Is the NL East Race Already Over?
I don’t think many would quibble with me too harshly if I characterized the last two seasons for the Atlanta Braves as dreary disappointments. In 2024, the Braves were generally believed to challenge the Dodgers for the title of best team in baseball. This held true for about six weeks, but for the rest of the season, they suffered myriad injuries and played .500 ball, barely hanging onto a wild card spot before quickly being dispatched by the Padres. Going into 2025 with the hope for a healthier, bounce-back season, nothing of the sort happened. Atlanta finished at 76-86, the franchise’s first losing season since 2017. Expectations coming into this season were more muted. While the Braves were expected to be competitive (the FanGraphs projections were more optimistic than ZiPS), the excitement was certainly dampened compared to the previous two years.
So far in 2026, the Braves have defied the pundits and computers, dominating the NL East and sporting the best record in baseball, at 25-11. Their 8 1/2-game lead in the NL East isn’t an insurmountable one, but it’s quite impressive for this point in the season. No other division leader has more than a two-game lead right now! As crucially, the two teams expected to be Atlanta’s fiercest competition, the Phillies and Mets, are a bit farther behind, at 9 1/2 and 11 1/2 games back, respectively. Naturally, the success of the Braves and the struggles of Philadelphia and New York have changed how the final standings project to shake out.
| Team | W | L | GB | Pct | Div% | WC% | Playoff% | WS Win% | 80th | 20th |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Braves | 93 | 69 | — | .574 | 68.4% | 17.2% | 85.6% | 9.7% | 100.8 | 85.7 |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 85 | 77 | 8 | .525 | 20.8% | 31.9% | 52.7% | 4.8% | 92.3 | 78.0 |
| New York Mets | 79 | 83 | 14 | .488 | 5.8% | 17.5% | 23.3% | 1.3% | 85.6 | 71.9 |
| Miami Marlins | 76 | 86 | 17 | .469 | 4.8% | 14.9% | 19.6% | 0.6% | 84.6 | 70.0 |
| Washington Nationals | 67 | 95 | 26 | .414 | 0.2% | 0.9% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 73.5 | 59.5 |
That’s quite a sea change from the start of the season. Of course, Atlanta isn’t projected to keep playing this well the rest of the way. We’re only a little over a month into the season, and we should expect some regression from the Braves as they play more games.
But just because things will normalize some does not mean that nothing has changed. I’m not convinced that Dominic Smith is a 157 wRC+ guy, or that Martín Pérez is the first person in history to figure out the secret to maintaining a sub-.200 BABIP, but there are other things about this team that I’m quite ready to believe. Matt Olson has had very big seasons before, and when healthy, Chris Sale is one of the best pitchers in baseball. Ozzie Albies isn’t going to hit .330 for the season, but he did amass the second-most WAR as a second baseman from 2018 to 2023, behind only Jose Altuve, so we have seen enough from him in the past to believe this is a true comeback campaign rather than an early-season mirage.
To get a better idea of what’s real and what’s fake, here are the ZiPS projections for the hitters currently on Atlanta’s Depth Charts roster, compared to their preseason projections.
| Name | Rest-of-Season wRC+ | Preseason wRC+ | Diff | MLB Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jim Jarvis | 79.0 | 65.6 | 13.4 | 6 |
| Ozzie Albies | 107.9 | 97.6 | 10.4 | 16 |
| Matt Olson | 131.2 | 122.3 | 8.8 | 24 |
| Dominic Smith | 99.1 | 91.9 | 7.2 | 34 |
| Drake Baldwin | 130.2 | 124.6 | 5.6 | 48 |
| Jorge Mateo | 77.9 | 72.4 | 5.4 | 52 |
| Michael Harris II | 114.1 | 109.4 | 4.7 | 61 |
| Mauricio Dubón | 86.0 | 82.1 | 4.0 | 75 |
| Chadwick Tromp | 61.0 | 60.5 | 0.5 | 190 |
| Kyle Farmer | 76.7 | 76.3 | 0.4 | 195 |
| Ha-Seong Kim | 95.7 | 95.7 | 0.0 | 260 |
| José Azocar | 79.8 | 80.7 | -0.9 | 408 |
| Sean Murphy | 103.4 | 104.8 | -1.4 | 427 |
| Eli White | 87.2 | 90.1 | -3.0 | 498 |
| Austin Riley | 116.1 | 122.5 | -6.3 | 587 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. | 147.7 | 156.6 | -8.9 | 613 |
| Mike Yastrzemski | 102.3 | 111.6 | -9.3 | 618 |
Even being skeptical of a few players, there are a lot more advancers than decliners here. Of all major league hitters currently projected to get plate appearances over the rest of the season, the Braves have nine of the top 100, more than you would expect from random chance. Only three players — Austin Riley, Ronald Acuña Jr., and Mike Yastrzemski — have taken big hits, but they are still projected to be real contributors, though I’m a bit worried about Riley personally.
How does that compare to other teams? Using the rest-of-season Depth Charts playing time projections and applying both the up-to-date projections and the preseason ones to that projected playing time, we can get an idea of which teams have had something change and which teams have not.
| Name | Rest-of-Season wRC+ | Preseason wRC+ | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Braves | 112.2 | 108.9 | 3.3 |
| Astros | 107.5 | 105.3 | 2.1 |
| Cardinals | 100.9 | 99.3 | 1.6 |
| Yankees | 115.8 | 114.4 | 1.4 |
| Cubs | 111.4 | 110.1 | 1.3 |
| Guardians | 102.3 | 101.1 | 1.2 |
| Tigers | 106.0 | 105.0 | 1.0 |
| Pirates | 103.8 | 103.2 | 0.6 |
| Marlins | 100.1 | 99.5 | 0.6 |
| White Sox | 98.2 | 97.7 | 0.4 |
| Nationals | 94.9 | 94.6 | 0.3 |
| Rays | 99.3 | 99.2 | 0.1 |
| Diamondbacks | 102.6 | 102.5 | 0.1 |
| Dodgers | 120.3 | 120.3 | 0.1 |
| Brewers | 103.9 | 103.9 | 0.0 |
| Mariners | 112.2 | 112.9 | -0.7 |
| Angels | 97.9 | 98.5 | -0.7 |
| Rockies | 91.5 | 92.3 | -0.7 |
| Royals | 101.9 | 102.7 | -0.8 |
| Blue Jays | 106.2 | 107.1 | -0.9 |
| Orioles | 112.9 | 113.9 | -0.9 |
| Twins | 104.6 | 105.9 | -1.3 |
| Athletics | 108.6 | 110.1 | -1.5 |
| Reds | 99.8 | 101.5 | -1.8 |
| Rangers | 105.4 | 107.3 | -1.9 |
| Phillies | 106.8 | 108.7 | -1.9 |
| Padres | 107.5 | 109.7 | -2.2 |
| Red Sox | 101.2 | 103.5 | -2.3 |
| Giants | 104.3 | 107.3 | -3.0 |
| Mets | 110.3 | 114.4 | -4.0 |
Atlanta’s offensive projection has improved more than that of any other team, so it isn’t just smoke and mirrors producing these results. At the risk of veering off topic, the 14-22 Astros’ having the second-most improved offensive projection is quite an awkward data point for the team’s struggling pitching staff. Conversely, even if you’re generally confident that the Phillies and Mets (and Red Sox) will right the ship, the projections are less optimistic than they were in March.
Let’s repeat the exercise with the pitchers:
| Name | Rest-of-Season ERA+ | Preseason ERA+ | Diff | MLB Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dylan Lee | 130.0 | 117.9 | 12.0 | 5 |
| Robert Suarez | 124.2 | 116.9 | 7.3 | 13 |
| Raisel Iglesias | 124.9 | 119.6 | 5.3 | 26 |
| James Karinchak | 102.8 | 99.3 | 3.5 | 58 |
| Bryce Elder | 97.5 | 96.1 | 1.4 | 137 |
| Hurston Waldrep | 98.6 | 97.3 | 1.2 | 149 |
| Daysbel Hernández | 93.6 | 93.0 | 0.7 | 182 |
| Didier Fuentes | 97.8 | 98.5 | -0.7 | 282 |
| Spencer Schwellenbach | 123.6 | 124.5 | -0.9 | 296 |
| Dylan Dodd | 100.0 | 101.0 | -1.0 | 307 |
| Carlos Carrasco | 75.9 | 77.2 | -1.3 | 347 |
| AJ Smith-Shawver | 104.9 | 106.5 | -1.6 | 355 |
| Hunter Stratton | 95.0 | 96.6 | -1.6 | 363 |
| Anthony Molina | 83.4 | 85.8 | -2.3 | 421 |
| Martín Pérez | 96.1 | 99.1 | -3.0 | 459 |
| Victor Mederos | 77.5 | 80.6 | -3.1 | 481 |
| Rolddy Muñoz | 85.8 | 89.6 | -3.8 | 522 |
| Danny Young | 96.3 | 100.5 | -4.2 | 537 |
| Tyler Kinley | 101.0 | 105.3 | -4.2 | 534 |
| Ian Hamilton | 110.2 | 115.1 | -4.9 | 558 |
| Spencer Strider | 104.1 | 109.3 | -5.2 | 579 |
| Hayden Harris | 98.3 | 104.0 | -5.7 | 601 |
| Chris Sale | 124.3 | 130.4 | -6.1 | 613 |
| JR Ritchie | 87.9 | 95.6 | -7.7 | 670 |
| Grant Holmes | 93.3 | 102.9 | -9.6 | 712 |
| Reynaldo López | 110.8 | 120.8 | -10.0 | 714 |
| Aaron Bummer | 94.0 | 111.5 | -17.5 | 755 |
ZiPS is confident that Atlanta’s offensive improvements are legitimate, but it’s considerably less so when it comes to the pitching staff. I’ve already made a crack about Pérez, but ZiPS is also skeptical about Bryce Elder’s strides. Overall, it still sees the rotation as risky, though it is more bullish on several of the team’s relievers.
(For those curious, the most improved hitter and pitcher in baseball, from a projection standpoint, is Chase DeLauter and Mason Miller, respectively.)
| Team | Rest-of-Season ERA+ | Preseason ERA+ | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
| Padres | 102.9 | 100.3 | 2.5 |
| Yankees | 104.3 | 101.9 | 2.4 |
| Phillies | 115.5 | 113.3 | 2.2 |
| Brewers | 105.5 | 103.3 | 2.2 |
| Dodgers | 111.4 | 109.6 | 1.8 |
| Blue Jays | 109.2 | 107.4 | 1.8 |
| Mets | 105.0 | 103.3 | 1.7 |
| Marlins | 101.3 | 99.8 | 1.5 |
| Angels | 95.2 | 94.0 | 1.3 |
| White Sox | 91.6 | 90.4 | 1.2 |
| Pirates | 111.5 | 110.5 | 1.1 |
| Rockies | 96.5 | 95.5 | 1.0 |
| Tigers | 107.8 | 107.0 | 0.8 |
| Cubs | 100.2 | 99.6 | 0.5 |
| Mariners | 104.7 | 104.5 | 0.1 |
| Rangers | 95.5 | 95.4 | 0.0 |
| Twins | 102.7 | 102.8 | -0.2 |
| Braves | 106.9 | 107.2 | -0.4 |
| Giants | 105.2 | 105.6 | -0.4 |
| Guardians | 109.4 | 109.9 | -0.5 |
| Reds | 96.3 | 96.8 | -0.5 |
| Diamondbacks | 106.8 | 107.4 | -0.6 |
| Orioles | 101.6 | 102.3 | -0.7 |
| Astros | 104.3 | 105.3 | -1.0 |
| Athletics | 94.2 | 95.2 | -1.0 |
| Rays | 105.1 | 106.3 | -1.2 |
| Cardinals | 97.7 | 99.0 | -1.4 |
| Nationals | 89.8 | 91.1 | -1.4 |
| Royals | 101.0 | 102.6 | -1.6 |
| Red Sox | 108.5 | 110.6 | -2.1 |
It’s kind of funny to see the Phillies so high up on this list, but they have allowed a .349 BABIP over 35 games, a freakishly high number that can’t possibly be sustained. One can see why the Yankees and Padres have been so strong in the early going, though their success is a story for another day.
Is the NL East race actually over? The projections and Betteridge’s law of headlines say no. But it is true that the Braves have flipped the script. It’s not as over for the Mets or Phillies as the vibes indicate, but if they are going to mount a comeback, they better start fairly soon. If not, they’ll quickly run out of calendar.
Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.
Yes they won’t stay this dominant but their offense has been monstrous with their big names other than Acuna and Riley being locked in. They’re also getting Kim back so they can move Dubon around and eat into Yas’ playing time if he doesn’t figure things out. They’ve also gotten Dom Smith of 2020 to return and his xwoba backs up what he’s doing. I don’t buy into Perez and I’m not sure what Strider is but they’re a top tier team in a division with no real challengers. If any team in the nl can knock off the Dodgers if they(the Braves), are healthy it’s them.
Cubs look pretty great in the early going, seems like those three teams are setting the pace for the rest of the NL.
Yeah true even with tons of pitching injuries they’re killing it and having three walk offs in a row is crazy.
Phillies have both a higher pitching BABIP than any team has had over a full season the past 5 years (by a LOT) AND a lower hitting BABIP than any team over the past 5 years. It has been quite ugly at times, but i simply can’t believe either of those are sustainable.
The offense is still very unimpressive.
Phillies are middle of the pack in hard hit % and old/slow. I wonder if that explains BABIP struggles.
Pitching is harder to figure out because they arent giving up hard contact. However, they’re bottom 10 defense efficiency.
Could just be they aren’t athletic enough?
I don’t think they’re as bad as their record, but a -31 run differential through 37 games (almost 25% of a season) isn’t all bad luck. Baseball Reference’s SRS score, which is supposed to factor in quality of opponents NCAA football style, has them bottom 10.
Wild card is definitely possible but I don’t see them catching Atlanta at all without a Braves collapse.
Part of their pitching concerns have been control from the looks of it. Luzardo and Nola both have pitch heat maps all over the place compared to previous years. That plus them not getting starters beyond 5 innings indicates they’re getting behind in counts, likely followed by them getting wrecked when trying to compensate for that and making mistakes.
The Playoff Odds page has the Braves at 82.8% to win the division as of this morning, so ZIPS is actually the less “optimistic” model at 68.4%. Even if we split the difference and call it 75% the race seems about as “over” as you usually see by early May.
Before the season I figured injuries would be the difference in the three-team race, and they’ve definitely been a contributing factor here — but sucking (= players radically underperforming their projections) has actually been a bigger one. Just a bunch of busted aging curves, post-prospects establishing a new low for their apparent true talent level, etc. on the Mets and Phillies, while the Braves seem, true to form, to have scouted their own players a little more intelligently.
The reason why the Braves likely look worse on ZiPS is that it simulates injuries rather than relying on depth charts playing time projections. And as good as the Braves have been their depth is awful. One more injury before Kim gets back could be an enormous blow to the offense and the rotation is already relying on guys who weren’t expected to be good.
At some point soon the Braves might bank enough wins that matter though.
I think you mean their remaining depth. Overall, their lineup depth considered from the perspective of the end of the offseason (when the Kim, Murphy, and Profar absences were not known) has been stellar, mostly attributable to Mauricio Dubón, Dominic Smith, and Jorge Mateo. But yeah, like probably every team, their third-line depth does not have a lot of quality players.
As for starting pitchers, their second-line depth has been mediocre by underlying metrics but has gotten excellent results. Generally, you prefer that to the reverse, especially when you hope to move some of the overperformers out of rotation slots as the team gets healthier. Now that Strider is back, Waldrep appears to be the closest to returning.
Yeah, that’s right. But I think we are reaching the point in the season where the wins and losses already in the bank are substantial enough to offset the expected mean regression all the way around the division.
Their depth is not awful.
Dubon is a fantastic utility/bench guy. They have two solid-to-great catchers. The pitching depth is thin but that’s because of an insane amount of injuries. Calling their depth awful is weird.
Dubon and two quality catchers is sweet, but I gathered the sad one was referring to the Smith, Mateo, White, Farmer, Jarvis, Alvarez cohort.
ATL has almost notoriously produced really good players from their minors that weren’t hyped prospects. They may have a gem they can call up.
They’ve also done all this without their stars producing and injuries. If Acuna and Strider even get to like 85% of their previous performance, I dont think it’ll even matter if they don’t.
I am super high on John Gil, but he’s only in High A. I don’t think he debuts before 2027.
I would argue that Dubon is not “depth” when the Braves’ pitchers have pitched 338 innings and Dubon has been in the field for 319 of them. That just your starter.
I would reiterate this:
Before Kim gets back is the key part here. Aside from catcher (where their depth is legitimately good), the depth is Kyle Farmer (career wRC+ of 86), Jorge Mateo (76), Eli White (68), and Nacho Alvarez (63).
Dubon was not a planned starter on this team. Also, Kim’s playing in Norfolk this week. He could easily be back before Acuña. I don’t think one injury is going to decimate this team right now, very unlikely to be worse than losing Acuña.
The depth problem for the Braves position players is in fact a weird argument at this point. They’ve proven in dealing with myriad injuries that they had the depth. And what else can they do? At full strength now Mateo is the last guy on the bench. None of these guys have options. Any other pieces they added or could add now would create a roster crunch and a DFA in short order.
What they need is relative health from their top 6-7 players, which they didn’t have last year. But no team can reasonably handle that well.
Braves are legit. Imagine if Strider bounces back? That seems like a long shot, but I’d venture he is still going to be a positive contributor.
It is such a joy to watch Chris Sale pitch. So frustrating to have basically wasted 300 innings of sub 2.50 ERA ball the past 2 years on otherwise injured and underperforming teams. His health is arguably the single most important factor for the Braves in October considering the various question marks surrounding the SP2-5 spots
Sure, imagine wasting those innings on Vaughn Grissom!
Curious how the projections for players like Waldrep, Smith-Shawver, and Schwellenbach have changed when they haven’t yet thrown a pitch at any level.
Mostly rounding of the ER/IP.
Got to looove the Drake!
Striders next few starts are going to be. A big portion of this story. Elder is better but he’s not a sub 2.00 ERA pitcher. It’s all about homerun suppression for him. Schwellenbach’s 2nd half return is going to be just as big of a deal as Strider’s. Dan, you say you’re worried about Riley. I’m worried about Strider. The pitcher who was 100% getting people out with his stuff doesn’t have that stuff anymore.
Elder is not ace and no one thats serious thinks he is. He was arguably the worst pitcher in baseball the past 3 seasons, but he has made changes and is now an elite innings eater. His lower velocity will be less on the arm allowing for more innings and a 3.21 FIP is more than fine. Also, his xFIP (because i think his HR rate is a little low) is the same as Fried, Kirby, and Joe Ryan right now.
If he can be Miles Mikolas, that’s huge.
Agree Schwellenbach is the wildcard. He was good but overshadowed by Braves struggles. Projections expect similar production on a rate basis which would be big.
It’s too early to definitively rule out Strider’s stuff. Last year was ugly, and his one start so far wasn’t good. But it was just one start, in Colorado, with visible rehab rust, and some noticeable tweaks from last season (eg, arm slot closer to his glory days, lots of curveballs that looked quite good). Best guess is that he won’t be the same high velocity FB/slider 1-2 combo that he was in his glory days, but he could still find another route to effectiveness.
I’m just excited that the league has a Jim again. How many years has it been since we had a Jim? Was Jim Johnson the last one?
Well, there still isn’t, so long as we’re talking MLB. We had the first Bob in a long time when Bob Seymour got 83 PAs for the Rays last year, before presumably becoming the first Bob in a long time in the NPB this year.
Jarvis is playing well in AAA though it’s still hard to understand the massive change in projections.
Jim ascends!!!!
Wow, that’s true. I think the most recent Jim was Jim Adduci (2019), who I only just heard of, assuming you don’t count Jimmy Nelson (2021) or Jiman Choi (2023).
Nice try, but you can’t slip that Jim Jarvis note past us like that.
As soon as I typed that, JIM JARVIS CALLED UP TO THE SHOW
amazing!
It’s not over however it will require some things to be sorted out. Right now their bullpen and rotation is actually a mess. The offense will be fine but they need to sort out their pitching staff
Spent the whole article fighting the urge to jump to the comments and be the Betteridge’s Law of Headlines guy, good thing I read the last paragraph. I should’ve never doubted Dan.
I’d love nothing more than for Ozzie to become a monster and get a big contract to make up for his current deal. But I’m less confident than Dan on his continued production. His weak contact rate is up, his hard hit balls are in the gutter. He’s offset some of this with a lower strikeout rate and better defense, but I’m not sure he can bloop his way back to his best days.