Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 5/16/23

2:03
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks! Welcome to another edition of my Tuesday chat. I just published a piece on Will Smith’s outstanding work, particularly since coming off the 7-day concussion injured list https://blogs.fangraphs.com/with-the-return-of-will-smith-the-dodgers-…

2:03
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I wrote about Drew Rasmussen’s injury and the blow it dealt to the Rays https://blogs.fangraphs.com/after-dominating-yankees-drew-rasmussen-be…

2:03
Avatar Jay Jaffe: And now, on with the show

2:04
Chip: Is Manoah cooked? He’s looked pretty bad.

2:07
Avatar Jay Jaffe: He looked terrible last night and his numbers this season are undeniably bad. However, the guy is 25 years old and was brilliant last year, so it seems a bit early to start declaring him cooked. Obviously, he and the Jays need to fix things. For now, he’s taken a detour off the road to success, not unlike dozens upon dozens of other pitchers in baseball history.

2:07
Guest: Where do you think Satchel Paige ranks among the best pitchers of all time?

2:08
Avatar Jay Jaffe: It’s impossible to know but I prefer to think that he’s easily somewhere in the top five or 10 of all time.

2:09
A Boy Named Yu: This question was a lot more relevant yesterday than today what with the Soto article that was published today, but if the Soto of the past 12 months is the new Soto, does he still make the HOF?

2:13
Avatar Jay Jaffe: He’s hit .239/.402/.445 which isn’t pretty but is still good for a 142 wRC+. I think it’s worth noting that the AVG and SLG have both lagged relative to his Statcast expected stats, including this year’s .260 xBA/.521 xSLG. I think that’s good enough to project him to rebound and continue progress towards Cooperstown

2:13
Brain Bruise 🙁: If you are the Dodgers, how do you help protect Will Smith for both the rest of this year and his career? Being behind the plate is a brutal job

2:14
Avatar Jay Jaffe: At some point, Smith is probably going to need to transition some of his workload to DH or left field or something like that (1B and RF not being options given the long-term presences of Freddie and Mookie). There’s always risk in playing a guy behind the plate but I think the Dodgers did a good job of treating his recent situation with caution; he passed a concussion test but went on the IL based on his symptoms.

2:15
Reader Plea: It feels like you and the other FG side writers are getting (or posting) a lot more fantasy questions this season. Is that true? This is a comment, but I really wish fantasy players would go to the RotoGraphs writers with fantasy questions and leave the regular baseball questions to writers like you. I would much rather get your expertise on the HoF or something interesting in today’s game than how you think a second division outfielder will perform ROS.

2:16
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I can’t speak for others but I almost never answer fantasy questions here unless I can bring them back to the realm of non-fantasy stuff, and even then only when I have a strong preference and can give a good answer off the cuff. As you note, I’ve got other strengths, and I try to play to those in this chat.

2:17
Avatar Jay Jaffe: One thing I do try to combat that probably is more fantasy related is the notion that a player is done/cooked/washed. Manoah is a good example — he may not help your fantasy team this year based on what we’ve seen, but the guy has 1+ year of service time and is 25 years old, no team in its right mind is giving up on him and anybody who thinks they would probably shouldn’t be allowed near sharp objects.

2:19
Reds Enjoyer: Hunter Greene’s fastball has a run value of +6 so far this season. Long term, how do you think he can get better value out of a pitch he’s throwing more than 50% of the time?

2:22
Avatar Jay Jaffe: i think the short answer is by developing a reliable third pitch. he’s thrown his changeup just 5% of the time this year, but that included a career-high 13 of them last night against the Rockies. He’s very much still a work in progress, but if he can get that changeup to look similar enough to his fastball coming out of his hand, he could be onto something.

2:22
Sam: If Aaron Judge was looking over at the dugout for signs from his teammates – why is that a big deal? Sign stealing’s still legal, right? If the Jays are tipping their pitches, why are they upset like they’ve been cheated?

2:26
Avatar Jay Jaffe: The Astros’ sign-stealing scandal has understandably made every team increasingly paranoid (they were already paranoid, hence the spectrum of electronic-aided sign stealing that occurred up to the banging on the can), so teams are hypersensitive about this stuff. They’e also engaged in headgames against their opponents, and loath to admit their own wrongdoing, so they may well say things like “they were cheating” to camouflage their own sloppiness or even the fact that they’ve figured it out themselves.

If the Yankees picked up a tell in the signs but weren’t using electronic means to do so, that’s permissible

2:27
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I thought the Cespedes BBQ thread covered this well. Start here

My boring take on this:
1. Don’t think Judge was looking at signs. Visual cue from the dugout is wild, there’s a reason HOU was banging cans.
2. If he was getting signs its not illegal, as long as Yanks aren’t using tech.
3. Totally fair for Jays broadcast to ask the questions.

Blue Jays announcers question where Aaron Judge looked before mammoth HR ow.ly/m0rO104H2vG
16 May 2023
2:29
The Batman: The Mariners are first in fWAR from their starters and second in fWAR from their relievers (although I believe they were first until a couple days ago). Their offense is 17th, and extremely boom or bust. There’s a great team here if they can ever start hitting. What do you think their path to that is: hope for a return to life by Julio, Teoscar, and Geno; or get Trader Jerry on the phone?

2:33
Avatar Jay Jaffe: They have to get those guys going, particularly Julio. All three are lagging considerably behind their xBA and xSLG so you hope at some point the hits start falling in and the luck goes their way. that said, filling the hole at second base where what’s left of Kolten Wong should be a priority if they’re still in it in July, and likewise for finding a DH given that theirs have hit — and I use that term loosely — .138/.226/.225 for a 32 wRC+ so far

2:33
Pumpsie Green: At no point this season will the Mets have played more home games than road games. Same for the Blue Jays. Scheduling shenanigans, or just trivia? But it must wear on the team to defend their record with what seems like an excuse, even though it is a very real reason for a worse-than-expected record – home winning percentages are almost always higher than road.

2:36
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Trivia. I don’t think the schedule makers have it out for anybody. At some point you just have to shut up and win, and since you’re going to wind up playing as many home games as road — and thus maybe getting a slight advantage later on in the season to even things out — this all pretty transient.

2:36
Mike M: Nice piece about the Fresh Prince of L.A.  I hope he makes the All-star team this year. Tony Gonsolin returned about the same time, and that has also been huge.  But sheesh they have 8 players with WRC+ over 100, so their hitting is fine.  If Syndergaard can improve, then they should have a stranglehold on the NL West.  You (like many others including myself) had SD winning the NL west this year.  Have you changed your mind?

2:37
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Good point about Gonsolin, but on the other I don’t see much reason for faith in Syndergaard. As for the division title, ask me after I look into the Padres for a piece later this week.

2:37
Tungsten Arm Ohtani: WAR certainly became a bigger factor in HOF voting over the last decade. What do you see as the next “thing” to become a bigger factor in voting?

2:39
Avatar Jay Jaffe: It’s going to take awhile but I think as we get more Statcast data, we’ll come up with more trusted defensive measures than the ones that are currently in use for HOF candidates.

2:39
Tungsten Arm Ohtani: Yea or nay on the new scheduling with more interleague games and more travel?

2:41
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Whoops didn’t notice i answered two in a row from the same person. I am a curmudgeon on this stuff, and think that the effect of the increased amount of travel via this new schedule has not been properly accounted for — it may well be another factor in the increased number of arm injuries we’re seeing, an issue that’s commonly being attributed to the pitch clock

2:42
Travis: Will Strider end the season over 15k/9?

2:45
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Color me skeptical, because he and the Braves are going to have to manage his workload jump from last year’s 134 innings, and one way to do that is through a more efficient approach than using an MLB-high 4.38 pitches per plate appearance

2:46
Alberto: Anything on Jake Bauers?

2:46
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I’m certainly keeping an eye on him given the way the Yankees have struggled to find complements to their big guns, but let’s wait until he’s got more than 33 PA under his belt.

2:47
Dan: How bad does the Astros offseason look right now? Overpaying for Rafael Montero while getting nothing out of Jose Abreu and Michael Brantley. Maybe going most of the offseason without a GM was a bad idea.

2:50
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Not making a significant addition to the rotation to offset the loss of Verlander doesn’t look too smart either, particularly given the loss of Luis Garcia to Tommy John surgery. I wouldn’t count them out, though; they’re going to get Altuve back soon, they figure to get Bregman going, and so on.

2:57
Maple Maddux: If healthy, what are realistic expectations for Mike Soroka? Rejoin the MLB team by the ASB? Pitch 75-100 innings?

3:00
Avatar Jay Jaffe: That sounds about right. I know things aren’t going great for him in Gwinnett, though he has a 3.96 FIP to go with his 5.47 ERA. The big problem is that he’s not missing many bats, even given that he’s a sinker/slider guy

3:00
LFGM: The Mets have been mediocre at best this season.  The lineup is mostly the same as last season but Marte and Canha have been much worse.  They won’t be a 100 game win team, but where do you see them ending up this year?  90+ wins still likely?

3:02
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I wouldn’t say it’s likely anymore, though it remains possible. They need both Scherzer and Verlander to be healthy and effective, if not Cy Young contenders; so far, one-quarter of the way through the season, they’ve gotten a net of 0.3 WAR from the pair which is <checks notes> not a good return on the $86.7 million the pair is being paid.

3:03
Alex: Tell you what, as a Rays fan I would be a heck of a lot more worried about all of these injuries if the entire AL didn’t make the playoffs.  Do they have enough of a cushion that they can spend the rest of the season focusing on being healthy in October?

3:05
Avatar Jay Jaffe: no. They’re in good shape, eight games ahead of the sixth-best team in the AL, but they also play in a division where every team is above .500, and they’re just 6-7 against the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Orioles. Gonna have to slug it out better in the division

3:06
Brett: Can anyone explain Max Muncy’s extreme streaks? He bats .100 for two weeks, then torches the ball another two, and so on

3:08
Avatar Jay Jaffe: A lot of it in the past two years has had to do with his elbow and his mechanics. He’s gone back to something he was doing to get out of a slump in the second half of last year, which I wrote about here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/muncy-is-back-to-showing-maximum-power/

3:08
Kid: Speaking of the HOF, what will it look like in 20 years given that now we start talking about guys’ “decline phase” when they hit 30, versus a decade or so ago when guys would be getting long-term contracts at age 33. Very tough to see those old benchmarks – 500 HR, 3000 K, etc. – being reached with contemporary aging curves.

3:11
Avatar Jay Jaffe: It’s a good question given the dearth of players on the horizon for many of the major milestones. We won’t have as many “magic number” automatic qualifiers in the near future but I do expect guys like Harper, Machado, and Trout to get to 500 HR.

3:11
Mt Elden: Do you think Alex Bregman will ever recapture his superstar form from 2018-2019? He was great last year, but not what he was those seasons he was hitting for +30 homers

3:13
Avatar Jay Jaffe: the guy had a 136 wRC+ and 5.5 WAR as recently as last year, but he doesn’t hit the ball tremendously hard, and so with a less bouncy baseball i don’t think we’re gonna see another 40-homer season out of him.

3:13
John Olerud’s Helmet: Hello Mr Jay! Praise thee!! I’m sure this is partly my blind love of Mark Buehrle but how much better do you think he’d be in todays pitch clock era? He always pitched quick and now he wouldn’t have the batters able to step out on him constantly. I’m not saying he’d be a HOFer but surely he’d have a slightly higher WAR atleast right??

3:14
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I dunno, that seems to be a bit of a leap. If every pitcher worked as fast as Buehrle, batters might be more attuned to his rhythm and him him harder, perhaps.

3:15
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I don’t know whether that’s true or not but that’s my point: we can spin all of these unprovable theories in either direction. Gives us something to argue about over beers, at the very least.

3:16
Jason: (Submitted previous part too early) Where does Zac Gallen rank among starting pitchers (not a fantasy baseball question)? I don’t mean necessarily just based on this season, but at what level do you perceive him to be?

3:17
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I think he’s solidifying a spot among the top 10 starters in the game, maybe even a shorter list than that given that he’s looking like a Cy Young candidate.

3:18
Colton: Do you think the Cardinals shot themselves in the foot a bit for free agency with the amount of behind closed doors conversations that have become public this year?

3:20
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I don’t think they’ve done anything to help their cause, that’s for sure. I think a potential free agent might very well look at the rotation and the concentration of mid-30s talent in Goldschmidt and Arenado and decide they might be better off elsewhere — but then it’s also worth remembering that the Cardinals don’t play in the deep end of the pool, free agency-wise (the Contreras deal was a franchise record save for their re-up of Matt Holliday 10 years ago). It’s not like the next $300 million player or $200 million pitcher is going to pick against them, it’s that they won’t even put themselves into the conversation for his services.

3:21
KM: What was Aaron Judge doing with his eyeballs?

3:21
Avatar Jay Jaffe:

3:21
War2D2: the changes made over the offseason (pitch clock, shift ban, etc) were nominally made to encourage more fan interest, particularly among younger fans. Do you have a feel for what the early returns on the changes are? Have you heard from anyone “in industry” if they feel it’s helped? Or is it more “the games are shorter, so people will come, Ray, people will come.”

3:25
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I think there’s generally a positive buzz about the shorter games and the death of the shift. Attendance is up about 7%. Not sure where things stand regarding TV ratings. But it does seem like the game is getting a bit of a boost https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/majors/2023-misc.shtml

3:26
red sox fan: Do you think Brayan Bello has the stuff to be an ace some day?

3:29
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Seems to be a stretch to me, but in this day and age, when player development is so malleable thanks to the feedback offered by new technologies — pitch design, swing changes, all that — I wouldn’t count him out. His prospect grades include three potential plus pitches, but the’s not there yet. He’s got good velocity on his four-seam fastball but not much spin (6th percentile), and both it and his sinker do get hit. The changeup seems to be something special, and that’s an important building block.

3:29
Un-Locke St John: Are the Cardinals trying to use psychological torture to improve their performance?

3:29
Avatar Jay Jaffe: i prefer to think of it as ham-handed attempts at comic misdirection

3:30
Pitcher injuries: Pitcher injuries are up. do you think the pitch clock is a major factor?

3:30
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I certainly think it *could* be a factor but correlation doesn’t guarantee causality.

3:31
Ross: What is your level of concern for Julio? He has been really off all year. Making terrible swing decisions and chasing every low and away slider and up and in fastball off the plate.

3:34
Avatar Jay Jaffe: not very high. His chase, swing, and swinging strike rates are pretty much the same as last year, as are his xBA and xSLG, that despite him pulling the ball much less and producing fewer grounders.

I wonder if he’s been getting too much encouragement to change — “use the whole field more,” and “elevate more consistently” — when everything was working just fine last year.

3:35
Guest: Ozzie Albies came into this season saying he wanted to try and go 40/40. But it’s Mid-may and he’s only attempted 1 SB. What gives?

3:35
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I want to go 40/40 and i’m only one stolen base behind him!

3:38
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I really don’t know what’s going on there but wonder if there’s something about his foot. The Braves are running well when they do run (29-for-34 in steals) but they’re a few attempts below average relative to the other 29 teams.

3:38
Farhandrew Zaidman: Do you have a clear cut favorite between OAA, DRS, and UZR? Or is it still a “look at all three for the total picture” type deal?

3:38
Avatar Jay Jaffe: look at the whole picture

3:38
Colton: Going along with the Syndergaard question; do you think they’ll eat the money and move him to the ‘pen for Bobby Miller in the next several weeks? Or does Miller have to wait for an injury to get the call? Seems like he’d be an automatic upgrade for them over Noah but it’s always tough to tell.

3:39
Avatar Jay Jaffe: My guess is they buy as much time with Syndergaard as possible; he wasn’t terrible last night and so I’d imagine he’ll have a runway to build upon that for awhile.

3:40
ScottSki45: We talk about players and even trailblazers but who is your top Manager or Executive outside the Hall?

3:41
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Deferring to the Negro Leagues experts, I think Vic Harris is probably the top manager outside the Hal; I wrote about his candidacy for the 2022 Early Baseball ballot here https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2022-early-baseball-era-committee-candidat…

3:43
Avatar Jay Jaffe: As for executives, it might be Beane, Epstein, or Cashman but it’s probably too early to close the books on them. Brian Sabean? I’ve made the case for Buzzie Bavasi before, and think he belongs. Lots to choose from.

3:44
Marshall: deGrom and Kershaw are nearly the same age. Who do you think puts up more rest-of-career WAR?

3:45
Avatar Jay Jaffe: deGrom but only because he’s under contract through 2027, and I expect we might not have more than another season from Kershaw after this one.

3:46
Avatar Jay Jaffe: ok folks, plenty of good q still in the queue but the shoulder is starting to show some wear, so I’m going to hit the showers. thanks so much for stopping by, we’ll do it again next week.





Brooklyn-based Jay Jaffe is a senior writer for FanGraphs, the author of The Cooperstown Casebook (Thomas Dunne Books, 2017) and the creator of the JAWS (Jaffe WAR Score) metric for Hall of Fame analysis. He founded the Futility Infielder website (2001), was a columnist for Baseball Prospectus (2005-2012) and a contributing writer for Sports Illustrated (2012-2018). He has been a recurring guest on MLB Network and a member of the BBWAA since 2011, and a Hall of Fame voter since 2021. Follow him on Twitter @jay_jaffe... and BlueSky @jayjaffe.bsky.social.

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Brian547member
10 months ago

I know I lose points for the Espino stuff, in my defense his stuff was amazing. Who in the minors has better pure stuff than William’s?