JAWS and the 2025 Hall of Fame Ballot: CC Sabathia

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2025 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball-Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

When it comes to a 6-foot-6 power pitcher with a weight on par with an NFL offensive lineman, everything can seem outsized. Such was the case with CC Sabathia, who reached the majors as a fireballing 20-year-old lefty, refined his craft, and shouldered significant workloads while evolving into one of the game’s true aces. Over the course of a 19-year career (2001–19) with Cleveland, the Brewers, and the Yankees, Sabathia helped his teams reach the playoffs 11 times, made six All-Star teams, won a Cy Young award and a World Series ring, signed a record-setting contract, and reached milestones that may be unattainable for those following in his considerable footsteps.

Such stature doesn’t make even the most large-hearted person invulnerable, however. While at the height of his considerable success, Sabathia carried a huge secret: alcoholism. As he later explained through his own accounts, interviews, and a 2021 HBO documentary, from the time he was 14 years old, Sabathia was prone to binge drinking. He used alcohol to dull the pain and anger caused by the absence of his father, who dropped out of his life while he was in high school, re-emerged early in his professional career, and died prematurely in 2003. The pressure of living up to his seven-year, $161 million contract with the Yankees only exacerbated his problem, particularly as wear-and-tear injuries sapped his performance. Finally, in October 2015, with the Yankees about to play in the AL Wild Card Game, Sabathia sought help, entering a rehabilitation program and soon going public with his alcoholism as a way of holding himself accountable.

Fortunately, Sabathia regained control of his life and rejuvenated his career. No longer able to muster high velocities, he reinvented himself as a crafty lefty, pitched until his arm gave out, and mentored teammates and Black players around the game. Eligible for the Hall of Fame for the first time, Sabathia has a case backed by strong traditional statistics as well as advanced ones. Even the flaws serve to humanize him, and while the whole package may not add up to a first-ballot entry, he seems likely to wind up in Cooperstown sooner or later.

Carsten Charles Sabathia Jr. was born on July 21, 1980 in Vallejo, California, the only child of Carsten Charles (known as Corky) and Margie Sabathia, both of whom played critical roles in their son’s baseball development. Corky worked at the Mare Island Naval Shipyard in Vallejo and taught his son, a natural righty, to throw left-handed after he struggled upon being introduced to the sport. “I played one year of T-ball righthanded and couldn’t catch, was uncoordinated,” CC told reporters in 2011. “My dad changed me over, gave me a lefty glove and it just took.”

As a young child, CC threw grapefruits at a folding chair — a makeshift strike zone — in his maternal grandmother Ethel’s backyard. Corky built a mound for his son, coached his Little League teams, and instilled dreams of pitching for the Yankees. Margie, a telephone operator on the night shift at Travis Air Force Base, helped CC hone his pitching as well. A former fast-pitch softball player, she stands six feet tall herself. (Her father was 6-foot-9.) “She’d put the catcher’s gear on when I was younger,” Sabathia said in 2019. “She probably caught me from the time I was 7 or 8 until the time I was 13.” Because CC stood a head taller than his classmates even at eight years old, Margie always carried her son’s birth certificate to youth league games in case opponents protested.

Corky and Margie split amicably when CC was 12. Corky took a job at Concord Naval Weapons Station and moved in with Ethel; for awhile CC moved there as well, even while attending Vallejo High School. By junior year, he was 6-foot-6 and 245 pounds, starring as a power forward and a tight end while pulling double duty in baseball as a pitcher and first baseman. As a senior throwing 95 mph, he went 6-0 with a 0.77 ERA and 82 strikeouts in 46 innings while also hitting .586. Unfortunately, by this point Corky had drifted from his son’s life. “He didn’t see me play one high school baseball game,” Sabathia told HBO for the documentary Under the Grapefruit Tree. “He saw me play one high school football game, and no basketball games.”

Spurning scholarship offers from UCLA and other Division I football programs, Sabathia was described by Baseball America as “a cross between Dave Parker and Vida Blue” ahead of the 1998 amateur draft. He had a plus curve to go with his fastball, but his mechanics were unrefined and his weight — as high as 270 pounds — was a potential concern. Cleveland scout Paul Cogan appreciated Sabathia’s feel for pitching, and the team chose him with the 20th pick of the first round. He signed for a $1.3 million bonus, with Margie doing an end-run around his agents to negotiate directly with general manager John Hart after conversations bogged down.

Sabathia began his career with Burlington (North Carolina) of the Appalachian League. Still just 17, he was initially so homesick he inquired as to how much of his bonus he’d have to return if he quit. With his fastball reaching 97 mph and his changeup developing into a plus pitch as well, he struck out 35 hitters in 18 innings while posting a 4.50 ERA. A bone bruise in his elbow limited him to 16 starts across three levels of A-ball in 1999, but he pitched well enough (3.29 ERA, 10.0 K/9) to place 57th on BA’s Top 100 Prospects list the following spring. He split 2000 between High-A Kinston and Double-A Akron, putting up a 3.57 ERA with 9.8 strikeouts per nine in 146 innings — more than his 1998 and ’99 totals combined. While he participated in the All-Star Futures Game that year and was a finalist for the U.S. Olympic team, he didn’t make the squad because Cleveland didn’t like the plan of using him as a reliever.

Ahead of the 2001 season, Sabathia rocketed to no. 7 on BA’s Top 100 Prospects list, with the publication gushing:

He has a tremendous fastball that consistently sits at 97-98 mph, a good changeup, terrific feel for pitching and off-the-charts makeup. He’s intelligent and coachable, a ferocious competitor, and at 6-foot-7 and upward of 260 pounds he can be an intimidating presence on the mound. He’s strong with durable mechanics… He needs to continue to refine his breaking ball and changeup, and his body is always going to be a concern.

After missing the playoffs in 2000 for the first time since the 1994 players’ strike, Cleveland — with a lineup that still included future Hall of Famers Roberto Alomar and Jim Thome as well as Ellis Burks, Juan Gonzalez, Kenny Lofton, and Omar Vizquel — brought the 20-year-old Sabathia to the majors despite his having just 17 starts in the upper minors. He debuted with a 5 2/3-inning start against the Orioles on April 8, 2001, holding them scoreless after allowing a first-inning three-run homer to Jeff Conine.

Though Sabathia didn’t lower his ERA or FIP below 5.00 until June 12, the team’s potent offense propelled him to a 17-5 record to accompany a 4.39 ERA (102 ERA+) and 171 strikeouts (seventh in the league) in 180 1/3 innings. Cleveland won the AL Central; Sabathia overcame five walks in six innings in his Division Series Game 3 start against the Mariners, a 17-2 rout that gave his team a two-games-to-one advantage in the best of five. Even so, Seattle rallied to win the series. Later, Sabathia placed second for the AL Rookie of the Year award behind Ichiro Suzuki, who received 27 out of 28 first place votes and also won the MVP.

Like several of Cleveland’s other key players, Sabathia signed an extension that bought out his pre-free agency years; in his case, it was a four-year, $9.5 million deal covering his 2002-05 seasons with a club option for ’06. Over that four-year span, he posted a 4.03 ERA (108 ERA+) while averaging 198 innings and 3.0 WAR for a team in transition, one that dipped to 74-88 while trading Bartolo Colon to the Expos and firing manager Charlie Manuel in mid-2002. Amid losing seasons in 2003 and ’04, Sabathia earned All-Star honors, with a 3.60 ERA (122 ERA+) and 3.7 WAR in ’03 representing his best season within this stretch. In April 2005, Sabathia reworked his $7 million club option for ’06 into a guarantee with an additional two years and $17.75 million. While Cleveland finished second in the AL Central with 93 wins in 2005, Sabathia was basically league average, though he did lower his walk rate below 3.0 per nine for the first time.

Alas during that period Sabathia dealt with considerable loss in his life. Corky Sabathia died of stomach cancer in 2003. While he and his son had reunited in 1999 — Corky even moved in with CC and his wife Amber in Cleveland — he revealed he was suffering from HIV; only later did CC discover that he his father had battled addiction as well. Over the next year, Sabathia lost an uncle and a cousin as well.

Sabathia emerged as an ace in 2006. Despite straining an oblique on Opening Day, costing him the rest of April and limiting him to 192 2/3 innings, he placed third in the league with a 3.22 ERA (139 ERA+) while posting a career-low 2.1 per nine walk rate, and 8.0 strikeouts per nine, his highest rate since his rookie season. His six complete games and two shutouts both led the league, while his 4.6 WAR ranked eighth, his first time cracking the top 10. Only a 12-11 record for a 78-84 team prevented him from drawing Cy Young consideration.

After four straight seasons of minor dings that prevented him from reaching 200 innings, Sabathia threw a major league-high 241 across 34 starts in 2007, going 19-7 with a 3.21 ERA (141 ERA+), a career-high 209 strikeouts (7.8 K/9), and a minuscule 1.4 walks per nine. He made his third All-Star team, beat out Josh Beckett for the AL Cy Young, and helped Cleveland to 96 wins and its first division title since 2001. He might have been gassed by October, however, as he was lit for an 8.80 ERA across his three playoff starts — one against the Yankees in the Division Series and two against the Red Sox in the ALCS. Most notably, he allowed four runs in six innings opposite Beckett in ALCS Game 5, when Cleveland had a three-games-to-one lead and a chance to clinch, but Boston stormed back to take the series in seven.

On July 7, 2008, with the team 37-51 and Sabathia just 6-8 with a 3.83 ERA, GM Mark Shapiro dealt his ace to the Brewers in exchange for a four-player package headlined by 2007 first-rounder Matt LaPorta; player to be named later Michael Brantley proved the best of the batch. With the Brewers trying to end a 26-year playoff drought, and with a massive free agent payday on the line, Sabathia literally and figuratively let it all hang out. He began the second half with three straight complete game victories, and by the end of August, had gone 8-0 with a 1.43 ERA while averaging eight innings per start with Milwaukee, interjecting himself into the NL Cy Young race.

Capped by Sabathia’s one-hit shutout of the Pirates on August 31, the Brewers entered September 80-56, 4 1/2 games behind the Cubs in the NL Central but 5 1/2 up on the Phillies for the Wild Card spot. After a 3-11 tailspin cost manager Ned Yost his job, under interim manager Dale Sveum, Sabathia made his final three starts each on three days of rest, allowing just two earned runs (and four unearned ones) in 21 2/3 innings. The Brewers took the last two of those, including Sabathia’s complete-game four-hitter against the Cubs on the season’s final day, clinching the team’s long-sought postseason berth.

The Brewers’ stay proved brief. Again on three days of rest in Division Series Game 2 against the Phillies, Sabathia yielded five runs in 3 2/3 innings, four via Shane Victorino’s grand slam. Philadelphia won in four games and went on to win the World Series.

Sabathia finished 17-10 with a 2.70 ERA (156 ERA+) and 251 strikeouts in 253 innings, leading the majors with 10 complete games and five shutouts. His 7.2 WAR (including offense) tied Johan Santana for second among all pitchers, behind only Tim Lincecum. On the strength of his 1.65 ERA in 130 2/3 innings as a Brewer, he placed fifth in the NL Cy Young voting and sixth in the MVP voting.

The top free agent that winter, Sabathia received an offer for a six-year, $140 million contract from the Yankees on November 14, the first day they could negotiate. They had just missed the playoffs for the first time since the strike, and were set to christen their new ballpark the following spring. While the Brewers, Giants, and Red Sox also pursued him, the Yankees landed him after GM Brian Cashman flew to meet the Sabathia family in Vallejo and to increase the team’s bid to seven years and $161 million — the largest ever for a pitcher to that point — with an opt-out after three years, a rarity at the time. The move was the first of several key ones for the retooling Yankees, who also inked free agent first baseman Mark Teixeira and righty A.J. Burnett. As Cashman told HBO, “We felt [Sabathia] could impact our clubhouse with his character and lovable nature, and obviously the performance out on that field… You could transform a franchise with that ball in his hand.”

His Yankees career began in inauspicious fashion, as Sabathia walked five Orioles without striking out any in a 4 1/3-inning, six-run dud on Opening Day. He scuffled through the first month before finding his footing, and followed a 3.83 ERA first half with a 2.74 ERA second half, finishing fourth in the league at 3.37 (137 ERA+). He won an AL-high 19 games, struck out 197 in 230 innings, and ranked third with 6.2 WAR. He would finish fourth in the Cy Young voting, but he was hunting even bigger game.

With a three-man rotation of Sabathia, Burnett, and Andy Pettitte, the Yankees stormed through October, sweeping the Twins in the Division Series, and then winning a six-game ALCS over the Angels and a six-game World Series over the Phillies. Sabathia was brilliant, posting a 1.98 ERA in 35 innings across five starts, including a pair of eight-inning, one-run efforts against the Angels in Games 1 and 4 of the ALCS, the latter on three days of rest. In the World Series opener, he allowed just two runs (both via Chase Utley solo homers) in seven innings of a 6-1 loss. Returning again on three days of rest for Game 4, he gutted out 6 2/3 innings and allowed three runs, with Utley hitting an RBI double and another solo homer against him. The Yankees held a 4-3 lead when Sabathia came out, but the Phillies tied the game against the bullpen before Johnny Damon’s mad dash from first to third keyed a three-run ninth inning that gave the Yankees a 7-4 victory and a three-games-to-one advantage. They clinched their 27th world championship three days later.

Sabathia more or less replicated his 2009 performance in each of the next two seasons, earning All-Star honors both times and extending the most productive stretch of his career. His AL-high 21 wins in 2010 made him a member of the Black Aces, the small fraternity of African American pitchers who won at least 20 games in an AL or NL season — a goal of Sabathia’s since fellow Black Ace Mudcat Grant planted the seed in his mind when he was 18. He accompanied that win total with a 3.18 ERA (136 ERA+) and 4.8 WAR, respectively seventh and eighth in the AL. He placed third in the AL Cy Young voting that year, and fourth in 2011, after his best season as a Yankee in terms of ERA (3.00, ninth in the league), WAR (6.4, third), and strikeouts (230, second) while going 19-8. He took a loss and two no-decisions in pursuit of his 20th win — all with pitch counts of 119 or higher — then bypassed one more chance to reach the milestone in favor of resting for the postseason.

Alas, Sabathia didn’t pitch well in the playoffs in either of those years. While the Yankees again swept the Twins in the Division Series in 2010, they were ousted by the Rangers in a six-game ALCS. Sabathia posted a 5.63 ERA across three starts, the best of them a six-inning, two-run outing in Game 5 of the ALCS, where he worked around 11 hits allowed. After the season, he underwent surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his right knee, an injury that had nagged him all season and one that prompted him to shed 25 pounds (down to 290) by cutting out his box-a-day Cap’n Crunch breakfasts.

In 2011, Sabathia’s start in the Division Series opener against the Tigers was suspended after two innings due to heavy rain. When play resumed the next evening, he was replaced by scheduled Game 2 starter Iván Nova, while the Tigers’ Justin Verlander gave way to Doug Fister. The Yankees won 9-2, but lost Games 2 and 3, the latter of which featured both aces on two days of rest; Sabathia walked six and gave up four runs in 5 1/3 innings in Detroit’s 5-4 win. He got four outs in relief in Game 5 but allowed a run in a 3-2 loss that ended the Yankees’ season.

After the season, the 31-year-old Sabathia used the leverage of his opt-out clause to get an extension. Initially scheduled to earn $92 million ($23 million per year) for 2012–15, he netted an additional $25 million salary for ’16 and a $25 million vesting option — centered around concerns regarding his shoulder — with a $5 million buyout for ’17. He told reporters that he and his family loved New York, saying, “It was never a question about money… I want to make sure I end my career as a Yankee and, hopefully, I’ve done that.”

Sabathia threw more innings from 2001–11 (2,364 1/3) than any pitcher besides fellow 1998 draftee (and current Hall candidate) Mark Buehrle, while producing 50.6 WAR, a mark surpassed only by Roy Halladay (65.4), Santana (51.7), and Roy Oswalt (51.1); those comparisons include their modest offensive contributions, which in Sabathia’s case amounted to 0.8 WAR. From 2006–11, the best stretch of his career, only Halladay (38.7 WAR) surpassed his 35.5 WAR, with Verlander’s 28.1 a distant third. Among pitchers with at least 1,000 innings over the latter stretch, Sabathia’s 142 ERA+ ranked third, behind only Halladay (149) and Santana (144).

In 2012, Sabathia missed 36 days due to a groin strain and elbow inflammation; while selected for the All-Star team for the third straight season, he was sidelined for the event. According to PITCHf/x, his average four-seam fastball velocity slipped from 93.9 mph in 2011 to 92.4 in ’12. His 200 innings and 197 strikeouts represented solid totals, but his 3.38 ERA (125 ERA+) and 3.3 WAR both marked a step down from that six-season run. Sabathia later admitted that 2012 was when his drinking began to have a serious impact upon his job.

Still he closed the season in particularly strong fashion, allowing just four runs over his final 24 innings in a trio of eight-inning starts against the A’s, Twins, and Red Sox. The Yankees (95-67) won the division by two games over the Orioles and secured the top seed in the newfangled playoff format. Facing the Wild Card-winning Orioles in the Division Series, Sabathia turned in his best October performance since 2009, going 8 2/3 innings while allowing two runs in the opener and throwing complete game victory in Game 5, allowing four hits and one run while striking out nine.

The workload — 120 pitches in Game 1 and 121 in Game 5 — and the emotional expenditure may have caught up to Sabathia. He was chased in the fourth inning of Game 4 of the ALCS against the Tigers after allowing 11 hits and six runs; the Yankees were swept.

After the season, Sabathia underwent surgery to remove a bone spur in his elbow, one discovered prior to his 2008 trade. While he made 32 starts covering 211 innings in 2013, and notched his 200th career victory on July 3 against the Twins, his average four-seamer slipped another 1.2 mph to 91.2, with his ERA ballooning to 4.78 (84 ERA+) and his WAR dropping to zero. The Yankees slipped to third in the AL East with 85 wins, and Sabathia ended the season sidelined by a Grade 2 hamstring strain.

Between his subpar performance and the death of a cousin at age 45 due to heart disease, Sabathia again embarked upon a weight-loss regimen, this time shedding a reported 40 pounds (to 275) by cutting carbohydrates and increasing the intensity of his workouts. As he told ESPN New York’s Wallace Matthews, he felt that his previous big drop (after the 2010 season) had cost him strength, an observation that echoed industry consensus. “I lost a lot of weight, but I wasn’t physically ready to go out and play. So this year was just all about training and getting ready to play.”

Sabathia also began working to integrate a cut fastball into his repertoire, a pitch he learned from Pettitte. Unfortunately, the experiment went on hold after a wobbly eight-start run when Sabathia again landed on the DL due to right knee inflammation. He was diagnosed with a degenerative condition in the cartilage. The inflammation persisted despite cortisone and stem cell injections; he didn’t pitch again that season.

While Sabathia pitched 167 1/3 innings in 2015, he was again diminished, though his wearing of a bulky knee brace in early September did help him shave nearly half a run off what ended up as a 4.73 ERA mark. Though the Yankees claimed a Wild Card berth, on October 5 he left the team to check into an alcohol rehabilitation facility to address his drinking, a move prompted by his having spent the final weekend of the regular season in Baltimore (during which he did not pitch) on a binge that began after he secured the division-clinching victory against the Red Sox on October 1.

“I love baseball and I love my teammates like brothers, and I am also fully aware that I am leaving at a time when we should all be coming together for one last push toward the World Series,” said Sabathia in a statement. “It hurts me deeply to do this now, but I owe it to myself and to my family to get myself right. I want to take control of my disease, and I want to be a better man, father and player.”

While Sabathia drew criticism in less enlightened quarters for supposedly quitting on the team, Cashman and manager Joe Girardi backed him emphatically. “CC has demonstrated a great deal of courage in trying to tackle this problem,” Cashman said. “Time and place have no bearing. There is something here that needs to be taken care of, and I applaud him… It is bigger than the [Wild Card] game.”

Having sought the much-needed help, a healthier Sabathia emerged in 2016. Now fully committed to wearing the brace, he also emerged with a remade arsenal, relying upon a sinker-slider-cutter repertoire instead of his fading four-seamer. Though his ERA was above 5.00 in April, he ran off a seven-start stretch with an 0.82 ERA from May 4–June 16, and finished with a 3.91 ERA (110 ERA+) and 3.1 WAR for a mediocre team that missed the playoffs. His $25 million option for 2017 vested, and while he missed a month due to IL stints for a hamstring strain and right knee inflammation — by this point he required the lubricant Synvisc to manage his arthritic condition — his renaissance continued. He went 14-5 with a 3.69 ERA (122 ERA+) and 2.8 WAR for a 91-win team that claimed a Wild Card berth.

No longer expected to pitch deep into October games, Sabathia performed well in the aggregate, posting a 2.37 ERA in four starts against Cleveland and Houston totaling 19 innings, though he left Game 7 of the ALCS after allowing five hits and three walks (but just one run). Here it’s worth noting that game was played at Minute Maid Park, at the height of the Astros’ illegal sign-stealing operation, which helps to explain his zero strikeouts and three swinging strikes in a 65-pitch outing.

A free agent for the first time since 2008, Sabathia returned to the fold on a one-year deal for $10 million plus incentives. Still capable of mustering the occasional magic, but also subject to early hooks, not to mention IL stints for a hip strain and knee maintenance, he posted a 3.65 ERA (115 ERA+) and 1.8 WAR in 153 innings. He lasted just three innings in the decisive Game 4 of the Yankees’ Division Series loss to the Red Sox, again netting just three swinging strikes over 59 pitches against a team that also was later found to have illegally stolen signs.

Sabathia finished 2018 with 246 wins and 2,986 strikeouts, putting a pair of major milestones within reach. In December, when final luxury tax figures were reported, the Associated Press noted the Yankees paid Sabathia a $500,000 bonus despite his falling two innings shy of the threshold to trigger it; he had been ejected from his September 27 start against the Rays for hitting a batter in retaliation for a Rays pitcher throwing behind a Yankees hitter.

By that point, Sabathia had re-signed on a one-year, $8 million deal, undergone his third right knee cleanup procedure, and endured a health scare that led to his decision to make 2019 his final season. While working out in December, he experienced chest pain, increased sweating, and fatigue. Doctors discovered he had a 90 percent blockage in an artery leading to his heart, and on December 11, he underwent an angioplasty to clear the blockage.

Those medical issues delayed his 2019 debut until April 13, the season’s 14th game. Sabathia’s on-again, off-again campaign included three more trips to the IL for right knee issues that deteriorated his performance; he posted a 3.48 ERA through May 22, before the first of those stints, and a 5.86 mark thereafter. By that point, he had notched his 3,000th strikeout, whiffing former teammate John Ryan Murphy in an April 30 game against the Diamondbacks.

Sabathia became the 17th pitcher to reach the 3,000-strikeout milestone, but just the third lefty, after Steve Carlton and Randy Johnson — a situation that appears to owe to a comparative scarcity of southpaws over the past three decades, not to mention some hard-luck stories prior. Clayton Kershaw, who is 32 strikeouts away, is poised to be the fourth, but the only other active lefty with over 1,800 is Chris Sale (2,414).

Sabathia’s pursuit of his 250th victory was a grind, requiring four starts after his late-May IL stint. He did so on June 19, 2019 against the Rays — with whom he’d had a spicy shouting match on May 19 — at Tropicana Field with a six-inning, one-run performance. He notched another win in his next turn, but after a pair of quality starts when coming off the IL in July, he eked out just 24 1/3 innings over his final seven starts, none longer than 4 1/3 innings.

Sabathia attended the 2019 All-Star Game in Cleveland in an honorary capacity. AL manager Alex Cora, his former teammate in 2005, invited him to give a pregame speech, throw out a ceremonial first pitch, and make a ninth-inning trip to the mound for an additional ovation.

Sabathia’s final outing, a scoreless inning in Tampa Bay (where else?) was his only regular season relief appearance. A bout of shoulder soreness kept him off the Division Series roster against the Twins, but he returned for the ALCS against the Astros. Working in relief, he retired Brantley on a groundout in the 10th inning of Game 2, then departed after retiring two of the four batters he faced in Game 4, having suffered a shoulder subluxation on a pitch to Aledmys Díaz. “I’m done,” he told manager Aaron Boone and trainer Steve Donohue.

The Yankee Stadium crowd — and the Astros’ dugout — gave Sabathia an ovation as he exited the field for the final time. The next day he explained his shoulder injury to the media, noting that at that point, his knee pain was “always an eight” on a scale of 10, and that during his final season he needed a two-and-a-half-hour treatment regimen just to throw a 15-minute bullpen session. He closed the presser on a high note, when asked about his favorite part of pitching:

“I always felt like being the pitcher, the game stopped and started on me. And I kind of felt like I was in control all the time, and that was just the best part about it. 50,000 people in the Bronx and shit don’t start until I’m ready.”

…

Though often discussed in the context of a future Hall of Famer near the end of his career and since, Sabathia’s election isn’t automatic. His case does have an old-school appeal that starts with his win total — yes, wins are a very imperfect measure of value, you’re preaching to the choir here — at a time when no active pitcher appears likely to reach 250. Verlander, with 262, has already surpassed that mark, but Zack Greinke (224) didn’t pitch at all in 2024, and both Max Scherzer (216) and Kershaw (212) have been beset by injuries lately. The next-highest active pitcher is Gerrit Cole at 153, and so even 200 represents a climb.

The situation is similar regarding strikeouts, a category where Sabathia’s total of 3,093 ranks 18th all-time. Kershaw is poised to become the 20th pitcher to reach the 3,000 milestone, but after him, Sale and Cole (2,251) are the only ones within 900 of the mark. Of the 15 pitchers with 250 wins and 3,000 strikeouts, all are enshrined save for Roger Clemens, who’s been left in the cold due to his PED links, and the still-active Verlander.

Via the Bill James Hall of Fame Monitor, which gives credit for awards, league leads, milestones, and postseason performance (10-7 with a 4.28 ERA in 130 1/3 innings in this case, a mixed bag), Sabathia’s score of 128 is just shy of a “virtual cinch” (130), but equal to Pettitte, and ahead of every active or recently retired pitcher save for Verlander (240), Kershaw (211), and Scherzer (179), though Cole (124) is already close.

The biggest knock on Sabathia’s candidacy from a traditional standpoint is his 3.74 ERA, which is higher than all but two enshrined pitchers, Red Ruffing (3.80) and Jack Morris (3.90). Advanced metrics provide better perspective. Sabathia pitched in a high-offense era and, particularly during his time with the Yankees, in hitter-friendly parks. His 116 ERA+ is well beyond those of Ruffing (109) and Morris (105), and ahead of 20 other enshrined pitchers as well, though many have at least 1,000 more innings under their belts. Speaking of normalizing, as I noted at the time he reached 3,000, Sabathia’s 114 K%+ — that is, 14% better than his leagues via a calculation that accounts for the sharp increase in strikeouts over time — is the third-lowest of the 19 pitchers at that plateau, ahead of only Phil Niekro (105) and Greg Maddux (100).

Such adjustments are incorporated into WAR. Sabathia ranked in his league’s top three three times not including 2008, when he tied for second in the majors; he also had two other top-10 finishes. His 62.3 career WAR (including offense) is tied with Mickey Welch (a Hall of Famer) and David Cone (not a Hall of Famer) for 54th, ahead of 23 of the 66 enshrined non-Negro Leagues starters. His 39.4 adjusted seven-year peak score ranks 60th, 1.4 points below the standard but smack-dab in the middle of the enshrinees; the 33 below him include no-doubters such as Jim Palmer and John Smoltz, as well as 300-game winners John Clarkson, Pud Galvin, Tim Keefe, Nolan Ryan, Don Sutton, Welch, and Early Wynn. Sabathia’s 50.8 S-JAWS ranks 55th, 6.1 points below the standard and ahead of 26 of the 66 enshrinees.

As I noted in my recent update on the candidacies of Buehrle and Pettitte, Sabathia has the stronger case, with some daylight between himself and the other two (not to mention ballot newcomer Félix Hernández) in terms of S-JAWS:

Three and a half points of S-JAWS may not seem like much, but as that percentile column shows, Sabathia’s score is in the 39th percentile relative to Hall starters — mid-second quartile — where Buerhle and Pettitte are near the bottom, much closer to Hernández because of the way the scores are distributed.

While Sabathia is a bit short of the S-JAWS standard, he stands out relative to his contemporaries given his full résumé, complete with a Cy Young, a championship, a couple of big traditional milestones, and a comparatively high WAR-based peak. Particularly with workloads diminishing, we won’t see his kind again; nobody born after 1966 has topped his 3,577 1/3 innings, and Sabathia was born 14 years later. Combine his numbers with a very human and very public story of addiction and recovery, and a spotlight as one of the most prominent Black voices in the game, and it’s a compelling package. He’ll be on my ballot.

If not for his struggles with alcohol, perhaps Sabathia could have been even better, but realistically given his workloads, it’s tough to imagine a much higher ceiling. At the risk of sounding somewhat crotchety, it’s unlikely that pitchers of today will accomplish all that he did. Sabathia was great. His numbers and his story are worthy of a plaque in Cooperstown.