Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 2/5/21

2:00
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon and welcome to today’s chat — the first time I’ve gone back-to-back weeks with a chat since… September! Some housekeeping while we wait for the queue to fill…

2:01
Avatar Jay Jaffe: On Monday I published my latest five-year outlook for the Hall of Fame voting https://blogs.fangraphs.com/changing-times-the-next-five-years-of-bbwa…

2:02
Avatar Jay Jaffe: And then yesterday and today I published a two-part series on the remaining free agents with spring training less than two weeks away. Here are the position players https://blogs.fangraphs.com/still-on-the-shelves-part-i-top-remaining-…

2:02
GenericDodgerFan: Bauer has to be signing with the mets i think

2:02
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Seems quite possible it could go down while we’re in this chat. We’ve all got one eye on it

2:03
Justin: Hey Jay, thanks once again for the HOF coverage. As always, I read every piece you write on the topic. I seem to always enjoy the 5-year preview pieces the most. In that spirit, care to make some guesses regarding upcoming veterans committee iterations? Will all 3 of Allen, Kaat, and Oliva get in next year? Who is next in line for Modern Baseball–Can Dwight Evans make the jump from 50%?)

2:04
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Thank you. The math is such that there’s almost no way three candidates will be elected via the Golden Days Era Committee, in part because there are also other candidates who could draw support such as Minnie Miñoso (who got 8 votes last time), Gil Hodges, and Maury Wills

2:05
Avatar Jay Jaffe: As for the Modern Baseball ballot, Evans, Dave Parker, Steve Garvey and Lou Whitaker would be the top returning candidates, and again, they’re competing for ballot space.

2:06
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I also think Luis Tiant could get another look

2:07
Morbo: Jay, I learned last week that I am moving to Oneonta, NY (30 mins south of Cooperstown) for my wife’s new job, and I have been patiently waiting for your chat all week to share. Maybe I’ll see you at induction weekend this summer

2:07
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Oh, very cool. Let’s all hope there will be an induction weekend to attend (there will be an induction, the Hall says, but whether it will lend itself to the full menu of festivities remains to be seen)

2:07
Kyle W: Are you guys planning on doing another primer for the KBO and or NPB?

2:08
Avatar Jay Jaffe: We haven’t discussed yet – it’s possible, though

2:08
Rob: Thoughts on the angels loading up exclusively on one year deals this offseason?

2:08
Avatar Jay Jaffe: It’s the industry trend. I’m waiting for somebody to tell me how this year’s percentage compares to years past because I don’t want to do the gruntwork myself but at some point we’ll have comparisons

2:11
Avatar Jay Jaffe: In the case of the Angels, their payroll is so top-heavy that it seemed unlikely they would take on many multiyear deals until they cleared Pujols at least (after this year). With him, and the newly acquired Cobb and Fowler coming off the books they should have room to spend next winter

2:11
Derek: Bauer was fantastic last year, but approaching $40 mil/year seems like a TON (even if it’s on a relatively short deal) for someone without a real, established track record of pitching at the highest level for full seasons, not to mention the… less savory aspects of Bauer’s persona. I suppose giving the players more money is better than the alternative, but the numbers being thrown around seem way out of line to me. Thoughts?

2:12
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I addressed these factors a bit in the piece above. His track record of elite performance is short — he’s never had a 30-start season with an ERA below 4.00 — and he brings some non-performance concerns with him as well.

2:13
Marc: So, to get this out of the way first, Ichiro is a surefire lock for the HOF. However, given the nature of his hitting profile, his WAR totals obviously aren’t as high as other generational hitters. Can I ask where he ranks through JAWS for his position, irrespective of his HOF chances?

2:14
Avatar Jay Jaffe: He’s 16th in JAWS among RF, above the peak standard (which is really where one should look first in the case of truncated or constrained careers) but below the career standard https://blogs.fangraphs.com/still-on-the-shelves-part-2-top-remaining-…

2:14
Avatar Jay Jaffe: he was always a bit overrated relative to WAR but so what? Tthe entertainment value more than made up for it.

2:14
Ray Raffe: What are your thoughts on Ozuna’s situation? It feels pretty unlikely that he goes to Tampa, but there’s an odd amount of buzz there.

2:16
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I have a hard time believing the Rays could make a competitive offer unless it has an opt-out he’s sure to exercise, but i feel like he just did the one-and-done contract thing and rightly feels as though he can find some stability. The Braves haven’t signed a free agent position player to a deal of more than two years since Markakis in 2014 but if he’s really only looking for something in the 4/$100M range, that seems manageable

2:18
RJ: Did Mets completely misread Realmuto market? Gotta think that they would have pursued him if they had thought he could be had for ~75% of what they’re now offering Bauer.

2:19
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Unless I’ve missed something, their recent offer to Bauer (something like 3/$100-110 with an opt out) is going to come in slightly under the $115.5 million Realmuto got.

2:19
Tacoby Bellsbury: Between Wainwright, Goldschmidt and Arenado, which is most and least likely to make the Hall? And which would you put there, given nothing catastrophic happening.

2:22
Avatar Jay Jaffe: There’s no way Wainwright is getting elected, but the other two have reasonable shots. Coincidentally, both rank exactly 33rd in JAWS at their respective positions but Goldy is closer to the standard. He’s also 3 1/2 years older and has seen his value take a hit with the move to STL.

2:23
billyjojimbob: Pedrioia. HOF right?

2:25
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Doubtful. Falling short of 2,000 hits probably dooms him, just as it has everybody else from the post-1960 expansion era who’s failed to reach that milestone (though someday, Dick Allen and others will break that barrier).

He was always going to need exceptional staying power to have a real shot at the Hall. Unfortunately, the knee injury was too much to overcome.

2:26
Morbo: I just wanted to say that that whenever a writer leaves Fangraphs for a position where their work becomes nonpublic, looking at you Craig. It always reminds me appreciate and not take the remaining writers for granted. In that spirit I just wanted to say that I/we appreciate you and that your content has exponentially expanded my knowledge of baseball history, the Hall of Fame, and the generations of players that came before I started watching the game. Please tell us that the Hall isn’t going to steal you from us.

2:27
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Thank you so much for the kind words. I don’t think we’re in any danger of the Hall poaching me; I’m on good terms with folks there but I think I’m a little too spicy for the institution’s tastes. They won’t sell my book in the gift shop, apparently!

2:27
MB: Will the FanGraphs pitching leaderboards eventually show Pace data for 2020 (under the Pitch Info tab)? The column is there but it’s currently blank.

2:27
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Good question, will ask

2:27
Guest: I realize Luis Tiant is a bit short on Hall credentials, his two closest comps being Catfish Hunter and Jim Bunning, but I never knew until I just looked him up that he pitched in the Mexican League both before and after his time in MLB. Are you for or against letting him in?

2:29
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I’ve come around to being in favor of him. There are several other players I’d put in ahead of him but he’s at or near the top of the list for pitchers (have to think about that one a bit more closely).

2:29
BB: Favorite NYC music venue(s)?

2:29
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Ah i remember going to music venues. What a time that was.

2:31
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Many of my favorite venues are gone. Loved Brownies and liked CBGB, as much for the history as anything else

2:31
Avatar Jay Jaffe: My favorite at this point is probably Bowery Ballroom

2:31
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I like Brooklyn Steel for bigger shows and Mercury Lounge for smaller ones

2:31
Isolated Thinker: Nelson Cruz and David Ortiz are 2 rare examples of players having one of their best seasons while approaching/surpassing age 40. The only other player I can think of that comes close is Dave Winfield in 1992.  Granted Cruz did it over only 53 games, no fault of his own of course, but can you think of any others?

2:32
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Phil Niekro and Randy Johnson had some great seasons around and even after 40

2:33
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Niekro: career-high 10.0 bWAR at 39

2:33
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Johnson career high 10.7 bWAR at 38

2:34
Ben: If you had to pick one player younger than 28 that has the best chances of being a Hall-of-Famer someday, would is the closest to a lock? Lindor? Bregman? Seager? Correa? Bellinger? Soto? Acuna? Tatis?

2:35
Avatar Jay Jaffe: of the first five i’d pick Lindor because of his ability to stay on the field at a key position. Of the other 3 I’d put Soto last because his defense is a liability and at some point he’ll be a DH

2:36
Guest: You talked about David Wright in your 5 year HOF preview. He put up 50 WAR through his age 31 season. If health had allowed, how much more would he have needed to make the cut on your ballot? If he had managed to put up 15-20 more WAR through age 36 or so, would that have been enough? Would his peak have still been too low?

2:38
Avatar Jay Jaffe: 70 WAR would be a hair below Scott Rolen, who’s 10th all-time, so yeah that’d do it. 65 WAR would be 13th between Boyer and Buddy Bell, which is pretty much where the line is without having a high peak — and alas, Wright’s peak was pretty modest (39.5, lower than any BBWAA-elected 3B except Pie Traynor).

2:38
Some Guy: How will you view the Astros cheating scandal when it comes to potential HoF induction for their players (Beltran, Verlander, etc.)

2:39
Avatar Jay Jaffe: completely irrelevant to Verlander. Might hold out on Beltran for a year but not permanently.

2:40
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I haven’t thought in those terms, really. I’d like to see what Beltran’s path back to baseball employment is and how he carries himself. It’s gonna look pretty bad on the part of the industry if he doesn’t get the benefit of the doubt that Cora and Hinch did.

2:41
GvK: Best Brooklyn pizza: L&B, or Lucali? Sal’s on Court Street? Sam’s?

2:42
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I’ll go with Di Fara, with Lucali (and its secret South Slope sister Giuseppina) second. I’m high on Grimaldi’s too, and have had a lot of it  during the pandemic

2:42
Tom: Loved your missed time HOF article. In reference to Wainwright, would he have a better shot at the Hall had he not missed about 2 1/2 seasons due to injury, if we can assume (a big assume, I know) he had performed at a similar level?

2:44
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Eh, the extra time would probalby have helped him get past 200 wins, and 4 top-3 Cy finishes and the rings — that’s not nothing but right now he’s about 20 WAR south of Sabathia (whom I’ll vote for) and I’m not sure 2 1/2 seasons is enough to overcome the gap.

2:44
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Glad you enjoyed the Hall piece!

2:45
Delaware Fan: Big baseball fan and embarrassed to say I just discovered FanGraphs website. It is awesome. I guess better late than never.

2:45
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Welcome! There’s always going to be somebody who’s new to the site, whether they’re young or old. We’re happy to have you aboard

2:46
Tony Plush: Jay, I desperately want to believe my brother when he tells me the Royals have had a sneaky good offseason. Agree? Disagree?

2:47
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I like the Carlos Santana move a lot, and think Minor is a decent gamble, but I don’t see enough else to really merit a hearty thumbs up

2:49
Cambodian Creamsicle: When it comes to active players and their HOF chances, everyone talks about Kershaw, Verlander, Greinke, Scherzer, Yadi, etc……I would like to know your thoughts on what Salvy Perez needs to do to become a HOFer.  Thanks!

2:49
Avatar Jay Jaffe: He’s got 24.2 bWAR through age 30, bad framing numbers and a lot of mileage on those legs. I don’t see it happening for Perez, sorry

2:51
GenericDodgerFan: Bauer to the Dodgers according to Jon Heyman!

2:51
Avatar Jay Jaffe:

Bauer to Dodgers
5 Feb 2021

haven’t seen any confirmation yet. Let’s remember that last night Bob Nightengale had Bauer to the Mets and obv that wasn’t done

2:52
Nick: Any chance the Reds make good on the rumors and actually acquire Willy Adames?

2:53
Avatar Jay Jaffe: It’s the sensible move if they intend to contend, but he’s not going to come cheaply

2:53
Some Guy: What do you think the odds deGrom makes the Hall? Or, if it is easier what does he have to do to have a good shot?

2:53
Avatar Jay Jaffe: He’s gotten a very late start but I think if he were to win a 3rd Cy Young he’d probably be some kind of Koufax-like exception where his career totals don’t matter

2:54
Some Guy: Any idea how you will view the Covid season for HoF voting? As a hypothetical if a guy is 3 WAR short of the standard but was on pace for an 8 WAR season this year (so an additional ~5 WAR) would you vote for them?

2:55
Avatar Jay Jaffe: JAWS shouldn’t be used as a binary yes/no. Context is always important — military service, color line and post-integration quotas, strikes and now a COVID-shortened season are all factors that should be considered for the players affected

2:56
Poetfiend: Hi, Jay! Just wondering what your thoughts are on the inability of the HOF Golden Era Committee to get a vote together this year.

2:57
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Disappointed. From a technical standpoint, I get it — the extra resources that they would have needed to devote could have compromised the confidentiality of the proceedings (imagine a devoted IT guy/gal for each voter on a secure system) but from a human standpoint it really sucked to keep a bunch of octagenarians waiting.

2:59
Derek: Is Ozuna’s slow market a result of the (still) lingering uncertainty about the universal DH, or is there genuinely not much interest in him?

3:00
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I think the DH issue is a significant factor, as is the Braves’ general avoidance of long-term FA deals. There’s interest, though

3:00
sucramrenrut: Do you get disappointed when no one gets elected to the Hall? It’s certainly a let down for me as a fan, considering there are so many candidates who are worthy and will get in eventually.

3:02
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I was very disappointed in 2013 but this time around not particularly because I didn’t want to see the closest candidate to election get to 75%. True heads know that the real action was in the middle of the ballot where less problematic guys like Rolen, Helton, Wagner and even Sheffield put themselves in position for eventual election.

3:03
Delaware Fan: Interesting to see all the Hall of Fame talk. In my opinion, fans think way more players are Hall of Famers than they should. If their careers ended today, I think only HOFers playing now are Pujols, Trout, Cabrera, and Verlander.

3:05
Avatar Jay Jaffe: From an historical standpoint, a figure of 1.5 future HOFers per season per team is about right, meaning 45 active right now. Even if it’s just 30 — well, you’re drastically undercounting. Kershaw, Scherzer, Greinke and Betts will be elected someday, possibly Altuve, some from among the question above (Lindor, Bregman, Seager, Correa ,Bellinger ,Soto, Acuña, Tatis)… and others who we haven’t even gotten a handle on yet

3:06
Alby: If Chase Utley isn’t elected, the 2007-11 Phillies won’t have a single Hall of Famer except for Halladay, who was only there for the last two of those seasons. Is it unusual for a team of that caliber to have none of its key players make the Hall?

3:07
Avatar Jay Jaffe: for a 5-year run like that, I think so. for a 1-championship team, though, not that uncommon. The 1988 Dodgers and ’97 Marlins come to mind.

3:07
Mr. Byrnes: Do you like Talking Heads?  Watch American Utopia?  Listen to the Talking Heads podcast by Scott Aukerman and Adam Scott?

3:08
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Love the Talking Heads and recently re-watched Stop Making Sense. Haven’t seen American Utopia yet — I should, right? I don’t really get a chance to listen to podcasts, alas. It’s a stretch for me to squeeze in more than 1-2 a week and usually i don’t listen to any

3:09
Avatar Jay Jaffe:

Trevor Bauer’s three-year deal with the Dodgers is for $102 million guaranteed — and for $40 million in 2021 and $45 million in 2022. He can opt out after each year, meaning he’ll make $40M if he opts out this year, $85M if he does so after 2022 and $102M if he stays all three.
5 Feb 2021
3:10
Toshiro Mifunke: Is it possible for a player to have a HOF peak and put together so many craptastic compiling years that it cripples his JAWS? In other words, does Pujols’s awful LAA years diminish his transcendent STL years?

3:10
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I mean i suppose you could cook up an example where a player was so bad outside of his peak that his JAWS looked mediocre but it ain’t Pujols, who’s second to Gehrig in career, peak and JAWS among 1B

3:12
Tacoby Bellsbury: Isn’t the legendary peak/craptacular surrounding years the Dale Murphy case?

3:13
Avatar Jay Jaffe: sort of, but at 46.5/41.2/43.9, he was below standard even on peak (44.7)

3:14
Ben: Will Kershaw be the 3rd best LAD pitcher in 2021? And who is better right now between Buehler and Bauer?

3:17
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I mean, Kershaw did have a better season in 2020 than Buehler, but Buehler’s 2019 is something that Bauer doesn’t have yet — a 30-start season with an ERA under 4.00. I think it’s possible Buehler outpitches Bauer over the next 3 seasons.

3:17
Fan: Will you vote for Pedroia?

3:17
Avatar Jay Jaffe: probably not. He’s well behind Utley for me

3:17
Josh R: I think Dustin May would make an outstanding closer. Do you think the Dodgers could lean that way and leave him there for years or is he still a starter down the road?

3:19
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Tough to say. I think that barring trade/injury he’s going to spend a chunk  of time in the bullpen in 2021. He’s got great stuff but needs to translate it into missing more bats.

3:19
Mr. Burrito: why did whitaker fall out from HOF contention during his initial 10-year voting run? his numbers feel solid

3:20
Avatar Jay Jaffe: He went 1-and-done with 2.9% in 2001. Sheer stupidity on the part of too many voters, though it would have helped if comprehensive metrics like WAR existed to give a better estimate on his total impact

3:20
Ben: In reference to the Pujols question above, Nomar Garciaparra is a good example of a HoF peak, but enough terrible outside of that to cripple his case. IN his 14-year career, his best 7 seasons were 43.1 bWAR, but other 7 seasons gave him just a combined 1.2 WAR.

3:22
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Nomar’s 43.1 WAR peak is right at the Hall standard… but he had 1.2 WAR outside of that. Had much less to do with playing badly than it did being unavailable; he topped 81 games just twice in his 30s.

3:23
Adge: Jays and Anibal Sanchez?

3:23
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Doubt there’s much left in the tank. I think they’d do better to get Walker, Paxton, or Odorizzi

3:23
Mgk: Are their any actions Schilling could take that would make you reconsider your stance?

3:24
Avatar Jay Jaffe: There’s no coming back from cheerleading an insurrection as far as getting my vote.

3:25
Tigers Fan: Will Lux be the starting 2B this year for the Dodgers and have a good year?

3:25
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I think he’ll have the chance to win the job but his 2020 was such a lost season that it wouldn’t surprise me if he starts in the minors.

3:25
Mike Ortman: I know it will be a while until we see a Today’s Game Committee, but when we do, who is most intriguing to you? Appier, Olerud, Ventura, Crime Dog, Bernie (all sub 50 JAWS).

3:26
Avatar Jay Jaffe: none of those guys really do it for me. Kenny Lofton is the one I’m hoping does well

3:28
Alby: In terms of players screwed by missed time, is there anyone who got whacked worse than Sal Maglie? Missed two years to WWII, then five more for daring to jump to the Mexican League. Didn’t pitch his first full season until he was 33.

3:31
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I’d never really thought of him in those terms but aside from the fact that it’s 4 years he missed in and after Mexico (1946-49) you’re right, that’s a ton of time missed. 119-62, 3.15 ERA (127 ERA+), only 30.5 WAR but 5 top-10 seasons.

3:32
Mike Ortman: Harold Baines’s election totally blindsided everyone. Is there one player who you’d love to have “undeservingly” elected? I’ll go first Coco Crisp just for the plaque. #afro

3:32
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I’d vote for Fernando Valenzuela if given the chance

3:33
Guest: Do you know off the top of your head, are the Dodgers over the CBT? If so, are they likely to try to move some salary?

3:34
Avatar Jay Jaffe: https://www.fangraphs.com/roster-resource/payroll/dodgers yes by nearly $30 million. I’d guess they trade Price and eat a significant chunk to get under $230M (2nd threshold)

3:35
Avatar Jay Jaffe: OK folks, my time is up for today. Thanks so much for stopping by, be safe, and we’ll hopefully run  my streak to three weeks in a row next Friday!





Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jay_jaffe... and BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.

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