Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 5/19/26

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks!

Jay Jaffe: Welcome to another edition of my weekly chat. Apologies for missing last week, as I was in the midst of my big Ted Turner/Bobby Cox tribute piece and didn’t have the bandwidth to pull this off.

Jay Jaffe: Before we get started, I need to note that we’re trying a new system with our chats, where you’re required to log in to FanGraphs to ask a question. You don’t need to be a Member, but you do need to have an account, just like you need an account to comment on any article. We’ll see how it goes. If you have feedback, feel free to just leave it as a question, or you can send a note to support@fangraphs.com.

Jay Jaffe: I’ve got a piece on the Padres’ surprising spot in the standings — first place in the NL West — despite the underperformances of Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado, Jackson Merrill and others which should go up while this chat is underway.

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday I wrote about Blake Snell heading for surgery to remove loose bodies from his elbow. Dr. Neal ElAttrache will be using the same NanoNeedle procedure as he used on Tarik Skubal — the Skubal Scope, as some are calling it — which could shave about a month off his recovery time https://blogs.fangraphs.com/everybody-whos-anybody-is-getting-loose-bo…

Jay Jaffe: oh, and here’s that Turner/Cox thing. https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ted-turner-1938-2026-and-bobby-cox-1941-20…

And now, on with the show…

Matthew VanWinkle: The Red Sox have scored three runs or fewer in nine straight games, the first time that’s happened since 2012. If they’re held under again tonight it’s their longest string since 1955.

Jay Jaffe: While that’s not a question, it’s worth sharing. I … really just am amazed at the way the Red Sox have just continued to fall all over themselves since winning it all in 2018. They’ve produced some talented players, but they’ve bled top-level talent, and made some big mistakes along the way. Right now this looks like another unhappy summer in Beantown (derogatory).

bubbles: Level of surprise that Ohtani is 11th on the career ERA- SP leaderboard? He is 29th in career wRC+ so by peer rating he has somehow been a better pitcher than hitter.

Jay Jaffe: I get fifth in SP ERA- since 1871 using our defaults (https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&lg=al%2Cnl&qual…), but should point out that he’s done that with just 572.2 innings, which the equivalent of about 3 seasons of full-time starting spread out over nine seasons due to injuries and other limitations.

Jay Jaffe: By comparison, he’s got 4500-ish plate appearances, about eight seasons worth of playing time

Jay Jaffe: so it’s not an equal comparison

Tulkas: Realistically, do the Mets have 3 RoY candidates on the team right now?

Jay Jaffe: I see Nolan McLean as a legitimate contender for the award but don’t think Carson Benge is anywhere near consideration. Who’s the third?

Daniel Bergman: How much more leash do you think the Yankees give Bednar as closer, given the number of runs he gave up recently

Jay Jaffe: Probably not that long given that they have an obvious alternative — an experienced closer who’s throwing the ball well — in Camilo Doval, but I don’t think Bednar’s been that bad. he’s done a great job of suppressing hard contact but is being BABIPed to death to some degree.

souldougie: Let’s say two players end a season with exactly 2 fWAR. Player one put up his 2 fWAR in just 60 days, and is a net-zero for the rest of the season, while player two is consistently starter-level but nothing more nothing less throughout the season. Which player would you rather have on your team? Is player one worth it just for those two months of all-star-level play?

Jay Jaffe: over a longer haul, the higher-variance guy is probably the right answer, since those are the ones more likely to push you towards the playoffs in a good year, but over the shorter term, 2 months doesn’t get you that much except under the right circumstances so I think I’d go with Steady Eddie.

puddle: Is it fair to say that Andy Pages is the Dodgers best fielding position player at this point?

Jay Jaffe: I’d say so, both by the eye test and by the metrics. He’s got the highest DRS and FRV on the team, and is second to Pete Crow-Armstrong among all center fielders in both categories.

AutomatedTeller: Yeah, I feel like the Sox went from a really well-run franchise to a crap show.     Dylan Crews – from what I can remember, the Nats sent him down, basically cause he was striking out too much.  So far, in AAA, he’s struck out more than at any other place in his career.  Yet, they are bringing him up.  I guess the question is:  do the Nats know what they are doing?  they have a fair amount of talent, at least at the plate.

Jay Jaffe: it’s always a little concerning when you see a guy posting higher K% and swinging strike % at Triple-A than he had in the majors but… we don’t always know the whole story; the team may be asking him to look only in certain spots, or whatever. A lot of times guys are better off in the majors with more hands-on instruction than in the minors, but I’m not sure about the particulars in Washington. They’re a respectable 23-25 while scoring an NL-high 5.46 runs per game, so I’m inclined to cut them a bit of slack but… we’ll see how it goes for Crews.

sandwiches4ever: I feel like the Tatis homerless streak isn’t getting enough play given just how…insanely improbable it feels given his career numbers. Based on his HR/PA numbers, he would be expected to be in the high single digits now, but nothing. Can you recall anything similar to this degree?

Jay Jaffe: Wrote a bit about Tatis today, mostly just reiterating what Mike Petriello wrote recently at MLB.com https://www.mlb.com/news/fernando-tatis-jr-strange-start-2026. Basically he’s closed up his stance and is trying to use the whole field more, but his attack angle has become more shallow and he’s hitting a lot more on the ground. He’s still got an excellent 56% hard-hit rate, but he’s just not elevating — all of which is to say that the power is still there but I think he needs to iron out his mechanics and timing.

Jay Jaffe: Mike Trout had a 28-game homerless drought in 2015, when he was still at his peak. I’m sure there are other famous ones that I’m not thinking of right now but that one comes to mind – it probably cost him an MVP award

Jay Jaffe: That was a 41-homer season, btw!

Phil: “Falling all over themselvea” is fair as a general summation but incomplete. As a Red Sox fan, I think a lot of what went wrong this year was a kind of myopic, excessive principledness. Breslow was determined not to trade Duran except for fair value as he perceived it, and not to give up more than perceived fair value for an infielder (he does deserve credit for acquiring Contreras, but that obviously wasn’t enough). He overvalued run prevention in acquiring Durbin and being content with the catching tandem (whose defense they like better than fWAR does). And he put too much faith in internal projections for Mayer and (last year) Campbell. They’ve tried to be a “smart” team in hiring Bloom amd Breslow, and they have been, in some ways, too “smart” for their own good.

Jay Jaffe: I remember when half a chat jumped all over me for being less than wowed by Duran’s 3.9-WAR 2025 season after his 6.8-WAR 2024, but even i”m surprised how Duran has bottomed out (.181/.247/.301) — and of course he’s bled value. The Sox have come up with some good players but their roster construction stinks on ice, and there’s been a lot lost in translation between prospect status and the majors  for the likes of Kristian Campbell and Marcello Mayer.

Jay Jaffe: They’ve come up with some good pitching (Early, Tolle, etc) but Bello was supposed to be at least a solid back-of-the-rotation pitcher and he’s now a mess.

InsertWittyNameHere: Is there a Schwarber article coming anytime soon?  8 HR’s in 9 games recently, and if he gets even hotter when the weather gets hotter, some records may be in reach.

Jay Jaffe: Surprisingly, no, so I just nominated myself to do something on him soon

mcgraw45: I know you’re posting an article about this – but can the padres keep getting away with this? Adding Giolito and Canning should help

Jay Jaffe: Giolito should help but Canning has been roughed up in his last two starts. The short version of what I wrote is that the Padres have had some very good situational hitting and have excelled in high-leverage situations on both sides of the ball. They obviously have a great closer in Mason Miller to anchor the back end of the bullpen but i’m expecting some regression on the offensive side even as the big boys right themselves

odin525: Speaking of underperforming sluggers, where do the issues lie with Vlad? Seems he intentionally changed his approach but such a huge dropoff in HHR and Barrels. Is his body type catching up to him or something else? Decent hitter but no longer imposing.

Jay Jaffe: He’s chasing more and hitting the ball on the ground more while striking out even less. I guess he wants to be Luis Arraez?

Jay Jaffe: not really sure what’s going on there but yeah, he’s worth a closer look

Jeff in Jersey: I would guess the Mets question before meant A.J. Ewing as the 3rd candidate who might get ROY votes. He’s been super-exciting to watch, but it’d take a ton for him to get into the conversation with McLean, Stewart, Weatherholt, and Marksee. But don’t sleep on Benge–looking really good the past few weeks…

Jay Jaffe: Benge and Ewing looking good for a couple of weeks is a positive develpment but i’d stop short of calling either of them true ROY candidates. A candidate is a guy whom I’d at least consider for one of the five spots on ROY ballot and neither has the numbers for that yet. Ask me again in August and maybe that will have changed.

Jay Jaffe: Lunch has arrived, so if the breakneck pace of this chat slows down, that’s why

Jay Jaffe: it’s chicken tinga sopes, for those of you scoring at home

leoneforthird: Emerson Hancock has been a bright spot this year for an underperforming Seattle squad.  Is there anything in his underlying numbers that indicated these results are sustainable or is he a SSS mirage?

Jay Jaffe: I don’t think i’m ready to call him a true-talent 3.00ish ERA guy but both his
3.63 FIP  and 3.98 xERA are run-and-a-half improvements over last year, and his 27.1% strikeout rate and 4.8% walk rate are both exceptional. It’s a  real breakout

Jay Jaffe: Here’s that Padres piece https://blogs.fangraphs.com/timely-play-has-put-the-padres-in-first-pl…

luke: What’s your overall opinion of Ben Cherington’s career? In Boston he “won” and in Pittsburgh he’s “winning” but I was surprised he was given this chance. I thought he deserved to be fired last year with Shelton. Is he a top 50% GM?

Jay Jaffe: It’s very hard to judge a Pirates GM given the team’s spending limitations but he’s got a .500ish team with some very bright spots including Skenes and Griffin, both of whom he drafted, and it’s not like they’ve got a lot of terrible contracts on the books. I’d put him in the upper 50% but still towards the middle of the pack

Phil: I had been planning to ask about Brayan Bello, and then just now I saw Baumann’s article, which certainly eases no concerns. What are the likelier options here? When guys start coming off the IL, Tolle has to stay in the rotation,, the way he’s pitching, right? So, long reliever role for Bello? Or figure things out in Worcester?

Jay Jaffe: he had two very good outings in a bulk role behind an opener and then got the snot beat out of him as a traditional starter. I’m not sure why he’s struggling so much, especially against lefties, but i’d probably try to keep using him in an opener/bulk format and work on finding him a better approach against lefties. Finding the missing mph would help too

Philip Christy: If Juan Soto got one plate appearance next season and then left baseball forever, would you vote for him for the Hall Of Fame?

Jay Jaffe: i’d need more context than that. Is he retiring to become a doctor and cure rare diseases? is he suffering some terrible physical ailment? or is he buying the world’s biggest yacht and spending his days counting his money? Would seem to be a waste of talent if it’s the last of those. I’d need a good justification for retirement to vote for him.

war2d2: The Cubs have had a remarkable season from the perspective of runners left on base, being dead last in the league with just over 8 per game and more than half a runner ahead of (or behind?) the Pirates. It’s infuriating to watch them load the bases and then pop out to end the inning. This is just small-sample theater and has got to eventually come out in the wash, right? The league-leading Padres are stranding two fewer runners per game than the Cubs are.

Jay Jaffe: interestingly enough, there’s a table in today’s Padres piece where I compare team hitting with bases empty vs. with runners in scoring position. The Padres are basically tied for the second-largest gap (RISP > Empty) while the Cubs have the largest negative gap (Empty > RISP).

Jay Jaffe:

Jay Jaffe: I’d chalk up most of that to small-sample theater, and would expect some regression.

Jay Jaffe: but I understand it’s gotta be maddening to watch nonetheless

dan norman lear: What players of the 70s/80s do you think would be most helped by being active now, with the way the game is played/tech advances?  For some reason, John Wockenfuss leaps to mind. As he does.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t know about accounting for the tech stuff, and i’m probably not the first one to say this, but Brian Downing and his 20-homer, .370 OBP seasons would have gotten a lot more love than just one All-Star selection. And the proto Zobristian Tony Phillips would have made an All-Star team at least once.

war2d2: I missed that you had a Padres piece out. Sorry for all the questions I posted that could be answered with a URL!

Jay Jaffe: Hey, it went live like half an hour ago. it won’t answer all your questions but it’s a start.

war2d2: Both Murakami and (to a much lesser extent) Okamoto are having better seasons than Bregman. I didn’t like the Bregman signing because of the length, but now I’m wondering if even a 3-year deal would have been too long. He’s been fine, but only just, and I feel like they could have had the exact output from Shaw for virtually nothing. With the benefit of hindsight do you think the Cubs would have been better off chasing one of the NPB guys as a DH instead of Bregman as a 3B?

Jay Jaffe: I think eight weeks is a bit early to start second-guessing too much. Murakami is off to a great start despite striking out nearly one-third of the time, and maybe the industry misjudged his ability to adjust somewhat, and he does have the age advantage over Bregman, but I think the Cubs valued Bregman for non-statistical reasons as well, and I still think there’s a big gap between where he and Shaw are presently.

Jay Jaffe: OK folks, it’s Air Conditioner Installation Day here at Casa Jaffe-Span, so i’ve got an appointment with a couple of windows. Thanks for stopping by!