Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 5/5/26

Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my first chat of May! Happy Cinco de Mayo to those celebrating, and a belated happy Star Wars Day if that’s your thing.

Jay Jaffe: On Friday I wrote about the league scoring environment through the end of April, noting that walk rates are up, likely due to the impact of the new ABS Challenge system https://blogs.fangraphs.com/more-walks-more-runs-an-early-look-at-offe…

Jay Jaffe: On Sunday I had a bizarre gardening accident, but fared better than the average Spinal Tap drummer https://bsky.app/profile/jayjaffe.bsky.social/post/3mkxvubesl22v

Jay Jaffe: Yesterday, I wrote about Ildemaro Vargas’ unlikely hitting streak. (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/ildemaro-vargas-is-suddenly-a-hitting-mach…), and last night I went up to Yankee Stadium to do some reporting to supplement a tribute to longtime Yankees radio play-by-play broadcaster John Sterling, who passed away at age 87. That will be up tomorrow.

Jay Jaffe: Sterling, of course, is famous in the site’s lore https://x.com/JSterlingCalls/status/1300580776464068608

Jay Jaffe: and one final programming note: next Tuesday evening I’ll be accompanying MLB.com’s Michael Clair to Word Bookstores in Williamsburg to moderate a discussion of his book on the Czech Republic’s national baseball team and its unlikely rise: https://bsky.app/profile/michaelclair.bsky.social/post/3ml4k6v4zqs2u

Jay Jaffe: Ok, and now, on with the show!

Sid the Astros Kid: loose bodies man, idk what they are but they’re taking out everyone

Jay Jaffe: “Loose bodies” is a catch-all term that has more or less replaced “bone chips” in the sports medicine lexicon, because some of those fragments aren’t bone but cartilage.

Jay Jaffe: Here’s how Will Carroll described them in his Under the Knife newsletter yesterday:

“Those loose bodies are fragments of bone or cartilage that have broken free and are literally floating inside the elbow joint. They can come from a single event, a chip knocked loose, but more often in pitchers they’re the byproduct of something ongoing. Repetitive stress, especially valgus extension overload, creates small bone spurs or cartilage damage that eventually fragments. Those fragments don’t just sit there. They move, they catch, they lock the joint for a split second, or they irritate the synovial lining. Sometimes they even grow, accumulating more material over time.

“That’s why the surgery has evolved in how it’s treated afterward. It used to be a quick fix. Clean it out, a few weeks, and back on the mound. Teams learned the hard way that the loose body wasn’t the real problem. It was the symptom, not the diagnosis. Something created that debris, and unless that something is addressed, the cycle can repeat…

Jay Jaffe: “The rehab now reflects that, with a more cautious ramp, often six to eight weeks at minimum and sometimes longer depending on how the joint responds.”

Jay Jaffe: Carroll was writing about Tarik Skubal’s diagnosis and impending surgery. Ben Clemens covered that for us https://blogs.fangraphs.com/tarik-skubals-injury-leaves-him-and-the-ti…

Jay Jaffe: I wrote about Edwin Díaz in that context a couple weeks ago. The good news is that this is a procedure from which players generally return in-season in predictable fashion.
https://blogs.fangraphs.com/edwin-diaz-is-headed-for-surgery-shaking-u…

just judge things: Casually tied for the MLB lead in fWAR and home runs, on his way to 200 wRC+ and, barring another dumb wall, becoming the first person to ever hit 50 HR 5x. No caveats necessary (since integration/AL/Right handed, etc.). Is the fact that he seems like he’s gonna do it more amazing or the fact that no one has ever done that before? I just can’t believe Ruth or someone never did.

Jay Jaffe: What Aaron Judge has done is pretty damn remarkable. Ruth came close — one more homer in 1930 would have done it — and while he was doing it at a time that home runs were far less common, what Judge is doing is against a higher caliber of competition and a larger player pool. Still, the man is somewhat injury-prone, as you allude to, so let’s not count our chickens before they’ve knocked on wood or whatever.

OW: Would you guess over or under 115 wRC+ for the remainder of Ildemaro Vargas’s season?

Jay Jaffe: Good question. A friend asked me if it was time to put him in the same class as late bloomers like José Bautista and Justin Turner, and I said I’d like to see at least a couple hundred more plate appearances before I start fully believing it; both were much more selective hitters than Vargas, and we need to see how he reacts when the league adjusts to him and starts finding holes in his swing. That said, he’s been pulling balls in the air, and so he’s clearly figured something out; I’d take the over on 115 wRC+, but not by much.

Jeremy: I recall an old line from Bill James’ Historical Baseball Abstract, about how some players who aren’t in the Hall of Fame were clearly much better than some who are: “The Hall of Fame is a self-defining institution that has failed to define itself.” (Going by memory, but that’s pretty close to an exact quote.) A lot of time has passed since James wrote that. Do you think that was true back then? Is it still true today?

Jay Jaffe: That quote sounds correct, and I think it’s from his 1994 book, The Politics of Glory (retitled for paperback Whatever Happened to the Hall of Fame?).

Jay Jaffe: That was definitely true back then. I believe that the Hall has tried to define itself a bit more in reaction to PED-linked players, and I think my work and that of others (including James) has tried to apply some definition, some firmer standards, with regards to who gets elected. But it’s one battle after another; I’m goddamn sick of seeing Don Mattingly and Steve Garvey getting nominated every three years instead of other candidates who deserve longer looks.

Redsfan4life: Is McLain cooked? He seems healthy but is somehow worse than last year.

Jay Jaffe: Woof, Matt McLain isn’t in a good place. He’s regained some bat speed and he’s pulling the ball in the air a bit more often, but his exit velo, barrel rate and expected stats are pretty much identical. I don’t think he should be in the majors while he’s struggling like thi; he does have three minor league options remaining.

Richard B: What do you make of Machado’s start to the season? Is he a buy for you?

Jay Jaffe: If you squint at different sample sizes maybe you can convince yourself he’s trending upwards, but I don’t see much to give me confidence in that. He’s a guy who tends to tinker with his stance but he doesn’t seem to be in a good place right now and I wonder about his health — he’s a guy who’s almost impossible to get out of the lineup unless he’s very injured.

All Rise: Which is more likely – Aaron Judge retires with 2,000+ hits or Aaron Judge retires with 550+ home runs?

Jay Jaffe: the latter, I think, but I do believe he’ll get to both thresholds.

Guest: What kind of return could the Giants get for Robby Ray?

Jay Jaffe: i think a best-case scenario for a pending free agent starting pitcher is maybe a 50-FV prospect, but that probably has to come with some salary relief. The Blue Jays traded a 50-FV guy for Shane Bieber but he was making only $10 million last year. The Dodgers gave up a 50-FV and a 45-FV prospect for Jack Flaherty in 2024, but he was making $14 million.

Beano: JR Ritchie – a “find” or a fill-in? And what’s your take on Eldridge?

Jay Jaffe: he’s a real prospect, no. 68 on our Top 100 in the preseason as a 50-FV guy. Whether he has an impact this season is a separate question; the Braves just got Spencer Strider back, and may get Reynaldo López straightened out and Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep back from loose bodies surgeries before the All-Star break. Ritchie might be one of the guys bumped if those things happen as anticipated. But he can force the conversation by pitching well.

2027 HOF: Other than Dusty Baker and Bruce Bochy, are there any obvious HOF candidates for the ERA Committee this December?

Jay Jaffe: Lou Piniella has fallen one vote short twice in a row; I don’t think he’s as good a managerial candidate as Bochy or Baker but he’ll be back for more. I’d love to see Bill White — who fell two votes short last time — elected as a full member of the Hall but he did just get named as the Buck O’Neil Award winner, which may be an excuse to kick that can down the road, a cold-ass thing to do to a 92-year-old man.

Tigers fan: How much did Skubal’s injury cost him in free agency? (3 years and $150 million)?

Jay Jaffe: I’d take the under on that. This is going to cut into the value of his walk year but it’s a comparatively routine surgery and recovery, not a major career interruption. If he wants a long-term deal he’s gonna get offers of $300 million or higher.

DJ: Article Idea: A mock expansion draft for two hypothetical teams being added to MLB. It’s been nearly 30 years since the last MLB expansion draft, it would be interesting to what it might look like in terms of the current day player pool and roster building thought process.

Jay Jaffe: When we have two expansion teams named and a real timeline, that’s an exercise worth doing, but we’re a ways from that happening, with the completion of the next CBA and the resolution of the Rays and A’s stadium sagas all above it in the pecking order.

sam: Any thoughts on how real Davis martin’s start to the year is? I was hesitant for the first couple of starts but last night looked real – fastball, changeup, slider all playing great off one another (against the Angels but still). Looked like a totally different pitcher then the last couple of years.

Jay Jaffe: Not 30 seconds ago, one of our writers put in a claim on a Martin article so I’m just gonna tease it and tell you to sit tight.

Jeremy: Re: Ildemaro Vargas’ hitting streak: what are the most impressive hot streaks in baseball history by bad-to-mediocre players? I guess Dale Long homering in eight straight games has to be up there.

Jay Jaffe: I don’t have a lot of ideas off the top of my head but here’s one. It’s an overstatement to call Orlando Cabrera a mediocre player, I think, since he was an adept fielder at his best, but the fact that he owns the longest on-base streak in major league expansion-era history — 63 games — despite a career .317 OBP is remarkable when you consider the alternatives such as Ruth, Hornsby, Bonds, Boggs, Judge, etc.

Jeremy: Re: hot streaks by mediocre-to-bad players, maybe Zoilo Versalles’ entire 1965 season should count? 7 fWAR, AL MVP, but despite playing 12 seasons never had another season over 3 fWAR, only two other seasons over 2 fWAR, and five seasons with negative fWAR.

Farhandrew Zaidman: Should we start ringing the alarm bells on Austin Riley? Not in a “he’s a bad player” way, more of a “he’s a corner infielder who hasn’t had an OPS above 800 since 2023 with mediocre defense and those dudes typically don’t get $200 mil contracts” sort of way?

Jay Jaffe: He’s 29, signed through 2032, and in his second straight year of clear decline both in actual production and expected production based on his Statcast numbers. Yeah, that’s not a good place to be at all.

Endy Chavez’s Outstretched Arm: Given Murakami’s production, how concerned are you with his contact issues? Is .225/.335/.475 realistic going forward?

Jay Jaffe: I’m less concerned than I was at the outset of the season, for sure. And so are the projection systems. Given the impact of his strong early start, his Depth Charts slash projection has improved from .234/.343/.449 in the preseason to .234/.349/.471 today. so yeah, your numbers appear to be realistic

Endy Chavez’s Outstretched Arm: What do you think of Kazuma Okamoto’s season so far? I’ve been surprised by his strikeout rate, but his power has also been better than expected.

Jay Jaffe: I’m with you. he’s hitting .236/.322/.465 (119 wRC+) but is about 40 points short of his xSLG, so I think he can be better. I’m a bit alarmed by the 29.2% strikeout rate considering he went about 19%/16%/11% over his last three seasons in Japan (the last one a shortened one)

Jay Jaffe: But I think on the whole he’ll be fine

Mr. Burrito: I’ve seen chatter that Will Smith eventually could switch to 3B. Other than Todd Zeile and Joe Torre, has that transition panned out? (And from what I recall if Z’s defense “panned out” is iffy)…. More importantly, should the Dodgers consider such a move?

Jay Jaffe: Josh Donaldson won an MVP award after converting from catcher to third, BJ Surhoff was decent there before moving on to left field, and Brandon Inge turned in some good seasons. Craig Biggio converted from catcher to second base, which has to be harder.

Jay Jaffe: As to whether the Dodgers do it with Smith, I don’t see a pressing need even with Dalton Rushing going small-sample bananas given that Max Muncy is off to another great start. It might be something worth experimenting with in spring training next year if Rushing maintains his strong season, but let’s also see how his defense develops.

Aaron: Jay,
Hope all is well! With Matt Olson hitting his 300th career HR last night, where do you currently peg his HOF chances? Obviously he’s a good ways away at the moment, but do you think if he can finish his career with ~450 HRS, 1250 RBI, and 2,000 hits he could mount a decent case with  old school voters? Thanks!

Jay Jaffe: I’ve started to think Olson has a chance, because in addition to being an excellent hitter he’s a great defender. By bWAR, his 2023 and 2025 seasons (7.5 and 6.0 WAR, respectively) are his best, and those are recent; he’s also got two others above 5.0 and appears to be on his way to a third (2.5 so far). His WAR7 is at 35.7 and with, say,  6-WAR season would improve to 37.4 — 40.0 is where **** gets real, with a player havign about a 75% chance of future induction.

Forget it, Jake. It’s Mets: NL-worst NYM finally showing signs of life. Do I dare to put hope in that still-remaining 30% chance of playoffs the site gives them?

Jay Jaffe: It’s the Mets. You can hope, but you should know better.

mmddyyyy: Do all teams have the same number of minor league affiliates?

Jay Jaffe: After the contraction from a few years ago, they all have the same four from A-ball on up: A, A+, AA, AAA. Below that, everybody’s got a Complex League team  in either Arizona or Florida and I think they all have a Dominican Summer League team, though I know the Reds have had two of those in recent years, and I’m not sure how many others do.

FannyGraphy: What is the highest WAR of a player to never make an all star team? Also, sort of related, are there many players in the hall of fame who have zero all star game appearances? Thank you

Jay Jaffe: Well, there are a bunch of guys whose careers entirely predate the advent of the All-Star Game in 1933, including Walter Johnson, Cy Young, Pete Alexander, Kid Nichols, and Christy Mathewson, all with well over 100 WAR (Johnson has the most bWAR including offense; not sure about fWAR off the top of my head). More recently, I believe it’s Tony Phillips who holds the distinction, with 50.9 bWAR and 46.6 fWAR.

KC: How does a guy like Cam Schlittier go from an unknown to one of the top pitchers in baseball?

Jay Jaffe: Maybe the Yankees aren’t as bad at player development — particularly on the pitching side — as some people want to believe? He’s a 6-foot-6 dude who has gained velocity and improved his command thanks to better mechanics and a switch from a slider to a cutter.

Jason N: Too early to think about what Mason Miller needs to do to enter the “Is he on track for the HoF?” discussions

Jay Jaffe: Waaaay too early. Like a decade too early. Gonna have to pile up saves and strikeouts, and survive the inevitable arm injuries

Jay Jaffe: Sorry if that sounds bleak but the last thing i’m forecasting ina Cooperstown sense is a 100+-mph throwing reliever with 61 career saves.

Jay Jaffe: We’re not even sure if Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, and Aroldis Chapman will get a long enough look from voters, and they smashed strikeout rate records while piling up saves

Sully: re: mattingly. There are only a handful of MLB players who there’s a legitimate argument for that they were the best player in baseball for 2-3 years.

Jay Jaffe: And we have ample evidence that two or three years isn’t enough in a Hall of Fame sense. Dale Murphy’s in the same boat.

Jay Jaffe: Ok folks, the lunch bell tolls for me. Thanks so much for stopping by!