Jason Collette – Baseball Chat by Jason Collette March 28, 2014 11:59 Jason Collette: bienvenue…let’s chat 12:00 Comment From AL Pitching CoachYordano Ventura, and to some extent Tanner Scheppers, have picked up a ton of fantasy buzz over the past week or two. Thoughts on what to expect from them in 2014? Jason Collette: Eno and I discussed both guys on the podcast that dropped overnight. I like Ventura more than Scheppers, but Ventura’s delivery worries me. “his arm looks like it is attached to a rubber band” is the phrase I got from a pitching guru and that’s not a good thing. 12:01 Comment From Tony the TigerHow badly does the loss of Iglesias affect the fantasy values of Porcello and Smyly? Jason Collette: It certainly does not help.I was really looking forward to seeing what that infield could do for Porcello. Knocks them down a round/round and a half and a $1 12:01 Comment From GuestMiggy’s contract is the n-th worst contract in baseball in the last 25 years. n equals??? Jason Collette: Vernon Wells, Joe Blanton, Albert Pujols, 50 feet of crap, Ryan Howard….so maybe 6th? 12:03 Comment From jocephusswydan is not a fan of martinez/rosenthal going into BP without chance at starting…yer thoughts? Jason Collette: I side with him on this, to a point. You’ve already started down the path with Rosenthal, so if you’re going to stretch him out, do it in the minors. Martinez has drastic R/L splits and would be better served in the minors working on that as well, but I get putting both on the major league level in their current roles. 12:03 Comment From ChrisWhat is your outlook on Jose Abreu? Does he have the ability to be an elite first baseman Jason Collette: He was a hot topic of discussion at Foley’s last Saturday night. Crowdsourcing his numbers gave me a .270 avg with 32-35 homers 12:04 Comment From Dr. MetNo twitter acct? Jason Collette: for me? I’m scared of twitter. I barely use thing and nobody follows me. If you insist on doing so, it’s @jasoncollette 12:04 Comment From KJmost upside and most 2014 IP: Oberholtzer, T Jordan, J Mejia? Jason Collette: Mejia, assuming he wins that final rotation spot. 12:04 Comment From Saves VultureTop 3 American League RPs we should own in hopes of them taking over closing duties? Jason Collette: Farquhar, Santos, R. Webb 12:05 Comment From CaseyBut we can just pencil in Cabrera as the DH for the rest of his career after VMart leaves right? Gotta protect that asset. Jason Collette: Might as well if they can find a better glove man at 1st base on the FA market. 12:05 Comment From RushLogan Morrison – projection? Better at DH than Dunn? end game Jason Collette: 2 stints on the DL, 2 tweets that cause a ruckus, and a worse final season roto $ value than Dunn. 12:06 Comment From SchmidtHow would you rank the following for fantasy value this year: Kyle Gibson, Erasmo Ramirez, Tanner Scheppers, and Randall Delgado? Jason Collette: Erasmo Ramirez (#1 fan), Gibson, Delgado, Scheppers 12:06 Comment From YanksNuno hasn’t been sent to AAA yet. Is he in contention for a rotation spot? or long relief? Jason Collette: Would have to be the pen as Pineda has already won that final spot 12:07 Comment From AZHow worried should owners be about Fister? Jason Collette: At this point, I’d say 160 IP. Still doesn’t excuse the poor return Detroit got for him. 12:08 Comment From zurzlesWas offered Salazar and Abreu for Scherzer and Rizzo. I know that’s insane, but would it be SO insane to counter with Scherzer alone? Am I obsessed with shiny new toys? I have a lot of pitching and not a lot of power. Shallow league with 3 keepers. Jason Collette: Other guy would immediately dismiss it. Don’t bother. 12:09 Comment From Guestthoughts on Corey Hart this year? good for #5 OF? Jason Collette: Tough to overlook the 50 point gap in his wOBA at home vs the road. End game material for me in mixed leagues. 12:10 Comment From An OnlookerThoughts on Cabrera’s contract? Jason Collette: Unnecessary to do at this time and unnecessary in length. I don’t get the sense of urgency with it and even including vesting options. 12:11 Comment From Dr. MetHappy Friday! even happier for Grady Sizemore what a great story but can he play more than 1 month without a DL stint? Jason Collette: 33, 71, 0, 0 – those are his games played totals over the past four seasons. Add them up together and that’s the ceiling for what he does in 2014 12:12 Comment From Mike OltNow that I made the roster am I worth drafting? Jason Collette: Absolutely. I’m a big fan of your potential and you should eventually get the lion’s share of the PT at third base. 12:12 Comment From GSonI have a weak, very weak indeed, RP staff (just Tommy Hunter) and have been offered Kenley Jansen, Addie Russel and Yan Gomes for Sonny Gray (I have seven other SP’s).. do I grab that deal or let it go? Jason Collette: Get out of this chat and go do that deal right now! 12:13 Comment From Jeremy6 years of Starling Marte, or 1 year of Miggy Cabrera? Pirates front office won back a lot of points they lost by doing nothing to help the team this offseason. Jason Collette: Red Sox are paying David Ortiz over 2 seasons at age 38 what Miggy will make in one season at that age. Love what the Pirates did 12:13 Comment From ZachI know you love Homer Bailey as a darkhorse Cy Young this year, but what’s your level of confidence in that prediction? I ask mainly because in my 12-team keeper league, I have a potentially disastrous rotation: Jason Collette: I’m not joking about him being my non-Kershaw NL Cy pick. 100% confidence in him. 12:14 Comment From LaLooshM’s and Michael Taylor a match? A’s supposedly tiring of yet another one of their recent top prospects… Jason Collette: If there is an outfielder that is mobile and not injured, he should be on Seattle’s radar. 12:15 Comment From DonWhen do teams generally place their injured players on the DL? I have Jaime Garcia and I want to stash him in my DL slot, but I cannot do it until he put there by StL. Bonus question: what are the chances I am ever happy I stashed him? Jason Collette: That will start happening in earnest by 3pm Sunday. You’ll see a few teams announce that the dates have been back-dated and that is why you see guys playing in minor league games now rather than the final spring training games. As long as the player has not played in any “revenue-generating” games in AZ or FL, they can backdate the DL stint so the player can return to action as soon as next weekend. 12:16 Comment From BudAny upside to David Freese? No extra-base hits this spring is a little concerning… Jason Collette: He’s healthy, and that is what is most important. I like the Angels a lot in 2014 and he’s part of that equation for me. 12:17 Comment From TrippBullish or Bearish on Michael Pineda this year? Jason Collette: Bearish. I like what I’ve seen of the slider but velo is still a tad short of where he was and command of his pitches wasn’t where I’d like it. He went $6 in AL Tout (I think) and I had a $5 cap on him on my sheet. 12:18 Comment From KBWhat’s the word on Gausman? No room in rotation, but still on the roster, as far as I know? Jason Collette: For now, yea, but he seems destined for Triple-A. I’d prefer he go there to work as a starter and be able to slide in right away once one of the current guys doesn’t work out. 12:18 Comment From comeback kidswho makes a bigger fantasy impact between Grady Sizemore and Ryan Howard? Expectations for each? Jason Collette: I’ll take Howard’s power and use him in matchup plays all season. I can’t count on more than 250 PA from Sizemore. 12:19 Comment From Bo PorterI plan on hitting Jose Altuve fourth in the lineup at times this season. Will that have a positive or negative impact on his fantasy value? Jason Collette: Could hurt his steals, and that is why he’s taken in fantasy leagues. I’m now glad I didn’t keep him at $22 12:19 Comment From DanielYonder Alonso has had a nice spring. Breakout candidate? Jason Collette: He is what he is, and Petco will keep him that way. If the Padres relocate to an Arizona ballpark, all bets are off 12:21 Comment From sandyDo you think Desmond Jennings will improve his batting average and become a 20/20 guy this year? Jason Collette: He’s bulked up, and I’ve never doubted the steals. What has to change is his weakness for chasing high heat above his swing plane from RH. He runs into 1 of every 50, and then it starts setting him up to chase breaking stuff away. 12:22 Comment From BrianDeep NL only. Thoughts on Tom Koehler? Heard you and Eno talk about him briefly on the pod. Jason Collette: I like Jacob Turner there better. Koehler is a typical 5 guy for me 12:22 Comment From GuestErasmo or Mejia (assuming rotation spot)? Jason Collette: Erasmo….I have irrational admiration for him. 12:23 Comment From LaLooshJoe Blanton’s $7M has you up at night?! What the heck is going on???? Jason Collette: As someone who is currently paid as a freelance writer/talker, I’m jealous he makes that much to not work. 12:23 Comment From NedWith Pinto making the Twins roster, would you rather own him than Yan Gomes this year? Jason Collette: No, Gomes will get more playing time. If I could walk out of an AL auction with both of those guys, I would be grinning ear to ear. 12:24 Comment From GSonCarlos Carrasco wins the Indians fifth spot in their rotation.. is he worth picking up on game days to pad stats or too much of a risk? Jason Collette: Yea, Eno and I have discussed him on the podcast a few times and he has potential to do some good. 12:24 Comment From VicShould I trade Machado in a 5 x 5 AL only 10 team Keeper league through 2017 for Danny Salazar? Machado is 17, then 20, then 23, then 26 and Salazar is 7, then 10, then 13, then 16. Thanks. Jason Collette: Yes, immediately without haste. 12:24 Comment From CaliWhats your opinion of Mike Foltynewicz? Considering the Astros complete lack of a bullpen, is there any way he works himself into the closer role? Jason Collette: They’ll let him fail as a starter as long as they can before moving him into relief. Too much upside in that arm to throw him into the pen of a 95-100 loss team. 12:25 Comment From FredThose Abreu projections look like what I’m expecting from young Wil Myers, who do you like better this year? Jason Collette: I have both on my AL Tout Wars team – paid $26 for Abreu, $24 for Myers. That tells you where I am on them. 12:25 Comment From GSonCC Sabathia’s velo has become an issue.. or not? comment Jason Collette: I watched his start vs Pitt yesterday – saw him hit 89 3 times, sitting 86-88. I have 65/80 level of concern with him. 12:26 Comment From LaLooshOh that’s coming from a fan who has to suffer idiot owners like the Wilponzis… Jason Collette: get back to me after you had to suffer through years of Vince Naimoli 12:28 Comment From LaLooshJeez, what’s with the obsession about how much money Mike Ilitch spends on certain players?!? Who flippin’ cares? If 2 or 3 owners get into a spending race, it doesn’t mean that other owners have to follow them. No one is pointing a gun at anyone’s head to write blank checks. I’m so over that sanctimony. Jason Collette: It’s our job to analyze these moves and their future impacts. This does alter the market going foward just as A-Rod’s initial deal did. These things never go down, they only go up. If you look at the gap between revenue and salaries that exists now as Matt Swartz outlined this morning over at THT, Cabrera may not even be in the top 10 AAV’s over the final years of his contract. 12:28 Comment From Bonesbetter Keeper League stash – Polanco or Springer? Jason Collette: Springer – better overall roto package. 12:28 Comment From MikeHow many starts do you think Kevin Gausman will make this season? Jason Collette: 12 12:28 Comment From ChrisWho makes it to the big leagues first Oscar Taveras or Piscotty? Jason Collette: Taveras 12:29 Comment From KevinRobbie Ross intrigues me in a CJ Wilson redux way. Your thoughts on him and any other cheap AL only starting pitching sleepers? Thanks! Jason Collette: If they would have told Ross from the beginning of the offseason he was going to be a starter, then I agree. I asked Wilson 2 years ago when he started to prep for the transition from RP to SP and he said the day after the season ended. 12:30 Comment From VlietFinal stat line for Matt Adams. Jason Collette: .260/.310/.450 22 HR, 70 RBI over 520 PA 12:30 Comment From bucs_lose_againIshikawa can’t make the opening day roster, right? RIGHT?! Jason Collette: Sure he can, Sanchez needs a platoon partner. Or, channeling my inner Mike Ferrin…SIGN KENDRYS MORALES 12:31 Comment From brant parsonsWho is the one surprise guy going to be this season that nobody is talking about, but you think they should be? Jason Collette: Robbie Grossman 12:31 Comment From CaseyFor the next 4 seasons in a Dynastly league, do you take Wacha, Jonathan Gray, or Jameson Taillon? Jason Collette: Gray 12:31 Comment From Grand Admiral BraunOver/under on J. Reyes stolen bases this season: 40 Jason Collette: over on days on the DL, under on steals 12:31 Comment From BobFor Deep AL leaguers, who are your favorite utility IF and 4th OF? Thanks for the chat! Jason Collette: Semien, A. Almonte 12:32 Comment From RonJason, with your Erasmo love, I’ve seen others point to concerns with his elbow… Obviously you dont have the same concerns? Jason Collette: At the rate pitchers are falling these days, my level of concern is the same for all of them. Enjoy them while you can. I’d gladly roster him for $5-7 in an AL league. 12:32 Comment From Yoenis Envywho gets the most PA: Bonifacio, R.Weeks, or Josh Rutledge? Jason Collette: Rutledge is already in the minors….I’ll go with Bonifacio 12:33 Comment From Grand Admiral BraunY. Ventura worth owning in a 12-team/27 players per team mixed Non-Keeper where K/BB and QS are counted? Jason Collette: Yes, on K’s alone 12:33 Comment From GSonbetter future rotation-mates coming from the minors.. Jonathan Gray/Eddie Butler or Lucas Giolito/AJ Cole? Jason Collette: Gray/Butler — going to be so much fun to watch 12:34 Comment From Steve JeltzShould Matt Wisler be the Padres fifth starter? Jason Collette: He has 105 IP above A-ball. Fine with letting Erlin have that job for now with Wisler getting some tough love in El Paso and the PCL 12:34 Comment From JTI traded Baez and picks and Gray for Miggy and Profar in a dynasty. Am I genius, or did I just agree to pay $300 million for a decade? Jason Collette: You’re a genius 12:35 Comment From Peter AngelosDid someone say idiot owners? I’m here! Jason Collette: Am I cleared to still chat? 12:35 Comment From AJWhat becomes of Lonnie Chissenhall this season? Jason Collette: 3B/1B/DH..<400 PA 12:35 Comment From RyanAssuming health, when do you think Taveras gets the call this year…and who’s spot does he ultimately take? Jason Collette: just before the break and Bourjos’s spot, assuming health. 12:36 Comment From JustinAJ Pollock – sneaky 10/20 option this year? I’ve heard some “Mike Trout without the power” comparisons thrown around. Jason Collette: 10/20 definitely possible. 50% of Mike Trout absolute, perfect world, high on peyote view 12:36 Comment From RyanRex Brothers becomes the official closer on ______? Jason Collette: May 31st 12:37 Comment From Grand Admiral BraunAdam Dunn: .220/.320/.500 with 30 home runs. Too bullish? Jason Collette: dial it down 5 homers 12:37 Comment From Southside BobbyDoes Schoop make the opening day? Jason Collette: I don’t think so. I think addition of Lombardozzi clouds that, but we’ll see this weekend. 12:38 Comment From davidDate Victor Martinez gets 5 starts at catcher? worth stashing over someone like cody allen? Jason Collette: Absolutely, on both accounts. 12:39 Comment From JakeWith extensions while under team control looking more and more team friendly and FA paydays going past $7 mil a win, do more players test FA? Jason Collette: Potentially, although recent injury rates may cause more pitchers to jump at deals. Believe Passan tweeted out earlier that David Hernandez makes the 10th pitcher this spring to go down with a UCL tear. 12:39 Comment From TrippCody Allen becomes the official closer on _____? Jason Collette: September 31st. Believe in Axford 12:41 Comment From LaLooshthe sanctimony over rising pay for the elite few players in the league is complete nonsense. where is the outrage that a marquis franchise is being run into the ground by a failing and incompetent ownership group as the league stands by and does nothing. It’s a far bigger problem that the Mets are perennial doormat then the Tigers may have to have a fire sale 6 yrs from now. We hear this issue raised all the time regarding pay for the top five or six players but it never ruins the game, does it? Jason Collette: Nobody is defending the Mets, and we’re all critical of how the Phillies have been run. These salaries are not ruining the game as baseball isn’t hurting in the slightest financially. The gap between the haves and have nots has always been there, but the smart teams keep fighting that uphill battle. Detroit is taking a risk by paying 2 players $59M a season starting in 2016, and it eats away at their depth. We’re already seeing that now as they shoestring a shortstop position together and try to find a strong side platoon partner for Davis in LF 12:42 Comment From JustinGregory Polanco – May ETA? Jason Collette: Not unless he signs a pre-agency deal. 12:43 Comment From Southside BobbyAre you a believer in Hicks this year? Jason Collette: Not at all. I dislike most of the Twins save Pinto and Dozier on the offensive side. Bad bad team. 12:43 Comment From Ken PhelpsIs James Paxton the second best pitcher on the M’s this year? Jason Collette: Nope. Felix, Iwakuma, Erasmo..then Paxton IMO 12:44 Comment From DanWhat are we looking at with Gerrit Cole? Is his hype train going a bit too fast? Jason Collette: Not at all. Compare his hype train to that of Wacha and Salazar 12:45 Comment From JasonWait how often are the Tigers going to start V-Mart at C? Once a week, or multiple times a week? Jason Collette: enough for him to get to 10 games, which is the highest in-season qualification requirement on the market (ESPN leagues) 12:45 Comment From EIf Axford is worth believing in, and guys like Holland and Robertson go for $20, how much is Axford worth? Jason Collette: $13-14 12:46 Comment From TrippPercent chance Virginia beats Michigan St. tonight? Jason Collette: If I pick against Michigan State, my friend Kay Adams will never talk to me again. Sparty on! 12:46 Comment From GuestIdeal roseter size for 10 team 5×5? Jason Collette: 25 man rosters – add the second U and a 10th pitcher 12:47 Comment From cbtaylor jordan or odorizzi til minor comes back to start the year Jason Collette: Odorizzii – has more swing and miss stuff with the new change 12:47 Comment From RyanDo you think Nate Jones is locked into the 9th inning? Ventura has a history of going the opposite direction. Jason Collette: Honestly have no read on that situation. I’ve been grabbing shares of Daniel Webb in deep AL leagues 12:48 Comment From LaLooshAnd Rendon another… Jason Collette: Have Rendon everywhere I’ve been eligible to draft him. I’m a believer 12:48 Comment From LaLooshhow about Dionner Navarro for another surprise guy that no one is talking about? Jason Collette: Because his success last year was built upon a hyper-inflated HR/FB rate. Guy goes from an 8% rate to an 18% rate in a park where the wind was blowing out quite a bit. Rogers Centre is a good part to hit in as well, but I’ll take the under on 10 HRs with Navi 12:49 Comment From RobI can keep one of the following in an AL points league: Grossman, Suanders or Hicks. Jason Collette: Grossman 12:49 Comment From BATrade Nate Jones/Domonic Brown for Wil Myers in Keeper league? Too much? Jason Collette: In a heartbeat 12:49 Comment From JakeWhat’s the most mutually beneficial trade you can think of? Jason Collette: Rafael Montero for Didi Gregorius 12:50 Comment From BirdLoverWhat can we expect of Bundy? Is he going to make an impact for the O’s this here? Jason Collette: A very small one 12:50 Comment From davidBelieve in Tommy Hunter? Jason Collette: Not at all. Lefties are a huge issue for him and the ALE is loaded with good LH bats. 12:51 Comment From JakePHI entered the offseason seemingly in win now mode. Now there’s talk of moving Rollins, Lee, and others. What caused their change of heart? Jason Collette: They woke up and smelled the coffee? That’s bad roster construction and they’re clearly no better than the 3rd team in that division, and I’m being generous. 12:51 Comment From RyanBetter senior citizen season – Jeter or Rollins? Jason Collette: Rollins 12:52 Comment From davidRE: Victor Martinez: What date does he get it? They play five NL games within the first two weeks? Does he play all those games? Jason Collette: It sounded like Ausmus wanted to get V-Mart that time early on, so I would think he would get the 5 games before April is up. 12:52 Comment From commentonly had a sandwhich for lunch. should i get some Mcdonalds apple pies? Jason Collette: Big Mac, Filet-o-Fish, Quarter Pounder, french fries. Icy coke, milk shake, sundaes and apple pies. 12:53 Comment From BradThoughts on Michael Choice? Jason Collette: Nice fit for Texas if they decide to platoon him with Martin or use him on the extra tough LH matchups for Choo. Sneaky power potential there. 12:54 Comment From ChiSox HopeIs Daniel Webb the best reliever no one knows about/is talking about? Jason Collette: I like his potential a lot. Own a few shares in him already. I also liked what I saw from Josh Stinson the other night. That’s a legit breaking ball 12:54 Comment From Grand Admiral BraunHow many saves can I expect from Jose Veras and LaTroy Hawkins this season? Jason Collette: 35, with Veras getting more 12:55 Jason Collette: If you are interested in my predictions for the AL, here they are 12:56 Comment From JakeBest sitcom roomie pairing you can think of? My vote’s for Cliff Lee/Nick Swisher Jason Collette: Jonny Gomes & Nick Swisher 12:56 Comment From davidThanks Jason for the chat. So who is the next man up in Baltimore? Jason Collette: My $ is on Ryan Webb 12:56 Comment From JohnDynasty league for the next three years: Dylan Bundy or Jon Gray? Jason Collette: Gray 12:57 Comment From JTLast year, Erasmo crapped the bed so thoroughly I consciously passed on Gray, Salazar, and Kluber when they came up. He is history’s greatest monster. What’s different about him this year? Can he really pitch backwards as Eno has suggested his trying to do? Jason Collette: He can throw three pitches for strikes and has confidence to use them in different points of the count. I am a sucker for those types. 12:58 Comment From JTI traded Belt and Khris Davis for Matt Harvey and Maikel Franco in a dynasty: am I genius, or did I just buy a used-VCR that won’t rewind and predates AV cables? Jason Collette: Sweet betamax, bro. You gave up 2014 for the future 12:58 Comment From MarioOdds Napoli regains catcher eligibility? Jason Collette: 0.02% 12:58 Comment From Bobby ClarkeWho is faster in a foot race, Brett Gardner or Jacoby Ellsbury? Jason Collette: Gardner 12:58 Comment From Big JoeyGotta drop 2 of these guys, which 2 should I drop? Porcello, Ian Kenedy, Drew Hutchison, Quintana. Jason Collette: Hutch & Kennedy 12:59 Comment From Theos ImaginationWe know veras isnt the answer, and Strop seems like marmol reincarnated. Does Fujikawa close again for the cubs? Jason Collette: Why is Veras not the answer? 24% K rate last year, batters whiffed on 25% of the pitches he threw. I like that. 1:02 Comment From BrettAre the staff MVP predictions who you think will be the best player, or who you think will be voted the MVP? Because, you know: Mike Trout: 23 Miguel Cabrera: 2 Jason Collette: I went with who I felt will be the pick and also tried to make non-canned picks (see Cobb as CY) 1:02 Jason Collette: That’s all for today guys – busy schedule this afternoon. Thanks for the time!