Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 3/12/21

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! It’s nearly 70 degrees outside in Brooklyn and it’s taking all of the willpower I can muster to remain in front of the computer for this chat, but a commitment is a commitment, and I’m here. A bit of housekeeping before we launch this thing forward…

Jay Jaffe: Today I’ve got a piece on the historical precedents for Juan Soto’s performance and what that could mean with regards to a contract extension and a spot in Cooperstown https://blogs.fangraphs.com/extending-juan-soto-all-the-way-to-coopers…

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday, I took a look at the impact on the Yankees’ bullpen caused by the loss of Zack Britton, who’s having surgery to remove bone chip(s) in his elbow. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/loss-of-britton-puts-a-dent-in-yankees-bul…

Jay Jaffe: And in a trifecta, I took a look at the spring debuts of Shohei Ohtani, David Price, and Stephen Strasburg, and the implications for their respective teams .https://blogs.fangraphs.com/shohei-ohtani-is-on-the-comeback-trail/ https://blogs.fangraphs.com/david-price-is-ready-for-whatever-and-so-a… https://blogs.fangraphs.com/strasburgs-return-and-a-thumbnail-guide-to…

Jay Jaffe: I also spoke to RJ McDaniel about Ohtani for today’s FanGraphs Audio https://blogs.fangraphs.com/fangraphs-audio-joe-block-talks-pirates/

And now, on with the show.

Ben: If he had kept on playing, did Nick Markakis have any foreseeable chance of having a decent HOF case by piling up counting stats?

Jay Jaffe: I really don’t think so. I know there was a notion that Markakis could get to 3,000 hits based upon his having surpassed 2,000 at age 33, but the reality was that he had already become an average-or-worse player even before leaving Baltimore after the 2014 season, and so any slippage of his skills beyond that would eventually reduce his playing time, which is what happened.

Tommy: Mike Leake and Rick Porcello are both free agents. Would you expect them to sign?

Jay Jaffe: Leake opted out last year and has already said that he won’t pitch to start this year. https://www.cincinnati.com/story/sports/mlb/2021/03/02/mike-leake-turn…

Jay Jaffe: Porcello I would expect to land a deal, with the Cardinals my best guess given the concerns about Miles Mikolas and others in their rotation. They need an innings eater, and Porcello is nothing if not that.

Jack: Do you foresee the Yankees treating the luxury tax threshold as a hard cap in years to come or is this year’s “hard limit” of $210 million a response to Covid/wanting to reset their tax rate? Hard to believe the Yankees will not spend freely while the Padres do.

Jay Jaffe: I suspect this is a temporary thing in light of the pandemic, the advantages of resetting, and the end of the current CBA. A decision about a long-term extension offer for Aaron Judge is on the horizon, and likewise for Gleyber Torres, though I do think that if the Yankees are keeping their powder dry it’s to leap into next year’s shortstop market unless Torres does a better job of showing them he can handle the position this year.

RichCampbellPhD: Looks like most projection systems have settled on 83-84 wins for A’s.  Vegas looks like over/under set in 86-87 range.  What odds would you give on their matching 97 win rate of each of last 3 seasons (approaching Khris Davis .247 average 4 years in a row territiry!)

Jay Jaffe: Wow, I’m just taking a shot in the dark here but looking at their playoff odds, they have an 18.6% chance of wining the division, which already means improving on 84 wins. I’d imagine we’re talking low single digits fo 97 wins, maybe 2-3%? I honestly don’t know.

Jay Jaffe: Folks, we are having some technical difficulties behind the scenes here. Please stand by:

Jay Jaffe: Apologies, we’re having an issue here where the chat never published to the home page and thus is apparently only accessible to whoever came in via the Twitter link. Gonna chalk this one up as a rainout and hope that the elements favor us next week.