with the intent to get in some hitter-friendly counts. Pitch count got up.”
The loss marks the end of a 10-game homestand for Chicago, in which the Cubs went 8-2. They’ll travel to Philadelphia on Monday to kick off a three-game series that marks the start of a nine-game road trip. Lefty Jon Lester will take the hill in the series opener, opposing Phillies righty Adam Morgan. Arrieta’s next scheduled start comes on Friday, June 10 against the Braves, where he will look to right the ship after Sunday’s disappointing performance.
August used to cover the Indians for MLB and ohio.com, but now he's here and thinks writing these in the third person is weird. So you can reach me on Twitter @AugustFG_ or e-mail at august.fagerstrom@fangraphs.com.
Hey August, this is great! Cubs have had their share of batted ball luck this year, so it was bound to come back around at some point. Snakes BABIP vs. Jake in this one was .900!
Regression is a bitch, sometimes….
Going into the game Jake’s ERA was 1.56 and his xFIP was above 3 and we knew that wasn’t going to last… after the game his ERA is 1.80, and his xFIP is 2.89…
things are starting to balance out…
As it was happening I was thinking wow, Arrieta is getting a huge amount of his BABIP bad luck balanced out in one game. His BABIP is now .249, not that unreasonable.
“Baseball”
I’m not sure if I should feel dumb about this… but I didn’t know a negative FIP was possible…
Hector rondon had a negative fip thru his like first 14 innings this year. Lot of strikeouts, low walks, high gb rate.
Math: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/pitching/fip/
The math is complicated enough (given the existence of the constant offset term) that it might not be intuitive just from the equations that you can get a negative FIP.
But it’s based on linear weights and there’s nothing in there to stop it from going negative. It just requires that your value be better than league average by more than the league average ERA.
Given that you can get more than 3 strikeouts in an inning single inning there’s actually no lower bound on FIP. (Looking at the Guts! page for the constant, -4.876 is the FIP for this year for a 4 strikeout inning with no other relevant events. This can be taken as a practical lower bound given that no one in MLB has ever thrown a 5 strikeout inning.)
Editted to add: That’s based on this year’s constant, other years would have other values for the 4 K, no other relevant event inning.
I didn’t know a negative vote count on a comment with a helpful link was possible.
Cubs announcers mentioned the similarity to another SP performance Joe Maddon witnessed from the dugout…
http://www.fangraphs.com/wins.aspx?date=2013-05-10&team=Rays&dh=0
4.2 IP 5 H 3 ER 2 BB 13 K
“…that came off the bat at 67 miles per hour, the highest exit velocity recorded by StatcastTM among all hitters this season.” That’s “lowest” right?
I don’t think that he’s being serious in the second half of the article.
This was excellent! I am glad a came to Fangraphs today!
The Cubs announcers compared the Dbacks hitting strategy to rope-a-dope, exhausting Arrieta by taking so many pitches that he was exhausted after 5 innings.
Reminded me of this start by Andrew Cashner last year. The only batted ball out recorded was a pop-up:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=8782&position=P&type=&gds=2015-06-01&gde=2015-06-01&season=
I’d love to see a TRU score for this game like the ones that have been done for the best complete games of the season: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-2016-single-game-pitching-belt-scherzer-vs-velasquez/
How about both of those takes are kind-of right and kind-of wrong?
Arrieta deserved better, but it wasn’t a good start for his team. Can’t win em all.
The fifth inning was comical. The Dbacks got 5 hits (all but one at least fairly cheap) but only run because they got two people thrown out on the bases.
weird as it is to say as we lost, i really enjoyed this game. It seemed to encapsulate the fact that anything can and will happen in baseball. Reminds me of why i got into the game in the first place.
August, one thing just bothers me here. “On a per batter basis…” followed by per inning stats. Part of the reason he was able to strike out 12 batters in 5 innings was that 9 of them got hits. It does still appear to be his highest K% start of his career though.
Yes, looking at the game one didn’t exactly have the impression that Arrieta was really dominant. It was more a matter of both him and the Diamondbacks being completely frustrated, Arrieta because he had to throw so many pitches–the Dbacks didn’t bite often on his low pitches out of the strike zone, it was clear by the 2nd inning that he was throwing too many pitches and wouldn’t last long regardless of whether he was hit, and he was well over 100 after 5 innings and had to be taken out–and the Dbacks because they couldn’t hit the more more than feebly. He just kept throwing low 2-seamers, often missing, and eventually either they would strike out or hit a weak grounder.
the regression may have started..he’s enjoyed the “dominance”, might be time for the “dreadful”
we may get an indication of how jake’s feeling if we start hearing boras talking contracts
or not
Then today Kris Bryant missed 2 homers by a total of 4 feet. Baseball!
Nice!