Brendan Gawlowski Prospects Chat: 5/5/26

2:01
Brendan Gawlowski: Hello everybody

2:01
Brendan Gawlowski: First, a poll

2:01
Brendan Gawlowski:

Which MILB.tv game should we all follow?

Rancho-Ontario (35.2% | 24 votes)
 
Spokane-Tri Cities? (64.7% | 44 votes)
 

Total Votes: 68
2:02
Brendan Gawlowski: House keeping items: I published a Padres list last week. Eric and James pushed the Cubs list out the door yesterday.

2:03
Brendan Gawlowski: Eric and I are working on the Orioles. It is a very different flavor of system than KC and SD to say the least

2:03
Brendan Gawlowski: Tri-City and Spokane is going on in the background… And away we go

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2:04
Robbie: Thoughts on tyler bremner’s start? Should he be promoted?

2:04
Brendan Gawlowski: Speak of the devil, Bremner is starting in this game

2:04
Brendan Gawlowski: Saw Bremner a few weeks back, wrote him up here.

2:05
Brendan Gawlowski: Want to see him throw more sliders regardless of where he does it. Seems like AA would be an appropriate test at this point.

2:05
Gary: Who was higher on Pedro Ramirez? You or Eric?

2:05
Brendan Gawlowski: Eric but he also did a lot more work on that than I did. I support his judgment.

2:05
Datt Mamon: Are Jamie Arnold and Tyler Bremner worth hanging on to in deep keeper leagues

2:05
Brendan Gawlowski: I can’t imagine they’re not

2:06
Guest: Thoughts on Arjun Nimmala’s start to the year + the move to AA

2:07
Brendan Gawlowski: He’s been good, particularly over the last three weeks or so. I don’t think this is hasty. I suspect he’s not going to move super quickly through the upper minors and that his profile will look better and better as he gets stronger.

2:07
Guardian FO: What do you make of the recent Guardians promotions? Chourio got to be getting back to top100 status with his recent play?

2:08
Brendan Gawlowski: Bazzana promotion seems appropriate. Chourio I think you could justify either approach. I’m not ready to jump all in on him though.

2:08
Gary: Has Argenis Cayama caught the eye of the prospect team?

2:08
Brendan Gawlowski: Saw him last spring, like him, in a 40, maybe 40+ sort of way

2:08
JoshCleveland: Plenty of Guardians breakout in the minors this season. Who has a chance of a top100 appearance? Robert Arias/Walton/Ingle/Caceres?

2:08
Brendan Gawlowski: Arias the leader in the clubhouse there

2:08
Sean Keys: you said to circle back next week when you did a deep dive on him. What’s the thoughts?

2:08
Brendan Gawlowski: Looks pretty similar to me.

2:09
Brendan Gawlowski: If you want to feel optimistic about the guy, he has a couple round up traits. Extremely good pre-game work, plays his butt off. Everybody seems to like him.

2:09
Bob Nutting Scouting Dept.: Where does Anthony Volpe land on the latest top 100?

2:10
Brendan Gawlowski: A good reminder that this game moves fast. A year ago, Volpe and his torpedo bat were breaking out. Colson Montgomery couldn’t make contact in AAA and was in the complex.

2:10
DJ: Was the Padres system about what you expected going into the process, or were there any “surprises” either good or bad?

2:11
Brendan Gawlowski: Schoolcraft was rawer, Fountain got hurt, Cruz’s career is in jeopardy… Lot of surprises, most of them bad.

2:11
Brendan Gawlowski: Su was the pleasant surprise.

2:11
Brendan Gawlowski: And obviously good timing on Salas starting to hit

2:11
Kumar Rocker in the House Tonight: I know he’s a prospect no more, but I’m curious about Kumar Rocker, a former top 100 guy and high pick who has struggled. Is this who he is, or does that pedigree suggest more?

2:12
Brendan Gawlowski: Much like mountain weather, if you’re not happy with what Kumar looks like at the moment, wait 30 minutes, he may be a completely different guy.

2:12
Guest: What are your thoughts on Blake Mitchell?  What prospects have been like him that have power but also have a K and BB rate above 30%?

2:12
Brendan Gawlowski: He’s trolling this season

2:12
Brendan Gawlowski: Absurdly three true outcomes oriented

2:13
Brendan Gawlowski: Which he already was and now he’s found another gear

2:13
Brendan Gawlowski: I still like him, I’m glad we ranked him. Curious to see how the approach plays against better arms.

2:13
Scott: Not sure who is working Boston’s list, but any changes on Jake Bennet since the trade?

2:14
Brendan Gawlowski: Looks like a 45 to me

2:14
Brendan Gawlowski: Good changeup, fastball is a little deceptive, not sure he has the breaking ball for more than that.

2:14
Padres: Which player was the big disappointment in the padres list? You teased a disappointment in the chat last week. Wondering if you would explain? Thanks so much!

2:15
Brendan Gawlowski: Not so much a disappointment but it was Humberto Cruz

2:15
NFP: A lot of what causes prospects to pan/not pan out seems to be “hidden” from available data. In most cases, you can build that skepticism into a guy’s report when he’s still in the low minors, but for guys like Coby Mayo, who raked as a prospect and then cratered in the majors, how could scouts have predicted he’d get absolutely eaten alive by big league sliders?

2:15
Brendan Gawlowski: Can’t speak for everybody, but I’m friends with a scout who was never on him all the way up the chain.

2:17
Guest: Walks are still high but last start was dominant. How close is Johnny King to the 100?

2:17
Brendan Gawlowski: Let’s see how the rest of the year goes. Looking forward to seeing Vancouver soon, will have a notes piece on him I imagine.

2:17
Farhandrew Zaidman: Ben in his chat yesterday talked about “model blindness” and referenced Seam Shifted Wake, which didn’t exist until it did. What else do you think we’re missing in the data because it’s hard/impossible to measure?

2:18
Brendan Gawlowski: Feel for the game, makeup, context behind the performances, people talking past each other on bat speed… plenty of things

2:19
Cody Bellinger’s 5 O’Clock Shadow: Biggest instance of a non-prospect (in your eyes) who surprised you and ended up having success in the big leagues?

2:20
Brendan Gawlowski: There are a couple guys — and will likely be more — who I didn’t think would make it and did. Fraser Ellard, Kyle McCann. I was a grade light on Max Schuemann, thought he was just an up and down guy.

2:20
Phil: How differently do you evaluate a guy who undergoes a more serious surgery (TJ, Shoulders etc) vs one that seems lesser but persistent like Aiden Miller’s back?

2:20
Brendan Gawlowski: Case by case.

2:20
Brendan Gawlowski: Back issues are scary. See Carter, Evan.

2:21
Ugueth Oviraptor: Do you think that the Pangaea during the Mesozoic era would have impacted performance after travel/Sunday-getaway games for dinosaurs?  I assume it would change the way we utilize international scouting?

2:21
Brendan Gawlowski: Incredible question

2:22
Jon: How about that Austin Charles fella?

2:22
Brendan Gawlowski: Huge dude, late bloomer traits. Encouraging that he’s hitting in High-A.

2:23
JJ: Favorite dubious yet entertaining gambit? Mine is the Urusov

2:23
Brendan Gawlowski: Elephant

2:23
Alec: Minor league pitching prospects often don’t have stellar stand-out base stats like ERA or WHIP even if they’re developing well, whether it’s due to shorter outings limiting strong starts or working on certain pitches as some examples. What would you say are some stickier areas to look at to see if a pitcher is developing well, assuming I don’t have the ability to watch the games myself?

2:24
Brendan Gawlowski: Strikeouts, walks, hits. Innings a big one too. I don’t know how all these pitchers who capped at 60-70 pitches are ever going to start.

2:24
David: Any signs of improvement in the first month of the year for Lazaro Montes? At a glance from AA last year to this year a slight uptick in Walks, Strikeouts and Contact %, anything else positive or Negative for him? Obviously this past week was absurd but just in general.

2:25
Brendan Gawlowski: Still himself. Still has a huge move and swing and I think he’ll need to tighten it up at some point, but apparently he’s going to get away with it at AA.

2:25
Farhandrew Zaidman: Are we on an inexorable march toward having 13 pitchers each throw 2-3 innings every other game, or has the death of the starting pitcher been greatly exaggerated?

2:26
Brendan Gawlowski: I don’t think it’ll quite reach that point but we’re going to keep heading that direction until the league incentivizes teams to do something else.

2:26
Roger Clemens: what do you mean about the bat speed in the model

2:27
Brendan Gawlowski: There’s a gap between how savant and most teams track bat speed — which is peak bat velocity, or bat velocity at contact, or what have you — and how scouts have traditionally evaluated bat speed — which is more like 85% time from launch to contact and 15% bat velocity.

2:28
Brendan Gawlowski: No scout in the world would have given Luis Arraez 20 bat speed

2:28
Brendan Gawlowski: But he has 20 bat velocity

2:28
Brendan Gawlowski: Both are useful and it’s an area where scouts and analysts can talk past each other in my experience.

2:28
Don Caglianone: is Fraser Ellard the right guy you’re thinking of? the lefty CHW reliever who threw 41 big league innings and then retired?

2:28
Brendan Gawlowski: That’s the guy

2:28
Steve O: Spencer Jones had a 51.4 K% and an 8.1 BB% in his first 8 games in really cold weather. Then a 25.5 K% and a 13.8 BB% in 23 games since then.

2:29
Brendan Gawlowski: He does this, I don’t think it’s weather related. You’re just going to have to live with the hot and cold streaks.

2:29
Keith: Have you gotten a look at the Red Sox complex guys? Are any of Soto, Ramos, Rivas or Delzine looking like future top 100 guys?

2:29
Brendan Gawlowski: Soto is going to be there soon, possibly as soon as we do the list.

2:29
The Actor for Al Pacino: Most prominent prospect “archetype” that you are generally wary of? For example mine is the massive, lanky athlete with strikeout problems. I know, I know, “stay on the athletes”, but high strikeout rates in low-level affiliated ball just don’t do it for me

2:30
Brendan Gawlowski: The Schreck/Roden corner types

2:30
Brendan Gawlowski: A good approach is not a carrying tool

2:30
Keith: Thanks for all the team updates! Any guys from lists that have already been completed that are catching your eye as potential 50 grade/top 100 guys?

2:32
Brendan Gawlowski: Luke Stevenson, Robert Arias, TGA, Sirota, Alvarez, Hartman all worth a look off the top of my head. I’m sure there are others.

2:32
Brendan Gawlowski: Bremner just gave up a missile of a double on a slider. Pitch needs work.

2:32
Sandwich: If a good approach isn’t a carrying tool, it is at least a “round up” trait, right?

2:33
Brendan Gawlowski: It can be, especially if it’s actually a good approach vs. an approach that works in the minors but doesn’t in MLB. Can be hard to separate those two at times.

2:34
Brendan Gawlowski: But also, you can have a legitimately good approach but if you don’t have much power or a good hit tool it doesn’t matter much.

2:34
Brendan Gawlowski: Shit, Bremner leaving with the trainer.

2:34
G: Is there any reason for Seth Hernandez to still be in low-a at this point?

2:35
Brendan Gawlowski: Proximity to the complex?

2:35
Oneear: Is Yilber ready to be called up?

2:35
Brendan Gawlowski: Yes

2:36
Ryan: How much can read into Arizona and Florida complex stats? What should be looking at most as an indicator that a player could be a guy

2:36
Brendan Gawlowski: Huge grains of salt. It’s not irrelevant but we’re mostly looking for athletes/projectability down there.

2:37
Brendan Gawlowski: Yolfran Castillo had a 74 wRC+ in the ACL last year and we put him on the Top 100

2:38
Brendan Gawlowski: Angel Arredondo was better than league average as an age-appropriate player with good strikeout and walk numbers and he didn’t make the Rangers list.

2:38
UF Gates: I feel like Tuesday early day games is kind of strange, I’m so used to my local minor league teams doing them on Wednesdays or Thursday if anything. Maybe an east coast thing?

2:39
Brendan Gawlowski: Sometimes there’s a stadium conflict. Everett high schools, for instance, have priority over the Aquasox

2:39
J: How do you even go about evaluating whether a player could have a good approach in MLB? Presumably they are heavily incentivized to adopt an approach that leads to present results even if it’s sub-optimal against MLB pitchers; however, it’s possible they can adapt when the incentives change. Seems like a headache to disentangle.

2:40
Brendan Gawlowski: First and foremost, I want to see them pull the trigger on pitches they can drive. Ideally they’re also swinging at strikes and laying off slop.

2:40
Brendan Gawlowski: If you’re in A ball and not ready for 2-0 fastballs down the middle, I don’t care how much you’re walking, really

2:40
Jarvis: Why did Bremner get pulled?

2:41
Brendan Gawlowski: Not sure, wasn’t holding anything or in obvious discomfort but leaving with the trainer is never a good sign

2:41
Big Buckston: How difficult is it to teach a guy to lift the ball to access game power? In recent years we’ve seen Maikel Garcia learn to do it, but guys like Ke’Bryan Hayes and Brett Baty never really did.

2:41
Brendan Gawlowski: Wash voice: it’s incredibly hard

2:41
NFP: Are you guys going to normalize EVs in leagues with (evidently) hot baseballs?

2:41
Brendan Gawlowski: It would be nice if the baseballs didn’t change all the time.

2:43
DJ: Is there a current prospect that comes to mind with an approach you’re not bought into working at the MLB level?

2:43
Brendan Gawlowski: Approaches can change, and so with the caveat that I have not dug into him enough to say how his looks this year… I didn’t like Jaison Chourio’s last year.

2:44
UF Gates: Minor league teams not having priority to the ballpark is kind of wild, is it because the stadium is perhaps city-owned? Do you have an estimate for how many teams this is the case off the top of your head? It almost feels like how the Vancouver Canucks don’t have their own dedicated practice facility

2:44
Brendan Gawlowski: No idea. Eugene doesn’t either. It’s a bad place to scout because if a Duck walk on wants to take BP on the field, he can do it, even if it means the minor leaguers can’t get on the field until game time

2:45
Joey Gallo: Even I’m frightened by what Blake Mitchell is doing right now

2:45
Brendan Gawlowski: Fair. 69% TTO lol

2:46
The Actor for Al Pacino: In your estimation with minor league contraction and some reforms with minor leaguers now collectively bargaining, is the quality-of-life for the typical minor leaguer substantially better? Or more only marginally so?

2:46
Brendan Gawlowski: Pretty significantly imo.

2:46
Oneear: Follow up on Yilber: Is he ever going to be a starter?

2:46
Brendan Gawlowski: I would guess not

2:48
Farhandrew Zaidman: K%-BB% remains the single most predictive (public) stat we have. Have teams figured out better, proprietary ones? If so, what’s keeping the public from catching up?

2:49
Brendan Gawlowski: Not sure, but teams don’t have as much need for a silver bullet stat

2:49
Greg: It seems to me that the majority of drafted prospects either show 50+ grade potential in their 1st year or get relegated to being roster fodder rather than slowly growing their skills from say 40 fv to 60 fv over 3 or 4 years in the minors. I would love to hear a story about a unicorn player who is/did grow/ing their skills/ fv over multiple years rather than “man we drafted this guy and he just rakes”.

2:50
Brendan Gawlowski: It sort of depends on whether you’re looking at it from an FV perspective or if you’re just grading the player based on what you think he can do at maturity.

2:51
Brendan Gawlowski: Dylan Beavers moved relatively slowly for a college bat, and his FV changed throughout that process, but I’m not sure his scouting report really did

2:51
Brendan Gawlowski: if that makes sense

2:51
Free Luca Tresh: Trade me!

2:51
Brendan Gawlowski: You really are in the wrong place

2:51
Avilas Angels: What do you make of Max Clark having some struggles in spring training and recently on simple fly balls?  Lack of focus?  Do you believe he still projects to a positive defensive centerfielder?

2:52
Brendan Gawlowski: I know the AZ sky is brutal but I’m not sure if Florida has the same dynamic

2:53
Brendan Gawlowski: Clark’s reads were a work in progress last year too

2:53
Brandon: Is it crazy to ask for DSL updates already? Any word on guys from this past class sticking out?

2:54
Brendan Gawlowski: I’m sure guys are growing/developing in relevant ways down there but really tough to evaluate it without any games going on yet.

2:54
Roldy Ropher: Is Roldy Brito offensively the next Ozzie Albies?

2:54
Brendan Gawlowski: I’d be (pleasantly) surprised if he grew into that much power.

2:55
Umps with six-pack ABS: Speaking of Yolfran, do you see any meaningful gains towards power in his physical dev yet?

2:55
Brendan Gawlowski: Hard hit rate is up from 22% to 33%, which is nice.

2:56
Rob A: Can’t help but think Eldridge could have used a couple more months at AAA. I know we expect some development at the MLB level – are teams organized to support this during the transition

2:56
Brendan Gawlowski: Teams are much more willing to live with the growing pains relative to 20 years ago.

2:56
Brendan Gawlowski: In his specific case, I worry about him getting enough AB’s.

2:56
Peter: When do you think George Lombard could be realistically called up?

2:57
Brendan Gawlowski: Once you’re in Triple-A you’re theoretically an injury and a hot streak away

2:57
Brendan Gawlowski: Maybe don’t even need the hot streak

2:58
Keith: Alternatively are there any players you 50’d, where you’ve already seen enough to back off this year?

2:59
Brendan Gawlowski: Not really. There are guys that James/Eric like more than me who I haven’t moved on (and absolutely vice versa, I don’t think Eric would have ranked or be pushing Laz, for just one example)

2:59
Dirk: Think Jesus Rodriguez will succeed as super utility type for the Giants?

2:59
Brendan Gawlowski: yeah, I like him, fun player. Curious to see how much he catches.

3:00
Cyanocitta: First time visiting, just a couple of quick questions re: Jays prospects. Sean Keys (AA) and Arjun Nimmala (just promoted to AA) have been making some Jays fans dream as to the outlook for the 40-man in 2027. I realize that we still reside in the land of small sample sizes, but has either prospect materially changed their FV projections thus far in 2026?

3:00
Brendan Gawlowski: No but I feel a little bit better about both of their chances of reaching the grades I projected.

3:01
Dustin: Is this going to be a lost year for Roman Anthony? Can’t write him off yet but trending poorly. Any concerns for you going forward? 30-100 type guy?

3:01
Brendan Gawlowski: 30 games.

3:01
Jon: Is Brett Squires a guy maybe?

3:01
Brendan Gawlowski: Maybe an up-down guy

3:02
Arathorn: Any sense on which skills are most teachable vs. those which are most innate?

3:03
Brendan Gawlowski: Framing is a good example of something you can develop pretty reliably. The hand-eye coordination that feeds bat-to-ball skill is much more innate. Most skills fall between those extremes.

3:03
Sully: former top prospect Marco Luciano (24, now playing 2B) is crushing it early in AA Somerset. Not too late for a revival, right?

3:03
Brendan Gawlowski: he’s a big leaguer playing in Double-A, he should be crushing it

3:04
Eminor3rd: Any revised thoughts on Noah Schultz after his first few MLB starts?

3:04
Brendan Gawlowski: Huge upside, need to stay patient on the strike throwing. No real change to the report.

3:04
GB: any change to the evaluation on lombard?

3:05
Brendan Gawlowski: Another where I more feel better about his odds of getting to where we projected than a case where it looks like he’s broken out and unlocked something new.

3:05
Brendan Gawlowski: At least at the plate; I haven’t dove into the defense at all, so if he’s suddenly rangier or something I wouldn’t really know.

3:06
Guest: any thoughts on the first month of Yhoiker Fajardo and Tai Peete in Peoria?

3:06
Brendan Gawlowski: No thoughts on Fajardo; glad Peete is getting to his power more often, more and more concerned that he’s got a 20 hit tool though.

3:06
Brendan Gawlowski: Worth staying patient, freaky athlete

3:06
Brendan Gawlowski: no need to rush him or jump to conclusions. Let it play out.

3:07
Alex: Reports are that Liam Doyle’s been working on the development of a breaking ball in AA to the detriment of his stats. This exemplifies one of the many issues with scouting the stat line. How do scouts use stats for prospects given this? And is there any cause for concern with Doyle given his start, or does he still look like his 55 FV in the FanGraphs preseason report in the long term?

3:07
Brendan Gawlowski: You’ve touched on one of the benefits of scouting and how it’s a nice supplement to the data.

3:08
Brendan Gawlowski: Scouts don’t really (or shouldn’t really) be making their judgments on the metrics. Ideally they’re learning specifically about what Doyle’s trying to do with his slider and factoring that into their long-term projection.

3:11
Mike: What about Jackson Holliday’s profile has not translated to the majors so far? I was super impressed by his minor league plate discipline and performance.

3:11
Brendan Gawlowski: Hard to walk 20% of the time with fringy/average power

3:12
Brendan Gawlowski: A lot of the things that people liked about Holliday are still there but he debuted so young and was not as physical or toolsy as most of the other guys that wind up toward the top of prospect lists.

3:12
Matthew: Drew Romo has gone yard three times since you mentioned your overscouting of his potential to develop power. Are you a master motivator?

3:13
Brendan Gawlowski: Let’s revisit that question if I can will Benny Montgomery into an average hit tool

3:14
Brendan Gawlowski: The timing on Romo was great though

3:14
Ryan: Any thoughts on Kayson Cunningham’s start. Is there any power/speed projection there?

3:15
Brendan Gawlowski: Performing well, you’d like to see a little more over the fence power, but the consistency of quality contact is obviously a great sign. I’ve heard that the defense still looks pretty bad from scouts who have seen him.

3:16
Brendan Gawlowski: Tracking from the list, essentially, not much to change there yet.

3:16
We Got Jaden McDaniels: What’s your favorite minor league ballpark, and why is it Funko Park in Everett?

3:16
Brendan Gawlowski: Ashville’s or Ron Tonkin (rip).

3:17
Brendan Gawlowski: Maybe OKC’s or Albuquerque. Anywhere where you can get a lot of triples or hustle doubles is good by me.

3:17
Robbie: Bremner left today due to illness, so that’s good that it’s nothing serious.

3:17
Brendan Gawlowski: Good note, thank you!

3:17
The Actor for Al Pacino: Ethan Salas seemed to generate a ton of discussion on the Padres list. I can’t think of a teenaged prospect who I’ve seen draw more polarized responses

3:19
Brendan Gawlowski: No doubt. His path is going to put a spotlight on him throughout his career. I’m a little surprised there isn’t more public enthusiasm for the 19 year old stalwart defensive catcher with a 164 wRC+ at AA.

3:19
Alex: You mentioned Eric Hartman as someone you need to look at again – what about Tate Southisene and John Gil? Atlanta has had a strong beginning to the minor league season!

3:19
Brendan Gawlowski: Both on the list.

3:19
Brendan Gawlowski: It’s a long list.

3:20
Brendan Gawlowski: The number of things I would like to do >>>>>> the number of things I can do

3:21
Sunny: Thanks for that dismissive answer!

3:21
Brendan Gawlowski: You’re welcome… But I’m honestly not sure which answer you’re referring to.

3:22
Brendan Gawlowski: Did you ask something else with a different user?

3:22
Well-Beered Englishman: Whodunnits! Michael Gilbert is a super underrated classic era mystery writer. He has one, Death in Captivity, that’s a murder mystery set in a WWII prison camp, complete with spies and a great escape. Incredible stuff. What unsung mysteries do ya got?

3:24
Brendan Gawlowski: Thank you for the recommendation. I don’t know if I have a good unsung one off the top of my head. The Coronation by Boris Akunin maybe?

3:25
The Ghost of Billy Beane: With the widespread adoption of pitch labs  and the more codified way of “tinkering” with pitches, does that make projecting pitchers more difficult? It seems that there’d be higher variance since the sport has gotten better at changing/optimizing a pitcher’s toolset.

3:25
Brendan Gawlowski: In some ways it simplifies things at the lower levels. Does he have arm strength or a path to it? Can he spin it? Is he a projectable athlete? If yes, yes, and yes, project, project, project.

3:26
Pop: Do the Padres have a lot of UDFA’s in their list because their farm is so weak or that they actually have a talent for identifying them?

3:26
Brendan Gawlowski: Little of column A, little of column B

3:26
Oaktown Blues: I ended up at a Quakes game this weekend with my in-laws. Brother in law commented on Davalillo’s physique, and I just had to read him the second half of your scouting report, which he got a kick out of. Thanks for the thorough reports!

3:27
Brendan Gawlowski: I felt a little bad about that one but there’s no avoiding it in his case.

3:27
Wallyworld: Do you find what the Braves are doing with Fuentes a bit strange? Keeping him in the pen seems to be shortsighted for a 20 year old

3:27
Brendan Gawlowski: I thought he’d be working in more of a length role, but when you have the best record in baseball and you’re pushing for a bye, there’s a good argument for just doing the things that help you win games in the here and now.

3:28
Brendan Gawlowski: And also, the careers of Sale and Crochet (and surely plenty of others that aren’t springing to mind immediately) are evidence enough that short stints early in your career don’t doom your chances of blossoming into a starter later on.

3:29
Big Buckston: Any thoughts on guys who are ostensibly good athletes, but can’t manage to be good defenders/baserunners? Thinking like Christopher Morel here

3:29
Brendan Gawlowski: Happens all the time. Instincts/feel for the game is a big part of the evaluation.

3:30
BrewCitybum: Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff both pitched out of the pen for Milwaukee early in their careers

3:31
Brendan Gawlowski: two more good ones. Seth Lugo and Clay Holmes too.

3:31
Pirates: The Pirates are on a 3 year heater in the draft: Skenes -> Griffin -> Hernandez. Is this a fluke or a sign that their player dev has cracked the code?

3:31
Brendan Gawlowski: Credit the amateur group for those

3:31
Brendan Gawlowski: The dev staff does really good work, they have plenty of wins, too

3:32
Farhandrew Zaidman: When evaluating 1B defense, what do you care about most – range, picking/scooping, arm strength, or something else?

3:33
Brendan Gawlowski: Good hands and range are up first. Scooping will get better with reps if the hands are good enough. Arm strength is a nice bonus if you can get it. Ideally you get a lefty but you work with what you have.

3:33
Erick: do you think we get any late season prospect debuts that are unexpected based on age? who has a chance? (made?, de vries? arias?)

3:33
Brendan Gawlowski: In play for all three of them.

3:34
Cyanocitta: After blazing through the DSL, Juan Sanchez is off to a difficult start in Dunedin, but Parker looks good. Is it fair to say that Parker jumps to A+ Vancouver this summer (following Nimmala in the SS pipeline), allowing Sanchez to find some meaningful time at SS in A? I realize that Sanchez, and perhaps Parker to a lesser extent, may fit better at 3B in the long run, but this still may make sense as a value-maximization exercise…

3:35
Brendan Gawlowski: Parker is hitting .200 with a 26% walk rate. I like him, I’m still optimistic long term, but let’s not start booking flights just yet.

3:35
The Actor for Al Pacino: How much do potential off-the-field red flags play into your scouting evaluations? Not a fun topic to talk about but probably relevant for some prospects

3:36
Brendan Gawlowski: I killed a small handful of guys in my reports for makeup stuff.

3:36
Brendan Gawlowski: In the sense that I was a binary “no” on them

3:36
Brendan Gawlowski: In a couple of other cases, on and off field makeup stuff featured heavily in the eval

3:37
Brendan Gawlowski: But it was pretty rare

3:38
millvillemeltdown: local prospect analyst admits to murder ⁉️

3:38
Brendan Gawlowski: “nice grammar, meat”

3:39
Jon: Josh Hammonds feels like he’ll be in Quad Cities later this season. Austin Charles is doing what he needs to do in A+ to get to Double-A. Do the Royals have the shortstop pipeline working all of the sudden?

3:40
Brendan Gawlowski: I’m not all the way in on Charles. Interested, curious, certainly has a chance to exceed the projection I gave him

3:40
Brendan Gawlowski: There’s a scout I respect a lot who’s a big fan

3:40
Brendan Gawlowski: he definitely has his backers

3:40
Farhandrew Zaidman: On the makeup part – when does it turn from “this kid is sort of an a** hole” to “I’m all the way out because of what’s between his ears”?

3:42
Brendan Gawlowski: Criminal activity, perhaps patterns of disruptive behavior if they’re extreme enough.

3:42
Adam D.: Any feel for when the Giants list will be out?

3:42
Brendan Gawlowski: Eric proposed we tag team O’s to slay one of the beasts in the east, otherwise I’d be working on it now. So, soon, I would think.

3:43
Explain it to me like I’m 5…: Pedro Ramirez, whose power is highly questioned, has an EV of 90, yet esmerlyn Valdez, widely known as a power hitting bat, has an 88. What are scouts looking at to come to their consensus. And would max EV be a better number to project future HR totals for the casual fan?

3:44
Brendan Gawlowski: I’m more interested in max/ev90 than average. Not that it’s irrelevant but especially when they’re in the lower levels, I want to think about the upside more than the present

3:45
Brendan Gawlowski: Alright folks, I’ve got to shut it down here today. Thanks as always for the questions, we’ll do it again next week. Read a mystery and be well.





Brendan covers prospects and the minor leagues for FanGraphs. Previously he worked as a Pro Scout for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

6 Comments
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drewsylvaniaMember since 2019
9 days ago

It’s funny that someone who only commented once claimed there was a dismissive answer, lol

sandwiches4everMember since 2019
9 days ago
Reply to  drewsylvania

Maybe the Luciano question, which, to be honest, seems like an obvious response to me — yeah, it’s nice that he isn’t bombing out in AA, but I’m gonna need to see more than a few weeks of Somerset ABs before I consider him a realistic option.

EddyMember since 2024
9 days ago
Reply to  drewsylvania

BG definitely has a tendency to answer a few of his questions in a way that doesn’t really get to the core of what the reader asked. Way more than EL.

Bob Nutting Scouting Dept.: Where does Anthony Volpe land on the latest top 100?

Brendan Gawlowski: A good reminder that this game moves fast. A year ago, Volpe and his torpedo bat were breaking out. Colson Montgomery couldn’t make contact in AAA and was in the complex.

It’s okay to engage in hypotheticals, BG!

formerly matt wMember since 2025
9 days ago
Reply to  Eddy

I took that question the same way as BG did–not as a serious request for a hypothetical, but as a joking reminder of how fast the game moves.

Last edited 9 days ago by formerly matt w
Uncle SpikeMember since 2020
8 days ago
Reply to  Eddy

Brandon answers A LOT of questions which I personally appreciate. Could he go into more detail or some of the more nuanced ones, sure, but I’m sure some of these things will take more research and contemplating on his part. I’m OK with sacrificing a little bit of quality to get answers on a wider variety of questions, in a chat forum at least.

basically baseballMember since 2024
7 days ago
Reply to  Eddy

We can assume you were the whiner.