Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 2/24/26

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Greetings from Brooklyn, where we got buried in snow yesterday, with over 18″ in my neck of the woods.

Jay Jaffe: The snow seems to have followed me from Salt Lake City, where I went last week to visit my parents and ski with my daughter. A massive two-day storm cut short our skiing — the kiddo isn’t ready for powder yet and canyon travel wasn’t so great. Anyway, it’s back to baseball here.

Jay Jaffe: yesterday I wrote about Bill Mazeroski, the Hall of Fame second baseman who passed away over the weekend. He was a genuine defensive whiz who’s best known for his 1960 World Series-winning walk-off homer, which propelled him into Cooperstown https://blogs.fangraphs.com/the-defense-rests-a-tribute-to-bill-mazero…

The Actor for Al Pacino: Thanks for your piece on Bill Mazeroski earlier this week, I really enjoyed it.

It made me wonder, could you comment a bit on looking at historical defensive contributions, and how much weight you put into them? Defense is something that, even in the present day with all of our tracking data and video and analytics, can be hard to quantify. I am wondering what your overall perception of something like Total Zone fielding runs is – do you view it as just having wider error bars than our modern methods?

Jay Jaffe: Since JAWS is driven by WAR which up until the early part of this millennium, I do put some stock in Total Zone. It’s hardly perfect, and yes, there are wide error bars, but if you go around the diamond and check out who it rates the highest — guys like Mark Belanger, Ozzie Smith, Brooks Robinson, Andruw Jones, Willie Mays, Roberto Clemente — for stuff like that, it’s not out of line with expectations. Sure, you do get the occasional wide gap between perception and measure — Roberto Alomar and Jim Edmonds come to mind — but you can often work backwards to get a sense as to why certain players don’t fare well by the system

Jay Jaffe: And it’s worth remembering that positional scarcity and overall defensive value are important factors, too. A good-hitting right fielder isn’t as valuable as a good-hitting shortstop, etc.

Look At This Sotograph: Statheads calculate how much a player’s season is “worth”, moneywise – a 2-WAR season is worth $20 million-ish, at least on the open market (there are other factors, I am simplifying this).

Jay Jaffe: Check out Ben Clemens’ latest on the subject here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/what-are-teams-paying-for-a-win-in-free-ag…

Look At This Sotograph: How much is a postseason like Vlad’s “worth”? Do statheads ever calculate that?

Jay Jaffe: i haven’t seen any real attempts to quantify that, no.

TKDC: Is the Sale extension as good a deal for the Braves as I think it is (which is to say I think it’s very good for the team)?

Jay Jaffe: It’s tough to go too wrong on a one-year deal even for a pitcher such as Sale who’s obviously had a fair number of injury issues over the years. When he’s been healthy for the Braves he’s been excellent, and even if he misses one-third of the season as he did last year, he can still be worth the money.

Jay Jaffe: Plus the Braves have had all kinds of injury issues and uncertainty elsewhere in their rotation in recent years, so paying a premium for that production on a short-term basis is a reasonable response

Big Buckston: On Sale – Have the past two years made him hall-worthy in your mind? He was probably on the outside looking in before this renaissance.

Jay Jaffe: Yes, I think he’s already a better candidate than any of the starters currently on the ballot whom I voted for and he’s only 1.3 points behind CC Sabathia in JAWS (50.8 to 49.5) — he could get there this season.

Jay Jaffe: the lower win total (145 and counting) doesn’t bother me

Overhead Projector: The Fangraphs projections pick four of the AL East’s five teams to make the postseason. Does your gut agree with that? If not, do you think that the Royals and/or an AL West team could snag a spot?

Jay Jaffe: i think the AL East will produce two of the three Wild Card teams; the one I buy the least is the Orioles — which isn’t to say they’re not talented, just that they need a lot more to go right than went right last year. I’m lukewarm on the Royals and would put the Astros and Rangers ahead of them in terms of my early expectations.

The Actor for Al Pacino: Jordan Lawlar is moving to outfield. There have been a lot of high-profile moves like this in recent years with decent results (Tatis, Merrill, Oneil Cruz just off the top of my head), and anecdotally a higher concentration than I can remember in my baseball-watching life. Do you think this is becoming a legitimate trend (athletic but shaky infielder to solid outfielder), and is it as new as I seem to think it is? I can think of individual cases in the past, but none clustered together like this. Or maybe this just happens more in the minors before I’m aware of it…

Jay Jaffe: It’s a better question for our prospect folks or Dan than myself in terms of the historical trend but yes, it does seem like a fair number of them lately. I do think that Statcast and all of the extra information that goes into positioning outfielders should make the transition a bit easier than in the past.

RH: Just a request, it would be cool to have WBC participation noted in Roster Resource somehow

Jay Jaffe: I’ll pass that along, thanks.

lou: Informed by Sotograph’s question, and with Mazeroski in mind: how do you incorporate postseason performance into Hall decisions in general, if at all? Is it just a tie-breaker, or can it be a case-maker?

Jay Jaffe: Mostly I want to know how many times the player was a key member of a postseason team, and then whether his performance was especially better or worse than he was at that stage of his career. Every series is a small sample so I don’t get too hung up on a guy struggling in very limited duty (think Billy Wagner)

Jay Jaffe: I generally don’t think postseason performance should be the main driver of a HOF case but a guy who has an impact on multiple championships does get a bit of an outsized bonus in my mind. David Ortiz is a good example there.

Jay Jaffe: If Madison Bumgarner had a fuller career his postseason resumé (2.11 ERA in 102.1 innings) would put him over the top, but 37.2 career bWAR ain’t gonna get him to the point where it would sway my vote.

Nancy’s Friend Sluggo: Do you think the new attention to Mazeroski and his defense will aid Keith Hernandez in being reconsidered for the Hall? I abhor KH’s ugly politics, but I thought he was a transformative defender at first and certainly a far better offensive player than Maz.

Jay Jaffe: I am genuinely puzzled why Hernandez hasn’t gotten an Era Committee look. I don’t see his politics as forcing the selection committee to steer away, and other players who got caught up in the Pittsburgh Drug Trials-era cocaine mess such as Raines and Parker were elected, the latter while getting probably more committee chances than his votes or his statistical record beyond bulky career totals merited.

Jay Jaffe: I think it comes down to a non-standard offensive profile, somebody looking at his 162 career homers and deciding that’s not enough for a first baseman. I also think there’s a Mattingly-shaped obstacle in his path in getting on the ballot and it feels like somebody in the process just won’t rest until he’s elected.

George Vancouver: The Blue Jays had a bunch of guys overperform last season; that was basiscally the same team that won 74 game in 2024.  Now Bichette is gone, looks like another lost season for Santander, and Springer is a real long shot to repeat what he did in 2025. Their only big position player add was Okamoto, and who knows how he’ll do. I liked the Cease signing, but expectations are a little too high for this team, no?

Jay Jaffe: I like their starting pitching and think they’ll get more out of it than they did last year, when they were 23rd in WAR. Not just because of Cease — full season of Yesavage, bounceback from Berrios (who was banged up), more from Bieber, and a nice addition of Ponce should help offset what was lost.

Jay Jaffe: I like their offseason more than that of the Yankees

DURBS: Is the NFL Hall of Fame voting system dumber than the MLB Hall of Fame’s?

Jay Jaffe: yes. I did a Sirius XM radio spot with Ed Randall this past weekend on the subject of the football vs. baseball Halls in the wake of the Belichick controversy. I don’t have a clip but you might be able to find one. I’m no expert in the football process but I get the sense it’s like the Era Committees on steroids.

Nancy’s Friend Sluggo: What specifically do you think the Yankees should have done better this off-season, Jay? Thanks!

Jay Jaffe: something besides “run back the 2025 roster but with less pitching.” I like keeping Bellinger and can see some upside for Weathers but when Cole and Rodón are out to start the year I’d have liked a more aggressive approach to fortifying the rotation. I would have kept Luke Weaver, who obviously struggled late last year but has been a valuable bullpen piece for them whether closing or setting up; I think they need one more noteworthy bullpen piece. My impulse on Grisham given his defensive metrics would have been to let him walk after that big season and seek a better defensive CF

Ike: If Salt Lake City got an expansion team someday, what are you naming them?

Jay Jaffe: Good question. The Athletic had a piece on SLC that my wife edited  (https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/7044898/2026/02/23/utah-mlb-expansion…) and the expansion stuff was on my mind while I was there, especially because the Power District where the ballpark would be is right along the route to and from the airport.

I’m a big fan of the Bees name because Utah is the Beehive State and the PCL team has had a long history there; derivatives like Buzz or Stingers are OK but not as good. Outside the box, I kind of like the Slopes, referencing the skiing there.

Jay Jaffe: Peaks would be decent too — referencing the mountains for more than just skiing.

md: Jay, do you have a way too early world series matchup prediction?

Jay Jaffe: Throwing darts, let’s go Dodgers-Mariners and imagine a real bonanza for the extended Jaffe family (most of which is in Washington State)

JR: Is Trea Turner a HOFer for you?

Jay Jaffe: I think he’s capable of reaching the Hall but see him as several steps behind Lindor, Correa, and even Seager. Two batting titles and a World Series ring aren’t nothing but he’s heading into his age-33 season and has just three seasons with 5.0 bWAR or better.

Zach: I’m not hearing anything about Kopech.  Seems like he would be a high upside reliever who could help many teams.  Why so quiet?

Jay Jaffe: he really struggled with his control after undergoing surgery to repair a torn meniscus, and was out of the picture when the postseason came around. I haven’t seen any updates on him but my standard guess for players in his situation is that he sought a major league deal at a certain baseline, couldn’t find one, and was unwilling to settle for a lower guarantee or a minor league deal. Wouldn’t surprise me if he signs before the end of spring training and is a later addition to some bullpen.

Jeff: The thing about The Slopes is that it’s also a racial slur

Jay Jaffe: I had not considered that interpretation, and it’s been a long time since i encountered it in the wild (but then, I’m not the one who would be the target). It’s obviously better to steer clear of it if  has a chance of being read that way.

George Vancouver: In honor of the state bird: the Utah California Gulls

Jay Jaffe: The PCL team went by Salt Lake Gulls for (i think) 1975-84, referencing the birds that saved the crops of the pioneers when they were overwhelmed with locusts. I don’t think they’re gonna shoehorn California into the name though

JoJo: Is Colson Montgomery more likely to hit 40 HR or get demoted for too many Ks?

Jay Jaffe: It’s the White Sox so I think they let him play under most circumstances. His 29.3% strikeout rate and 69.6% contact rate are high but not catastrophic so long as he’s productive. That said, I think 40 HR is a longshot even given that he hit 21 in 71 games last year.

Tacoby Bellsbury: the Utah Morrisseys, because they’d be nothing without the Smiths

Jay Jaffe: womp-womp

DD: Salt Lake wouldn’t get a tema before Nashville, would they? Maybe as a pair?

Jay Jaffe: The general thinking is one in the western half of the US and one in the eastern half, with SLC up against Portland and Nashville up against Charlotte. Wrote about this a couple years ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/salt-lake-citys-bid-for-a-major-league-exp…

Gesundheit Jones: NL West: SDP, SFG, ARI. Can you throw a blanket over them?

Jay Jaffe: Not sure what “throw a blanked over them” means in this context. Are they chilly? unsightly? indistinguishable? They’re obviously closely clustered in our projected standings, as .500-ish teams

Jay Jaffe: will the exciting additions of Nick Castellanos, Nolan Arenado, and  Luis Arraez shake things up? I’m on the edge of my seat.

Bob: Do you think Elston Howard or other crossover players have cases for the Hall of Fame?

Jay Jaffe: Howard and Don Newcombe both lost time to the color line and then military service in Korea. Both look a bit light to me in terms of HOF cases even considering that. I think there are better Negro Leagues candidates among those who never reached the AL/NL but I wouldn’t be upset if those guys were in.

Nancy’s Friend Sluggo: Do you think Spencer Jones has a significant major league career, either with the Yankees or some other team? Despite the great physical talent, I can’t get past the woeful contact rates.

Jay Jaffe: I really do think his contact rates are a significant impediment and that his major league future lies beyond the Bronx

some guy: apologies on the corny question, but do you have any opening day rituals?

Jay Jaffe: Just try to watch as much baseball as possible all day, and choose a nice beer to accompany a late game while watching with my wife.

Sanford: Who among the Braves, Mets, Phillies and Cubs do you think poses the greatest threat to the Dodgers?

Jay Jaffe: I think they’re all pretty close, but I like the Mets’ pitching more than the others right now so let’s go with them.

Pumpsie Green: Re: Sale comp to Sabathia. How close is Ron Guidry. That dude was remarkable for a short period of time.

Jay Jaffe: A great pitcher for a short time but he’s nowhere near Sabathia in terms of S-JAWS (42.4, 111th vs Sabathia 50.8 and 55th). Wrote about him a few years ago https://blogs.fangraphs.com/cooperstown-notebook-born-in-the-fifties/

Claude: I recall you’re on the record as being on the fence (at best) about DeGrom and the HoF.  However, it seems as if many in the media have treated DeGrom as if he’s a lock.  Do you think there’s a chance we are all surprised by how well he does (and how quickly he does it) whenever he hits the ballot?  Or is it just too early to tell?

Jay Jaffe: Too early to tell. He’s going to have to stay healthy and finish strong to have a real chance.

Jay Jaffe: Ok folks, I’m calling it here as I’ve got some stuff to do around the house. Thanks so much for stopping by, we’ll do this again next week!