Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 3/11/25

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my weekly chat — the third week in a row I’ve been able to do this (please clap).

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday, I wrote about the Hall of Fame’s latest tweaks to Era Committee rules and (reluctantly) weighed in on the recent news regarding Pete Rose’s potential reinstatement https://blogs.fangraphs.com/never-is-a-long-long-time-permanent-inelig…

Jay Jaffe: There’s a lot of confusion circulating around the latter aspect of that, so I hope I helped bring some clarity to the matter.

Jay Jaffe: Beyond that, I’ve got a look at Jacob deGrom’s spring debut and the overhauled Rangers roster in the pipeline for today.

Jay Jaffe: And now, on with the show

Brad: Pete Rose accepted a lifetime ban from baseball before the Hall had its stance ruling out people on the ineligible list, and it stands to reason he may not have accepted such a ban if he realized that circumstance. Should that change how we view his candidacy for the Hall?

Jay Jaffe: No. He committed what had already been long understood as baseball’s capital crime, and it should have been apparent from Shoeless Joe Jackson’s fate that Rose’s Hall of Fame chances were irreparably damaged

20longyears: Framing data has changed a lot of observers’ understanding of catchers’ value, but the data only goes back so far. Based on anecdotes or the eye test, who is one catcher from the past who you think would have a much higher lifetime WAR if we had framing data from their career?

Jay Jaffe: One who really stands out in terms of his defensive value and reputation is Jim Sundberg, a six time Gold Glove winner who finished with 40.5 career bWAR despite an OPS+ of just 90. Of course, I’d love to know how Johnny Bench would fare via framing as well.

BangedUpYanks: Gerrit Cole being out certainly is a bummer for this season, but how will it affect his HOF chances? Could this be what keeps him out?

Jay Jaffe: Between last year’s nerve issue, his TJ, and the pandemic-shortened 2020 season, he will have lost at least two prime seasons to injuries. Still, he’s far ahead of his cohorts in terms of the numbers that most stand out to Hall of Fame voters. I think he’ll be OK but he’s less of a certainty than he was a month ago.

RH: What’s your favorite single game of baseball that you attended?

Jay Jaffe: That’s a very tough call. Jeter’s 3,000th hit game was very cool, as was the 1999 World Series clincher (Yankees sweep Braves), but right now last year’s clincher might occupy the top spot. The team I grew up rooting for sealing a World Series win over the Yankees in front of my eyes? Tough to top that

Stephen: With the injury news to Gerrit Cole (and Luis Gil and Stanton) what tier are the yankees in for AL contenders? Are they still top 5?

Jay Jaffe: In today’s forthcoming Rangers piece, I noted that the losses of Cole, Gil, and Stanton have knocked the Yankees down to an 85.7-win projection, which is down 1.7 wins from when I checked in just a week ago (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/injuries-to-stanton-gil-and-lemahieu-will-…) but still tops in the AL. Via our Playoff Odds, we currently have five other teams within two wins of their total, and 11 within four wins. All of which is to say I see three tiers: those 11 teams, the next three (Guardians, A’s, Angels in the 75-78 range) and the White Sox.

Yolmer Sanchez: Who will be the most shocking player to be moved midseason?

Jay Jaffe: wild-ass guess: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: If Wheeler remains healthy for all of 2025, is he suddenly a better HOF candidate than Cole?

Jay Jaffe: It’s gonna take more than just staying healthy. He’s 50 wins, 600 strikeouts, and about 8 bWAR behind Cole despite being 101 days older; he’s never won a Cy Young and has one win in a Triple Crown category (wins, strikeouts, ERA) compared to five for Cole.

Jay Jaffe: I think Chris Sale is a better candidate, perhaps even better than Cole but his health is so iffy that youneverknow.

Tim: Can we put any faith in the hot spring Byron Buxton is having? I could use another OF/UT bat and he’s part of a group available that includes Noot, Profar, Adell, Conforto, NoJo, and Sanchez

Jay Jaffe: I generally don’t weigh in on fantasy questions but I can’t quit Byron Buxton. Knock yourself out.

Nuxie: Wonder if you could clear up something for me. Before the giants and dodgers moved west there were three teams in NY. I’ve seen reports that there is a territorial veto on teams moving into someone’s area. When did this come into being and doesn’t it seem antitrust?

Jay Jaffe: You’re forgetting that MLB has enjoyed an antitrust exemption that goes back to 1922

Toma: One could argue that since Rose wasn’t given a chance to make an informed decision regarding his eligibility, he should be reconsidered under a different standard. After all, he might not have agreed to the ban if he knew it would permanently bar him from Cooperstown.

Jay Jaffe: The agreement Rose signed was between himself and MLB. The Hall of Fame is a separate entity that gets to decide its own rules.

Jay Jaffe: And as Manfred wrote in his 2015 denial of Rose’s reinstatement:

Under the Major League Constitution, my only concern has to be the protection of the integrity of play on the field through appropriate enforcement of the Major League Rules. It is not a part of my authority or responsibility here to make any determination concerning Mr. Rose’s eligibility as a candidate for election to the Baseball Hall of Fame.”

Sirras: Congratulations! You’ve been given a one day stint as head of the HoF. What are you changing in your one day, whether it’s in voting, in what’s presented in the museum, or otherwise?

Jay Jaffe: 1) another Special Committee on the Negro Leagues à la 2006, with a panel consisting of experts on Black baseball, and up-or-down votes concerning maybe a couple dozen candidates

2) expand the size of the Era Committee voting panels to 32 and make any former teammate, manager, or executive recuse themselves from voting on that particular candidate.

3) Create a One-and-Done Era Committee to address the candidacies of players who have been frozen out of Era Committee ballot placement after being neglected by BBWAA writers.

Jay Jaffe: Additionally, I’d rescind the rules the Hall announced last week.

Least Biased Dodger Fan: Hey Jay, what do you make of the Dodgers briefly stopping Ohtani’s bullpens (but not his throwing entirely) in order to “help him prepare for hitting this year?” Something to worry about or likely a nonissue that might delay his debut by a couple weeks?

Jay Jaffe: I think it’s a non-issue or at most a minor one. Since the Dodgers currently have enough healthy starters to fill out a rotation, there’s no reason to rush Ohtani back to the mound, and I imagine his spring training regimen and rehab from shoulder surgery has enough extra work that adding the bullpens as well might be a bit too taxing, creating more risk.

Sirras: What player do you find the most maddening to watch and why?

Jay Jaffe: Blake Snell’s nibbling around the fringes of the zone and his high walk rate can drive a person to strong drink, and really slow down a game.

Jamie: Who do you expect to have a better season this year: Yordan Alvarez or Vlad Guerrero Jr. (assuming no injuries)?

Jay Jaffe: I’ll go with Alvarez, who has never been anything but absolutely phenomenal at the plate.

Jordan: The Pirates will earn a wild card spot this year if ______________

Jay Jaffe: oh boy. Let’s see. If Joey Bart, Nick Gonzalez, Ke’Bryan Hayes live up to the highest hopes anyone had for them when they were first-round picks; if Bryan Reynolds hits like an All-Star; if the big three of Skenes, Keller, and Jones can combine for about 12 WAR… then yeah, I like their odds at winning a Wild Card spot.

Bardo Bill: If Chris Sale’s career ended today I’d put him at 70% to get into the Hall of Fame by writers’ vote. Would you go higher or lower than that?

Jay Jaffe: Lower. If he can get to 150 wins and 2,500 strikeouts (needs 12 of the former, 86 of the latter) it might be easier for voters to wrap their heads around his candidacy to the point that he has a coin-toss chance down the road.

War2d2: Hi Jay! Last week I mentioned I’d be going to Scottsdale for spring training and asked who I should be looking out for. Just wanted to put in my scouting report that PCA looks like a legit all star and Matt Shaw is a bust. (I saw a Cubs game and PCA homered twice and Shaw went 0-3)

Jay Jaffe: Well, I’m batting .500. I’ll take it!

Jamin: After Morris, Baines, and now Parker, who is your best guess for the next completely unworthy induction to the HOF from the 70’s-90’s?

Jay Jaffe: Maybe Steve Garvey if BBWAA voting shares are anything to go by; his is the highest from that era of anyone yet inducted and my God, the Hall keeps putting him on ballots like it wants him there. Barf

deGrom: How confident are you in my elbow after my second TJS

Jay Jaffe: Less confident than the guy who got it up to 98 in his spring debut

David: Why is Guerrero looking at such a high payday while a less heralded player like Nico Hoerner would almost certainly command far less – even though Hoerner has amassed more WAR over the last three years?

Jay Jaffe: A fair question. I’d say it mostly comes down to demonstrated ceiling and age. Vladito has hit for a 160+ wRC+ twice, with about 6 WAR in each of those years., and he’s only about to turn 26. Hoerner’s already 27 (28 on May 13) and hasn’t had a 5-WAR season

Reds Enjoyer: Hi Jay. Was wondering if you ever find time to consume any YouTube baseball content? Jamin’s mention of Jack Morris got me thinking about the four part Dave Stieb documentary on YouTube that is genuinely one of my favorite sports documentaries I’ve ever seen

Jay Jaffe: I don’t generally watch much of any substantial length on YouTube, but I made an exception for Secret Base’s Captain Ahab: the Story of Dave Stieb, and enjoyed the hell out of it. Had a great time talking to Jon Bois on a FanGraphs Audio podcast when it came out https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-jon-bois-on-dave-stieb-lou…

drplantwrench: not that Vladito is gonna get traded, but would the angels offering Caden Dana, Nolan Schanuel and Joswa Lugo move the needle?

Jay Jaffe: let’s see, based on Eric Longenhagen’s prospect grades that’s a 55 FV, a former 45 FV who looks like a 45 big leaguer (Schaneul) and a 40 FV. Even if you’re trying to get him at the deadline I think that’s so light that nobody is even returning your call.

drplantwrench: do you think that the Yankee’s would take Tyler Anderson off of the Angels hands considering their pitching needs?

Jay Jaffe: Eh. He’s a cromulent innings eater who hasn’t come close to the All-Star caliber form he showed in his lone year with the Dodgers. Why give up talent for him when they could sign a free agent like Lance Lynn or Spencer Turnbull? I think the bar has to be higher for them to make a trade.

Reds Enjoyer: Had no idea you had Jon on to talk about that, thanks for the link! Would also highly, highly recommend their series on the Mariners. Truly incredible storytelling that is right up your average FanGraphs reader’s alley

Jay Jaffe: I missed the boat on the Mariners doc, so to speak. Will check it out when I get a chance

1B is a Wasteland: Early rounds, roto, you need a 1B. Are you taking the metronomic Freddie Freeman and his injured leg at 35, but in one of the best lineups in history, or the highly variable Matt Olson at 30, coming off a down year and still with a strong supporting cast? What if the league counts OBP? Or doubles?

Jay Jaffe: I’ll never bet against Steady Freddie.

Jay Jaffe: My Rangers piece is live: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/as-jacob-degrom-returns-the-rangers-look-l…

Insert Witty Name Here: Since everything is a remake this day and age, if you could redo Ken Burn’s Baseball, what would you like to see done?

Jay Jaffe: you know, i don’t even remember seeing his 10th Inning follow-up, which addressed the strike, the Torre Yankees dynasty, and the PED era. I think the next places to go beyond that would be the Asian baseball influx, Moneyball and the analytic revolution, maybe something about women in baseball that picks up after the AAGPBL

comish4lif: From the dumb as a potato question about Pete Rose: he accepted a penalty of a permanant ban from MLB – not lifetime. #2 he did 5 months in jail for income tax evasion. #3 he admitted to a “relationship” with a 16yo while Pete was in his 30s.

Why anyone supports him is way beyond me.

Jay Jaffe: Given how often I’ve pointed out that yes, it’s a spot on the permanently ineligible list and not “a lifetime ban,” I should have parsed the question more carefully, but you’re correct. As for matters #2 and #3, there’s nothing in the Hall bylaws regarding either (HOFer Orlando Cepeda served time in prison for drug smuggling and he’s not the only one with a criminal record; I imagine there are other players who crossed the statutory rape line as well (ugh ugh ugh) that we don’t know about. All distasteful but not officially disqualifying.

drplantwrench: just read the Rangers article.  i think the AL West might be more up for grabs than people realize, but are you concerned about their age? Seimen, Seager, Garcia, Joc are all on the wrong side of 30, and their SP rotation average age is about 34

Jay Jaffe: I mentioned age several times in the piece, and as for those hitters, they’re countered by a group of 20somethings including Carter and Langford.  The rotation is open to contributions from Rocker and Leiter as well — those guys can probably nudge out anybody besides deGrom and Eovaldi if their performances merit.

Jay Jaffe: Ok folks, short day from me here — I’ve got a belated Hanukkah gift to put together, a new bike for my daughter, complete with gears and handbrakes — but we’ll do this again soon. Thank for stopping by, and have a great week!