Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat –12/17/24

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon! And welcome to (finally) my first FanGraphs chat of December 2024. It has once again been too long, and as evidence for how rusty I am, I promoted this on the socials for being at 2 pm (ye olde slotte) instead of noon. So, thank you to those who figured it out without my help.

Jay Jaffe: I had a great time with my FG colleagues at the Winter Meetings last week. After illness and other issues cut into our group last year, we had a very full lineup, and we ate well and had a lot of laughs.

Jay Jaffe: I’m deep into my Hall of Fame series. The King Félix piece went up yesterday https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jaws-and-the-2025-hall-of-fame-ballot-feli…

Jay Jaffe: The Russell Martin one is planned for tomorrow.

Rich Allen and the Ebonistics: Finally!

Jay Jaffe: Dick Allen’s election was so overdue that I felt more relief than joy. It’s a bittersweet moment — he’s gotten the recognition he deserves, but isn’t around to enjoy it. In retrospect, the Phillies’ move to retire his number in September 2020, just a few months before his death, looms large as he did at least get that moment in the sun. And for whatever my perturbances are when it comes to squaring Dave Parker’s lackluster JAWS with his election, I’m glad he’s around to accept the honor because these post-death elections are really not the best way to do it.

Jay Jaffe: For those who didn’t get the reference to the chat name above, that was the moniker Allen used when he released a single in 1968.

Jay Jaffe: Probably for the best he kept his day job, honestly.

Talfred: Do you think the Yankees are determined to get Judge out of center field, or would they be open to having him play there full-time again if the roster comes together that way?

Jay Jaffe: they’d have kept him in center if they re-signed Soto, so I don’t think this was a hardline decision, just a preference. If they somehow landed Mookie Betts in a trade (man, that’d be weird), they’d probably do it that way too (assuming they didn’t have a vacancy at 2B), but I imagine by the time you get down the list — and it’s not that much further down — to Kyle Tucker you’d have a Tucker-Dominguez-Judge outfield as the first choice

Idiotic Failson: “Caleb Durbin is our 2b” always felt like “Bubba Crosby is our LF” for NY, but even that is now implausible as they traded Mr. Durbin for a closer. What in the world are the Yankees going to do with 2B?

Jay Jaffe: Willie Randolph is sitting by the phone, waiting.

Jay Jaffe: I really don’t know. I suppose it’s possible they bring back Torres because the other FA options are basically stopgaps. I don’t think Oswaldo Cabrera or DJ LeMahieu is an acceptable option to take into spring training so they’ll have to scare up a trade somewhere.

J Co: Hi Jay and Happy Holidays.  I really enjoy your work on the HOF.  What is your take on entertainment value of a player as it pertains to the HOF?  Does it and how does it factor in to your votes.  For example, Vlad Guerrero was shy of the JAWS standard for RF, but he was in my opinion a very entertaining player to watch, so I think it was easy for voters to select him.  Likewise, I think Ichiro’s entertainment value makes him a very easy yes vote even if his advanced stats might have otherwise given some voters pause.

Jay Jaffe: Thanks for the kind words. The entertainment value is secondary but… not insignificant. I actually have some thoughts on this, esp. vis-à-vis Ichiro, that I’ll air sometime after the election

drplantwrench: im a big believer in using all 10 votes and a more inclusive HoF and ive seen a lot of ballots that only use 3.  what are your thoughts on using a limited number of votes vs using all 10?

Jay Jaffe: I’ve gotten out of the business of commenting on individual ballots but good lord those 3-name ones annoy the piss out of me. These are the most gatekeep-ass voters around, and seem to think if they vote for too many candidates — more than they can count with the fingers they’re not using to stroke their smug faces — that there might be too much joy somewhere. AND WE CAN’T HAVE THAT

drplantwrench: who is the next Angel to be voted into the HoF?

Jay Jaffe: Albert Pujols, eligible 2029 ballot (but he’ll wear a Cardinals cap because duh).

Jay Jaffe: So if you’re not counting him, it’s Mike Trout.

Jay Jaffe: It ain’t Bobby Grich, alas.

Barry M.: Roki Sasaki prediction?

Jay Jaffe: The Padres seem like the most obvious fit. Maybe the Giants? I suspect West Coast.

Tim: What is a reasonable expectation for Tomoyuki Sugano? As an O’s fan, I find it mildly dispiriting that we are reaching back to the 2017 WBC for performance clips.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t have a great read on him myself and haven’t had time to do much homework but his high-grounder, low-walk, meh-strikeout rate combo suggest something along the lines of Hiroki Kuroda but with slightly better velo.

HOF series: Thanks for the HOF series. I’m not exactly interested in the Hall of Fame, but I’m always struck by what I’ve forgotten about these people — did Dave Parker really play for the Brewers, for instance? Well, yes, he did, even though I only remember him winding up with Oakland. Much appreciated.

Jay Jaffe: it’s a gas to revisit these guys’ careers and see some of the detours they took. Baseball from 1989-91 was particularly off my radar as I was in college and mostly without a TV so there are player-team combos that I have no memory of, and Parker-Brewers is definitely one of them. For that matter, while they both predate my baseball consciousness, Dick Allen on the A’s always seems weird, as does Dick Allen on the Dodgers

Jay Jaffe: Anyway, glad you enjoy!

Mike Trout: I keep seeing that Juan Soto will eventually be a DH but is there any reason he couldn’t move to 1B instead?

Jay Jaffe: I suppose it’s possible but it ain’t as easy as it looks (tell ’em, Wash!), and not every outfield convert is Bryce Harper, somebody who really throws himself into such a move.

1B-related HOF note: I’m reading Dave Parker’s autobiography Cobra, done in collaboration with Dave Jordan. It’s outstanding (great gift idea for the baseball fan in your life) but what I was not aware of was that the Pirates in the early/mid-’70s had such an outfield logjam that they tried Parker at first base before eventually moving Willie Stargell there permanently c. 1975.

David: Are you optimistic about Holmes becoming a starter with the Mets?

Jay Jaffe: I like the move more than the Frankie Montas signing, and think he can be solid. The Mets did pretty well revitalizing the careers of Severino, Manaea, and Quintana and Holmes does have good stuff, so I bet it works out

Roman: Thanks for all the chats and articles this year. Perhaps this is too machiavellian, but if the As are solely concerned with hitting the salary minimum, why aren’t they using their “cap space” to take on underwater contracts that would come with prospects attached (arenado, montgomery, etc)? Giving up picks for Severino and Springs doesn’t make sense

Jay Jaffe: A good question though Arenado did not include them on his trade list (Dodgers, Angels, Padres, Mets, Phillies, Red Sox) so that ain’t happening.

Jay Jaffe: I think mostly they want to look busy and get the union off their backs, actual roster planning is secondary

StiebTea: Oh! I have been looking forward to the Martin piece … and not only because I know you have been hinting at some surprises. Any spoilers you can share ahead of time? Martin > Molina? etc. …and welcome back, Jay.

Jay Jaffe: Martin is right near the top of the scale when it comes to pitch-framing. He’s a Molina-like candidate but with somewhat better offense but not as good an arm. Unfortunately, Molina crowded him out of the Gold Gloves and he never made the World Series, but the guy was a better ballplayer than some people realize.

wheelhouse: am I wrong to be hard out on christian walker as a free agent? giving a 34-year-old righty 1B-only with a very-good-not-great bat is the sort of thing that bites teams in the ass all the time

Jay Jaffe: he’s a legitimately plus defender (“actual difference-making first base defense,” to use Ben Clemens’ words, and Ben watched a ton of video to vote for the Fielding Bible Awards), which raises his floor. I share your concerns to some degree but so long as he’s not expected to be the middle-of-the-lineup stud, I think on a three-year deal, he’d probably be fine

Idiotic Failson: Do you think Judge could hit 100 HR a year in the KBO or NPB?

Jay Jaffe: That’s a fun question to contemplate. I wonder what Dan Szymborski would project!

Jay Jaffe: I’ll say “no” but only because he’d get tired running around the bases so often.

Uncle Spike: Tell us something interesting about members of the Fangraphs staff.

Jay Jaffe: Davy Andrews is an excellent baker! Michael Baumann spends more time talking about college baseball than the folks at Baseball America! Jon Becker has amazing spreadsheets! I can’t share too much more without violating the staff omerta though.

Third Base Standings: With the election of Rolen, Beltre, and (now) Allen, is third base better and more fully represented in the Hall than it was before? Or does work need to be done still?

Jay Jaffe: That’s an improvement but there are still only 18 non-Negro Leagues/Black baseball third basemen, compared to 23 shortstops and 29 right fielders, which is the non-pitcher high. More work to be done

Phil: Why do you think there seems to be so much divergence in opinion about Triston Casas? I thought you stats guys loved walk-taking power guys, but Dan S. seemed unimpressed, and folks have opined about the rumored Casas for Castillo trade as being lopsided in both directions, which seems paradoxical.

Jay Jaffe: I really don’t know, unless it’s the subpar defensive metrics that have limited his value. I’d love to see Casas get a full major league season together; he seems like a good building block, but sometimes I have no idea what the Red Sox are doing when it comes to position players. I thought, for example, that Connor Wong’s defensive shortcomings made keeping Kyle Teel an obvious choice but I guess they wanted Crochet more, and i get that.

StiebTea: As starter usage and expectations continue to change, do you think career evaluations will continue shifting toward peak weight and away from longevity? I know in the past you have stressed the seven year peak … might that shorten? (Is it already?) I promise this is not a disguised King Felix question … but I guess it kind of is ….

Jay Jaffe: I think that’s probably the way it’s going to go, at least in part. Gonna spend some time on this in February, I think (not that it will necessarily see the light of day).

Mike Ortman: As more and more players from the Cooperstown Casebook are elected, I feel like a part two is more and more needed, with a second wave of essays on worthy candidates. Do you see that happening and when?

Jay Jaffe: I would really like to do a second edition and certainly have a storehouse of candidates and topics, but finding the time to write it is one issue and finding a publisher is another. It is possible that I might pursue a self-published approach but … I have some research and logistical obstacles to figure out, among other things.

Phil: Regarding the entertainment factor, where would you rank the jerk-nice guy spectrum as an HOF criterion? I have been surprised to see some stuff out there about Suzuki in this regard, but I guess he could be pretty curt with beat writers.

Jay Jaffe: 99.9% of the time, that stuff shouldn’t matter, and airing it says more about the person complaining than the player. Oh, Ichiro — the most in-demand player of his time, media-wise, and in need of a translator — didn’t answer your every inane question?

Jay Jaffe: That said, I do understand that a writer might bear a grudge if a player lied to them about something important. A whole lot of the PED-related grievances among the electorate come from that point of view, and likewise some of the resistance to Beltán.

Adam: Do you see the Phillies shaking up the roster like they said they would? I always see bohm tossed around as a trade piece, but what do you actually see them doing this offseason? They can’t possibly plan to run it back again…

Jay Jaffe: I’d be surprised if it’s extensive but Bohm’s name has been tossed around enough that I bet he gets moved. The move I would make would be to send Nick Castellanos anda truck full of cash to wherever will take him because he’s largely been a disaster (net 1.4 WAR in 3 years). Cody Bellinger would make sense here, huge outfield defense upgrade and doesn’t need to be the lineup centerpiece.

Guest: As Andrew Jones continues his increasingly likely ascent to Cooperstown, how likely do you think a revisiting of Jim Edmonds’s case

Jay Jaffe: As I tried to convey in the Félix Hernández article, you absolutely should not hold your breath waiting for your pet one-and-done guy to get on an Era Committee ballot because the Historical Overview Committee isn’t gonna save them, in all likelihood. Ted Simmons is the only one to go that route and get in. Lou Whitaker has been on one ballot and was left off the next one despite a solid showing. Bobby Grich, David Cone, Dave Stieb, no love. Johan Santana isn’t even eligible until 2029, don’t wait up. Edmonds will be eligible in 2026 2029 but there’s no way on God’s green earth he’s going to find room when Bonds, Clemens, Sheffield, Schilling, and Kent are all likely to be on there. [Update: Tracker Team member Anthony Calamis reminded me that Edmonds won’t be eligible in 2026; he’ll have to wait until 2029, as the rules no longer allow for a BBWAA candidate to move directly to the Era Committee process — which was the case for BB, RC, and CS — without a one-year delay. It’s still the same potential pool of candidates, plus Manny Ramirez, Omar Vizquel and (hopefully not) Billy Wagner.]

Mike M.: Following Manfred’s lead, the BBWA gives one HOF voter a “golden vote” which allows you to write in one name for automatic induction into HOF. Who’s got your golden vote?

Jay Jaffe: I’d have to think about this for longer but my knee-jerk answer is Barry Bonds

Fally: Does Cody Bellinger have negative trade value?

Jay Jaffe: Not negative but the opt-out clause complicates things greatly.

SKip: Silly question but does being active for 10 years to be Hall eligible mean you just have to play one game in during the season? If a guy came up and pulled a Steve Nebraska one time a year for a decade is he eligible for the HoF?

Jay Jaffe: One game counts as a year for Hall purposes but there’s still so much gatekeeping in building the ballots that nobody with 9 years + 1 game is getting on there unless it’s an elite player and an extreme circumstance (think of the Mike Trout hit by a bus example)

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Did you do a HOF update on Chris Sale that I missed? Seems like he’s almost but not quite there.

Jay Jaffe: I covered him in this year’s roundup (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-the-2024-progress-rep…) and have mentioned him in passing since, but I do see him as back on the radar. He’s now at 53.4/41.7/47.5, which puts him tied with Tommy John for 76th,  one spot below Orel Hershiser, seven below Johan Santana, six above Andy Pettite, and 21 above Félix Hernández (3.4 points behind). If the latter had his line, he’d really have made my life much easier, would be an easy vote, and as it is, I’d probably tab Sale if he came up for election with his CURRENT body of work. He’s the short-career, high-peak template in my mind right now.

Mike Ortman: Jay give us an update on your top ten Outsiders as it stands now. I’m sure Dick Allen was high on that list.

Jay Jaffe: This looks a lot like a January column!

Theo be Praised: Cubs are pursuing Jesus Luzardo, which would give them 4 left-handed starters in the rotation.  Conceptually, is that a problem?  Or does starter handedness not really matter at that macro level like it would in bullpen?

Jay Jaffe: Eh, maybe a bit, but not a huge one. Get good pitchers and the rest will sort itself out.

Also it would be great to have Jesus Luzardo and the Jesus Lizard (whom I saw last week on their latest reunion tour; they still slay) in the same city.

Chip: Hey Jay – on a recent EW episode, a listener (Michael Mountain, maybe?) came on and discussed his WAA-based version of JAWS, which he named BOOG. I am curious if you heard about this/listened to it, and your thoughts. As a peak-over-career guy, it intrigues me

Jay Jaffe: I didn’t hear it — I don’t have much bandwidth for podcasts, and I don’t have much bandwidth for most things this time of year. I’ve piddled around briefly with WAA but it correlates so highly with WAR7 (about .8 for the top 100, and 87 for the top 300 when it comes to starting pitchers) that it seems like there would be less gained and more lost by changing — I still get people who think I’m using best 5 consecutive for peak which is why I have come to not mind the “WAR7” tag.

Jay Jaffe: forgot to add that my correlation test there was for starting pitchers, which is really where it might be of use. I did look at Félix’s WAA; he’s 111th there all-time, vs. 115th in WAR.

Jay Jaffe: Maybe in January i’ll check that podcast out though, I don’t want to dismiss it without hearing him out.

Captainjameshook: sorry we never linked up at Double Windsor before we bought a house and moved to rva but hope you’re digging the neighborhood!

Jay Jaffe: aw, drat! I went for lunch there last month with Graig Kreindler, the great baseball painter, and I got spotted by another baseball-loving bartender. That was funny.

Anyway, digging the neighborhood. Hope your move goes well, too!

Jay Jaffe: On the subject of lunch, it’s about that time for me, so I’m going to wind this up.

1) As you plot your holiday gift-giving, please keep a FanGraphs membership in mind for the baseball fans in your life (https://plus.fangraphs.com/product/fangraphs-membership/).

2) The store where I signed copies of The Cooperstown Casebook can no longer reliably get them (the book is out of print) but I do have some bookplates that I can send. Hit me up on Bluesky (@jayjaffe.bsky.social) and we’ll sort it out.

3) No chat from me either of the next two weeks due to holidays but I’ll be churning out profiles right up until next week and probably one (plus MY BALLOT) during the otherwise dark/best-of week here.

Jay Jaffe: Thanks for stopping by, and please enjoy your Xmas/Hanukkah/Kwanzaa/Festivus/New Year’s Eve celebrations  responsibly!